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Few programs reflect the way the expectations game works in college basketball today better than Rick Pitino’s University of Louisville program. Big East coaches picked the Cardinals to finish eighth last season. They came in third. Twice, Louisville defeated Connecticut, the team that won the NCAA title. The Cards were the Big East Tournament runner-up.
Nice work. But it didn’t generate many high fives. Not after the Cardinals exited the NCAA Tournament with a first-round loss to Morehead State. As Pitino enters his 11th season at Louisville, that snapshot summarizes the anxiety percolating around the program. The Cardinals have been a force in the Big East, but they have not delivered in March as expected under Pitino, with only one Final Four trip in a decade.
This should be one of Pitino’s better teams, likely a top-10 group as well as a team that can win the Big East title. It should be a team that survives the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. And perhaps even the second.
Key Cardinals Stat: 8.8
The Cards ranked ninth nationally, making 8.8 3-pointers per game. With Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith back, they could be even better.
If the bench is the best motivator, Pitino won’t need to borrow from any Lou Holtz speeches this season. The Cardinals are two or three deep at all three frontcourt positions, led by small forward Kyle Kuric, who starts the season as the most dynamic walk-on in the nation.
A scholarship squeeze led Kuric to relinquish his for his senior season, even after he averaged nearly 11 points and shot 45 percent from the 3-point line. A fearless competitor, Kuric developed the confidence to trust his ability to score last season. And get this: Sometimes he shares his position with another talented walk-on — Chris Smith, who averaged 9.4 points and shot 40.4 percent from the 3-point line in his first season after transferring from Manhattan. Smith’s room and board is paid by his brother, Nuggets’ forward J.R. Smith. Chris Smith plays like he’s trying to convince the world that he’s more than simply J.R.’s baby brother.
Power forward will feature the most intense scrum for minutes on the team. Jared Swopshire started there two years ago but missed all of last season after surgery for a sports hernia. Rakeem Buckles began last season by hanging 17 points and 11 rebounds on Butler but missed 19 games with injuries. Freshman Chane Behanan is a McDonald’s All-American with a wide body and game that will remind Cardinals fans of Rodney McCray because of his fierce pursuit of rebounds.
Center is the spot that skeptics will be watching. Sophomore Gorgui Dieng averaged two blocks per game but must improve his scoring (5.7 ppg) and rebounding (4.4 rpg). Dieng, who grew up in Africa, has considerable skills but must learn to avoid silly fouls. Freshman Zach Price and junior Stephan Van Treese need to give Pitino 10 good minutes per game.
If the Cardinals have one player who must remain healthy, it is Peyton Siva, the junior point guard. Siva led the Cardinals in steals, assists and free throws made. He’s a dynamic and creative player who’s capable of scoring 15 points per game but would be happier averaging a dozen points and a half-dozen assists. His defense could use some work, but Siva is an upbeat force in the locker room. Freshman Kevin Ware will push sophomores Elisha Justice and Russ Smith for back-up minutes.
The second guard position lacks the clarity of the point with the graduation of Preston Knowles. Pitino once described Mike Marra as the best high school shooter he had ever recruited, but Marra made only 28 percent of his 3-point attempts last season. His inconsistent stroke leaves him vulnerable to losing his starting spot to freshman Wayne Blackshear, a thunderous scorer. Both Kuric and Chris Smith are capable of playing in the backcourt, too.
This is a team that has the parts to be a force in the Big East and beyond — from November into March. Eight players have started 10 games or more throughout their careers, and Blackshear and Behanan arrive as top-50 recruits with the confidence to contribute immediately. Kuric and Smith are dangerous 3-point shooters. Siva understands how to run a team and can attack the basket.
There are two questions this team must answer: Is Dieng ready to play 25-30 solid minutes per night in the Big East? And are there enough NBA-quality players, the kind of guys a team usually needs to get to the Final Four?
Big East Prediction: 3rd
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Elite Eight
Adrian Beltre has an odd way of swinging the bat. Sometimes he ends up on one knee. Other times, he's tangled up like a pretzel. So let's celebrate his quirkiness with a photo compilation of Adrian striking some of his better post-swing poses.
We don't believe Ron Zook is Irish, but we do believe he was born with the luck of an Irishman. Ron Zook is currently making over $1.5 million per year as the Head Coach of the Illinois Fighting Illini. Since he became a head coach in 2002, Ron Zook has made more than $10 million coaching college football.
He has been the head coach at the University of Florida (one of CBTN's Top 10 Rated Jobs) and the University of Illinois. These are two very attractive head coaching jobs in very attractive conferences. So, given that he has been a head coach since 2002 at two higher profile jobs, his numbers have to look pretty good don't they?
Let's find out. Below are Coach Zook's CBTN numbers from 2002-Present (rank is among active head coaches with minimum of three years experience)
|Coach||Yrs. Coached||CBTN Rating||CBTN Stars||CBTN Rank (Out of 90 Head Coaches)||Avg. Recruiting Rank|
|Ron Zook||10||48.04||42||27.10 (out of 120 teams)|
Now, let's look at his Good Hire/Bad Hire Numbers at both Florida and Illinois:
|Coach||School||WP% in Five Years Prior to Zook||WP% Under Zook||Differential|
So, at Florida Coach Zook had a negative impact of 18.51% on the Gators' winning percentage and after almost seven years at Illinois he has had a positive impact of 0.60% on the Fighting Illini's winning percentage. Now, let's move to our Overachiever/Underachiever Index. This allows us to see if Coach Zook has underachieved or overachieved given the talent he has been able to bring on board (CBTN Head Coaching Rank below indicates where Coach Zook ranked in relation to other head coaches with a minimum of two years experience during the tenure at the school listed).
|Coach||School||CBTN Avg. Recruiting Rank||CBTN Head Coaching Rank||Differential|
To say coach Zook has done less with more would be a bit of an understatement. We can't tell you the number of times we have seen people defend Coach Zook based on the fact that he is such a "great recruiter". Well, let's take a look at the numbers and see just how a great a recruiter Coach Zook really is:
|Coach||School||Avg. Recruiting Class|
So, at Florida Urban Meyer proved that Ron Zook was not only underachieving in the win/loss column, but that he was also underachieving on the recruiting side as well. At Illinois, Zook has had a 16% positive impact on recruiting compared to Ron Turner's tenure. If you aren't too familiar with Ron Turner, don't worry because you are not alone. During his eight years as head coach at Illinois, Coach Turner lost 11 games twice and at least six games in six of his eight seasons as head coach.
This is all to say that Ron Zook didn't take over a program that was known for its top recruiting. We don't know about you, but Zook's record as a recruiter doesn't quite fall under the "great" category. Finally, let's look at Ron Zook's Talent Wins/Losses Ranking:
|Coach||School||WP% w/Superior Talent||WP% w/Equivalent Talent||WP% w/Inferior Talent|
|Ron Zook||Illinois||47.62% (20-22)||20.00% (3-12)||27.78% (5-13)|
So, with equivalent and superior talent at Illinois, Ron Zook has only won 40% of the time. Just when you thought Ron Zook had turned the corner in 2011 with Illinois' first 6-0 start since the Eisenhower administration, he loses back-to-back games to a mediocre Ohio St. team and a very sub-par Purdue team. Additionally, Zook still has to play Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin this year.
From the standpoint of the numbers, it appears that Ron Zook has earned in excess of $10 million to make programs worse or keep them at their sub-par level. Just some numbers for everyone to think about.
Michigan State has been the talk of the college football world this week after beating undefeated Wisconsin with an improbable Hail Mary pass on the game’s final play. The Spartans have enjoyed a successful month with wins over Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, but now they finish the October gauntlet with a trip to Nebraska. If MSU can defeat the Cornhuskers, Mark Dantonio’s bunch would have a virtual lock on the Legends Division. Nebraska was favored by many to win the league, but Bo Pelini’s crew has looked fairly average despite the 6-1 record. With a raucous home crowd in Lincoln, the Huskers have a chance to show they are still a title contender with a victory over the red-hot Spartans.
Who wins: Nebraska or Michigan State?
Steven Lassan (@AthlonSteven)
It’s not going to be easy getting a victory in Lincoln, but I like Michigan State to knock off the Cornhuskers on Saturday. I’m interested to see how the Spartans perform in this game, especially after last week’s last-second win over Wisconsin. Can Michigan State come out with the same type of energy? Or will the Spartans come out flat? Michigan State’s defense gave up a season-high 443 yards to Wisconsin last week, but also forced three turnovers. There’s no question the Cornhuskers can run the ball with quarterback Taylor Martinez and running back Rex Burkhead. However, can they establish enough of a passing attack to keep Michigan State’s defense off balance? I’m not sure Nebraska can. Another concern for the Cornhuskers is the defense, as we still don’t know how this unit matches up without tackle Jared Crick in the lineup. The Spartans seem to have their running game back on track, which is going to be a tough test for Nebraska’s defense. This matchup with Nebraska is the last in a very difficult four-game stretch for Michigan State. If the Spartans can survive this game, they should win the Legends Division.
Memorial Stadium will be rocking on Saturday when Nebraska takes down Michigan State. Expect the Huskers to showcase underrated running back Rex Burkhead (752 yards, 10 TDs) and expose a Spartans squad that has struggled on the road this season. MSU has only played two games away from East Lansing this season — a 31–13 blowout loss at Notre Dame and an ugly 10–7 win at Ohio State. The Husker faithful are hungry for a huge Big Ten win at home. And since the Blackshirt defense won't get regular-season revenge against Wisconsin — although the Legends could play the Leaders in the inaugural Big Ten title game on Dec. 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis — this Michigan State matchup is the next best thing, since Sparty took down the Badgers in a thriller last week. MSU's bubble will burst; NU will roll.
Braden Gall (@AthlonBraden)
I know Michigan State has had a very Clemson-like three-game run with wins over Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, but I think the similarities between the Spartans and Tigers end there. Michigan State needed some random and extremely rare plays to beat the Badgers last week — try a blocked field goal, blocked punt, safety, two Russell Wilson interceptions and a key third-down untouched fumble. Nebraska is at home and has its power rushing attack on cruise control while Sparty gave up a season worst 220 yards rushing last week (128 was the previous high). Michigan State's luck runs out this weekend.
Patrick Snow (@AthlonSnowman)
I was a huge Nebraska proponent coming into this season, but the defense has struggled mightily. Despite the great crowd in Lincoln, I’ll take Michigan State to stay hot and remain perfect in the Big Ten. I like the Spartans’ balance on offense, and the top ten-rated MSU defense should be able to slow down the one-dimensional NU offense just enough to pull out the win. I expect Nebraska to play better down the stretch, but it’s difficult for me to ignore that the Huskers’ defense has already allowed four 100-yard rushers on the season. Even though MSU has not played well away from East Lansing, I think quarterback Kirk Cousins and crew will be able to play time-of-possession football and leave Lincoln with a close victory.
Cincinnati Bengals running back Cedric Benson has finally been handed down his suspension and it has gone from three games down to just this week’s game at Seattle.
Weeks ago, the suspension was supposed to be three games...and it was supposed to commence weeks ago as well. That left fantasy owners either scrambling to potentially replace Benson in their lineups with Bernard Scott or other fantasy owners simply picking up Scott to bogart the back up for themselves.
My advice to both types of owners: just leave it be.
Why do we think when a starting running back goes out that his back up will just slide right in and have fantasy value himself? He's a back up for a reason.
And particularly in the Bengals' case, neither the starter nor back ups have done anything of significance this season. Benson has 62.7 fantasy points through six games — 10.45 points per game. Scott has barely sniffed any action — he has 18.3 fantasy points total over six games — this season and is not seen as an every-down back by his team to begin with.
So let other fantasy owners add and play Bernard Scott to their lineups this week against a Seattle team No. 11 in the NFL against the run and seventh best against fantasy running backs having allowed just four scores and no back to reach 100 yards. Rashard Mendenhall (13.8), Isaac Reedman (11.5) and Michael Turner (20.8) all reached double digits thanks to touchdowns, not yards as all three were held to 70 yards or less. It took Montario Hardesty 33 carries for Montario Hardesty to reach 95 yards on Sunday. He added two catches for 27 yards.
Benson is 13th in the league in rushing yards per game with (76.3) despite being No. 5 in attempts at 19.5. He has just two touchdowns and five catches for 24 yards leaves him as the 22nd-best fantasy running back in the Athlon format through six weeks.
When we first thought the suspension was going to happen — after Week 3 — Scott had 23 yards, no catches and with the addition of Brandon Tate, was no longer part of the return game. In the three games following, Scott’s rushed 22 times for 62 yards (3.1 YPC) with one score, and added five catches for 13 yards after having no catches the first three weeks.
For a Bengals team that is 22nd in the league in total offense at 326.5 yards per game, and 21st in rushing offense (105.3 YPG), I find it hard to believe Scott is the one that will get that turned around in a week. He averaged 6.1 and 4.5 touches per game his first two seasons. This season, under new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, Scott is averaging 4.5 touches.
Add all this in with the fact that Brian Leonard is still there, probably in a time share to make up for the loss of Benson, and the emergence of receivers A.J. Green and Jerome Simpson and tight end Jermaine Gresham, where will Scott fit in for just one week?
Bottom line: Don't waste your time with Scott if the Bengals aren't making time for him themselves.
Click here for our Week 8 Waiver Wire.
By Corby A. Yarbrough @Corby_Yarbrough on Twitter
by Nathan Rush
The Oakland Raiders did not overpay for Carson Palmer — they made the right move by trading for him.
Forget the 8-for-21, 116-yard, three-INT, one-pick-six performance in the second half of a 28–0 loss to the archrival Kansas City Chiefs in Palmer’s home debut. If Chris Johnson can get a six-game “preseason” after his contract holdout, then Palmer can get a two-quarter warm up refresher course.
After all, Palmer had just three practices with the Raiders under his belt and hadn’t played an NFL game since Jan. 2.
“It definitely is an uncomfortable situation to be in but it’s a good situation just to get your feet wet,” said Palmer, explaining his mindset entering the lopsided game trailing 21–0 in the third quarter.
“It’s been awhile since I played football. And to get the few reps that I got under my belt in live action, when the bullets were flying, will definitely benefit me when we have Denver coming in two weeks (after the Week 8 bye).”
That’s a solid reaction from a grounded veteran who has seen it all — from down days at USC under Paul Hackett, to laying the foundation for a Trojan dynasty under Pete Carroll, to carrying the Bengals from obscurity to mediocrity. Palmer has the easy-going California cool and the physical tools the Raiders need right now.
“Just win, baby.” That was the late, great Al Davis’ mantra for a reason; that is what the NFL, and especially the Oakland Raiders are all about.
Reject the popular opinion that the Oakland organization was robbed East Oakland-style. The Raiders definitely did not give up too much for Palmer, a 31-year-old two-time Pro Bowler who was wasting away due to the Cincinnati Bengals’ refusal to trade the quarterback who made their franchise relevant earlier this decade.
Remember, Cincinnati went to the playoffs twice (2005, ’09) in Palmer’s six seasons as the starter. Prior to drafting the 6'5", 236-pound Heisman Trophy winner from USC with the No. 1 overall pick in 2003, the Bungles had not made the postseason since 1990.
But who’s keeping score? Obviously not Mike Brown; but certainly the Raiders’ front office.
When Oakland traded for Palmer, the team had a 4–2 record in a wide-open AFC West division that includes the bi-polar San Diego Chargers, imploding Kansas City Chiefs and the John Elway-Tim Tebow soap opera that is the Denver Broncos.
Coming off of an 8–8 season — the Raiders’ first non-losing campaign since 2002 — hopes were high for Hue Jackson’s team. Then, quarterback Jason Campbell went down with a broken collarbone and the Silver-and-Bleak reality of starting backup Kyle Boller or rookie supplemental draft pick Terrelle Pryor set in. Action was necessary.
“It’s a good young team. It’s still hungry,” said Palmer, assessing his new club’s potential. “We have really good coaching and we have really good players.”
The Raiders needed a signal-caller and didn’t want to wait until the 2012 NFL Draft — which is expected to include Stanford’s Andrew Luck, USC’s Matt Barkley and Oklahoma’s Landry Jones, just to name a few — to acquire one.
Plus, Oakland hasn’t had an eye for quarterbacks lately. Since winning Super Bowl XVIII following the 1983 season, the Raiders have drafted JaMarcus Russell (No. 1 overall), Andrew Walter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Billy Joe Hobert, Todd Marinovich, Major Harris, Jeff Francis, Steve Beuerlein, Rusty Hilger and Randy Essington.
Oakland’s hand was forced when Campbell was lost for the year. Instead of sitting in the Black Hole taking losses, the Raiders went all-in by trading their 2012 first-rounder and a conditional 2013 pick for Palmer.
It was bold. It was right. Davis would be proud.
“One thing I know about Coach (Davis), he loved tall, athletic quarterbacks from USC. That’s for sure,” said Jackson. “One thing he loves, guys that can throw the ball down the field. And this man can. I think he’d have been very excited, very happy.”
The greatest sport in the world is under assault from many different sides. Conference realignment talk has replaced conversation about who’s number one. Cheating coaches are ruining their schools’ reputations and jeopardizing future success. And players are succumbing to temptation out of anger because they feel exploited.
What a mess.
It’s time for some changes. Big changes. College football must be fixed. And we’re just the people to do it. Here are five changes that would save the sport and secure its future.
Are you listening, NCAA?
1. THINKING CAP
The SEC is growing. The Big 12 is shrinking. The Big Ten is staying put. The Big East is struggling.
Ever since Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott started talking about the concept of a handful of 16-team “super conferences,” many have assumed that we are on a collision course with consolidation. Having four confederations of 16 may be convenient from an arithmetic standpoint, but it doesn’t help college football that much.
The biggest problem with such giant conferences is scheduling. Big problems come with seven or eight-team divisions, because teams in the same half of the leagues won’t be playing the same opposition, but they will be competing for the same title. If Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech are vying for first place in an ACC section, but the Hokies play Florida State, Clemson and Pittsburgh from the other side, the Yellow Jackets would have an advantage by meeting Wake Forest, Syracuse and Boston College.
Capping conference membership at 12 makes perfect sense, because it allows for more scheduling equity while still permitting leagues to stage lucrative championship games. Even 10-team leagues would be allowed to split into divisions and play title tilts. That way, nobody could complain about a first-round postseason opponent’s not having had to compete in a conference championship game (yes, this assumes that there’s a playoff — we’ll get to that in a second).
Perhaps the biggest reason to keep smaller conferences is the opportunity to maintain some of the tradition that makes college football so unique. Yes, many of the old-time rivalries have been torn asunder by past realignment, but any opportunity to preserve long-time affiliations should be grabbed, the better to prevent the sport from turning away completely from its history.
2. A REAL CHAMPION
Books have been written and vocal cords have been strained by those inveighing against the BCS, perhaps the single greediest, most misguided method of choosing the “best” team in all of sports. The conflicts of interest surrounding the system are borderline criminal. The arguments made on its behalf reveal transparent agendas. It’s time to end the charade that the BCS is anything but horrible for college football and remove its supporters from the college football equation.
In its place, we will install a playoff system, the preferred method of determining a champion in just about all sports, save figure skating and boxing, further evidence why the BCS is such a train wreck. We’ll go with 16 teams, the better to make sure all worthy conference runners-up get a chance to state their cases, in the event they suffered an untimely early upset loss. Every conference winner gets a spot, and a committee chooses the remaining participants — just as the NCAA does with its incredibly successful Division I hoops tourney. Strength of schedule, quality of victories and performance at season’s end will carry extra weight. And the selectors will be people who know the game: former coaches, ADs and players who pledge to follow college football closely throughout the year and are checked to see if they are carrying out their responsibilities faithfully. This way, current (USA Today Coaches Poll) and somnolent former (Harris Poll) coaches have no say in the matter. The computer will be consulted but not revered, assuring that the pointy-heads have limited influence.
First-round games will be played on campus, in order to reward top seeds. The games will take place the second weekend of December and will be followed by quarterfinal contests a week later — at neutral sites. Try to imagine the bidding by cities to host those games. After a two-week break for exams and Christmas, the national semifinals will be held New Year’s Day at two of the current BCS bowl sites. The Rose and Sugar will host one year, with the Orange and Fiesta taking over the next. Finally, a week later, we choose a real champion at another neutral site.
Worried about the longer season? It doesn’t seem to bother the FCS schools, which choose their champ with a 16-team tourney. And don’t shed a tear for the New Era Pinstripe Bowl or the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl. They don’t die, because the teams that play in them have no shot at the national title right now and certainly wouldn’t be part of a 16-team tourney field down the road, either. The “minor” bowls stick around to reward teams who finish 6–6 or better and to give players and coaches goals. And just imagine the money involved in a playoff. It would dwarf the BCS sham and funnel more dough to the schools themselves, instead of corrupt bowl executives.
3. PAY UP
NCAA grants-in-aid provide money for tuition, room and board, books and sundry college fees. At some places, like Stanford and Duke, that comes out to about 50 grand, a pretty sweet deal. But anybody who has gone to college knows there are some other expenses that college students incur, like laundry, snacks and, ahem, beverages. If schools want to cover the entire cost of a college education, they need to add some money to the pot. About $3,000 per athlete should do it.
Let’s face it: Playing a sport in college is a year-round pursuit, and college football is the most demanding of them all. The actual season runs from the beginning of August, when practice starts, until early December. And if a team makes a bowl game, workouts can continue until early January. No sooner do players return from their Christmas break than they are expected to begin rigorous, daily strength and conditioning workouts that continue until spring drills. Coaches expect players to watch film during that time, too. After spring practice, players may get a month to themselves, but come summer, everybody is expected to be on campus, taking classes and participating in “voluntary” workouts.
When a coach says, “We had our entire team stay here this summer, and that shows their commitment,” he’s really saying, “If any of them went home this summer and got a job, they would be fourth-string when they returned.” Players have no chance to make money, so their ability to take care of the daily expenses that come from university life is non-existent. We’re not talking about booze cruises and hot tub parties, either. Some kids from poor families don’t even have enough money to buy a Slurpee.
The solution is simple: Pay the players. Not a full salary but a monthly stipend of, say, $250. That’s $3,000 per kid, or $255,000 for an entire contingent of 85 scholarship athletes. When you’re talking about teams with budgets of $10 million or more, that’s not too onerous and could be taken care of with a couple of sponsorships or donations from heavy-hitting alumni. And with TV contracts spewing eight figures of income annually to big conference schools, crying poor just doesn’t cut it. While it won’t stop top-end corruption like Nevin Shapiro’s Good Time Express, it will certainly curtail some of the low-level stuff, like Ohio State’s Cash-for-Memorabilia Program.
And, since college athletics should be about all of the players, not just those who show up on TV every Saturday, the payments should be extended to any scholarship athlete. If you’re receiving half of a grant (most “Olympic” sports carve up their scholarship allotment among roster members), you get half the stipend. Is it expensive? Yes. But if schools want to be big time, they have to make their players whole. This is one way to do it.
4. THE COMMISH
Having one man in charge of the sport makes perfect sense, if only to mandate that the University of Maryland never, ever wears those crazy uniforms again.
The main advantages to installing a commissioner are that he will prevent schools from committing acts that hurt the game’s great tradition and character and will assure that bad behavior will be punished swiftly. How great would it have been to have someone capable of stopping the Big 12 from ending the annual Oklahoma-Nebraska game when the teams broke into different divisions? And when it seemed like one in three Florida Gators was getting arrested over the past few years, a law-and-order type could have meted out some proper justice.
The ideal candidate is someone who has interest in and knowledge of collegiate athletics but no direct connection to any team, conference or TV network. We don’t need somebody with a degree from Michigan handing out punishments to tatted-up Ohio State players. We have already seen what happens when representatives from a group of schools try to discipline other institutions. It’s called the NCAA, and it doesn’t work.
Installing a commissioner would allow for swift action when trouble and malfeasance occur. If State’s quarterback is found outside a local cantina at 4 a.m. auditioning for a spot on the next UFC card, a commissioner could suspend him for a couple games, especially if his coach is unwilling to hand out any penalty stiffer than running the stadium steps. The schools may not like it, but the commissioner’s decrees will go a long way toward preserving the game’s integrity and providing a clear message to schools that bad behavior won’t be tolerated.
And when something really big arises, like last year’s Cash-for-Cam scandal, the commissioner won’t have to wait until a tortoise-like NCAA investigative arm decides to look into matters. He can act decisively. And since he has no ties to any specific entity and exists only to make sure the sport is strong and credible, it won’t matter if the commissioner has to suspend someone for a big game, since the real winner will be college football.
5. AND JUSTICE FOR ALL
Once the commissioner is installed, he will have the power to wield a big stick, and he will use it often and decisively on college football’s rules breakers and ne’er-do-wells. Better than that, he will create a well-staffed police department with investigative powers that go beyond the NCAA’s Inspector Clouseau-style gumshoe work.
Instead of taking months or even years to decide whether a school has committed a violation, the commissioner’s office will need days and weeks, thanks to a beefed-up staff and — more important — a commitment to getting the facts quickly. Once the evidence is collected, the commissioner will act swiftly, putting into effect a simplified and standard collection of rules that outline clearly what actions are not permitted.
Further, the punishments will have big, sharp teeth. No more accepting schools’ watered-down “self-imposed penalties.” Conference representatives won’t be able to lobby for leniency. Screw up and pay a big fine. Think a school will support a coach who’s cheating if his transgressions cost the institution $3 million? Not a chance. And how popular would a cheating sideline jockey be if his school lost an opportunity to play in a postseason game because of his crimes against football? Not very.
The goal is to punish coaches, players and schools in the present tense, not five years later. That way, the consequences impact those involved, not future generations. By empowering the commissioner to investigate, rule and discipline, college football will become cleaner and fairer.
Not to mention much better.
-by Braden Gall (@AthlonBraden on twitter)
Each week, the Athlon editors will vote on the most prestigious award in all of college football. A nine-man conglomerate of college football gurus from Athlon Sports will vote for their top 10 Heisman Trophy candidates. The votes will be tallied and the result will be posted as the Athlon Sports Heisman Watch List every Wednesday of the regular season.
Note: The scoring system is as follows: A first place vote earns a player 10 points. A second place votes earns nine points - so on and so forth until the 10th place player receives one point.
And then there were two.
Andrew Luck is the best player in the country and until proven otherwise, he will be atop the Athlon Heisman voting. But the one name who continues to surge upwards, and may have a chance to catch him due to team circumstances, is Alabama's Trent Richardson. After the Badgers and Russell Wilson fell to Michigan State, Richardson sits alone in second place by a wide margin.
Wilson, who fell from No. 2 to No. 5 in the voting, and Oklahoma's Landry Jones experienced brutal conference losses and probably saw their Heisman chances tumble alongside their national championship aspirations. Boise State's Kellen Moore continues to roll along and was the big winner in the voting now that Wilson and Jones have experienced a loss.
Clemson's dynamic duo of Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins also continue to move up the charts as the Tigers continue to win games. If Clemson runs the table, with an excellent non-conference schedule, it will be hard to keep one of these two out of the Big Apple in Decemeber.
And finally, Tyrann Mathieu goes from 10th in the voting to nary a Heisman vote from nine different Athlon editors - go ahead and add losing a Heisman Trophy to the effects of Synthetic Marijuana.
1. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford (89/90 total points, 8/9 first place votes)
Season Stats: 145/202, 1,888 yards, 20 TD, 3 INT, 16 att., 83 yards, TD
Consider the grade on his first major test an A-. Stanford destroyed ranked opponent Washington 65-21 at home over the weekend, but Luck wasn't needed much. He completed 16 of his 21 passes for only 169 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinal ran for a school-record 446 yards and five touchdowns on only 44 carries. Luck's 180.0 passer rating is first in the Pac-12 and fifth nationally. Next Game: at USC
|3.||Robert Griffin III||QB||Baylor||62||-||2||1||2||2||9|
|4.||Kellen Moore||QB||Boise State||61||-||1||1||4||2||9|
|6.||Brandon Weeden||QB||Oklahoma St||40||-||-||-||1||3||8|
|12.||David Wilson||WR||Virginia Tech||4||-||-||-||-||-||1|
2. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama (79)
Season Stats: 149 att., 989 yards, 17 TD, 18 rec., 212 yards, TD
Nick Saban inexplicably turned to the passing game in the first half of the 37-6 win over Tennessee. After watching the Tide sleepwalk to a 6-6 halftime score, Saban gave the ball to T-Rich in the second half and Alabama rolled. Richardson finished with 77 yards and two touchdowns to go with three receptions and 33 more yards. His six-game 100-yard streak came to an end but he still leads the SEC in rushing at 123.6 yards per game. The stiff-armed trophy could be won or lost in two weeks against LSU. Next Game: Bye
3. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor (62)
Season Stats: 142/182, 1,950 yards, 22 TD, 2 INT, 72 att., 295 yards, 2 TD
Griffin, like Kellen Moore, benefited from Wisconsin and Oklahoma losing this weekend. RG3 is now the nation's most efficient passer with a would-be NCAA record 205.71 passer rating. Griffin and the Bears had better have taken advantage of the off week as Oklahoma State and Missouri are the next two opponents for Baylor. Expect only one of the two Heisman quarterbacks to be left standing after this weekend's trip to Stillwater for Baylor. Next Game: at Oklahoma State
4. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State (61 pts)
Season Stats: 174/228, 2,010 yards, 24 TD, 5 INT, 8 att., (-12) yards
Moore won for the 45th time in 47 games as a starter and the Boise State starter is now tied with Colt McCoy as the winningest quarterback in NCAA history. In a tricky 37-26 win over Air Force, Moore completed 23-of-29 passes for 281 yards and three touchdowns. Boise State would likely need to land in the BCS title game for Moore to have a chance to win the Heisman, so watching two major dominoes fall had to make Chris Peterson and Company happy. Next Game: at UNLV
5. Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin (56)
Season Stats: 109/149, 1,780 yards, 16 TD, 3 INT, 32 att., 212 yards, 3 TD, 1 rec., 25 yards, TD
It's too bad Wilson cannot play defensive back. After making two of his worst throws as a Badger (two INTs), Wilson rallied his team with 14 fourth-quarter points to tie the game with 1:26 left in the game. Unfortunately, the Hail Mary heard 'round Madtown went the way of the Spartans. The Big Ten title is still very much in reach, but the national championship run is over for Wisconsin. Wilson finished with 223 yards, two TDs, two INTs, 30 yards rushing and a third touchdown on the ground. Next Game: at Ohio State
6. Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State (40)
Season Stats: 222/309, 2,436 yards, 19 TD, 7 INT, 14 att., (-85) yards
Weeden produced another workman-like victory for the unblemished Cowboys 45-24 over Missouri. The Pokes' quarterback completed 33-of-49 passes for 338 yards and three scores in the easier-than-anticipated triumph over the Tigers. It was his 12th 300-yard effort of the last two seasons, and undoubtedly, Weeden and his Stillwater brethren thoroughly enjoyed what took place later that night in Norman, Oklahoma. A Heisman elimination game between Griffin III and the Bears is up next for Weeden. Next Game: Baylor
7. Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson (39)
Season Stats: 172/278, 2,379 yards, 24 TD, 3 INT, 81 att., 165 yards, 4 TD
Few players had as productive a Week 8 as Boyd did in the convincing 59-38 win over North Carolina. Boyd threw for 367 yards and five touchdowns will rushing for another score on the ground. At 318 yards of total offense per game, Boyd is the most productive player in the ACC thus far in 2011. A trip to Atlanta this weekend provides a rematch of the 2009 ACC title game. Next Game: at Georgia Tech
8. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma (23)
Season Stats: 201/308, 2,589 yards, 21 TD, 7 INT, 14 att., 22 yards, 2 TD
Jones' numbers were awesome: 412 yards, five touchdowns and 30 completions. Yet, the only stat that matters is the 41-38 final score. Jones' fifth consecutive game of at least 360 yards was all for naught as the Sooners watched their national championship hopes likely die with the inexplicable three-point home loss to Texas Tech. There is still a Big 12 title to be won so Jones will need to be at his best again this weekend at the unbeaten Wildcats. Next Game: at Kansas State
9. Case Keenum, QB, Houston (15)
Season Stats: 194/266, 2,685 yards, 23 TD, 2 INT, 26 att., 40 yards
It was a record-setting evening for the Houston Cougars' quarterback. The sixth-year senior threw for 376 yards and six scores to improve his team's record to 7-0 in the 63-28 win over Marshall. Keenum became the NCAA's all-time record holder for total offense with 17,173 (902 rushing, 16,271 passing). He is only 801 yards away from passing Timmy Chang as the NCAA's all-time leading passer (17,072). For his career, Keenum has scored 150 total touchdowns - 130 passing and 20 rushing. Next Game: Rice
10. Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson (11)
Season Stats: 60 rec., 815 yards, 9 TD, 13 PR, 128 yards
This true freshman has quickly become one of the most dynamic and electric athletes in all of college football. In the 59-38 win over North Carolina, Watkins caught eight passes for 91 yards, returned four kicks for 96 yards and scored a touchdown. It was his third straight game with at least seven catches and his sixth such game in eight career contests. Defenses are beginning to shade coverages towards Watkins as a sign of respect, so it will be interesting to see how the young receiver handles all the attention. Next Game: at Georgia Tech
Athlon Sports Heisman Ballot: Week 8
Athlon Sports Heisman Ballot: Week 7
Athlon Sports Heisman Ballot: Week 6
Athlon Sports Heisman Ballot: Week 5
Athlon Sports Heisman Ballot: Week 4
Athlon Sports Heisman Ballot: Week 3
Athlon Sports Heisman Ballot: Week 2
Athlon Sports Heisman Ballot: Week 1
Is it “Final Four or Bust” for Jamie Dixon and his Pittsburgh basketball program? Hardly, but the ninth-year coach is aware of an antsy fan base. “I know everyone wants us to win a national championship,” says Dixon, who’s advanced to three Sweet 16s and an Elite Eight during his tenure. “We want it just as badly.” Pittsburgh was a legitimate Final Four contender last season after winning the Big East regular-season title and earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but a deflating 71–70 loss to national finalist Butler in the Round of 32 left a stinging feeling. It was Pittsburgh’s second consecutive defeat on the first weekend of the NCAAs. It also marked the second time in three years that the Panthers failed to advance to the Final Four, despite earning a No. 1 seed.
Dixon’s reaction? “We won’t stop going after it, I can tell you that.”
Despite losing talented starters Brad Wanamaker, Gilbert Brown and Gary McGhee from a 28–6 team, Dixon returns one of the top shooters in the nation in Ashton Gibbs and enough depth for the Panthers to extend their 10-year streak of 20 overall victories and no fewer than 10 Big East wins. And, as always, the sum is greater than the parts for these Panthers.
Key Panthers Stat: 3.2
Pitt's six losses last season came by an average of 3.2 points per game. The Panthers' most lopsided loss was by seven points to Tennessee.
Junior center Dante Taylor looks to fulfill the hype that surrounded his arrival three years ago as a McDonald’s All-American. And even though he’s been more Chicken Nugget than Big Mac thus far, he was a force in a local Pro-Am league over the summer, unveiling a slimmed-down and more powerful frame. A relentless offensive rebounder, Taylor can be a legit 12-point, eight-rebound player. Should he emerge, Taylor and freshman Khem Birch, the top-rated Pittsburgh recruit in 25 years, could be a formidable 1-2 punch on the blocks. Birch, who will likely come off the bench, is a leaper who can change a game with his shot-blocking and rebounding prowess. He is the best pure athlete of the Dixon era and was rated a top-10 recruit according to several recruiting services.
At power forward, senior Nasir Robinson is a no-frills, undersized powerhouse who specializes in defense and rebounding, yet managed to score 21 points in a win over Syracuse. His toughness personifies Dixon-coached Pittsburgh teams.
An X-factor offensively could be high-flying J.J. Moore, who received limited playing time as a freshman last season. Moore attacks the rim frequently and possesses a scorer’s mentality. Veteran Lamar Patterson is another quality small forward, while the intriguing Talib Zanna provides a two-way threat off the bench.
Gibbs withdrew from the NBA Draft to improve on a skill set that features dead-eye shooting (he ranked third in the NCAA in 3-point percentage at 49.0), unquestioned leadership skills and an unrivaled competitive drive. Gibbs famously went shot-for-shot with Connecticut’s Kemba Walker in a Big East Tournament loss last season, going 10-of-13 from the field and 6-of-7 from 3-point range. He embraces the big stage, and that confidence rubs off on his teammates.
Junior point guard Tray Woodall is a brash Brooklyn native who confidently sets the tempo, evidenced by an assist-to-turnover ratio that ranked second in the Big East. He and Gibbs could form the best backcourt tandem in Dixon’s nine years. Freshman John Johnson, an aggressor who’s been compared to former Villanova star Scottie Reynolds, could force Dixon to give him extended playing time, while redshirt freshmen Isaiah Epps and Cameron Wright provide quality depth.
Pittsburgh might be challenged to reach that elusive Final Four due to three new starters, but history reminds us that the Panthers will win. A lot. Consider: Dixon has won more games in his first eight years than any coach in history, averaging 27.0 per season. He also is the only active coach to lead his team to at least one victory in each of the past six NCAA Tournaments.
Much of Dixon’s past success has been achieved with good, but not great talent. That is changing, though, with top-notch recruits like Birch, Taylor and Gibbs now dotting the roster. The program is climbing closer to elite status with each successful season, though Dixon and the Pittsburgh fan base realize that the true breakthrough arrives when a Final Four is achieved. This version of the Panthers isn’t likely to get there, but never count them out.
Big East Prediction: 4th
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Sweet 16
by Josh Kipnis
Game 5 of the World Series was a disaster for the St. Louis Cardinals; they couldn’t hit with runners in scoring position, they couldn’t take advantage of Chris Carpenter’s great outing, and manager Tony La Russa lost his mind.
In the most pivotal game of the series, La Russa, a two-time World Series Champion and the 3rd ranked manager on the all time wins list, complicated things beyond measure. His list of mistakes covers essentially every aspect of the game, including, unbelievably, a telephone conversation gone haywire. But hey, everyone makes mistakes right? We just have to learn from them. So here is a checklist La Russa should think about posting in the dugout for the Game 6 matchup:
1) Unleash the beast that is Albert Pujols
Don’t take the bat out of his hands, ever. Twice, a hit-and-run was called when Pujols was at the plate, and each time the runner on first was thrown out. I understand the Cardinals have set a franchise record in double plays this year, but you can’t play scared. Trust the man that has taken you to the Promised Land. Albert Pujols is a machine, seriously. If we refer to Calvin Johnson as “Megatron,” what are we supposed to call Pujols? Super-Jumbo-Ginormous-Humongo-tron? (I think we’re on to something here). Let him hit! He might just go 5 for 6 with 6 RBI and 3 HR. Wait, he already did that?
2) Don’t bet on a horse with three legs
A hit-and-run was called twice in Game 5, and both times Allen Craig was the runner on first. While the batter is supposed to make contact, he is also told to leave any “unhittable” pitches alone. So when a ball soared out of the strike zone, Pujols, wisely, decided not to swing. But how slow can Allen Craig be? Mike Napoli, the catcher for the Texas Rangers, had to leap up and turn his back just to catch the ball; and he still threw Craig out by a mile. If you can’t steal a base on a pitch like that, don’t even bother tying your shoelace. It might be less embarrassing to just trip over your own leg and fall face first into the dirt. No more gambling on the base paths.
3) A massive beard is the key to winning playoff games
Brian Wilson taught us to “fear the beard” in San Francisco’s run at the championship last year. This year, closer Jason Motte, is sporting his own frightening facial hair. Motte has been nearly perfect, shutting down opponents in every appearance except his slip-up in the 9th in Game 2. In Game 5, Cards killer, Mike Napoli, approached the plate in the bottom of the 8th with one out, the bases loaded, and the game tied--meaning a simple sac fly would score a run and win the game. With this in mind, La Russa decided to keep his lefty reliever, Marc Rzepcynski, in the game to pitch to the righty hitter. But why? Once again, La Russa abandoned the simple strategy that has consistently worked in the past; he refused to go to a righty-righty matchup with Motte. Motte strikes out nearly all of his victims, a turnkey solution for the predicament. Instead, clean cut Rzepcynski stays in and gives up the lead on a 2-RBI double by Napoli. Stick with consistency; facial hair trumps all. (By the way, Derek Holland of the Rangers? Sorriest attempt at a moustache I’ve ever seen, but it seemed to work. Last start: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER)
4) Make sure the delivery man knows your exact order
Ok, this is the most pathetic excuse I have ever heard. In the eighth inning, La Russa picked up the dugout phone and called his bullpen coach to tell certain players to warm up. Only problem: he didn’t speak clearly enough for the bullpen coach. Really? That’s the best you got? Instead of requesting Jason Motte, the coach thought he heard Lance Lynn. Honest mistake, I confuse those names all the time. What’s worse? La Russa called a second time to get Motte up and ready and there was yet another miscommunication. I offer two pieces of advice:
a) Think of it as ordering a pizza. If I order a delicious “za” and they get it wrong the first time, no way am I messing it up a second time. Mandate that you want some pepperonis. After all, it does sound a lot like sausage.
b) If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. Think of all the ways you can get a message across nowadays. You can email, text, or Skype. If the phone lines are down, lets get a little creative in the dugout. Pull up your Facebook or Gmail and instant message the bullpen. Open up your twitter account and tweet whoever you want in the game. By far the most flawless plan-go to Hogwarts, pay a first-year for his owl, and let him sit atop the railing of the dugout next to Dave Duncan. No way Hedwig doesn’t get the message delivered.
Listen, hindsight may be 20/20, but come on; we should be able to expect a little bit more out of a hall of fame manager.
Baylor coach Scott Drew has spent the last two years assembling one of the most talented teams in all of college basketball. Now comes the next step: Doing something with it. Not many teams enter the 2011-12 season with an opportunity as golden as the one facing the Bears. Four Big 12 schools have first-year coaches, seven-time defending league champion Kansas is in rebuilding mode and the conference as a whole appears to be down. Baylor is the one exception.
The Bears’ roster features two players — forwards Perry Jones and Quincy Miller — who are projected as top-10 picks in next summer’s NBA Draft. Forwards Quincy Acy and Anthony Jones have pro potential as well. Mix in junior college point guard Pierre Jackson and Boston College transfer Brady Heslip in the backcourt, and Baylor, on paper, touts an arsenal superior to any team in the Big 12.
“We’ve definitely got a good group,” Drew says. “But it takes more than talent to win in this league or any league. It’s all about how your guys play together, how they mesh. Hopefully things will work out for us in that regard.”
Key Bears Stat: 5
The Bears have five players who stand 6'9" or taller. And all of them — Quincy Miller, Perry Jones, Anthony Jones, J'mison Morgan and Cory Jefferson — are expected to either start or contribute significantly.
For the second straight season, the Bears will boast an extraordinary blend of size, length and versatility down low. The most notable name is Perry Jones, who shocked the college basketball world in April when he announced he would bypass the NBA Draft — where he likely would’ve been a top-five pick — to return to school. Jones stands 6'11" and weighs 235 pounds, but he is hardly the typical forward. It’s not uncommon for Jones to bring the ball up the court or handle it on the perimeter before exploding toward the basket. He has excellent touch from midrange but still needs to be more assertive and play with more ferocity. Still, Jones may possess more pure talent than anyone in the college game.
Jones isn’t the only Baylor big man with a multi-faceted game. The 6'9" Miller was ranked as one of the top-10 members of the Class of 2011 by virtually every recruiting service. He has a wide array of moves both inside and outside of the paint and is an excellent long-range shooter. Miller missed his senior season of high school with a torn ACL but is expected to be healthy by the start of the upcoming season.
Returning at small forward is 6'10" senior Anthony Jones, an excellent 3-point shooter and penetrator who, like Perry Jones and Miller, handles the ball extremely well for his size. Acy is a dunk machine who will come off the bench after averaging 12.4 points as a junior. J’mison Morgan, who is 6'11", will also contribute after averaging 12.5 minutes last season.
LaceDarius Dunn, the Big 12’s all-time leading scorer, is gone, and that’s a good thing. Dunn’s poor and often selfish shot selection was one of the main reasons Baylor failed to reach the NCAA Tournament last season. With Dunn out of the mix, forwards such as Perry Jones, Anthony Jones, Miller and Acy will get more scoring opportunities — assuming, of course, that Jackson, Heslip and A.J. Walton get them the ball.
Baylor is hoping Jackson becomes the standout point guard it so sorely lacked in 2010-11. Jackson was the National Junior College Player of the Year at the College of Southern Idaho. His backcourt mate will likely be Heslip, a Canadian who has drawn comparisons to former Bears guard Aaron Bruce. Baylor’s coaches are hoping Heslip will definitely exhibit a “take charge” mentality and become the team’s vocal leader and “glue” that holds everything together. Walton will likely come off the bench along with Cal transfer Gary Franklin. The wild card is freshman Deuce Bello, a high school teammate of Miller’s tabbed by one media outlet as one of the best dunkers in the world.
Drew has orchestrated quite a turnaround in Waco. Less than 10 years after narrowly avoiding the NCAA death penalty following Patrick Dennehy’s murder, Baylor is in prime position to win the program’s first conference title since 1950. The key will be whether Drew can keep his stable of talented players happy and get them to co-exist. There are only so many minutes to go around. The other factor will be whether this group accepts coaching and learns to play with the discipline and structure that have long been missing in Waco. Street-ball won’t cut it in the Big 12.
Big 12 Prediction: 1st
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Sweet 16
Josh Pastner learned last year that relying almost exclusively on first-year players — even first-year players oozing with talent — isn’t as simple as those who ranked Memphis in the Top 25 of most preseason polls must’ve believed. His Tigers struggled before Christmas and after Christmas, limped through the C-USA portion of their schedule and suffered embarrassing losses to SMU, Rice and East Carolina. It was bad.
But then Joe Jackson started playing like the McDonald’s All-American he was supposed to be, and Memphis reeled off three consecutive victories in El Paso to win the C-USA Tournament and earn the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. A week later, they played Arizona tough before losing at the buzzer. So now Pastner is dealing with high expectations again — the only difference being that those first-year players are now second-year veterans.
“We have 99 percent of our guys back, but we’re not going to worry about other people’s predictions,” Pastner says. “We have to earn it.”
Key Tigers Stat: 2
Josh Pastner lost two assistants this offseason. Glynn Cyprien left to become the associate head coach at Texas A&M, and Willis Wilson is now the head coach at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.
One of the few Memphis freshmen who exceeded expectations last year was Tarik Black, a 6'8" forward who entered college as a borderline top-50 recruit and is now projected as a future first-round draft pick. Black averaged 9.1 points and 5.0 rebounds. He’ll start in the middle and be backed up by Stan Simpson — a 6'10" former Illinois player who spent last season averaging 14.0 points and 8.5 rebounds in junior college.
“I think Tarik can be a terrific force inside, but the key to that is going to be us making shots from the perimeter,” Pastner says. “We’re going to need to be a good 3-point shooting team because otherwise the middle will be too clogged.”
Memphis will use two versatile wings at the other forward positions — Wesley Witherspoon and Adonis Thomas. Witherspoon, a 6'9" senior, battled injuries and attitude issues and was buried on the bench for parts of last season. Still, he’s talented, and with proper focus he could be an important piece to Pastner’s puzzle. Thomas is the second straight high-profile local star to enroll at Memphis. He is, like Jackson, a McDonald’s All-American. The 6'6" forward brings a winning pedigree, strong leadership and the all-around talent to be Memphis’ latest one-and-done candidate.
Ferrakohn Hall will add depth in the frontcourt when he becomes eligible in December. The Memphis native is a 6'8" transfer who began his college career at Seton Hall.
Jackson started at point guard for USA Basketball’s U19 team this summer, and he’ll do the same for the Tigers. Pastner’s hope is that the Jackson who averaged 18.7 points during the C-USA Tournament is in uniform, as opposed to the Jackson who struggled so mightily that he was actually replaced in the starting lineup last season.
“I knew it would take some time for him to get it, and he had some ups and downs,” Pastner says. “But Joe got it towards the end of the year and helped us get to the NCAA Tournament, and he played well this summer with USA Basketball, too. So I think he’s going to be good, and we need him to be good.”
Jackson’s backcourt mate is Will Barton, a 6'6" sophomore who also experienced ups and downs last season but emerged as the Tigers’ leading scorer. He averaged 12.3 points and 4.9 rebounds while showing a unique ability to create his own shot.
“Will being a year older is going to benefit us,” Pastner says. “He’s more mature and more focused now, but that’s the case for all of our guys.”
Chris Crawford, Antonio Barton and Charles Carmouche provide depth in the backcourt. All of them are talented enough to start at some point. Together, they’ll allow Pastner to teach lessons and Memphis to endure whatever turned ankles and pulled hamstrings that might pop up.
While struggling to a 10–6 finish in C-USA last season, the Tigers showed that having more talent than everybody in the league guarantees nothing. Everything was new for everybody — from Pastner to Jackson to Barton to Black. But now the coach is a year older and so are the top six scorers, all of whom return. The byproduct should be an easy C-USA title, another trip to the NCAA Tournament and, perhaps, the first Sweet 16 of Pastner’s young career.
“But predictions are for the birds,” Pastner says. “We want action — just production and action and nothing else.”
Conference USA Prediction: 1st
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Sweet 16
Bill Self isn’t sugarcoating the situation. After a 35–3 season and an NCAA Tournament run that ended a win shy of the Final Four, the Kansas basketball coach can’t see his 2011-12 team being any better than last year’s Big 12 championship squad. But that doesn’t mean the Jayhawks will take a step backward, either. “I think we’ll take a step sideways,” Self says.
That certainly wouldn’t be a bad thing in Lawrence, where Kansas has won seven straight Big 12 titles and averaged 33 wins over the last five seasons. Equaling that success in 2011-12 will be a bit more difficult. NBA Lottery picks Marcus and Markieff Morris are gone along with one-and-done Josh Selby and savvy veterans Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed.
Still, even with only one returning starter (point guard Tyshawn Taylor), the Jayhawks are confident that the emergence of forward Thomas Robinson and the offseason strides made by players such as Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford will keep them in the hunt with Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri and Texas for the top spot in the league standings.
Key Jayhawks Stat: 4
In Bill Self's eight-year tenure, the Jayhawks haev suffered four postseason losses to teams from mid-major conferences. Bucknell (2005), Bradley (2006), Northern Iowa (2010) and VCU (2011) all defeated KU in the NCAA Tournament.
Robinson likely would’ve been a first-round pick in the NBA Draft had he chosen to leave school. Instead, the 6'9", 237-pounder will spend another season enhancing his game under Jayhawks big man coach Danny Manning, who has helped develop seven post players into draft picks in the last five years. The 7.6 points and 6.4 rebounds Robinson averaged last season are underwhelming until you consider that he played only 14.6 minutes off the bench. Robinson is a chiseled, athletic specimen who uses his power game to score on worn-down opponents. He and Baylor’s Perry Jones enter the season as the top two candidates for Big 12 Player of the Year.
The problem is that, beyond Robinson, Kansas is as thin in the post as it has been in Self’s eight years in Lawrence. Jeff Withey is a 7-footer who has been limited to mop-up duty the last few seasons. Justin Wesley, the half-brother of former Jayhawks standout Keith Langford, sat out last season after transferring from Lamar, where he averaged 1.2 points as a freshman. Luckily, Self was able to sign 6'8" swingman Kevin Young during the spring. Young started for two seasons (2008-10) at Loyola Marymount before taking a year off to attend junior college. He has two seasons of eligibility remaining.
The Jayhawks aren’t as deep on the perimeter as they’ve been in the past, but they certainly tout a strong one-two punch in Taylor and Johnson. Hailed as one of the fastest guards in the country, Taylor is entering his fourth season as a starter. He averaged 9.3 points and 4.6 assists on a loaded team in 2010-11. His biggest task this season, though, will be taking over the leadership role that was left vacant by the Morris twins. Taylor has had a handful of minor off-court incidents during his time in Lawrence, but his attitude and work ethic were impressive at the end of last season and over the summer. Johnson — who was stuck behind Taylor, Reed, Morningstar and Selby as a sophomore — may have improved more than any Kansas player during the offseason. His 3-point shooting stole the show in the Jayhawks’ annual alumni games and, defensively, he’s proven to be a pest.
The 6'5" Releford was a highly touted recruit when he signed with the Jayhawks, but he’s had to wait his turn behind other talented players with more experience. Now he’ll get his chance as Kansas’ small forward. He’ll likely be pushed by incoming freshman Ben McLemore, the jewel of Self’s 2011 recruiting class. While he’s certainly a talent, McLemore is viewed as a “project player” who may take some time to adjust to the structure and X’s and O’s of Self’s system.
This will be far from one of the best teams of Self’s tenure, but KU will still be good enough to contend for a conference title in what appears will be a down year for the Big 12. Along with a lack of leadership and experience, one of Kansas’ biggest obstacles will be surviving a brutally tough non-league schedule that includes a trip to the Maui Invitational as well as tilts with Kentucky, Ohio State and USC. If Self’s players can make it through that gauntlet with their confidence intact, they’ll be more than capable of doing some damage in the NCAA Tournament.
Big 12 Prediction: 2nd
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Sweet 16
In the spring of 2010, Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan delivered a blunt message to forward Jon Leuer: The rising senior would have to lead the 2010-11 team. With Leuer gone — he was selected by the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round of the NBA draft in June — the baton has been passed to senior guard Jordan Taylor. A second-team All-American who last season led the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio at 3.83 (161 assists, 42 turnovers), finished fourth in the Big Ten in scoring (18.1 ppg) and was on the league’s all-defensive team, Taylor will be the most indispensable player on the UW roster this season.
“It is his team,” Purdue coach Matt Painter says of Taylor, who has 51 starts and 100 games played for UW. “Bo’s lead guard — whether it is Kammron Taylor or Trevon Hughes or Devin Harris — he always seems to have that key guy that understands you do not turn the ball over and get (the team) a good shot every time.”
Leuer and Taylor helped UW finish third in the Big Ten — UW was picked as low as seventh — and reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2008. Can Taylor lead UW to greater heights this season? Given the loss of three senior forwards, that appears to be a daunting task. However, there is no doubt that Ryan’s 11th UW team will be Taylor’s to lead.
Key Badgers Stat: 171
The three forwards who must be replaced — Keaton Nankivil, Jon Leuer and Tim Jarmusz — combined to start 171 games over the last two seasons.
The departure of Leuer and Keaton Nankivil means the only proven playmaker is junior Mike Bruesewitz, who can make the Energizer bunny appear lazy. Bruesewitz began to blossom last season and averaged 8.7 points and 6.3 rebounds in three NCAA Tournament games — despite playing on a painful right knee he sprained in the Big Ten Tournament. Bruesewitz has always provided instant energy on both ends of the court, but last season he became a more consistent scoring option by improving his shooting to .471 from .333 as a freshman.
Bruesewitz can’t carry the load alone, however. Junior Jared Berggren and perhaps redshirt freshman Evan Anderson will have to provide low-post scoring and physical play, two traits the Badgers lacked last season.
Berggren, like most of UW’s big men, is comfortable shooting from the 3-point line. However, he is equally at ease playing with his back to the basket and has the best post moves on the team. He must, however, stay out of foul trouble. Last season Berggren averaged one foul every 5.4 minutes.
Anderson displayed a nice mid-range jumper during practice last season. His post moves need work, but he can punish foes with his physical play.
“One thing coach looks for is … we’ve been a little too reliant on jump shots,” Berggren says. “He is always looking for a post presence.”
Senior Rob Wilson, junior Ryan Evans and sophomore Duje Dukan are wild cards. Wilson continued to struggle defensively last season and saw his playing time dip; Evans struggles because he too often tries to force plays on offense; Dukan, a prolific scorer in high school, wasn’t physically ready to compete as a freshman.
Taylor and sophomores Josh Gasser and Ben Brust should give the staff the option of using a three-guard lineup if necessary.
Taylor has improved dramatically since his freshman season and should be one of the top guards in the country. Gasser is a skilled all-around player who started 30 games as a freshman and recorded the first triple-double in program history (10 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) at Northwestern. His only weakness is 3-point shooting (.302).
Brust, who worked on the scout team as a freshman, could provide another scoring option. He has deep range and is tremendous coming off screens and shooting or attacking the basket.
No one was pleased with the forgettable performance in the 61–54 loss to Butler in the Sweet 16. UW had the potential to reach the Final Four for the first time ever under Ryan. For some fans, that loss overshadowed a solid regular-season run, which included handing then-No. 1 Ohio State its first loss. UW can contend for the league title and win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament, but several things need to happen: Taylor must stay healthy; Berggren and Anderson must give UW production on the interior; Bruesewitz must continue his rise; and the Badgers must get some production from an unexpected source.
Big Ten Prediction: 2nd
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Sweet 16
The biggest issue facing Xavier this season is managing expectations. After all, Xavier has won five straight A-10 regular-season titles and made the NCAA Tournament 10 times in the last 11 years with four trips to the Sweet 16 and two to the Elite Eight. Coach Chris Mack welcomes back three starters who earned all-conference honors — including A-10 Player of the Year Tu Holloway. And the Musketeers are adding young talent to their experienced and tested upperclassmen.
“There’s a tradition the guys are well aware of,” Mack says. “It actually fuels their motivation over the summer to live up to the expectations, especially as an older player. It’s a healthy pressure on our veterans.”
Key Musketeers Stat: 5
Xavier has won five consecutive A-10 regular-season titles. Ironically, the last year they won the A-10 Tournament (2006) was also the last year they didn't win the regular season.
Xavier has the ability to run multiple bigs with varying bodies and skills at opponents — a tremendous luxury. The frontcourt is held down by massive 7'0" senior Kenny Frease. The honorable mention All-A-10 selection was among the most improved players in the league last season, and Mack believes he can get even better.
“He has to be in great shape, more mobile and athletic and impact us around the basket,” Mack says. “He’s so big other teams won’t be able to handle him if he’s more mobile. He can be a tremendous offensive rebounder if he gets on the glass instead of laying on the other guy’s back when a shot goes up.”
Two 6'7" transfers are expected to make significant contributions. Travis Taylor, who spent his first two years at Monmouth, plays hard and can score around the basket or step out to medium range. Andre Walker is a post-graduate transfer from Vanderbilt who can do a little bit of everything. He isn’t a big scorer, but he handles the ball well and is a terrific passer.
Redshirt freshman Justin Martin, also 6'7", will challenge for playing time. Mack can also turn to a pair of 6'9" players. Jeff Robinson has been productive in spurts, and Griffin McKenzie can step out and shoot the three effectively.
The discussion obviously begins with Holloway, who’s thrived in the lead role. Holloway led the team last year in scoring (19.7 ppg) and the A-10 in assists (5.4 apg). He can fill a stat sheet; so what does Mack want Holloway to do in his senior year?
“He has to be more vocal and be more of a leader,” says the third-year head coach. “He’s always been a hard worker and gotten better each and every year, but I think it’s important to improve his teammates and raise their level of play and their work ethic.”
The conversation doesn’t end there. One of the few areas in which Xavier struggled last season was behind the 3-point line. They shot just .329 and scored only 22.5 percent of their points from beyond the arc (288th nationally). That’s why Mack is particularly excited about the return of Brad Redford, who was one of the nation’s top 3-point shooters as a freshman and sophomore but sat out last season due to a knee injury.
“I tell people all the time he’s the best shooter I’ve ever been around,” Mack says. “It’s uncanny because it’s difficult for him to get his shot off sometimes. But if he’s open, there isn’t another player I’d want shooting.”
The versatile and athletic Mark Lyons earned third-team All-A-10 honors as a sophomore and is the team’s second leading returning scorer and assist man. Dezmine Wells arrives as a 6'4" freshman with a college-ready body. Mack is cautiously optimistic. “We recruited him to be an impact player,” he says, “but there’s a difference in who you are on paper and who you are on the floor.”
Mack, who signed a new contract over the summer to remain at Xavier through the 2017-18 season, feels the excitement surrounding the program. He knows expectations are high, and he embraces the infectious nature of winning.
“We are very well aware that we have a talented group of returning players and newcomers,” says Mack. “We sense the excitement from our fans.”
But Mack also knows that excitement won’t win them one single game, that a sense of entitlement could sink his team’s high aspirations. He knows the clichés of hard work, chemistry and “the little things” are the keys for a deep NCAA Tournament run.
“That’s what makes a great team,” he says. “Certainly we’re talented, and we recognize that, but we need to sacrifice some individual things to reach team goals that we set out.”
A-10 Prediction: 1st
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Sweet 16
Last season, Alabama became the first SEC team to win more than 10 games in league play — the Tide went 12–4 — and not make the NCAA Tournament. Anthony Grant’s club was done in by a bloated RPI (No. 80) that was a product of some bad losses in non-conference play and a very weak SEC West. This season, Alabama shouldn’t have to worry about an NCAA snub. With a strong nucleus that includes three All-SEC candidates — point guard Trevor Releford and forwards Tony Mitchell and JaMychal Green — joined by a top-flight recruiting class, the Crimson Tide figure to be among the better teams in the SEC and appear to be a safe bet to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2006.
Key Crimson Tide Stat: 19
Alabama finished the 2010-11 season undefeated at home, winning all 19 games. The Tide haven't lost at home since February 2010.
The Tide’s front line is led by Green, a 6'8", 225-pounder from Montgomery who bypassed the NBA Draft for his senior season in Tuscaloosa. Green, a former McDonald’s All-American, led the Tide in both scoring (15.5 ppg) and rebounding (7.5 rpg). He responded to an early season suspension by playing the best basketball of his career over the final four months of the season. His size and athleticism make him a difficult cover for opposing big men.
Mitchell emerged as one of the better players in the league during his sophomore season. The 6'6" small forward averaged 16.4 points in SEC games. During one six-game stretch in February, Mitchell averaged 21.5 points while shooting .596 from the field. He has the ability to be a first-team All-SEC performer.
Bama expects an immediate contribution from freshman Nick Jacobs, a 6'9", 250-pound power forward from Atlanta. “He brings a good deal of size and physicality to our frontcourt,” Grant says. “As he continues to develop, he’ll be a guy at the power forward spot for us that brings the physicality and interior scoring that we need.”
Grant also dipped into the junior college ranks for some help, signing Moussa Gueye, a native of Senegal who spent two seasons at Lake Land (Ill.) College. The 7'0" Gueye is raw on the offensive end but should help defensively and on the boards.
Fan favorite Carl Engstrom, a native of Sweden, played in 21 games last year but averaged only 5.3 minutes and did not score against SEC competition.
The youth movement at Alabama began last season as Grant let Releford run the offense from Day 1 as a freshman. The Kansas City native started 36 of 37 games and proved to be a solid scorer (11.0 ppg) and distributor (3.4 apg). He isn’t much of a threat from outside — he hit only 19 3-pointers for the season — but he made over 50 percent of his 2-point field goals because of his ability to get to the basket. Releford also proved to be a pesky defender, ranking third in the league with 1.6 steals per game.
Releford will be flanked on the wing by two freshman shooting guards who come to Alabama with outstanding credentials. Both Trevor Lacey and Levi Randolph were top-50 national recruits who had offers from established national powers.
Lacey, a two-time Mr. Basketball in Alabama, is not a high-level athlete, but he plays with a high basketball IQ and has a nice stroke from the outside. The 6'5" Randolph can handle the ball and, like Lacey, fill it up from the perimeter. Both freshmen should play significant minutes right away.
Ben Eblen played 9.2 minutes per game backing up Releford at the point last season. He isn’t much of a threat offensively. Swingmen Charles Hankerson and Rodney Cooper will battle for time in the rotation. Hankerson played sparingly as a freshman before breaking into the rotation late in the year. He averaged 14.4 minutes in the Tide’s five NIT games.
Alabama will be young and talented — and very exciting to watch. Grant’s team lacks proven depth, but when you’ve got three of the better players in the league on your team, you’ve got a chance to be pretty good.
If the Big 3 remain healthy and one of the two freshman guards — Lacey and/or Randolph — emerges as a scorer, the Crimson Tide could be poised to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
SEC Prediction: 4th
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Sweet 16
And the beat goes on for Marquette University. Looking for their seventh consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, the Golden Eagles head into the 2011-12 season poised to build on last season’s surprise Sweet 16 appearance. That team relied heavily upon the versatility and experience of Jimmy Butler, who was selected in the first round of the NBA Draft by the Chicago Bulls. This year’s version of the Golden Eagles will feature a trio of similarly talented and interchangeable players in forwards Jae Crowder and Jamil Wilson and guard Darius Johnson-Odom.
Key Golden Eagles Stat: 64
Marquette received an at-large invitation to the NCAA Tournament despite an RPI of 64. Only USC (67) had a worse RPI among the at-large pool.
Coach Buzz Williams used his connections within the junior college circuit to land Crowder, a 6'6" forward who was billed coming in as a virtual clone of Lazar Hayward, an undersized but tough inside-out player who preceded Butler as a first-round pick.
Crowder lived up to the hype for the most part, averaging 11.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game while also knocking down 42 3-pointers. He’ll need to up those numbers this year while also becoming much better on the defensive end, as his penchant for getting into early foul trouble a year ago left MU shorthanded up front on a number of occasions.
Giving Williams and MU more firepower alongside Crowder will be Wilson, a native of nearby Racine, Wis., who left Oregon after a moderately successful freshman year in 2009-10. He used his redshirt year at MU to add both toughness as well as size to his 6'7", 220-pound frame, and he enters his first competitive season with the Golden Eagles expected to play anywhere from center in a small lineup to point guard, depending upon what Williams needs at the time.
Providing depth will be sophomore shooter Jamail Jones and freshman Juan Anderson, both of whom are athletic wings.
In the pivot, MU will hope for more progress from both junior Chris Otule and sophomore Davante Gardner, both of whom have developed from major projects into a promising two-headed monster at center. The 6'11", 265-pound Otule gives MU some intimidating size and shot-blocking capability on the defensive end and on the boards. The 6'8", 290-pound Gardner, meanwhile, is a surprisingly adept scorer on the block despite both height and quickness limitations.
Getting both to play at a consistently high level will be key for an MU team that has struggled for years against the bigger, stronger teams the Big East typically has to offer.
Johnson-Odom, a second team All-Big East selection as a junior, is poised to build on his success after a productive summer that saw him turn heads at LeBron James’ Nike Skills camp. The lefthander has become almost as adept at attacking the basket as he is at pulling up from long range, and the 15.8 points per game and 71 3-pointers he made last season should jump even further as Williams now puts the offensive onus on his shoulders.
Junior Cadougan enters as the unquestioned favorite to start at point guard. He gives the Golden Eagles their first true pass-first floor general in a few seasons, a trait the team seemed to thrive upon last year when he played in a backup role. His shot is improving, but with gunners like Crowder, Johnson-Odom and incoming freshman Todd Mayo (yes, O.J. Mayo’s brother) expected to fill that role, Cadougan will do well to continue to focus on distributing while also penetrating the lane when possible.
Adding depth in the backcourt will be Vander Blue, a highly rated in-state recruit who suffered through a forgettable freshman campaign, as well as incoming freshman Derrick Wilson, an undersized yet tough combo guard. Blue should earn plenty of minutes again based on his ability to defend multiple positions.
Last season’s Sweet 16 appearance energized a fan base that hadn’t experienced that type of excitement since 2003, when Dwyane Wade led the Golden Eagles to the Final Four. It also raises the expectation level heading into Year 4 of Williams’ tenure. Once again courted in the offseason by Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M, he received a big raise to stay in Milwaukee.
Now, with as much talent as he’s had, not to mention a frontcourt that finally looks like it will be able to hold its own against the Big East’s best, the belief is that the Golden Eagles should be able to make another deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
Big East Prediction: 5th
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Two & Out
After playing in the NCAA Tournament last year for the first time since 2005, Cincinnati is now fully healed and ready to retake its place as one of the better programs in the country. Coach Mick Cronin, who was rewarded with a new six-year contract worth $1.25 million per year, begins his sixth season with a mix of veterans — led by senior forward Yancy Gates — a top-25 recruiting class and several young players with enough experience to flourish in the Big East.
“We have great potential,” Cronin says. “The key for us is going to be can we become the same defensive team or better than we were a year ago because that’s why we won. If you’re going to try to be a highly successful program, you’ve got to be able to play defense. I love our talent and our returning guys but we’ve got to have the new guys fill some roles for us.”
The Bearcats lost five scholarship seniors and a lot of experience from last year’s 26–9 team, but only starting forward Rashad Bishop could be considered a major loss. The 2011-12 team should be more talented overall and could be a factor in the Big East if several of the incoming freshmen — most notably forwards Jermaine Sanders and Shaquille Thomas — can make an immediate impact.
Key Bearcats Stat: 26
The Bearcats won 26 games last season, their highest total since 2001-02, when Steve Logan led them to a 31-4 record.
At 6'9", 265 pounds, Gates has been an above-average player the past few years but has yet to take that next step to stardom. The Bearcats are hoping that will happen this season after he averaged 11.9 points and 6.9 rebounds a year ago. He’ll be joined on the front line by newcomer Cheikh Mbodj, a 6'9" forward with solid offensive skills from Grayson (Texas) College and Dakar, Senegal.
Kelvin Gaines, a 6'10" post player, was redshirted as a freshman last year and is not yet polished offensively, but he could provide a shot-blocking presence the Bearcats sorely need.
Sophomore Justin Jackson, a long-limbed 6'8" forward who plays with a lot of energy, finishes well around the basket, but he needs to improve his overall offensive skills. Sophomore Sean Kilpatrick, who made the Big East All-Rookie team last year, is a swing player who averaged 9.7 points last year and should assume more of the offensive burden after coming off the bench for most of last season.
Junior point guard Cashmere Wright, who arrived with great expectations, has been brilliant at times, but he’s also been inconsistent as he has struggled with a knee injury that sidelined him for his entire freshman season. When Wright is healthy, he has the quickness to get to the rim, though he needs to do a better job of finishing once he arrives there. He’s also a capable 3-point shooter and ball-handler. If he can stay healthy, he could blossom into one of the Big East’s top point guards.
“If he’s full strength, I really like our chances,” Cronin says. “To have a guy that’s in his fourth year of college, and his third year playing, and he’s a talented guy, we all saw when he was healthy and he was at his best, how good he was at times.”
Senior Dion Dixon, who averaged 11.6 points last season, has developed into a reliable 3-point shooter and a leader on offense. Junior JaQuon Parker, who played very little as a sophomore, worked hard during the offseason and could provide the Bearcats with another veteran scoring presence in the backcourt.
Last year was a breakthrough for the Bearcats, who satisfied their fans by returning to the NCAA Tournament, where they had landed for 14 straight years before Bob Huggins was fired. The key now is for the program to continue to grow. From a pure talent standpoint, this team should be better than last year’s, but with so many newcomers it will be difficult to replicate the chemistry and resiliency that served Cincinnati so well last year.
If Cronin can get the newcomers to buy into the team concept the way last year’s seniors did, and if he can teach them to play the same inspired defense that was the Bearcats’ trademark, Cincinnati could go further than the second round of the NCAA Tournament. For that to happen, Wright must stay healthy, and Gates must become a dominant player.
Big East Prediction: 6th
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Two & Out
Michigan State will reload with an intriguing blend of talented newcomers in the backcourt and benefit from proven warriors in the frontcourt. Look for the Spartans to extend their streak of 14 consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances and reside in the upper half of the Big Ten, but Tom Izzo will have to wait a year or two for a run at a seventh Final Four.
The Spartans lose talented but enigmatic guards Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers from last year’s team, which was a preseason top-10 squad but finished with more losses (15) than any Michigan State team since Izzo’s first season as head coach in 1996.
“I have enjoyed this team more, already,” Izzo says. “We have some talent, some young guys who want to learn, want to get better. They are going to listen. They are going to be grittier. I think we are going to have better leadership and togetherness.”
Senior power forward Draymond Green has played in a pair of Final Fours and is driven to make the Spartans a national factor again. He will need sophomore combo guard Keith Appling and sophomore post player Adreian Payne to elevate their games to star status. Both are capable of it. Major contributions are likely from freshman forward Branden Dawson and skillful guard Brandon Wood, a senior one-year transfer from Valparaiso.
Key Spartans Stat: 10
Michigan State has won at least one NCAA Tournament game in 10 of the last 14 seasons.
Green is one of the best all-around power forwards in the college game. With crafty finishing ability around the rim, and 36.6 percent accuracy from 3-point range, he causes matchup problems and can deliver the drive and dish. The two-time third-team All-Big Ten honoree has 18 career double-doubles and a pair of triple-doubles. He needs to give better effort away from the ball.
“He has to be better defensively,” Izzo says. “That’s a big key. Last year we had to play him too many minutes. He is in better shape now.”
Delvon Roe, a gifted power forward who battled injuries throughout his career in East Lansing, was forced to retire from basketball in September due to ongoing issues with his knees. Roe had 73 career starts. His toughness and experience will be sorely missed.
The Spartans need the tall and athletic Payne to tap into his immense talent. At 6'10", Payne can score in the post, or facing up with style and grace. He was slowed by a shoulder injury prior to his freshman year but is capable of a major breakthrough. With Roe no longer able to play, the pressure is on Payne to produce.
“I think Payne is going to be much improved,” Izzo says. “He has worked his tail off. He’s into it.”
Wide-bodied junior Derrick Nix started for the 2010 Final Four team but saw his role reduced as he put on bad weight. He’s tough, smart and strong, with good moves and touch when in deep, and that’s when he has been overweight. The 2011-12 version of Nix might stun people, if he maintains better physical condition.
Appling deferred to veterans last year, but he will put his combo guard gifts on display as a sophomore. He can run the point, or swing to the 2 and light it up from range. He will benefit from summer experience with Team USA’s U19 squad.
Newcomers Travis Trice and Wood will audition as point guards. If one (or both) is adept at running the team, that could enable Appling to do more on the wing.
Wood, a good leaper who can shoot from 3-point range, averaged 16.7 points last year as a first-team All-Horizon League selection at Valparaiso. Dawson, a McDonald’s All-American, might be the best rebounding wing player Izzo has ever signed.
“I think Trice and Dawson are going to help us immediately,” Izzo says.
Although the Spartans are relying on several unproven ingredients, their potential ceiling is still high, allowing Michigan State fans legitimate reasons to dream.
“I haven’t had this many questions and x-factors in a season in the last 12 or 13 years,” Izzo says. “There are a lot of unknowns. Who is going to be the point now? Is he going to adapt? If Nix keeps his weight down, if the other guys grow like I think they will — Adreian Payne especially — I think we have a chance to be real good. If they don’t, we’ll be a decent team and that will be it.”
Big Ten Prediction: 3rd
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Two & Out
No one would blame Leonard Hamilton and the Florida State men’s basketball team if they took some time to sit back and cherish the successes of the 2010-11 campaign. The Seminoles staked their claim as the third-best program in the ACC, behind only Duke and North Carolina, and they reached the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament (for the first time since 1992). Those are significant accomplishments for a Florida State program that had languished near the ACC cellar for several years before the Hamilton-led resurgence.
Yet, when talk in the Seminoles’ practice facility turns to last year, the general feeling is one of disappointment and frustration. “There was a certain amount of pain that these guys felt in the game that we lost,” Hamilton explains, referring to the Seminoles’ Sweet 16 defeat (in overtime) to VCU. “And that seems to be the driving factor.”
That motivation, combined with perhaps the most talented and experienced team he has fielded in his 10 years in Tallahassee, has Hamilton and his players believing that the coming season could be their best yet.
“Over the last six years, it’s generally accepted that we’re the third-winningest program in the ACC,” Hamilton says. “That’s fine if you are satisfied with being third. … We see no reason that we can’t be No. 1. We’re not going to be content with just being the third-winningest program in the ACC.”
Key Seminoles Stat: 51
It's been 51 years since a team in the ACC defended as well as Florida State did last season. The Seminoles led the nation in field goal percentage defense, as opponents shot 36.3 percent from the field.
There is no better indication of Hamilton’s ability to land quality big men than the fact that the Seminoles have had three frontcourt players selected in the last two NBA Drafts — forward Chris Singleton (first round, 2011), center Solomon Alabi (second round, 2010) and forward Ryan Reid (second round, 2010). And yet, this area remains the strength of the team.
Power forward Bernard James, who grabbed headlines initially because of his amazing personal story (he was a high school dropout who developed an affinity for basketball during six years in the Air Force), blossomed into a major force during the second half of the season. In only his third year of organized basketball, the junior college transfer finished the season with modest numbers (8.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.4 bpg), but he had some huge games down the stretch, including a double-double in the Seminoles’ NCAA Tournament upset of Notre Dame. And James’ teammates say he has shown even greater progress during offseason workouts and pickup games.
“His thing was never skill — it was getting to know the game,” senior shooting guard Deividas Dulkys says. “He hasn’t played a lot of competitive basketball. He’s getting so much better.”
“The leap you’re going to see in B.J. next year is gonna be tremendous,” senior guard Luke Loucks says. “It’s gonna be a whole different ballgame.”
FSU also returns 7-footer Jon Kreft and 6'11" Xavier Gibson at center, as well as several quality forwards, including emerging sophomore Okaro White.
As strange as it might sound, the Seminoles’ chances for another strong postseason could hinge upon the abilities of a point guard who will be playing for his third college in five years.
Former Iowa and Arkansas starter Jeff Peterson, who left each school after coaching changes, will be eligible to play immediately because he already has earned his bachelor’s degree. And with FSU’s uncertainties at the point — Derwin Kitchen graduated and there was no clear-cut replacement — Peterson will have an opportunity to step right in.
The Seminoles are loaded with experience in the backcourt, with Loucks, Dulkys, junior Michael Snaer and sophomore Ian Miller all returning. Miller might be the only one with star potential, though; he is an exceptional scorer but needs to improve his defense.
As experienced and talented as the Seminoles are, they clearly will have a tough time knocking North Carolina and Duke from their perch atop the ACC. The Tar Heels will be projected by many to win the 2012 national title, and the Blue Devils won’t be far behind. Yet Hamilton and his players insist they are closing the gap.
“I know a lot of our fans were excited about the Sweet 16,” Loucks says. “But we’re sitting back looking at it like, ‘Man, that could have been an NCAA championship — not a Sweet 16.’ A Sweet 16 is good, but in the end, we still haven’t won anything. We want a championship.”
ACC Prediction: 3rd
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Two & Out
During the summer, new Texas A&M coach Billy Kennedy took his team on a 10-day trip to Switzerland and France, where the Aggies played exhibition games and toured landmarks like Paris’ Eiffel Tower. Kennedy believes the tower tour will provide some foreshadowing. He fully intends on taking A&M to unprecedented heights. “My goal here is to win national championships,” says Kennedy, who coached the previous five seasons at Murray State. “(A&M women’s coach Gary) Blair was able to get a (national) championship here (last season). We need to be the next team that gets a championship here. How do you do that? You win Big 12 championships, and you put yourself in a position to win national championships.”
Kennedy inherits a program that has advanced to six consecutive NCAA Tournaments. He also assumes control of a roster that returns three starters, including six of the top eight scorers, and a couple of potential impact newcomers.
Realistically, the Aggies don’t appear to have enough overall talent yet to duplicate what the A&M women did, but it would not be too surprising to see Kennedy and Co. scale some lofty heights during March. Just as they did last summer.
Key Aggies Stat: 51
Texas A&M has 51 Big 12 victories since 2007. Prior to that, the Aggies had totaled only 43 victories in the first 10 years of Big 12 play.
Athletic forward David Loubeau considered entering the 2011 NBA Draft before deciding to return for his senior season. It was probably a wise decision, as the Miami native had an up-and-down junior year. While he averaged 11.8 points per game — second-highest on the squad — and ranked in the top three on the team in blocks, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and rebounds, Loubeau also scored seven points or fewer in five regular-season Big 12 games. “I’d like to be a lot more consistent this year,” Loubeau says. “That’s a top priority.”
Leading scorer Khris Middleton has identical goals. In his sophomore season, the slender, smooth-shooting swingman occasionally took over games. In an overtime win against Arkansas, he scored 31 and added 28 in an overtime victory over Missouri. But physical defenders occasionally took Middleton out of his game. In a home loss to Texas, he was 0-of-9 from the floor and did not score. Middleton needs to be more assertive, and Loubeau must become a dependable go-to scorer for the Aggies to take the next step.
Likewise, the tremendously athletic Ray Turner needs to add to his offensive game. Turner, who showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, injured an ankle last year and averaged only 4.0 points and 3.2 rebounds. Turner possesses the athleticism to be a great shot-blocker and solid scorer, while sophomore Kourtney Roberson has the frame (6'9", 235) and tenacity to be an enforcer. Roberson was the top freshman last year, averaging 5.6 points and 3.8 rebounds, while fellow freshman Keith Davis made steady progress as the season unfolded.
Starting point guard Dash Harris returns for his senior season, and the Aggies are hopeful that he will be a much better scoring threat. Harris had surgery on his right (shooting) wrist in the summer of 2010, and the injury hampered his shot, as he connected on only 26.8 percent from the floor and 16.7 percent from 3-point range. As a result, defenses sagged off him and dared Harris to shoot. If he can’t make more shots, A&M will turn to true freshman Jamal Branch, a talented playmaker who can score in a variety of ways, for more minutes.
The Aggies lose clutch shooter B.J. Holmes, but they may be more versatile with the addition of transfer Elston Turner. At 6'4", Turner provides more size than the 5'11" Holmes. Toward the end of his sophomore season (2009-10) at Washington, Turner showed he could shoot much like Holmes, draining 54.5 percent of his 3-point attempts in NCAA Tournament games. A&M is also hopeful that junior Naji Hibbert can have a breakthrough season. He’s played in 67 games but has only shown glimpses of being an impact player.
Mark Turgeon didn’t leave the cupboard bare when he departed for Maryland. In fact, this appears to be one of the more athletic teams A&M has fielded, perfectly suited for Kennedy’s more up-tempo offense and pressure-oriented defense. Plenty of questions still must be addressed, especially in the backcourt. But this is a program that has won at least 24 games five straight years. Kennedy’s first team in Aggieland is quite capable of matching that, contending for an upper-echelon spot in the Big 12 and making a nice run in March.
Big 12 Prediction: 3rd
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Two & Out
The mood among Missouri basketball fans was a blend of disappointment and disbelief when they learned athletic director Mike Alden had tapped Miami’s Frank Haith to succeed Mike Anderson last April. Only days earlier, they’d started dreaming about Purdue’s Matt Painter, a three-time Big Ten Coach of the Year, taking the reins, but after taking 24 hours to mull over a move to Columbia, Mo., he signed a lucrative extension to remain at his alma mater.
So Alden turned to Haith, thought to be on the hot seat with the Hurricanes after seven seasons that included one NCAA Tournament appearance and a 43–69 mark against ACC competition. Most fans wondered why they should believe he’d fare any better in the Big 12.
That still might be a reasonable question to ask long term. But Haith, a one-time understudy of Rick Barnes at Texas, is set up fairly well for success in his first season at Missouri. The Tigers feature a senior-laden nucleus, highlighted by first-team All-Big 12 guard Marcus Denmon, that reached the NCAA Tournament for a third straight season.
Key Tigers Stat: 24
With 24 more victories, seniors Marcus Denmon, Laurence Bowers, Kim English and Steve Moore will make up the winningest class in Missouri history. They have won 77 games in their first three years.
Haith prefers attacking opponents inside-out, a change from Anderson’s more wide open motion attack. The shift could benefit senior Ricardo Ratliffe, who showed an effective back-to-the-basket game last season when teammates looked to him on the low block. The 6'9" Ratliffe isn’t overly athletic, which can prove limiting against taller defenders.
The Tigers suffered a significant setback in early October when high-flying senior Laurence Bowers went down with a torn ACL in a pickup game. Bowers, a lightly recruited Memphis native, had developed into one of the top big men in the Big 12 — a force on both ends of the court.
Bowers’ absence will require senior Steve Moore to make a larger-than-expected contribution. He provides good size and is a sound, albeit slow-footed, defender. He was used primarily as a screener in his limited time (11.4 mpg) last season, but he will be asked to contribute a bit more on the offensive end in his final season.
Redshirt freshman Kadeem Green, a native of Canada who is finally healthy after rupturing his Achilles tendon as a high school senior, is raw but could prove useful off the bench because of his shot-blocking skills.
Denmon, a breakout star last season when he averaged 16.9 points, was quite simply one of the most efficient players in the country, shooting 50 percent from the field and 44.8 percent from 3-point range while committing 32 turnovers in 34 games. A Big 12 Player of the Year candidate, Denmon will be even harder to guard if he can incorporate a mid-range jumper into his game with more regularity.
Denmon is sure to see more attention, so the Tigers will need a better year from classmate Kim English, who saw his scoring average drop from 14.0 points as a sophomore to 10.0 last season. Never a high-percentage shooter, he shot a career-low 36.6 percent from the floor.
The Tigers have solid options directing the offense in junior Michael Dixon and sophomore Phil Pressey. The 6'1" Dixon was one of the Big 12’s leaders in assist-to-turnover ratio and averaged 10.3 points. The 5'10" Pressey, a crafty playmaker with exceptional quickness, showed a better than expected jumper, hitting 41.8 percent of his 3-point attempts in league play. Their lack of size can hurt defensively as they sometimes struggle to keep opposing guards out of the paint.
Senior Matt Pressey should provide depth on the wing.
Missouri appears to have plenty of offensive punch, as it did last season when the team ranked 10th nationally in scoring (80.8 ppg). But how good the Tigers can be will depend on how quickly they adjust to the slower pace Haith will have them playing and if they can do a better job rebounding and getting stops. During Big 12 play, they were outrebounded by an average of five per game and allowed opponents to shoot better than 45 percent from the field. If the new coach can shore up those weaknesses, Missouri has enough talent and experience to contend in a rebuilding Big 12. Anything less than an NCAA Tournament appearance would be a disappointment, and seniors Denmon and English — part of the Tigers’ Elite Eight team in 2009 — would really like to make a long run in their final college season.
Big 12 Prediction: 4th
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Two & Out
Sean Miller restored Arizona to prominence with unexpected swiftness, requiring two seasons to turn the Wildcats into Pac-10 champions and 30-game winners. Yet the offseason was marked with uncertainty. Miller briefly pursued the coaching vacancy at Maryland; Pac-10 Player of the Year Derrick Williams left school, opting for the NBA Draft; and starting point guard Lamont “Momo” Jones transferred to Iona.
But Miller has recruited so well since moving to Tucson in the spring of 2009 that the Wildcats are unlikely to miss Jones, and they have enough depth and incoming talent to contend for the first Pac-12 title even without Williams. “We’re going to continue to win,” says junior forward Solomon Hill. “This is just the start of another long run at Arizona.”
After flirting with Maryland, Miller accepted a contract extension through 2015-16 and, in a burst of damage control, assured Arizona fans that he would remain in Tucson “unconditionally” and “for the long haul.”
This was met with great relief in Tucson, which remains edgy following a bumpy coaching transition from Lute Olson to Kevin O’Neill to Russ Pennell and finally to Miller.
“We’re not yet where we’re going to get,” says Miller. “We’re going to have more talented teams, and more experienced teams, than the one that reached the Elite Eight.”
Arizona was a failed 3-point attempt from beating eventual national champion UConn and advancing to the Final Four. Its roster is stocked at levels typical of Olson’s glory days.
Miller is not taking his foot from the accelerator. He donated $250,000 of a $3 million project to help the school add a basketball-only strength and conditioning center in its relatively new practice arena adjacent to McKale Center. By doing so, he insisted that all of his players spend the summer in Tucson to work out together. “It’s easier to work in the summer knowing what the prize is,” he says. “Once you’ve had a taste of success, as we did, you’d be surprised how eager and hungry all of our guys are to get back to that level.”
Key Wildcats Stat: 34
Since 1988, Arizona has had 34 players selected in the NBA Draft, the most in the nation in that period. Fifteen of those have been first-round choices.
Seven players will compete for three spots, including the one vacated by Williams. Juniors Kevin Parrom and Hill are interchangeable and versatile, playing on the wing and inside. Both have averaged at least 20 minutes per game in each of the past two season and seem ready to become all-conference-type players.
They will be in a mix with senior Jesse Perry, whose first season in the Pac-10 was a success. In about 20 minutes per game, Perry averaged 6.6 points and 4.4 rebounds and was a useful defensive player.
The most intriguing inside player is 6'11" junior Kyryl Natyazhko, who has now played 69 college games and will be given a chance for an expanded role as a defensive player, screen-setter and rebounder. He has a surprisingly good shooting touch from 12 to 18 feet.
Freshmen Sidiki Johnson and Angelo Chol are expected to challenge for immediate playing time, pushing Parrom, Hill, Perry and Natyazhko.
With Jones gone, Arizona loses an aggressive, vocal player who often got by as much on bravado as he did talent. It seemed to work with such a young team. But now that sophomore combo guard Jordin Mayes appears ready to take on an expanded role, challenging senior Kyle Fogg for minutes, Jones became expendable. Mayes is a skilled 3-point shooter and ball-handler. Fogg is the club’s defensive stopper and a reliable scorer who has 85 career starts. Senior Brendon Lavender, a role player, is the team’s top 3-point shooter, according to Miller
Arizona’s two marquee newcomers are point guard Josiah Turner and shooting guard Nick Johnson, a pair of top-30 national recruits who could play their way into the starting lineup.
Miller’s third Arizona team has a roster that goes 11 deep and doesn’t appear to have many holes. The most telling challenge will be how long it takes the four freshmen to become capable Pac-12 performers. But even if the process takes a bit longer than expected, Miller can lean on seven returning players with considerable NCAA Tournament experience.
Don’t look for the star-power from one player the way Williams led the team last year. This time, if Arizona has a star or two, it is likely to be a freshman guard.
Pac-12 Prediction: 3rd
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Two & Out
They weren’t exactly pouring champagne around Westwood last year, but after UCLA rebounded from one of its worst seasons in six decades, the bubbly might just be back on ice. And with Derrick Williams and a host of other top players in the Pac-12 off to the NBA, Ben Howland and Co. might be set to uncork another conference championship. While the Bruins weren’t immune to the latest league-wide jettison of talent — they lost junior shooting guard Malcolm Lee and sophomore small forward Tyler Honeycutt to the NBA — they return budding big man Joshua Smith, feisty power forward Reeves Nelson and steady senior point guard Lazeric Jones, while adding former North Carolina forwards David and Travis Wear.
The key will be backcourt depth, as a slew of transfers and recruiting misfortunes has landed Howland in precarious territory. If he’s able to navigate a traveling road show as Pauley Pavilion undergoes renovations, Howland could be looking at his first league championship since winning three straight from 2006-08.
Key Bruins Stat: 0
With Pauley Pavilion undergoing long-overdue rennovations, the Bruins will play precisely zero true home games as they take their show on the road.
If Smith is able to spend more time cleaning the glass and less time cleaning his plate, he could be up for conference Player of the Year honors come season’s end. After a freshman season in which he dazzled with his raw power and savvy around the basket, Smith was called upon to shed even more weight in order to boost his minutes and productivity. But he reportedly gained 10 pounds over the offseason, and it seems that the extra pounds may keep him from reaching his full potential.
Nelson, meanwhile, is one of the top physical specimens in the game and gets every last drop of production out of his 6'8", 235-pound frame. One of the more intimidating players in the conference, with an icy stare and a snarl to match, Nelson was at times a one-man wrecking crew for the Bruins, boasting 12 double-doubles. Nelson plays with a chip on his shoulder, and if he can harness his frustrations into positive energy, he’ll also be in the conference POY race.
That is, if he can fend off the Tobacco Road Twins, David and Travis Wear, the formerly highly coveted forwards who spent a year with the Tar Heels before heading back out west. The Wears grew weary of the Carolina hoops scene and longed to return home, to Howland’s delight, as they bring a pair of big bodies with fundamental skills. Their numbers weren’t overwhelming with UNC, but they are expected to make an instant impact in Howland’s deliberate system, and along with backup center Anthony Stover and power forward Brendan Lane, they’ll add crucial depth.
Hailed as one of the jewels in what was expected to be a game-changing recruiting class in 2008 — alongside Lee, Jrue Holiday, Drew Gordon and J’mison “Bobo” Morgan — Jerime Anderson was projected to play a major role for the Bruins throughout his career. Now the only one of the five to remain, Anderson will indeed determine UCLA’s fate this year, but for all the wrong reasons. Anderson was arrested on charges of grand theft after allegedly stealing a laptop on campus in late July, and his status for the season is in doubt.
Now the onus is on Jones to blossom into a top point guard in the conference, which he showed flashes of doing before numerous bumps and bruises caught up to him late in the year. The former junior college standout averaged 9.1 points and a team-high 3.6 assists but shot only 38.6 percent from the field as a nagging wrist injury altered his release. Fellow junior college transfer De’End Parker could see extended time at point guard if Howland throws the book at Anderson, but Parker is more natural at the off-guard and small forward spots.
Freshman Norman Powell is in line for major minutes at shooting guard.
If Lee and Honeycutt had returned, the Bruins could have been looking at another Final Four run for Howland; as it stands, UCLA should be projected to win the inaugural Pac-12 championship with the league’s top frontcourt, although the lack of backcourt depth will be a concern.
But after a 14–18 season in 2009-10, UCLA fans are understandably enthused that the downfall did not spiral even further, and that the Bruins appear to be heading back to the top of the conference standings.
Pac-12 Prediction: 1st
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Two & Out
A year ago, after losing four senior starters from the school’s first Pac-10 championship team in a half-century, the Golden Bears were expected to finish near the bottom of the conference. They wound up tied for fourth, and with four starters back this time, no one is counting them out again. “One would assume, if we improve a little bit, we should be able to make a little stronger push,” coach Mike Montgomery says.
The Bears have tough-minded seniors in Jorge Gutierrez and Harper Kamp and a budding star in sophomore Allen Crabbe. How far they climb the Pac-12 ladder will depend on their ability to match up in the frontcourt and develop better depth than a year ago.
But the backcourt is excellent, no team in the league has more experience, and Montgomery provides an edge on the bench in almost every game. Don’t be surprised when the Golden Bears return to the NCAA Tournament for the third time in four seasons.
Key Golden Bears Stat: 82.9
The Golden Bears return 82.9 percent of their scoring from 2010-11 conference play. No team in the Pac-12 can match that number.
Kamp may not be quite 6'8" like he’s listed, but he’s smart, tough and efficient. He played all 55 minutes and scored 33 points in a triple-overtime loss to Arizona. “We ran him into the ground last year,” says Montgomery, noting that Kamp needed much of the spring to heal up. “We expect him to still have a leadership role and be a very effective player in our league.”
The Bears need a leap forward from sophomore forward Richard Solomon, who is quick and athletic but must develop a back-to-the-basket game. “Richard has got to be better,” says Montgomery. “He’s young, and he will be better.”
Junior Bak Bak has made slow progress, but he will be the first post player off the bench. He must become a player the Bears can depend on. Freshmen David Kravish and Christian Behrens will get the opportunity to show what they can do from the start. Junior walk-on Robert Thurman is the Bears’ only true center.
The Bears feature two all-conference caliber players at the wings in Gutierrez and Crabbe. Gutierrez has evolved from purely a defensive pest to an all-around talent. He plays with a fast motor, loves to disrupt the opponent’s flow and has steadily improved his offense to the point where he scored 34 points in a win over UCLA last season. “Jorge gets about all the mileage out of himself that he can,” Montgomery says. “He does so many things to help you win.”
While Gutierrez perhaps has been underrated, Crabbe earned Pac-10 Freshman of the Year honors last season after averaging 16.4 points in conference play, including 30 in a win over Washington State. He owns a great perimeter stroke and showed signs of being more effective off the dribble.
Brandon Smith took over the point after freshman Gary Franklin Jr., transferred one game into the Pac-10 schedule. Smith solidified the club, allowing everyone to settle into roles that made the offense more efficient. “Brandon really saved our bacon,” Montgomery says.
Sophomore Justin Cobbs, a transfer from Minnesota, can play either guard spot. Sophomore Emerson Murray hopes to be quicker after offseason surgery to have a plate removed from his foot. Alex Rossi, regarded as an excellent 3-point shooter, returns after sitting out last season with groin and hernia ailments.
The Bears got the chance to test-drive their new model during an August tour of Northern Europe, which afforded them 10 extra days of practice and five exhibition games. Montgomery wanted to see how the team would function without 6'7" widebody Markhuri Sanders-Frison, the club’s only departed senior. He wanted a look at Solomon’s progress, and he got his first glimpse of what he can expect from his two freshman forwards, Kravish and Behrens.
Montgomery acknowledges that there are variables that could impact how the season unfolds. “Depth was an issue for us last year,” he says. “We need Rossi to be able to play. We need Emerson to come back strong. Harper has to be 100 percent. Right now, we don’t know those things.”
Even assuming good health, Cal won’t overpower most Pac-12 foes. But there is a mix of grit, smarts, experience and skill that should keep the Bears near the top of the conference and punch their ticket for the NCAA Tournament.
Pac-12 Prediction: 2nd
NCAA Tournament Prediction: Two & Out