Articles By Athlon Sports
The reality in the NFL is that teams generally can’t afford slow starts. Unlike in other sports, there just aren’t enough games to absorb an early stumble. The percentage of teams that lose their opener and go on to make the playoffs is low. It’s exponentially lower for 0-2 teams, and the odds are virtually non-existent at 0-3.
So there are seven teams, all 0-2, on the dangerous hot seat as they head into a “must-win” Week 3 showdown against somebody. Most of them probably already have no shot at making the playoffs. Anyone that loses next week definitely won’t.
So of the seven two-time losers, who has the best shot at pulling off a stunning turnaround and salvaging their season? Here’s a look at their chances in order of most likely to save their season all the way down to most likely to already be done:
New Orleans Saints (Next up: vs. Minnesota Vikings) – They were victimized by two surprising collapses and some shockingly bad performances by their once-respected defense. But it’s important to remember that both their first two losses were on the road (at Atlanta, at Cleveland). They still have the ability to score in bunches (they are 2nd in the NFL with 29 points per game and 3rd with 434.5 yards) and they still have all-pro quarterback Drew Brees and an assortment of weapons. Their return to the Superdome to face a Vikings team reeling from the Adrian Peterson mess should be one of the easiest bets of the year, and don’t be surprised if the Saints take off from there.
Indianapolis Colts (Next up: at Jacksonville Jaguars) – Whom did the Colts anger in the NFL office that they drew an opening game at Denver and a Week 2 game against the Philadelphia Eagles? That immediately put their thin defense, their powerful offense, and their come-from-behind abilities to the test. They nearly did pull things out in Denver, falling by a touchdown, and their defense coughed up the game against the Eagles. The Jaguars, Ravens and Texans are next, which should give Andrew Luck and his team a chance to get right back on track.
New York Giants (Next up: vs. Houston Texans) – They have looked absolutely terrible in the first two games, on offense and on defense. But here’s the thing: They spent $116 million in the offseason to improve the roster and they brought in a whole new offensive coaching staff. They are destined to be better than they were last year, but putting all the pieces together will take time. They don’t have that, of course, but they’ll buy themselves some if they can beat the Texans at home on Sunday. Eli Manning and the offense showed signs of life in a loss to Arizona, and in theory it will only get better from there.
Kansas City Chiefs (Next up: at Miami Dolphins) – Their offensive line has been terrible and their already shaky offense has paid the price, and that was before the loss of running back Jamaal Charles. And really, this was coming last season when the Chiefs faded as bad as anyone down the stretch. The problem now is the schedule does them no favors. The Dolphins look pretty good, they play the Patriots, then at San Francisco, then at San Diego. They may be the best of the remaining 0-2 teams, but forget about them turning this around during a stretch like that.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Next up: at Atlanta Falcons) – You were expecting more out of a Josh McCown led offense on a team where Jonathan Martin gets just nine carries in two games. Lovie Smith took over a rebuilding project in Tampa and it’s obviously going to take some time. Last week’s game against St. Louis was his best opportunity to get an early win. Now the Bucs hit the road for a three-game trip against the Falcons, Steelers and Saints? They just don’t have the horses on either side of the ball to keep up.
Oakland Raiders (Next up: at New England Patriots) – They had to know there were always going to be growing pains the moment they made a late switch to rookie quarterback Derek Carr. At that moment, the Raiders season ceased being about this year and started focusing on 2015. And back-to-back losses to two beatable opponents – the Jets and Texans – only cemented that fact. It won’t get any easier in future weeks with the Patriots, Dolphins, Chargers and Cardinals up next in order. And don’t forget they still have a home-and-away looming with the Denver Broncos, too.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Next up: vs. Indianapolis Colts) - There was a moment in their opener, when they led 17-0 at halftime against the Philadelphia Eagles, where it looked like everyone was wrong about the Jaguars and they had finally turned their fortunes around. In the six quarters since then, though, they were outscored by the Eagles and Washington Redskins 75-10. They stink on defense. They stink on offense. And they were blown out by two teams in a division (the NFC East) that might end up stinking too. Their 0-2 start could turn into 0-6 or worse in a blink of an eye. They should think about turning the show over to rookie quarterback Blake Bortles so they can focus on their future, because at this point it sure looks like they’ll be a contender again for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
—By Ralph Vacchiano
No. 22 Syracuse moves into 2014-15 with a freshman point guard and a handful of role players expected to take starring roles. Jim Boeheim has major personnel challenges, but he’s rebuilt a roster in short order before.
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Jim Boeheim has been through this before. Of course, a coach who’s been around for 38 years has probably experienced just about all there is in college basketball.
Boeheim is used to players leaving his program early. And over the years, the veteran coach has done a remarkable job of guiding his teams to successful seasons following the loss of a star player. The year after Pearl Washington left, Syracuse went to the NCAA championship game. Following Billy Owens’ departure, Syracuse won 22 games and went back to the NCAA Tournament. After Carmelo Anthony led Syracuse to the 2003 NCAA championship, Syracuse went to the Sweet 16 the next season.
In recent years, Boeheim has seen Donté Greene, Jonny Flynn, Dion Waiters, Fab Melo and Michael Carter-Williams leave school early for the NBA. In the next season, Syracuse has never failed to reach the NCAA Tournament.
So here are Syracuse and Boeheim again. In this case, Boeheim is having to deal with the loss of three starters from last year’s team that went 28–6 overall after winning its first 25 games. The loss of C.J. Fair, who led the Orange in scoring as a senior, was expected. Then Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant decided to cut their college careers short, leaving Boeheim with yet another rebuilding job.
No. 22 Syracuse Facts & Figures
Last season: 28-6, 14-4 ACC
Postseason: NCAA round of 32
Consecutive NCAAs: 6
Coach: Jim Boeheim (948-319 at Syracuse, 14-4 ACC)
ACC Projection: Fifth
Postseason Projection: NCAA round of 32
Syracuse struggled to score in 2013-14. The Orange averaged just 68 points per game, their lowest output since the 1962-63 season. And Syracuse’s most consistent scoring came from a frontcourt that’s now depleted.
Fair averaged a team-high 16.5 points per game. Grant chipped in with 12.1 points. The only returning starter is senior center Rakeem Christmas, who posted 5.8 points and 5.1 rebounds.
“Rak’s getting better,” Boeheim says. “He’s a late-developing big guy. I think he’s figured it out. He’ll have a good year.”
DaJuan Coleman, who started 12 games last year, is coming off his second knee surgery in as many seasons, and Boeheim doesn’t expect him to return to the court until October at the earliest.
That leaves Boeheim with a frontcourt that’s both young and thin. He’ll look to sophomores Tyler Roberson and B.J. Johnson along with incoming freshman Chris McCullough. Chino Obokoh, a 6-10 center, redshirted last season and could provide some depth this year.
Don’t be surprised if Michael Gbinije, a 6-7 combo guard, sees some time at small forward due to the Orange’s lack of depth up front.
Syracuse’s backcourt situation is a little steadier than its frontcourt, but there is still one gaping hole to fill. Ennis played superbly as a freshman last year. He proved to be the ultimate playmaker, doling out 5.5 assists per game against just 1.7 turnovers. Kaleb Joseph, a 6-2 freshman, will be the fourth starting point guard in as many years for Syracuse. He’s a terrific athlete, but will he have the poise and maturity that enabled Ennis to handle the position as a freshman?
Trevor Cooney, a 6-4 junior, is coming off an up-and-down season, which was his first as a starter. Through SU’s first 22 games, Cooney was making 44 percent of his 3-point attempts, but he slumped in the final third of the season. He finished the year at 37.5 percent from the arc. Gbinije, a former top-40 national recruit, played both guard positions last year and will again in 2014-15. After shaking off the rust of the redshirt year taken after his transfer from Duke, Gbinije should provide more consistent contributions as a junior.
Ron Patterson, a 6-2 guard, didn’t see any meaningful minutes as a freshman. This could be a make or break year for the Indiana native.
This could be one of Boeheim’s biggest challenges in years. When previously facing major personnel losses, Boeheim has had a young player like Sherman Douglas, Wes Johnson, Carter-Williams or Fair waiting in the wings.
For this year’s Orange to earn an NCAA Tournament berth for the 32nd time in Boeheim’s 39 years, Christmas must emerge as a scoring option down low, Roberson will have to take a big jump as a sophomore, and McCullough and Joseph — the two true freshmen — will have to play like upperclassmen.
Syracuse brings in just two freshmen, but in all likelihood, both will start for the Orange this season. Kaleb Joseph figures to step into the starting point guard role. Chris McCullough is the prototypical Syracuse forward. He’s long and lean. McCullough averaged 22 points and 9.0 rebounds per game at IMG Academy last year.
Michigan continues our top 25 countdown at No. 23 as the Wolverines look to replace Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III and more. Michigan has bounced back quickly before under John Beilein. Will that trend continue in 2014-15?
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All those years wandering the post-Fab Five desert are over in Ann Arbor, and it’s not a mirage.
Coming off a 2013 Final Four appearance that most credited to National Player of the Year Trey Burke and sidekick Tim Hardaway Jr., coach John Beilein proved his program had staying power last year. With Burke and Hardaway departed, he took his youth-laden Wolverines, featuring one senior and one junior, to a Big Ten regular-season championship and an Elite Eight appearance.
Now Beilein, a 61-year-old entering his eighth season at Michigan, gets to rebuild all over again. Three more Wolverines — Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary — bolted for the 2014 NBA Draft after two seasons, leaving U-M again as one of the youngest teams in the country.
No. 23 Michigan Facts & Figures
Last season: 28-9, 15-3 Big Ten
Postseason: NCAA Elite Eight
Consecutive NCAAs: 4
Coach: John Beilein (150-94 at Michigan, 70-56 Big Ten)
Big Ten Projection: Fifth
Postseason Projection: NCAA round of 32
The loss of McGary still stings, but the enigmatic forward played only eight games last season due to injury and was facing a yearlong ban from NCAA play due to a failed drug test. What in fact stings worse is a complete overhaul on the Michigan frontcourt.
Beilein plays only one true post player in his famed two-guard offense. That spot was split last year between two veterans who have also departed, Jordan Morgan (graduation) and Jon Horford (transfer to Florida).
What’s left is 6-10 redshirt freshman Mark Donnal, an inside-outside forward; junior forward Max Bielfeldt, a burly 6-7 career reserve; and Ricky Doyle, a 6-9 freshman. Donnal drew strong reviews for his practice play last season and is expected to earn a starting role and be the pick man in U-M’s ball-screen offense. He can step out and hit the 3, but questions remain whether he can handle the rigors of post play in the Big Ten.
Two additional freshmen, Kameron Chatman and D.J. Wilson, are likely to play offensively as wings but defend the 4 spot on the other end of the floor. Chatman, at 6-8, boasts a methodical offensive game and a high skill set. Wilson, a wiry 6-8 forward, is athletic but needs development.
Of them, only Bielfeldt has appeared in a collegiate game.
Related: Caris LeVert joins the Athlon Sports All-Junior Team
As it always has under Beilein, Michigan’s success will hinge on its guards. The 2014-15 Wolverines will go as far as the trio of Caris LeVert, Derrick Walton Jr. and Zak Irvin takes them.
LeVert is Michigan’s leading returner in points (12.9 ppg), rebounds (4.3 rpg) and assists (2.9 apg). Much of Beilein’s offense will operate through the 6-6 junior, who emerged from relative obscurity to earn All-Big Ten honors last year. Before leaving U-M as a lottery pick, Stauskas pointed out: “Caris is ready to blow up a little bit. I think Caris is ready to make that jump to a star player.”
The hope is that Walton and Irvin can take similar freshman-to-sophomore leaps seen from LeVert and Stauskas. Walton is a true point guard but will look to increase his scoring and is capable of doing so. Irvin, a 42.5 percent 3-point shooter, is a gifted 6-6 scorer needing to prove he can be versatile offensively and add rebounding on both ends.
Junior point guard Spike Albrecht returns as a steadying force in the backcourt and a threat from 3-point distance. Freshmen Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Aubrey Dawkins, a pair of wings who signed late in the spring, add depth and will look to crack the rotation.
With every starting player from its 2013 Final Four appearance having entered the NBA early, Michigan is a clean slate.
From last year’s roster, Stauskas, Robinson, Morgan and Horford accounted for 54.5 percent of the team’s total points, 55.8 percent of its made field goals and 52.4 percent of its rebounds.
That’s gone, but the expectations aren’t. Beilein’s system has proven resilient and is bolstered by a keen eye on the recruiting trail. Having already rebuilt Michigan, Beilein says this team “isn’t starting over.”
“I think the foundation is there and now we have to start putting the bricks back in,” he adds.
Starting in the backcourt, Michigan has the talent to return to the NCAA Tournament and potentially compete for a top-three Big Ten finish. Youth, scoring options and questions surrounding rebounding and interior defense, though, leave plenty of uncertainty.
Six of Michigan’s 12 scholarship players are first-year freshmen, while a seventh belongs to redshirt frosh Mark Donnal, a potential starter. Kameron Chatman, a top-50 recruit, should make an immediate impact. D.J. Wilson and Ricky Doyle add much needed length. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Aubrey Dawkins, (Johnny’s son) were late signees and add depth.
Earlier this year, the San Francisco 49ers moved out of their old digs at Candlestick Park and into their new home, the $1.2 billion Levi’s Stadium. The Santa Clara, Calif., venue, which seats approximately 68,500, is more than just a place to catch a game; it’s a cathedral to football and an homage to the Silicon Valley. And it’s blowing fans’ minds. Here’s why:
1. It's Wired!
Befitting a stadium in the heart of the Silicon Valley, you're never more than 10 feet away from a wireless hotspot. Seventy miles of Wi-Fi specific cable offer 40GB/s of bandwidth (40 times more than any other stadium). Which is good, because…
2…You’re Plugged In
The 49ers’ new app lets you order food for pickup or have it delivered to your seat (for an extra $5), gives you turn-by-turn directions to locations like bathrooms and parking areas, and allows access to real-time instant replays. Speaking of which…
3. Comprehensive Instant Replay
Thirteen stadium cameras and a TV crew of 40-plus will be filming the game, providing at least six replay angles of every play, making attendees the most informed armchair referee in the league.
4. It's Green (figuratively)
Levi’s Stadium’s 38,000 square feet of solar panels soak up the sun and keep the stadium running on its own electricity.
5. It’s Green (literally)
The natural grass stadium has a 27,000-square-foot garden on the roof of the suite tower is made up of local plants that require minimal water. It soaks up heat, minimizes the HVAC cooling requirements, and grows herbs for the concession stands.
6. Eat Up!
Want a burger? How about a jalapeno cheddar kielbasa? The fare at Levi’s Stadium befits the area’s foodie atmosphere. Vegan franks, curry stations, crepe desserts and Chef Michael Mina’s onsite Bourbon Steak and Pub restaurant give “stadium food” a whole new meaning. There’s even an $18 Double Barrel Wagyu topped with pork chicharrones that may be the craziest hot dog in sports.
7. Pedestrian Expressways
They've organized the pedestrian walkways to be more efficient than Candlestick: the food lines don't intersect with the bathroom lines anymore, and they've created lanes on the exterior of the stadium so you don't have to wade through the food lines to get from one end of the stadium to the other.
8. It’s Drought-Friendly
All of the plumbing fixtures are low flow, almost twice as efficient than building code requirements, and 85 percent of the water used is recycled water provided by the city.
9. It's LOUD!
The lower bowl has over 45,000 seats (one of the largest in the NFL), and the glass-fronted box seats on the West side will provide a reverberating effect. The result could spell an end to Seattle’s title as the NFL’s loudest stadium.
As college football evolves into the playoff era, the Legends Poll is changing with it. Each week the Legends Poll will release its Top 8 teams, which its panel of voters believe will inevitably be the next step in the evolution of the playoffs.
And in the first release of the 2014 season, the SEC West dominated the rankings, making up half of the Top 8.
Florida State opened up where it left off last season at No. 1, and will face its first true test against Clemson at home this coming weekend.
Second-ranked Oregon has impressed the Legends Poll panel with its tough early slate of games — knocking off Michigan State in week two. No. 3 Alabama and No. 4 Oklahoma rounded out the Top 4.
Auburn debuted at No. 5, followed by Texas A&M, Baylor, and LSU to round out the Top 8.
What looked like a lackluster slate of games this past Saturday turned out to be anything but.
Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks pulled out an upset victory over Georgia, considered a heavy favorite going in to win the SEC East, 38-35. The loss kept Georgia out of the top 8.
USC and Virginia Tech had come off an emotional high after knocking off Stanford and Ohio State, respectively just a week ago. But Boston College stunned USC 37-31 and East Carolina upset Virginia Tech 28-21.
To see the individual votes by coach, visit the Legends Poll.
|1||Florida State (10)||2-0||106||-|
The third week of the season was not quite the bounce back week the Big Ten may have been hoping for, but there were a few good things happening around the conference after a dismal week two. Let’s dive into some of the numbers from around the Big Ten this past week and the first three weeks of the college football season.
10 Amazing College Football Stats from Week 3 in the Big Ten
2: Number of FBS teams with a winning record beaten by Big Ten teams
Time will tell how telling this stat is with a number of victories over schools projected to have winning records by the end of the season off to slow starts, but the numbers tell the story of how difficult it has been for the Big Ten through the first three weeks. Ohio State’s victory over Navy and Minnesota’s win over Middle Tennessee are the only FBS victories the Big Ten has claimed over teams with a winning record. Penn State’s victory over Rutgers does not count, of course.
2: Number of undefeated teams in the Big Ten entering Week 4
Nebraska and Penn State are the only unbeaten teams left standing amid the Big Ten rubble, just as we all predicted at the start of the season. It is fair to say other top contenders in the Big Ten (Wisconsin, Michigan State) have faced a stiffer challenge with games against LSU (Wisconsin) and Oregon (Michigan State), both coming away from home. Credit to Nebraska for picking up a win on the west coast in Week 3 at Fresno State. Penn State also has a win in Ireland, giving the Big Ten wins on three coastlines this season. Penn State is one of three schools with a home, road and neutral site win in the first three weeks (UCLA, Ole Miss).
3: Big Ten quarterbacks averaging at least 6.0 yards per rushing attempt
You thought Braxton Miller was the only dual-threat quarterback in the Big Ten? Think again. Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong leads the Big Ten in average rushing yardage per carry with 9.56 yards per attempt. Wisconsin’s Tanner McEvoy is also picking up good yardage when he tucks the ball, averaging 6.33 yards per carry. Maryland quarterback C.J. Brown rushed for a game-high 161 yards against West Virginia to raise his average to 6.26 yards per carry. All three appear in the top ten in the Big Ten in this category.
4: Big Ten teams with a perfect scoring percentage in the red zone
You can pile up the big yards all you want, but what you do in the red zone will ultimately be a difference maker at some point during a season. So far, so good when Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota and Northwestern get inside the opponent’s 20-yard line as all four have left the field putting points on the scoreboard. Minnesota has had the most success in their red zone trips by scoring a touchdown each time they reach the red zone. Of course, all four have struggled at times just getting inside the 20-yard line. All four are in the bottom half of the Big Ten in total red zone opportunities (MSU and Northwestern have also only played two games).
9: Second-half lead changes between Indiana and Bowling Green
Talk about a seesaw battle. Indiana held on to a 14-13 lead at the half on the road against preseason MAC favorite Bowling Green, but things went off the hook after the break. The Hoosiers and Falcons exchanged the lead nine times before Bowling Green got the last laugh with a short touchdown pass with nine seconds to play.
11: Straight games Indiana running back Tevin Coleman has scored a touchdown
Indiana’s talented running back rushed for 190 yards and a trio of touchdowns against Bowling Green, earning quality losing effort status in week three. With Coleman’s trip to the end zone, he ties a school record for most consecutive games with a touchdown scored.
52: Red zone points scored by Ohio State vs. Kent State
The Buckeyes scored seven touchdowns inside the red zone against in-state foe Kent State. Just for good measure, Ohio State added a field goal to the mix as well as the Buckeyes dominated Kent State from start to finish. On nine trips to the red zone, Ohio State scored points on eight.
30-1: Ohio State’s record against schools from the MAC
With Ohio State’s victory over Kent State, the Buckeyes added to their dominant and lopsided winning record against the MAC. At least somebody is beating the MAC. The Big Ten has already lost three games to the MAC this season and a MAC school has defeated a Big Ten team in eight straight seasons. Ohio State also extended its winning streak over in-state opponents to 39 straight games. That will be challenged by Cincinnati after a bye week this weekend for the Buckeyes.
39: Blocked kicks by Rutgers since 2009
Forget about Virginia Tech and Beamer Ball. It is well past time to start giving props to what Rutgers is doing on special teams. On Saturday night the Scarlet Knights added to more to their FBS-leading blocked kick total since 2006 by blocking one Penn State field goal attempt by Sam Ficken and later blocking a punt.
43.9: Percent of third downs converted for first downs by the Big Ten
There are only 22 schools around the country that have converted at least 50 percent of their third down opportunities for first downs, but just two of those reside in the Big Ten. Indiana (51.7%) and Northwestern (51.2%) have kept drives alive on third down plays to lead the conference, respectively. Iowa (49.0%), Penn State (47.9%) and Illinois (46.2%) have been respectable as well, but it has been a surprise to see Ohio State (38.9%) and Wisconsin (37.0%) struggle on third downs early on this season.
College basketball season is creeping up fast, and Athlon Sports is counting down to Midnight Madness and the start of practice on Oct. 17.
Harvard continues our countdown at No. 24 as the Crimson continue an unprecedented in program history under Tommy Amaker. After three consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, could Harvard be ready to take the next step and reach the Sweet 16?
A full preview of Harvard and the entire Ivy League are available in every edition, available on newsstands everywhere this week and in the online store.
The Crimson are looking for their fourth consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament, and despite losing three cornerstones of the program’s success, Tommy Amaker has more than enough left in the cupboard to get his team back to the NCAAs.
Three seniors — Kyle Casey, Brandyn Curry and Laurent Rivard — are gone. Casey and Rivard were 1,000-point scorers, and Curry was a versatile guard who provided leadership throughout his career. They will all be sorely missed, but Amaker still has plenty of talent.
This team may not appear as powerful as the one that knocked off Cincinnati in the NCAA Tournament, but it has terrific, veteran guards in Wesley Saunders and Siyani Chambers and no shortage of size to dominate Ivy League foes.
The question isn’t whether Amaker, who spurned Boston College this past offseason to remain at Harvard, will have enough to claim another league title. That’s almost a given. But it’s whether he can pull off a third consecutive win in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.
Harvard Facts & Figures
Last season: 27-5, 13-1 Ivy
Postseason: NCAA round of 32
Consecutive NCAA appearances: 3
Coach: Tommy Amaker (138-70, 67-31 Ivy)
Ivy Projection: First
Postseason projection: Round of 32
Harvard is deep and talented on the front line this season, especially with the return of Kenyatta Smith and the addition of freshman Chris Egi.
Senior forward Steve Moundou-Missi is a virtual lock to start after averaging 10.5 points and 6.0 boards last season. After that, it’s anyone’s guess who gets the nod. Smith logged just two minutes a year ago due to a foot injury, but he’s healthy now and gives Amaker a guy who can score in the post. Two years ago, Smith averaged 5.8 points and 4.3 rebounds as a part-time starter. Those numbers could double with more playing time.
Heralded top-100 recruit Zena Edosomwan played sparingly last season as a freshman, but the 6-9, 250-pound California native will find a way to get on the court more due to his physical presence and high motor.
Senior Jonah Travis is an undersized forward who does all the dirty work. He filled in admirably last season with Smith out of the lineup. Junior Evan Cummins is 6-9 and has made strides in each of his two seasons in the program. Egi is a 6-9 athlete from Canada who also had offers from Florida and UConn.
Perimeter depth is a cause for concern in Cambridge, but Amaker has two of the best guards in the league — and maybe even in the nation. Saunders is the reigning Ivy League Player of the Year after leading the team in scoring last season at 14.2 points per game and ranking in the top 10 in the league in seven statistical categories. He will team with Chambers, a junior point guard who does everything Amaker needs from the position. The 6-0 Chambers scores (11.1 ppg), distributes (4.6 apg) and also shoots it (38 percent 3-pointers).
The key here, though, is who else steps up to help out Saunders and Chambers on the perimeter. Candidates include Corbin Miller, who played in 2011-12 before spending the last two years on a LDS Church mission; long and athletic 6-8 junior Agunwa Okolie and 6-5 freshman wing Andre Chatfield. Miller may be the most likely to step in due to his experience and, more important, his ability to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. He shot 45.6 from 3 as a freshman.
Veteran guard Matt Brown, who also plays wide receiver for the Harvard football team, could figure into the equation as well due to his toughness and defensive intensity.
Saunders and Chambers aren’t just talented and among the best at their position in the country, but they also bring experience to the table. Amaker has six big men he can rotate in and out of the lineup, if he so chooses.
The key, though, will be whether the Crimson can find a wing to complement the backcourt duo. Harvard will miss Rivard’s ability to space the floor and knock down shots. Miller could be the missing piece.
It’s Harvard and then everyone else in the Ivy — even after losing three seniors who helped build the program. But the goal now is whether the Crimson can make noise in the postseason, and its guards certainly give them a chance.
Corbin Miller returns from an LDS Church mission after averaging 3.8 points as a freshman in 2011-12. Chris Egi, a Canadian who played at Montverde (Fla.) Academy, is the highest rated of the three freshmen. Andre Chatfield will have a chance to play on the wing. Zach Yoshor will have a tough time carving out a role on a deep front line.
College basketball season is creeping up fast, and Athlon Sports is counting down to Midnight Madness and the start of practice on Oct. 17.
Arkansas kicks off our top 25 countdown at No. 25 as we preview the Razorbacks in what they hope is a breakout season under Mike Anderson.
The Arkansas edition is one of dozens available on newsstands everywhere this week.
A streak of eight wins in a nine-game stretch, including road victories at Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and No. 17 Kentucky, appeared to have Arkansas on the brink of an NCAA Tournament berth in Mike Anderson’s third season. Then the Razorbacks inexplicably lost by 25 points at Alabama and fell to South Carolina in the SEC Tournament, and their would-be NCAA invite evaporated.
That late rejection is fuel for an Arkansas program that has shockingly not been to the NCAAs since 2008.
“I just look at the almosts,” Anderson says. “We were so close. We were just plays away from having a really, really special year. So we take that experience, and this year will be a special year.”
Arkansas boasts a roster loaded with talent, experience and depth, with veterans Ky Madden, Michael Qualls and Anthlon Bell at guard and big men Bobby Portis, Alandise Harris and Moses Kingsley supported by an improved cast of role players. Five players with starting experience and seven who averaged nine minutes or more are back from last season’s 22–12 club.
The Razorbacks led the SEC in assists (15.3 apg), steals (8.4 spg), turnover margin (+5.5) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.3), all key elements in Anderson’s full-court style. But they struggled big time on the glass and consistently allowed too many second-chance opportunities.
Anderson understands the time is now to put Arkansas back on the college basketball map.
“This is the first year (in which) most of the guys fit what I’m doing,” Anderson says. “So from that standpoint, this probably will be the best team that we field, from top to bottom.”
No. 25 Arkansas Facts & Figures
Last season: 22-12, 10-8 SEC
Postseason: NIT second round
Last NCAA appearance: 2008
Coach: Mike Anderson (59-39 at Arkansas, 26-26 SEC)
SEC Projection: Third
Postseason Projection: NCAA round of 32
Portis, who has grown to 6-11, was outstanding as a freshman, but he needs to improve his shooting (.509), rebounding (6.8 rpg) and low-post repertoire to become one of the elite big men in the nation. Portis worked at the Nike big man skills camp and the LeBron James Skills Academy in the summer and plans to have a stronger rebounding presence and upgrade his scoring and defense.
Harris provided toughness and a big-game presence last year, but he didn’t rebound enough (3.3 rpg) and too often settled for jumpers. Kingsley, now a sophomore, is a classic shot-blocking center whose offensive skills should be on the rise.
Jacorey Williams brings energy off the bench, but he has to shoot better than 39.8 percent to earn more time. Transfer Keaton Miles, a defensive standout, and signee Trey Thompson are quality players who will provide depth.
After leading the team in scoring (12.7 ppg) and assists (2.8 apg), Madden should benefit from the addition of point guards Jabril Durham and Anton Beard to allow him to play off the ball more.
Qualls was a SportsCenter regular with a variety of circus dunks, but the Hogs hope his jumper earns him more notoriety this year. Qualls had a horrendous shooting slump to open SEC play and wound up shooting 42.9 percent overall. Bell, a streaky shooter, launched a team-high 151 3-pointers and shot 33.1 percent beyond the arc, a number that must improve for the junior to merit increased playing time. His defense is just adequate.
If this Razorbacks team doesn’t make the NCAA Tournament, there will be great frustration in Fayetteville, and for good reason. Portis is a budding superstar who is driven to excel, and there are plenty of key pieces around him. The backcourt is stocked with veterans who can be distribute the ball, add scoring punch and play the kind of defense Anderson demands. This roster gives Anderson great flexibility.
How well Madden deals his role in the backcourt as the new point guards establish themselves, and whether the mercurial Bell can be a more consistent deep threat will say a lot about how far Arkansas can advance in March. The best Arkansas teams during Anderson’s 17-year tenure as an assistant to Nolan Richardson had strong defense, good rebounding, versatile talents, a few sharpshooters and great grit. If this Razorback team can deliver the grit, the ’14-15 season could be special in Fayetteville.
Keaton Miles, a 6-7 transfer from West Virginia, is a versatile forward who fits Anderson’s fast tempo style. Junior college transfer guard Jabril Durham was a good pickup. He and freshman Anton Beard are true points guards who can take some ball-handling pressure off of Ky Madden. Trey Thompson, a 6-9 forward, should give the Razorbacks a quality frontcourt reserve who can take his time to adjust to the college game.
Teams and players spent the last eight months making decisions and sticking by them, feeling good about their choices and insisting they’re convinced they made the right moves.
Then, on Opening Weekend, came the temptation to tear up the entire plan and start all over again.
That’s the way it is in the NFL, where the season is short (relatively), games are important, and the overreactions fly in the wind with the ever-changing mood. One game is enough to build regrets and to burst the bubbles of optimism. Sure it’s early, but it’s never too early to look at some of the offseason moves – or non-moves – that may have completely backfired on some players and some teams:
10. The Cowboys not drafting Johnny Manziel. Jerry Jones now says he wanted Johnny Football as a way to keep the Cowboys’ relevant, and it sure looks like they’re headed for irrelevancy quickly. Their Week 1 loss at home to the 49ers showed that Tony Romo, coming off back surgery, may not be quite ready. Either that or he’s just his usual, turnover-prone mess. Either way, you want relevant? Imagine the conversation in Dallas this week after Romo’s three-interception performance if Texas’ own Manziel was on the bench.
9. The Browns signing RB Ben Tate. The Browns only gave him a two-year, $6.2 million contract, but they entrusted him with their running game as they attempted to begin what seems like a yearly rebuilding project. That’s great, because he’s always been underrated. But it was risky because he’s also always been injury prone. So is anyone surprised that he sprained his knee in Week 1 and might be out a month?
8. The Panthers releasing WR Steve Smith. He’s 35 years old and small and expensive, so it wasn’t crazy that Carolina released the best receiver it ever had. But they had to have second thoughts after seeing his seven-catch, 118-yard, one-TD debut with the Baltimore Ravens. The Panthers had 230 yards passing and 20 points total. Sure it was Derek Anderson and QB and not the injured Cam Newton, but a receiver of Smith’s caliber sure would’ve helped.
7. The Giants not spending more on their offensive line. They spent $116 million in contracts on offseason improvements, but the only moves they made on the line – which was supposedly their “No. 1 priority” this offseason - was to sign G Geoff Schwartz (now on short-term IR) and C J.D. Walton who just played his first game in two years. The result was about what you’d expect. QB Eli Manning dropped back to pass 35 times and was hit nine times and new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo’s attack never really got off the ground.
6. Ditto for the Chiefs and their offensive line. They let Schwartz go, along with LT Branden Albert and RG Jon Asamoah and flipped 2013 first-rounder Eric Fisher over to LT as they tried to rebuild on the fly. Great move, making things less stable for a QB like Alex Smith. Not surprisingly, the Chiefs offense completely stalled and picked up just 67 yards on the ground. The leading rusher, by the way, was Smith with 36 yards. So at least, when there’s trouble – and there’ll be a lot of it this season – he can run away.
5. WR Eric Decker leaving the Broncos for the Jets. He got a five-year, $36 million contract from the Jets with $15 million guaranteed, so he can laugh on his way to the bank. But he traded QB Peyton Manning for QB Geno Smith and switched from an offense that gained 259 passing yards on a slow night on Week 1 to one that gained 190 on what might be a great night for the Jets. But hey, at least he’s got the cash.
4. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers not drafting a QB. How much does Lovie Smith and his staff hate second-year pro Mike Glennon that they’re willing to endure the 35-year-old Josh McCown, who threw two interceptions and passed for 183 yards in their opening day loss? If it really is as much as people believe, they should’ve drafted a QB at No. 7, when at that point only Blake Bortles was off the board. They may have found a keeper at that spot in WR Mike Evans, but who’s going to throw him the ball?
3. The St. Louis Rams not drafting a QB. It’s not their fault that Sam Bradford got hurt, but it wasn’t terribly surprising after he missed half of last season. Plus, he hadn’t exactly distinguished himself in the NFL yet. But instead of moving on, the Rams simply backed him up with 34-year-old veteran Shaun Hill, who is also now hurt. Now they may be in the hands of Austin Davis, a second-year pro who was undrafted and was once a walk-on at Southern Miss. … Well, Kurt Warner once came out of nowhere too, so anything is possible.
2. The Raiders trading for QB Matt Schaub. No, it didn’t cost much and neither did he, but the move in March seemed to signal that the Raiders were serious about competing. GM Reggie McKenzie and coach Dennis Allen are on hot seats and they knew they couldn’t trust Terrelle Pryor or Matt McGloin with their jobs. Well guess what? They couldn’t trust Schaub either. They drafted rookie Derek Carr, he won the job, and wasn’t awful in a tough debut against the Jets (20 of 32, 151 yards, two TDs, no INTs). He will likely experience plenty of rookie struggles. So the Raiders are back in rebuilding mode. And if they get a new coach/GM next season, they’ll be rebuilding again.
1. The Broncos letting RB Knowshon Moreno go. This won’t destroy a team that’s probably destined for the Super Bowl, but the Broncos nearly blew a big lead on Sunday night because they struggled to run the ball when they needed to protect the lead and move the clock. Montee Ball rushed 23 times for 67 yards – just 2.9 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Moreno, who had a breakout year last season, was supposed to be a product of a Denver offense that helps running backs thrive. He was supposed to come back to Earth in miserable Miami. Instead, on Opening Day, he rushed 24 times for 134 yards and a touchdown – a healthy 5.1 yards per rush.
—By Ralph Vacchiano
We're all for tradition, and honoring your region with your team nickname, but some of these are just plain weird. Here they are in no particular order of weirdness. And yes, these are real.
1. Jordan (Utah) Beetdiggers
This nickname inspires fear. If you're a beet.
2. Conway (Ark.) Wampus Cats
A Wampus cat is a fearsome creature from folklore. Doesn't stop it from sounding stupid.
3. Camas (Wash.) Papermakers
4. Kimberly (Wis.) Papermakers
Maybe they can get Dunder-Mifflin to sponsor their uniforms.
5. Badger (Wis.) Badgers
The Badger Badgers? Too bad Duany Duany, Longar Longar and Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje didn't play there.
6. Newburgh Free Academy (NY) Goldbacks
Anything with "backs" attached to the end seems like a slur.
7. Butte (Idaho) Pirates
8. Grafton/St. Thomas (ND) Spoilers
Isn't the nickname "Spoilers" a concession that you suck and can only hope to spoil a good team's season?
9. Mt. Pleasant (RI) Kilties
They've managed to take the word "kilt" and make it even more effeminate.
10. Bellows Free Academy (Vt.) Bobwhites
A bobwhite is a quail that is commonly killed and consumed. Doesn't even have much meat on it.
11. Cairo (Ga.) Syrupmakers
Sweet and sticky are not adjectives I want applied to my football team.
12. Red Bank Catholic (NJ) Caseys
The school took its nickname from a former Monsignor. It makes me think of Casey Anthony. Or Kasey Kasem.
13. Glenville (Ohio) Tarblooders
A tarblooder was apparently a railroad worker who laid ties and cemented them with tar. When you have to explain it, it loses some impact.
14. Austin Westlake (Texas) Chaparrals
They're called the "Chaps" for short. Wonder if they're assless.
15. Dunbar (Md.) Poets
It's a nod to the school's namesake, but Poets? Aren't they the guys the football players should be pummeling?
16. Mt. Clemens (Mich.) Battling Bathers
Not sure you want to combine football and bath time in your nickname.
17. St. Mary's Prep (Mich.) Eaglets
18. Rockhurst (Mo.) Hawklets
Baby birds, even eagles and hawks, don't exactly inspire fear. Hell, they can't even fly.
19. North Little Rock Charging Wildcats
Adding "Charging" seems like overkill. And is a Wildcat really known for charging?
20. Salesianum School (Del.) Sallies
This simply can't be real, can it? Was Nancies already taken?
21. Punahou (Hawaii) Buffanblu
It's not some native Hawaiian bird of prey or anything. Believe it or not, this nickname comes from the school's colors: buff and blue.
22. Shelley (Idaho) Russets
Yes, Idaho is known for potatoes. Doesn't mean you have to incorporate it into your nickname. Would be like calling a Chicago team "the Gang-Related Murders."
23. Watersmeet (Mich.) Nimrods
In the Bible, Nimrod was a mighty hunter. Nobody knows their Bible anymore. Today, a nimrod is merely a moron.
24. Orofino (Idaho) Maniacs
Many think that the team was named for the local mental hospital. Unfortunately, that's not true. It was merely the frenetic style of play the hoops team used to be known for.
25. Teutopolis (Ill.) Wooden Shoes
They're particularly loud on the basketball court. But slow.
26. Chattanooga (Tenn.) Central Purple Pounders
Sounds like a prison team.
27. Mars Area (Pa.) Fighting Planets
Sort of a "War of the Worlds" theme.
28. Beaver (Okla.) Dusters
A Beaver Duster sounds like something you'd order online. On a secure site.
29. Yuma (Ariz.) Criminals
I hope this isn't truth in advertising.
30. Freeburg (Ill.) Midgets
Surprised that the little people lobby hasn’t gotten hold of this one.
31. Webster University Gorloks
The students at Webster came up with this one. Sounds like a Lord of the Rings character.
32. UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs
Big, slimy and disgusting. Kind of like a pregnant Kardashian sister.
33. Columbia College Fighting Koalas
Putting "fighting" in front of an adorable, cuddly creature like a koala doesn't make it any scarier.
34. Presbyterian Blue Hose
I guess it's better than the Presbyterian Depressed Prostitutes.
35. Scottsdale Community College Fighting Artichokes
Ridiculous. Everyone knows artichokes are peaceful vegetables.
36. Rhode Island School of Design Nads
Yes, it's a joke, right down to the anatomically correct mascot and the "Go, Nads!" cheer.
37. Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs
I'd avoid the hot dogs at the ballpark.
38. Savannah Sand Gnats
Annoying sand-based insects are an overlooked genre for mascots.
39. Montgomery Biscuits
Hot, buttery and delicious. Paula Deen's favorite team.
40. Hillhouse (Conn.) Academics
I guess it's one way to flip the saying, "They're known for academics."
Big Ten teams experienced one of the worst weekends in Big Ten history overall, so sifting through the box scores to find 10 interesting stats was a bit of a chore. As you might suspect, most of the stats are alarming in detail and take a deeper look at
just how this weekend went so poorly, but not everything is bad. But most of it is. Proceed with caution, Big Ten fans.
10 Amazing College Football Stats from Week 2 in the Big Ten
7: Third and longs converted by Virginia Tech against Ohio State
The average distance Virginia Tech had to go to pick up a first down against the Buckeyes on Saturday night was 10.2 yards per third down, and the Hokies picked up 10 first downs on 18 third-down situations. Ohio State’s defense failed to get off the field the first five times they put Virginia Tech in a third down situation, all but one coming from five yards or more. On the flip side, Ohio State was just 4-of-16 on third down against the Hokies.
Listen to the Week 2 recap podcast:
0: Times Michigan reached the red zone against Notre Dame
To say it was a rough evening for the Wolverines in South Bend would be an understatement. Michigan managed to cross the 50-yard line on just four possessions, and the deepest Michigan would get on the field was to the Notre Dame 22-yard line. A sack on fourth down ended that late scoring threat in the fourth quarter, when it was already 31-0. Four of Michigan’s final five possessions ended with some form of turnover, with two Devin Gardner passes being intercepted, a Gardner fumble being recovered by the Irish and a turnover on downs.
0: Seconds Ohio State held a lead against Virginia Tech
It has been a little while since Ohio State last went through a full game without holding the lead. The last time Ohio State played a game without holding a lead at any point came in the 2012 Gator Bowl against Florida. Urban Meyer watched from the sidelines as his former program held off his future team that day. The last time Ohio State played a regular season game without holding a lead at any point was earlier that same season, at home against Michigan State.
1: Seconds it took for Wisconsin to score against Western Illinois
It was the fastest score in Big Ten history, and it happened in bizarre fashion. The opening kickoff to Western Illinois was mishandled by Kyle Hammonds. Hammonds let the ball leave the end zone before he got his hands on it and took a knee in the end zone for what he thought would be a touchback. That was how the game officials initially ruled it, but following a timeout and video review the play was overturned for a safety one second into the game.
20: Shutouts Michigan had pitched since last being shut out
By now you may be well aware Michigan was shut out for the first time by Notre Dame and for the first time by anyone since 1984. What you may not have realized is that Michigan had shut out opponents 20 times in between shutouts by Iowa in 1984 and this weekend’s game at Notre Dame. Included in that bath of shutouts is a pair of shutouts of the Irish, in 2007 and 2003. Notre Dame snapped a streak of 365 games for Michigan without being shut out. Florida now owns the longest active streak without being shut out, with 323 games and counting. Yes, even with that offense the Gators had last year.
10th: Christian Hackenberg’s all-time passing rank at Penn State
It took just 14 games for Penn State sophomore Christian Hackenberg to crack the school’s all-time list for career passing yards. A week after becoming the first quarterback in Penn State history to pass for 400 yards in a game, Hackenberg moved into the top 10 on the school’s passing list while also setting a new school record for most yards in back-to-back games (773 yards, edging the previous mark of 686 yards by Zack Mills in 2002 against Iowa and Wisconsin). On top of that, Hackenberg tied the school record for most career 300-yard passing games with his sixth such performance. One more and he will break the tie with Matt McGloin.
1.8: Average rushing yards per play for Illinois
Illinois managed to pull away from Western Kentucky at home thanks to a big day through the air by quarterback Wes Lunt (456 yards and three touchdowns), but the running game never got on track against the Hilltoppers. Illinois tried to run the football 35 times against Western Kentucky, and mustered just 64 yards in the game (Lunt took a loss of 17 yards). The Illini were not alone in their running ineptitude in the Big Ten this weekend, though. Northwestern managed to rush for just 1.9 yards per rushing attempt.
1: Big Ten running back who rushed for more than 87 yards
It was a bit of a strange week for the Big Ten. Just one running back managed to rush for more than 87 yards in a game this weekend. Minnesota’s David Cobb was responsible for raising the bar as best he could with a 220-yard performance against Middle Tennessee, but after Jeremy Langford’s 86 yards against Oregon, it was not a standout day for the Big Ten running backs. Cobb and Langford aside, the average rushing total for the leading running backs this weekend was 47.5 rushing yards. Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armsrong rushed for 131 yards, more than doubling the output of Huskers running back Ameer Abdullah (54 yards). Quarterbacks were the leading rushers for three Big Ten teams (Nebraska, Purdue and Ohio State).
-14: Big Ten’s collective turnover margin in Week 2
It really was an ugly week for the Big Ten. Across the conference, the Big Ten combined for a turnover margin of -18 with 31 combined turnovers to their opponents. Maryland was the most atrocious with six turnovers on the road at USF for a -5, and Michigan had a -4 at Notre Dame. Ohio State broke even with Virginia Tech but had three turnovers in the process. Penn State was a -3 at home against Akron. The only teams to record a plus turnover margin were Minnesota (+2), Wisconsin (+1), and Rutgers (+1).
-45: Scoring differential for the Big Ten vs FBS teams in Week 2
Perhaps no other stat is more telling to just how bad this weekend was for the Big Ten. Throw out the FCS opponents (which actually nets a +9 scoring differential for the Big Ten) and the Big Ten was hammered. Four Big Ten teams took double digit losses in week two (Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue). Penn State and Minnesota scored double-digit victories but the damage done elsewhere was too much to overcome for the Big Ten against FBS opponents this weekend. The Big Ten was 5-5 against FBS competition in week two.
Locks of the Week
Bank on great teams outclassing good teams and terrible teams stumbling right out of the gate.
Saints (-3) at Falcons
Sean Payton’s Saints are 8–2 against Mike Smith’s Falcons, who struggle with an inferiority complex vs. NOLA.
49ers (-5) at Cowboys
There’s no D in Big D, which will be exploited by a San Fran squad that has been to three straight NFC title games.
Jets (-5) vs. Raiders
Oakland is riding a 12-game losing streak on the East Coast — 1 p.m. Eastern is 10 a.m. Pacific Time, after all.
Broncos (-7.5) vs. Colts
Peyton Manning will have his revenge, after losing 39–33 in his Indianapolis homecoming last season.
Eagles (-10) vs. Jaguars
Bet against the Jags every week until they move to London or start Blake Bortles, whichever comes first.
Straight Up Upsets
A pair of underrated road teams take on familiar foes for ready-made underdog specials.
Titans (+3) at Chiefs
New Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt had K.C.’s number last year as the Chargers OC, winning 41–38 in Week 12 and 27–24 in Week 17.
Bengals (+2) at Ravens
Granted, Cincy’s Andy Dalton has struggled with a 2–4 record, six TDs and 11 INTs against the Ravens.
Stay away from these games unless you’re a degenerate or a hometown homer who has to have action on all the action.
Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Panthers
This could become a “Lock of the Week” if Cam Newton can’t play for the Cats.
Texans (-3) vs. Redskins
Poor RG3. His Texas homecoming could end in a head-on collision with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney.
Rams (-4) vs. Vikings
Expect both teams to run as much as possible to avoid their respective liabilities at QB.
Patriots (-4.5) at Dolphins
If only Rob Gronkowski were full-strength for fist-pumping on South Beach.
Steelers (-6.5) vs. Browns
This feels like a lock, but the mighty Steel Curtain is more like a flimsy shower curtain these days.
Bears (-7) vs. Bills
A team that plays in Toronto sometimes visits a team coached by a two-time CFL Grey Cup champ.
Monday Night Moolah
Monday night time is the right time to double up the weekend’s winnings or bounce back from the weekend’s losses.
Lions (-5.5) vs. Giants
Which No. 1 overall pick QB can throw the most INTs on national TV? Nice try, Matthew. But it’s Eli.
Chargers (+3) at Cardinals (-3)
The Bolts will bring electricity to the Monday Night Football double-header nightcap.
The NFL is back, as the 2014 regular season kicks off Thursday night when Seattle opens defense of its Super Bowl crown at home against Green Bay. With the journey to Super Bowl XLIX set to begin, Athlon’s editors have made their predictions for how the upcoming season and postseason will play out.
The Seahawks are trying to do something that hasn’t been done in more than 10 years — win back-to-back Super Bowls — and as a whole, Athlon’s NFL’s pundits don’t seem to like their chances. Only two of the five editors polled even picked Seattle to make it back to the Super Bowl and even those two don't have them pullong off the rare repeat. On the other hand, three editors not only like Denver's odds of getting back to the Super Bowl, they also have the Broncos finishing the deal this time.
In addition to the predicted standings for every conference, Athlon’s editors also make their Wild Card (WC) picks as well as the respective conference championship game (CG) matchups and their best guess as to which teams will face off in Glendale, Arizona, on Feb. 1 with the Lombardi Trophy on the line.
Super Bowl XLIX
They say that hope springs eternal, but that’s really meant for baseball. In football, hope is false, more often than not. Parity in the NFL has made every team enter every season feeling like a contender, when the truth is that couldn’t be further from the truth.
So more than a few fan bases are in for a big fall – either immediately with a slow start, or slowly with a disappointing finish. There are only a few “power” teams left in the NFL. All the rest could go either way depending on a few factors. Sometimes it’s easier to see the truth from outside the fan base. So for those of you caught up in hope that your mediocre team is truly a contender, here’s a little reality check:
Here are five teams you think will be good, but they almost certainly won’t:
1. Carolina Panthers (12-4)
They had a brilliant, coming out party in 2013 and it looked like they had arrived, finally, as an NFC power and Cam Newton had taken a step toward being an elite quarterback. But now Newton is playing with a cracked rib and behind a shaky offensive line. And remember, they got rid of Steve Smith and pretty much all their wide receivers during the offseason.
Yes, their defense is terrific. They led the NFL with 60 sacks last season. And you can win a lot of games with a pass rush like that. But you can’t be a double-digit win team without scoring points. Also, defensive end Greg Hardy is staring at a suspension at some point, possibly as long as six games.
If he gets suspended for that long, and Newton’s injury lingers it could be a really long season. Even if everything works out, the Panthers could be in for a fall back to mediocrity, at least.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
Everyone knew Andy Reid would turn around the Chiefs, but did anyone see 11 wins in his first season? Probably not, because it was unrealistic – as improbable, really as their 9-0 start. It’s also impossible, by the way, to ignore that their 9-0 start became a 2-5 finish, which may have been too big of a correction, but is still a sign of things to come.
This year they’re facing a brutal schedule and Reid will have to continue to make magic with quarterback Alex Smith and a surprisingly powerful running game behind an offensive line that lost three starters to free agency. That’s not usually a recipe for success. Also keep in mind that as the Chiefs swooned late, so did their pass rush which was as responsible as anything for their 9-0 start.
In a tough division where a lot of points are scored, it’s hard to imagine Reid can keep up with the roster he has – just like it was tough to imagine they could sustain it when they were undefeated in Week 10 last year.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
Back to back .500 seasons show they’re deep in mediocrity, but they always feel they have a chance because of the presence of Ben Roethlisberger. And maybe that’s true. But what else do the Steelers have? And shouldn’t everyone be at least a little alarmed by how awful the offense looked this summer?
The hope for more seems to hinge around the running back duo of Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount, assuming they don’t end up serving twin suspensions for their arrest on marijuana charges in August. It won’t help ease the burden that the loss of Jerricho Cotchery has thinned the wide receiver corps.
Unfortunately they’re going to need to score points just to get back to .500 again, because that defense, being rebuilt around youth, took a big step back last year and may be poised to step back again.
4. Chicago Bears (8-8)
Doesn’t it seem like every year the Bears are on the verge of contention and Jay Cutler is on the verge of being an elite quarterback? Yet the Bears haven’t been in the playoffs since 2010 and they’ve actually made it just once in the last seven seasons. So why all the optimism this year?
Jay Cutler is what he is, which is an erratic quarterback capable of elite play followed by mindless mistakes. Yes, they scored a lot of points last year (and Cutler was rewarded with a seven-year, $126 million extension). And they should again with the receiving duo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey.
But a bad defense last year is now without Julius Peppers and Henry Melton along their defensive line. They brought in Jared Allen to help replace them, though he doesn’t exactly bring young legs. Their secondary isn’t getting any younger either. Yes, if the defense is better and the offense is just as good, this finally could be the year the Bears return to prominence.
But when is the last time everything worked out that well in Chicago? And haven’t we heard all this before?
5. Atlanta Falcons (4-12)
Arguably the biggest disappointment of 2013 was the fall of the Falcons from the best team in the NFC to the worst – a stunning fall for a team that was loaded with weapons (at least on the offensive side of the ball). Now, in 2014, everyone seems to assume that last year’s collapse was an anomaly, that the Falcons are poised to bounce back big.
Granted the return to health of Julio Jones could be big, but take a look at the lines along both sides of the ball. They’re trying to patch things together and hoping it will work, but it doesn’t appear as if they’ll be able to generate a pass rush or stop one. That’s a problem because that’s where games are won and lost.
Maybe they’ll be able to score some points – though it’s important to factor in the retirement (for real this time) of tight end Tony Gonzalez. Yet with a questionable defense – that may be switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 – it’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to score enough to vault them back into contention in the NFC. Mediocrity may be their ceiling, and that would be a disappointment again.
—By Ralph Vacchiano
It wasn’t just a bad day at the office. For the Broncos, Super Bowl XLVIII was a painful reality check, one that convinced them that all the offense in the world doesn’t necessarily translate to being the best team on the planet. Seattle was better that day, and San Francisco, the other big bully from the NFC, probably would have been, too. So, general manager John Elway and his lieutenants spent the offseason overhauling their defense, signing three big-ticket free agents — Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward and future Hall of Famer DeMarcus Ware — before using their No. 1 draft pick on Ohio State cornerback Bradley Roby.
For all the changes the Broncos have made, their bottom line remains the same: Vince Lombardi Trophy or bust. There may be a tomorrow with Peyton Manning under center; even if the Broncos win Super Bowl XLIX, Manning could return for an encore season. But Elway, who knows a little about playing quarterback on the back side of 30, isn’t counting on it. He wants to win, and right now.
It’s official. Manning called the right career audible when he decided to join the Broncos after being jettisoned by the Colts. Two years after sitting out the entire 2011 season, Manning threw a record 55 touchdown passes and won his fifth MVP award as the Broncos became the first-ever NFL team to eclipse the 600-point mark.
Manning will have several new weapons this year, including Montee Ball, who’ll replace Knowshon Moreno as the starting tailback, and wideouts Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer. Moreno had more than his share of moments in a Denver uniform, including a 224-yard game vs. the Patriots, but Ball gives them a more durable back and a better bet to score near the goal line, where the short field can create issues in the passing game. Not that Ball is only a threat between the tackles. He’s flying under the radar after being a backup as a rookie, but he has big-play potential that could land him in multiple Pro Bowls. Ball underwent an emergency appendectomy in early August, but was back at practice two weeks later and is expected to be ready for Week 1.
Sanders, a free-agent signee from Pittsburgh, replaces Eric Decker, who signed with the Jets. The big news in the passing game, though, came on Day 2 of the draft, when the Broncos traded up in the second round to grab Latimer. With Sanders already on board with emerging superstar Demaryius Thomas, the addition of Latimer sends a clear message that Wes Welker’s days in Denver are numbered. Welker was his usual productive self in 2013, but concussions are becoming more of an issue, such as the one he sustained in the third preseason game. At this point, Welker is probably too high a risk to be counted on week in and week out.
With or without Welker, the Broncos possess a devastating crew of receivers who can move the chains and stretch the field. The rest of the crew includes tight end Julius Thomas, a college basketball player who has become arguably Elway’s best-ever draft pick.
Almost lost in the shuffle of the Broncos’ season: They did it with left tackle Ryan Clady sidelined for most of the year. Clady’s return this season has created a domino effect on the offensive line. Chris Clark, who replaced Clady, will move to right tackle, while incumbent Orlando Franklin will move to left guard in place of Zane Beadles, who left via free agency. Franklin isn’t happy about the move, what with tackles much more appreciated on payday than guards, but it makes all the sense in the world. Clark is the better pass-blocker, and Franklin’s forte is run-blocking — all the more reason to project big numbers for Ball in his second season.
The Broncos hoped to energize their pass rush, but they were shocked to find Ware available. With Ware on the edge, the Broncos may be able to match the kind of pressure the Seahawks and 49ers put on opposing quarterbacks. Ware had 19.5 sacks as recently as 2011, and at 32, he seemingly has a lot left in his tank.
But Ware’s production figures to be linked to the other main pass-rusher, Von Miller. Three years into his career, Miller already is at the crossroads. Will he return to being one of the most feared pass-rushers in the league, or will injuries and off-field issues overshadow his enormous talents? One more drug-related issue, and Miller will be suspended long-term. Not only that, but he’ll also be trying to bounce back from a knee reconstruction. So, in the end, the Broncos won’t know how formidable their pass rush will be until they see how healthy Miller is. Ware and a healthy Miller coming off the corner would be a devastating tandem.
Linebackers Wesley Woodyard and Shaun Phillips departed via free agency, but Denver was in good shape with Danny Trevathan, the team’s leading tackler last season, ready to take over. That was until Trevathan fractured his knee during training camp, sidelining him until the middle of October, at minimum. Nate Irving is expected to start in the middle with Brandon Marshall (not the former Bronco wide receiver who's now in Chicago) and fifth-round pick Lamin Barrow among the candidates to fill in for Trevathan.
The defensive line has some depth issues, what with 2012 second-rounder Derek Wolfe experiencing career-threatening health issues last season, but tackles Terrance Knighton and Sylvester Williams, last year’s first-rounder, could be a terrific tandem in the middle. Williams started slowly, but after an offseason in the weight room, he could take a giant career leap.
The Broncos had hoped to re-sign cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but when he asked for serious money, they shifted gears and came away from free agency with Talib. The Broncos were also looking for a physical presence at safety and they got it with Ward, a Pro Bowler with the Browns in 2013. With Talib pounding on receivers in bump coverage, and with Ward providing a linebacker-like presence in the middle of the field, the Broncos figure to be much more physical than they were last season.
With Trindon Holliday gone via free agency, the coaches will use training camp to figure out how to divvy up the kickoff and punt return duties. Veteran Andre Caldwell figures to return kickoffs, and Sanders, Welker and Roby will get a look as punt returners, though Welker’s concussion issues make him a long shot.
The kicking game is in great shape with Matt Prater and Britton Colquitt. Altitude or no altitude, Prater is as good as they come, having made 14-of-15 attempts from 40 yards and beyond last season, including 6-of-7 from 50-plus. Translation: All Manning has to do is rack up two or three first downs on a typical drive and the Broncos are all but a lock to score. Colquitt? His steady production usually tilts the field-position battle the Broncos’ way. Not that he’s as busy as he once was: Colquitt punted 65 times in 2013 compared to 101 in 2011, the year before Manning’s arrival.
Prater will have to sit out the first four games of the season for a violation of the NFL’s substance abuse program. Rookie Mitch Ewald was in training camp, but the Broncos also traded a conditional seventh-round draft choice next year to the Giants for fellow rookie Brandon McManus. The waiver wire is another option if the team decides to sign a veteran kicker to fill in during Prater's absence.
The Broncos are in a unique position among NFL teams. They aren’t trying to keep pace with the rest of the league. As long as Manning is under center, their competition will come from only a handful of teams, most notably the Seahawks, 49ers and Patriots. While Denver’s offense is in a class by itself, the Broncos haven’t been as physical as the elite teams in the NFC. They could be this season, but, in the end, they’re relying on Miller to regain his status as one of the league’s best players. If he does, they could be throwing a parade in downtown Denver. If not, they may still have enough to get back to the Super Bowl. The question remains: Can they win it?
PREDICTION: 1st in AFC West
Richard Sherman will tell you that he’s the best cornerback in the NFL, and he has a new four-year $57 million contract to confirm it. Earl Thomas, with his four-year, $40 million extension, acknowledges he has no apparent equal at safety. Russell Wilson says he wants to be the league’s greatest quarterback of all time. With all of this confidence bubbling over, it’s hard to deny the Seahawks anything these days.
Collectively, these guys are coming off one of the most dominant seasons in recent times — including a 35-point Super Bowl victory over Denver after losing three games by a combined 15 points — thinking they can do this all again.
Just eight of 47 previous teams have repeated as Super Bowl champions, none during the past decade — all unable to cope with winner’s complacency, personnel changes or major injuries. Yet Seattle, after boasting the second-youngest Super Bowl roster (26.4 years), building a star-studded defense (led by its secondary) and retaining all of its major contributors (six Pro Bowl players), has no shortage of swagger when addressing this challenge.
“One of the things that happens every so often is teams have a big fallout after they win the Super Bowl,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll says. “We’re not in that situation.”
Any major adjustments for this team will come on offense, where the Seahawks must replace two starting linemen and their leading receiver. This doesn’t raise any red flags for a couple of reasons: 1) These positions regularly have been in a state of flux, and 2) Wilson.
Returning for his third season, Wilson has defied every obstacle presented to him at quarterback: Too short, sophomore slump, too young to win a Super Bowl. He makes everyone around him better with his decision-making, elusiveness and deceptively strong arm while running the Seahawks’ zone-read offense in a masterful manner. He’s a proven winner, capturing 28 of 37 games as the starter, including four of five in the postseason.
With 52 TD passes in his brief career, Wilson has done this without a marquee receiver at his disposal. He may finally have one, provided Percy Harvin can stay healthy after sitting out most of his first season in Seattle with a hip injury. Limited to three games, two in the playoffs, Harvin offered a glimpse of what he could do in the Super Bowl with an 87-yard kickoff return for a score and 30-yard run. He brings a huge boost of speed to the offense. Harvin will share receiving duties with the highly efficient Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, plus top draft pick Paul Richardson, who possesses Harvin-like speed.
Marshawn Lynch has been a rushing fiend for three consecutive seasons, piling up more than 4,500 rushing yards and 39 total touchdowns in that time, postseason included. But there is good reason to be wary of him now. The hard-nosed runner affectionately known as Beast Mode has more than 1,800 career carries under his belt, leaving him susceptible to sudden performance falloff that comes with being an overused NFL running back. Seattle will ride Lynch as long as it can, likely spelling him more and more with Robert Turbin.
Considerable patchwork needs to be done on the line, which is anchored by two-time Pro Bowl center Max Unger and one-time Pro Bowl left tackle Russell Okung, both mobile players who open a lot of holes. Vacancies must be filled at left guard and right tackle, where part-time starters James Carpenter and second-round pick Justin Britt are the leading candidates. Carpenter, a former No. 1 pick, hasn’t been the dominant player envisioned by the Seahawks because he can’t stay healthy and lacks speed. Draftee Garrett Scott might be an option for each opening with his size and athleticism. Oddly enough, left guard has resembled an open tryout every year.
No position area across the NFL is as star-studded as the Seahawks’ sensational secondary, nicknamed “The Legion of Boom.” Safety Kam Chancellor, Thomas and Sherman each enjoyed Pro Bowl seasons and huge postseason moments, and there’s no reason to expect anything less in 2014. Byron Maxwell proved to be an able cover corner and became the fourth wheel for this group after original “Boom” member Brandon Browner was suspended for drug-related offenses. Browner signed with New England in the offseason.
The Seattle linebacking corps, more functional than flashy, returns intact with Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright as starters. Irvin, a converted defensive end, is a superb pass-rusher, while Wagner and Wright are solid against the run. The secondary allows them to take chances. An added bonus is having Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith back them up.
Unfortunately, the Seahawks were forced to sacrifice a chunk of their defensive depth, particularly across the front wall, in order to pay for the headliners. Aging starters Red Bryant and Chris Clemons and reserve Clinton McDonald were deemed expendable and signed on with other teams. Seattle still puts a fierce front four on the field with rising star Michael Bennett, plus Cliff Avril, Brandon Mebane and Tony McDaniel, but it no longer has a proven second wave.
The Seahawks defense was an absolute monster in 2013, ranking No. 1 in the NFL in total defense (273.6 ypg), passing defense (172.0 ypg), points allowed (14.4 ppg), takeaways (39), interceptions (28), turnover differential (plus-20) and opposing QB passer rating (63.4). It will be hard to duplicate that dominance.
Automatic readily sums up the Seahawks’ special teams. Placekicker Steven Hauschka was rewarded with a big contract extension after he connected on 33-of-35 field goals, hitting all three of his attempts over 50 yards. Jon Ryan, a career 44.8-yard punter, downed 28 kicks inside the 20. Harvin, counting his Super Bowl score, has run six kickoffs back for touchdowns in his NFL career. Kearse will move from kickoffs to punt returns.
The Seahawks spent much of the offseason taking bows and renegotiating contracts. Unlike the year before, they didn’t engage much in the free-agent market or instigate any big trades. Once the roster churn was over, they had 10 notable contributors to the title run depart for other teams and often bigger paydays. Which raises a pertinent question: Did the franchise give up too much manpower and break up its uncanny chemistry? The answer likely is no — as long as mainstays such as Wilson, Sherman and Thomas are interspersed throughout the lineup, with a healthy Harvin complementing them. Seattle will attempt to become just the eighth different franchise (Pittsburgh has done it twice) to repeat as Super Bowl champs. Only the Patriots have won consecutive NFL titles in the new millennium. The Seahawks, with so much talent still on their side, appear fully capable of joining the elite repeat club.
PREDICTION: 1st in NFC West
Mike McCarthy not only issued the proclamation: He told everyone how they should write it, too.
“We’re going to be a better defense this year,” the Green Bay Packers coach announced after the draft in May. “You can write that in big letters.”
Well, if you insist. THE PACKERS ARE GOING TO BE A BETTER DEFENSE THIS YEAR.
This was more than just bluster by the head coach. If the Packers are going to return to the Super Bowl after winning three straight division titles — but managing just one playoff victory — in the three years since they won Super Bowl XLV, McCarthy knows it’s imperative that their defense, which ranked tied for 24th in scoring (26.8 ppg) and 25th in yards allowed (372.3 ypg), must improve. While he kept veteran coordinator Dom Capers, McCarthy has been more involved in the defense, scaling back the playbook, trying to use more personnel groupings but fewer schemes.
To improve the personnel, GM Ted Thompson signed veteran defensive end Julius Peppers. Released by Chicago in a cost-cutting move, the 34-year-old Peppers will play a hybrid end/outside linebacker position. The club also re-signed three key defensive free agents (No. 1 cornerback Sam Shields, pass-rusher Mike Neal and nose tackle B.J. Raji) and picked four defensive players in the draft, led by first-round pick Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, a safety from Alabama, at No. 21.
Whether the changes in approach and personnel allow McCarthy to deliver on his promise could very well decide the Packers’ 2014 fate.
It’s hard to imagine the Packers, who’ve done so much right in building a perennial contender, bungling a position worse than they did the backup quarterback spot last year. And wouldn’t you know it, for the first time in two decades, they lost their starting quarterback for an extended period of time when Aaron Rodgers suffered a fractured left collarbone. The team wound up starting four quarterbacks, and only the re-signing of Matt Flynn, Rodgers’ backup from 2008-11, saved the season. Rodgers’ history of durability — he’d missed only one start due to injury before last season — should mean a return to form as one of the league’s top quarterbacks, and with Flynn and Scott Tolzien in the fold from Day 1 of the offseason program, the Packers should be better prepared if disaster strikes again.
If Rodgers does stay healthy, the offense could reach unprecedented heights because the Packers finally have a potent run game to pair with their aerial attack, thanks to running back Eddie Lacy, who ran for 1,178 yards. Because Lacy suffered a concussion one carry into a Week 2 game vs. Washington and missed the following week, and Rodgers broke his collarbone on the opening series against Chicago on Nov. 4, the pair played only six full regular-season games together. If both stay healthy, defenses won’t be able to play constant two-shell coverages to prevent Rodgers’ big-play passes as they did in 2012, and they won’t be able to load the box with eight or nine defenders as they did last year against Lacy when Rodgers was out. If Lacy does get nicked, the Packers have depth. They re-signed James Starks and get DuJuan Harris back from injury. Johnathan Franklin, last year's fourth-round pick was released in June when it was determined the neck injury he suffered in 2013 would prevent from continuing his football careeer.
Two years ago, the Packers were so deep at receiver that the franchise’s all-time leader in catches and receiving yards, an aging Donald Driver, was relegated to sixth on the depth chart. Now, it’s Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and some youngsters. Nelson is coming off career highs in receptions (85) and yards (1,314), while Cobb missed 10 games with a leg injury. Nelson signed a four-year, $39 million contract extension in July and Cobb has said he's ready to prove he's worthy of his own lucrative deal. After them, it’s third-year man Jarrett Boykin, who stepped up with Cobb out (49 catches, 681 yards), as the No. 3, then a mix of unproven returnees and draft picks, led by second-rounder Davante Adams.
Jermichael Finley’s career-threatening neck injury and spinal fusion surgery put his future in doubt and left the Packers vulnerable at tight end. While Andrew Quarless, who took over after Finley’s injury, was re-signed, McCarthy’s offense is optimized when it has a big, athletic pass-catching tight end. If the Packers don’t have Finley, McCarthy will have to get creative.
For the fourth time in four years, the Packers will have a different opening-day starter at center. Rookie Corey Linsley appears to be the guy, largely due to a knee fracture suffered by JC Tretter in the third preseason game. Tretter is expected to miss several weeks. Linsley will be sandwiched by proven veteran guards Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang. McCarthy has always stressed the importance of the center position in adjustments at the line of scrimmage, so there could be some growing pains or the coaching staff may have to shuffle positions. Second-year left tackle David Bakhtiari figures to only get better, while Bryan Bulaga moves back to right tackle after finishing each of the past two seasons on injured reserve. Besides Tretter's injury, the line must also function with out key reserve Don Barclay, who tore his ACL early in training camp.
The team has selected five defensive linemen in the past three drafts. After a ho-hum rookie year, 2013 first-round pick Datone Jones must make a big jump in Year 2, as Mike Daniels (a line-leading 6.5 sacks) did last season. B.J. Raji was brought back on a one-year, $4 million prove-it deal and slated to start at nose tackle, but he is likely out for the season after tearing his biceps in the third preseason game.
Star outside linebacker Clay Matthews broke his right thumb twice and had two surgeries to correct it — the second being more invasive. The Packers’ defense simply isn’t the same without Matthews. If healthy, he and Peppers might have a field day. Inside, steady A.J. Hawk remains the unit’s leader after showing a much-needed spike in big plays (five sacks, one interception, one forced fumble) last season.
The addition of Clinton-Dix should not only solidify a position where departed M.D. Jennings started 17 games, but he should also help Morgan Burnett, whose first season after signing a four-year, $24.75 million extension was a disappointment. Clinton-Dix figures to be the center fielder more often than Burnett. At cornerback, re-signing Shields (four years, $39 million) was offseason priority No. 1. Tramon Williams’ second-half renaissance last year re-solidified the position.
Veteran kicker Mason Crosby followed his worst NFL season with his best, making 33-of-37 field-goal attempts (89.2 percent), while Tim Masthay has become one of the league’s top cold-weather punters. The return game remains up in the air, though Micah Hyde was a godsend after return specialist Jeremy Ross was prematurely cut.
The Pack won’t be a chic Super Bowl pick, and that’s how Rodgers likes it. “They’re going to be talking about Seattle and Denver and New England and some of these teams that rebuild and reload,” Rodgers says. “We kind of like it when we’re a little bit of an afterthought. That makes us dangerous.” Look for the Packers to win their fourth straight North crown, and if they can lick their annual injury epidemic, they’ll be in the title conversation.
PREDICTION: 1st in NFC North
While the Patriots were among the NFL’s elite in 2013 with a 12–4 record and No. 2 seed in the AFC, they were clearly a notch below the Seahawks, Broncos and 49ers. Have they done enough in the offseason to get back into the Super Bowl title discussion that they were clearly in the middle of from 2010-12?
Adding Darrelle Revis after Aqib Talib departed qualifies as an upgrade at the all-important cornerback position. The other major “additions” are really just Pro Bowl-quality players getting healthy. The Pats did not have Jerod Mayo, Vince Wilfork or Rob Gronkowski for their playoff run. Should all three be 100 percent, and if Tom Brady continues to win his battle with Father Time (he will be 37 on opening day), the Super Bowl will once again be a realistic goal.
The Patriots have plenty of certainties on offense — Brady at quarterback, five starters returning on the offensive line, Julian Edelman heading the wide receiver corps — but there is one rather large unknown: the health of Gronkowski. The tight end tore his ACL against Cleveland in Week 14 and underwent surgery on Jan. 9. Gronkowski could be active by the time the Patriots open the season at Miami, but given the $53 million investment the team made in the former second-round pick, look for him and the team to be extra cautious. After playing in every game his first two years, Gronkowski has played in just 18 due to wrist, back and knee issues since signing his big deal in 2012. When he plays, the Patriots’ offense thrives, with No. 87 racking up 42 TDs in 50 regular-season games. When he is out, Brady loses a major weapon. New England added Tampa Bay tight end Tim Wright on Aug. 26 in a trade that sent long-time starting left guard and six-time Pro Bowler Logan Mankins to the Buccaneers. The Patriots also received the Bucs' fourth-round pick next year for Mankins, who was New England's first-round choice back in 2005.
Not that Brady isn’t used to making do with what’s available. Gronkowski, pass-catching running back Shane Vereen and wide receiver Danny Amendola all missed chunks of time due to injury last season. Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez also departed in the offseason (for very different reasons). So how did the Pats do? Brady had his lowest passer rating (87.3) since 2003 and fewest touchdowns (25) since 2006. However, the Pats still managed to finish third in the NFL in scoring at 27.8 points per game.
The Patriots enjoyed unexpected production out of LeGarrette Blount, who led the team in rushing nine times, including an electrifying 166-yard, four-touchdown effort in a playoff win over the Colts. Blount signed with Pittsburgh in the offseason, leaving the Pats with familiar faces Steven Ridley and Vereen as the main running backs. Ridley’s fumble troubles sent him to the sidelines for portions of last season, but many believe he is the most talented back on the roster and should be able to ring up over 1,000 yards like he did in 2012. Vereen racked up 54 catches (including postseason) despite missing eight games with a broken wrist.
Is Brady losing a step? Perhaps, but he has proven time and again that he can produce when given suitable weapons at the skill positions. If his prime targets remain healthy in 2014, don’t be surprised if he is in the discussion for a third MVP trophy.
The biggest storyline in the offseason was the acquisition of Revis days after Talib signed with Denver. Talib was a critical piece of the Patriots’ defense for one-and-a-half seasons, but it can be argued that the Pats upgraded at the position with Revis. Despite still recovering from a torn ACL early in 2013, Revis started all 16 games with the Bucs and reached his fifth Pro Bowl. Revis, only 29, is one of the best corners in the game and should give coach Bill Belichick the same options Talib did in terms of taking away an opponent’s top receiver.
The Patriots also signed Seahawks cornerback Brandon Browner, who will miss the first four games due to a drug suspension. Browner is a physical corner who will be a candidate to start opposite Revis or even possibly slide over to play some safety. The added depth will only help a back line that ranked ninth in opposing QB rating in 2013.
The front seven will welcome back two cornerstones in Mayo (linebacker) and Wilfork (defensive tackle). Mayo missed the final 12 games (including playoffs) with a torn pectoral muscle, while Wilfork missed the final 14 after tearing his Achilles. Both should be 100 percent, though at age 32, there is concern whether Wilfork will be able to regain the form that earned him Pro Bowl invites from 2009-12. The Pats spent their first-round draft pick on interior lineman Dominique Easley, who missed most of his final year at Florida with a torn ACL.
Up front, the Patriots traded for former Packer Jerel Worthy during training camp. Green Bay's second-round pick in 2012, the hope is that Worthy can serve as a third rusher to spell Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich.
Two second-year players will be taking on critical roles on the Patriots defense. Jamie Collins could potentially be a three-down linebacker after coming on strong toward the end of his rookie season. Collins was brought along slowly last year, but his athleticism really showed in the playoff win over the Colts when he had six tackles, a sack and an interception. Collins, Mayo and Dont’a Hightower will form a top-flight linebacking corps.
At strong safety, Duron Harmon is slated to replace Steve Gregory. Harmon backed up Gregory in 2013 and saw starter’s minutes during a three-game stretch in which there was no noticeable drop-off. With Devin McCourty at the other safety and Revis and Alfonzo Dennard or Browner at the corners, Harmon’s contributions could mean the difference between an elite secondary and an above-average secondary.
Stephen Gostkowski connected on a career-best 93 percent of his field goals in 2013 and led the league with 38 successful attempts. He is 19-of-21 in playoff games. Second-year punter Ryan Allen had a nondescript rookie season (16th in net punting, 10th in balls inside the 20). Edelman is the NFL’s active leader in yards per punt return (12.3) and has averaged over 10 yards per return in all five seasons in the league. Josh Boyce is the leading candidate to return kickoffs.
Have the Patriots improved enough to pass the Broncos and represent the AFC in the Super Bowl? With the return of Mayo and Wilfork, plus the additions of Revis and Browner, the defense looks much improved. As far as the offense goes, Gronkowski’s health will be a big factor, as well as Ridley’s ability to hold on to the ball. The Patriots will not be as explosive as they were in the Randy Moss/Welker days, but with Brady at the helm, you can count on a top-10 offense. With Brady signed through 2017, the expectation is that the Brady/Belichick era has four years remaining. Pressure is mounting to win that fourth Super Bowl trophy and first since 2004. The regular-season success of the past decade has been remarkable, but disappointing finishes in the playoffs have taken some shine off this run.
PREDICTION: 1st in AFC East
How much heartbreak can a team take and keep pushing for the Super Bowl? The 49ers are about to find out. The 49ers’ Super Bowl hopes died last season with a crushing 23–17 loss in the NFC Championship Game to the Seattle Seahawks. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s first-down pass from the Seahawks’ 18 to Michael Crabtree was tipped by cornerback Richard Sherman in the end zone and intercepted by Malcolm Smith with under a minute left. Two years ago the 49ers suffered a 34–31 Super Bowl loss to Baltimore as their final drive ended with three straight Kaepernick incomplete passes from the Ravens’ 5-yard line. Three years ago the 49ers reached the NFC title game in coach Jim Harbaugh’s rookie season but lost 20–17 in overtime to the New York Giants.
“It’s like Sisyphus, all the way to the top and then the season ends and the boulder rolls all the way back to the bottom,” Harbaugh said in March. “Then we’re pushing again. We’re going to start pushing that rock, that boulder, see if we can get it to the very top.”
After their painful loss to Seattle, the 49ers had an offseason filled with front-office controversy and troubling off-the-field incidents. There were reports of a feud between Harbaugh and general manager Trent Baalke and questions about Harbaugh’s future with the team. Time could be running out for Harbaugh to lead the 49ers to the top of the NFL’s mountain.
After ranking 30th in passing last season at a dismal 186.2 yards per game, the 49ers appear ready to climb at least into the middle of the pack and have a more balanced overall offense. They re-signed wide receiver Anquan Boldin, who led the team with 85 catches for 1,179 yards and seven touchdowns in his first season as a 49er, and traded for Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson, who had three straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons from 2010-12. What’s more, the 49ers should have a healthy Crabtree — Kaepernick’s favorite receiver — from the outset. Last year, Crabtree missed the first 11 games with a torn Achilles tendon. In Boldin, Crabtree, Johnson and explosive tight end Vernon Davis, Kaepernick has four quality targets. Wideout Brandon Lloyd, a free-agent pickup, would make five, if he earns a job. All the 49ers are lacking is an experienced speed receiver to stretch the field.
In his first full season as a starter last year, Kaepernick averaged only 199.8 yards passing per game with 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Kaepernick has one of the NFL’s best fastballs, but he needs to improve his accuracy and his ability to read defenses in order to become an elite quarterback. He is already one of the NFL’s most dangerous running quarterbacks. Although offensive coordinator Greg Roman cut back on the number of read-option plays, Kaepernick still rushed for 524 yards in the regular-season and 243 more in the playoffs.
Frank Gore rushed for over 1,000 yards last season for the third straight year and seventh time in his career, but he averaged a career-low 4.1 yards per carry. Gore keeps himself in remarkable shape, and his passion for the game hasn’t waned. But he turned 31 in May, and the 49ers will likely reduce his load by giving more carries to rookie Carlos Hyde and and possibly Marcus Lattimore, who spent his rookie season recovering from a knee injury. Kendall Hunter was part of the equation until he tore his ACL during training camp.
Gore will run behind one of the NFL’s top offensive lines that returns four starters — tackles Joe Staley and Anthony Davis and guards Mike Iupati and Alex Boone. Center Daniel Kilgore is expected to replace Jonathan Goodwin.
The 49ers still boast one of the NFL’s most dominant defenses, featuring stars such as Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis and lineman Justin Smith, but a few cracks have appeared in what once was an all but impenetrable defensive wall.
One year after losing free safety Dashon Goldson as a free agent, the 49ers parted ways with three more defensive backs who started during their 2012 Super Bowl season. Strong safety Donte Whitner signed with Cleveland; cornerback Tarell Brown signed with the Raiders; and cornerback Carlos Rogers was cut to clear salary cap room and joined Brown in Oakland.
The 49ers signed ex-Colts strong safety Antoine Bethea as a free agent to replace Whitner. Bethea and free safety Eric Reid, coming off a Pro Bowl rookie season, should form a solid tandem. Tramaine Brock, who impressed while starting seven games for an injured Brown last season, is slated to open this season as a starter. But the 49ers have no proven candidates to start opposite Brock or at nickel cornerback, a role that Rogers owned. Chris Culliver appears to be the leading candidate to win a starting job at corner despite missing last season with a knee injury. He also raised red flags when he was arrested after a hit-and-run incident involving a bicyclist during the offseason. Safety Jimmie Ward, the team’s top draft pick, will likely fill the nickel role, covering receivers in the slot.
Willis, Smith and outside linebacker Ahmad Brooks, coming off his first Pro Bowl season, anchor a defense that ranked fourth against the run last season. But inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman suffered a gruesome left knee injury during the NFC title game. Bowman will start the season on the PUP list, meaning he will miss at least the first six games, and it's still unclear whether he’ll return as the dominant force he’s been the past three seasons. Michael Wilhoite is expected to fill in until Bowman recovers. Outside linebacker Aldon Smith, who had a combined 33.5 sacks in 2011 and 2012, could face NFL suspension after two arrests for DUIs as well as a felony weapons charge stemming from a wild party at his home in June 2012. He was also arrested this offseason at Los Angeles International Airport when he allegedly became belligerent and told a TSA officer that he had a bomb. Last year Smith entered a facility for substance abuse and missed five games.
San Francisco also will be without the services of tackle Glenn Dorsey, who tore his biceps during training camp, for an extended period of time. Dorsey has already had surgery to repair the damage and the team is hopeful he will be able to return at some point this season. A free-agent addition prior to last season, the 49ers have been so pleased with what Dorsey has already brought that they signed him to a two-year contract extension after he suffered the biceps injury.
In placekicker Phil Dawson and punter Andy Lee, the 49ers have one of the NFL’s strongest kicking tandems. Dawson, a former Brown, had a stellar first campaign as a 49er, earning a two-year contract extension. He made 32-of-36 field goals, including a team-record 27 straight. Lee averaged 48.2 yards per punt, third best in the NFL, with a net of 41.7, which ranked fourth. Running back LaMichael James averaged 10.9 yards per punt return and 26.8 yards per kickoff return last season. The question is whether James will be on the roster when the season begins. He’s unhappy over his lack of playing time, reportedly wants to be traded and was sidelined early on in training camp by a dislocated elbow.
The 49ers still have enough talent to make another Super Bowl run, but they have plenty of reasons to be concerned. If the 49ers don’t unseat reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle in the NFC West, they’ll have to battle again for a wild card spot. Last year’s wild card run included three road games, ending with the heartbreaking loss at Seattle.
PREDICTION: 2nd in NFC West
If the Indianapolis Colts are guilty of anything the past two seasons, it’s that they’ve won too fast since being resurrected. Eleven wins in each regular season and a playoff victory over Kansas City in January erased memories of the 2–14 implosion in 2011. And so, familiar expectations from the Peyton Manning era have quickly returned — it’s Super Bowl or bust for quarterback Andrew Luck and company. The rest of the AFC South has been mired in mediocrity or worse, which leaves the Colts as the team to beat once again. But division titles aren’t enough. General manager Ryan Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano enter their third season with the understanding that nobody remembers playoff qualifiers who exit in January. It’s about getting to February.
Luck has passed for more yards in his first two seasons (8,196) than any quarterback in NFL history, thriving despite a shaky offensive line and sputtering run game. Grigson, a former O-lineman, didn’t need to be reminded that the line is still a No. 1 priority, considering that Luck has been sacked 73 times.
An obvious question is: Who will play center? Samson Satele was jettisoned with one year remaining on his contract, too expensive and underwhelming. Khaled Holmes, a fourth-round pick last year, couldn’t get on the field. Grigson insists the Colts will start with Holmes. They drafted Ohio State All-America tackle Jack Mewhort presumably to play guard. An addition that's even more important considering the season-ending quadriceps injury suffered by fellow guard and potential center candidate Donald Thomas. Mewhort and second-year right guard Hugh Thornton will both need to perform right away.
Inquiring minds wonder if this is running back Trent Richardson’s last chance to prove he was worth the 2014 first-round pick Grigson sent to Cleveland last year. The former No. 3 overall selection — after Luck and Robert Griffin III — averaged just 2.9 yards per carry and was a step slow. The Colts considered the alternatives and re-signed veteran Ahmad Bradshaw, lost after three games to a neck injury. The team was hopeful to get Vick Ballard, steady as a rookie in 2012, back after he missed last season with a knee injury, but he tore his Achilles early in training camp. It’s hard to believe Richardson will suddenly blossom, but Ballard's already out for the season and Bradshaw has had trouble staying healthy. It's possible someone else emerges, but don’t be surprised if Bradshaw gets most of the workload.
Wide receiver Reggie Wayne has been a leader, but he’s coming off knee surgery that shortened last season to seven games. At 35 and entering the final year of his contract, Wayne has to return to some semblance of his six-time Pro Bowl form. He’s looked strong in rehab. Hakeem Nicks has something to prove after the Colts took a one-year chance on the ex-Giants target. T.Y. Hilton emerged as a go-to player, but the idea is to share the wealth and not be forced to rely on an undersized speedster. Tight end Dwayne Allen is back after missing almost all of last season with a hip injury. He scraped the surface of his talent as a rookie and could have a breakout year. Third-year pro Coby Fleener is a decent tight end, not flashy but reliable.
While the Colts were ninth in points allowed at 21 per game, coordinator Greg Manusky’s unit had issues getting stops. Expect inside linebacker D’Qwell Jackson (Cleveland) and defensive end Arthur Jones (Baltimore) to shore up the 26th-ranked run defense. Jackson is a tackling machine in the mold of Colts’ top tackler Jerrell Freeman. Jones is versatile and can play anywhere on the line.
The Colts paid big bucks to bring back cornerback Vontae Davis, who excels at the press coverage this 3-4 scheme requires. While effective as a shutdown corner, he’s also been inconsistent. The Colts are paying him $39 million over four years to be one of the NFL’s best cover guys. On the other side, injury-prone Greg Toler lived up to his reputation with just seven starts. When Davis and Toler were on the field together, the 13th-ranked pass defense was effective. But depth is an issue with Josh Gordy and Darius Butler vying for playing time at nickel. They’ve made plays, but they’ve been burned, too.
Robert Mathis, at 33, is still one of the game’s elite pass-rushers. But the Colts will be without the league’s reigning sack champion (19.5) for the first four games of the season due to a league-mandated suspension. With or without Mathis, the Colts need more help rushing the quarterback. Outside linebacker Bjoern Werner, the 2013 first-round pick, got hurt early and struggled. He’ll get every opportunity to rack up sacks, considering that outside linebacker Erik Walden is more suited to stopping the run. Mindful of a lack of pass-rush depth, Grigson used a fifth-round pick on Ball State outside linebacker Jonathan Newsome, who had 16.5 sacks in 23 games for the Cardinals. At best, he’s a situational pass-rusher.
The Colts didn’t keep safety Antoine Bethea, so there’s a hole next to hard-hitting LaRon Landry. Expect Delano Howell, undrafted in 2012, to get the first crack at free safety, provided the neck injury he sustained during training camp doesn't turn out to be too serious. Howell was reliable in six games last season before injuring his foot. Special teams ace Sergio Brown might also get a look and veteran Mike Adams has been added to the mix as well.
Pagano was a defensive coordinator in Baltimore, so nothing less than marked improvement is the expectation. But if the Colts struggle again against the run and don’t have a consistent pass rush, the scheme unravels.
Kicker Adam Vinatieri and punter/kickoff specialist Pat McAfee were re-signed. While Vinatieri is 41, he was given a two-year contract after showing he still has the leg for long kicks (4-of-6 from 50-plus) and is accurate (35-of-40 overall). McAfee has a strong leg and is excellent on kickoffs and as a holder. Long-snapper Matt Overton is back after going to his first Pro Bowl.
The Colts have struggled to find successful returners — not so much on punts where Hilton has excelled, but on kickoffs. It’s been a revolving door for years. Reserve running back Daniel Herron, wide receiver Griff Whalen and undrafted rookie Loucheiz Purifoy are among the candidates to likely get the first opportunities this season, especially if the coaching staff decides to lessen Hilton's workload.
So many “ifs” suggest that the Colts aren’t quite there yet for a Super Bowl run. But don’t count them out. Despite past injuries and ineffectiveness at key spots, they’re a resilient bunch that rallies around Pagano and often overachieves. The simplified synopsis is this team will go as far as Luck can take them if he gets help. Luck pressed in the playoffs, hence his seven interceptions, but he took better care of the ball in his second season and improved his completion percentage. The run game has to be better and his pass-catchers only need to be reliable for the Colts to field one of the best offenses. That takes some of the pressure off the defense, but this team won’t get to the AFC title game or Super Bowl without stops. It can’t be a carbon copy of so many Manning teams that just tried to outscore opponents.
PREDICTION: 1st in AFC South
Expectations are high in San Diego after the Chargers rallied to return to the playoffs following a three-year absence. Fans mostly like what they see in coach Mike McCoy and GM Tom Telesco, who took over after Norv Turner and A.J. Smith were fired following the 2012 season. Of course, the road to the Super Bowl goes through division rival Denver, which beat the Chargers in the divisional round. San Diego didn’t exactly charge into the playoffs, but its four-game December winning streak was the difference as Miami and Baltimore faltered. Although McCoy made some glaring mistakes as a rookie coach, he and Telesco have changed the mindset at Chargers Park.
McCoy was right. Philip Rivers didn’t need to be fixed. Everyone else around him needed to get better. That’s why the Chargers remain Rivers’ team, whether he’s throwing to Keenan Allen or Antonio Gates or handing off to Ryan Mathews. Rivers will turn 33 in December, when he hopes to again be leading a late-season run that will get the Bolts into the postseason. After two rough seasons, the franchise quarterback adjusted to McCoy’s quicker-tempo offense and had one of the best statistical seasons of his 10-year NFL career. He completed a team-record, career-best and NFL-leading 69.5 percent of his passes for 4,478 yards and 32 touchdowns, with just 11 interceptions. Frank Reich has been promoted to offensive coordinator after Ken Whisenhunt was hired as head coach at Tennessee, and Reich is expected to continue to run the offense that has Rivers dropping back only three steps before throwing. The Chargers also sometimes run a no-huddle.
Besides Rivers’ resurgence, the most pleasant surprise for the Chargers was Allen’s emergence. The third-round draft pick didn’t even play in the season opener but was a starter by the third game. Showing a remarkable knack for getting separation from defenders, he went on to catch 71 passes for 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns. He goes into this season holding down one starting spot. The Chargers are waiting to find out if Malcom Floyd will return after he sustained a scary, season-ending neck injury in the season’s second game. Gates remains motivated, in part because some outsiders have written him off as being over the hill. He’ll be 34 by opening day, yet he’s coming off a 77-catch season that led the Bolts. The Chargers are excited about his backup, third-year pro Ladarius Green.
Mathews heads into the final year of his rookie contract. If this season is like last year, when he ran for a career-best 1,255 yards and scored six touchdowns, the Chargers will be trying to figure out a way to keep him. Mathews played in all 16 regular-season games for the first time and avoided the kind of major injuries that sidelined him in previous years. Little Danny Woodhead will once again provide a nice change of pace and he signed a two-year extension prior to the start of training camp.
The Chargers didn’t have a bruiser to replace Mathews when he went out of the playoff game at Denver, so they signed free agent Donald Brown, who was Indianapolis’ first-round draft pick in 2009, and used their sixth-round draft pick on Arizona State’s Marion Grice.
The offensive line isn’t nearly the mystery it was last offseason. Coach Joe D’Alessandris has his players ready to move around if needed. King Dunlap has settled in at left tackle, and the unit is anchored by center Nick Hardwick, who’s entering his 11th season. D.J. Fluker settled in at right tackle during his rookie season, though he also made three starts at left tackle.
Only three NFL teams had pass defenses more porous than San Diego’s, which is why Telesco used his first two draft picks and three of the first four on defensive players. First-round pick Jason Verrett is expected to start at cornerback opposite Shareece Wright. Second-round pick, outside linebacker Jerry Attaochu, and fourth-round pick, nose tackle Ryan Carrethers, will at the very least be in the rotation if they don’t earn a starting job.
The focus is on competing with Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Denver won two of the three games between the teams last year, including in the divisional round of the playoffs.
If anything, the Chargers will have fresh legs in the secondary. Verrett is only 5'10" but is tough and confident, and cornerback Steve Williams, a fifth-round pick in 2013, is ready to go after missing last year with a training camp injury. San Diego also signed Pro Bowl cornerback Brandon Flowers after he was released by Kansas City in June as a salary cap casualty.
The Chargers certainly have the makings of a tough defense. One of their first offseason moves was to re-sign one of their own, inside linebacker Donald Butler, before he could hit the free-agent market. Butler is a thumper who helps set the tone and wanted to stay in San Diego rather than try to collect a big paycheck elsewhere. Butler plays next to Manti Te’o, who will be looking to build on a solid rookie season. There were times early last season when Te’o always seemed to be a step behind, but he came on late and was sixth on the team in tackles. He’s still waiting to make a big signature play, be it an interception, sack or fumble recovery.
The Chargers will find out if outside linebacker Dwight Freeney has anything left. He returns for the final year of a two-year contract after missing most of 2013 with a quadriceps injury. The Chargers are looking to Freeney to help tutor Attaochu, a rookie linebacker who is expected to add speed on the edge of San Diego’s 3-4 defense. Attaochu set Georgia Tech’s career sacks record with 31.5. San Diego’s defense came on late in the year, coinciding with the return of outside linebackers Jarret Johnson and Melvin Ingram from injuries.
Carrethers could be the nose tackle the Chargers have been looking for since Jamal Williams left after the 2009 season. Carrethers was San Diego’s fifth-round pick, cited by Telesco for his “uncommon production” in 2013 at Arkansas State, when he had 93 tackles, including eight for a loss.
The Chargers remain in good hands with kicker Nick Novak, punter Mike Scifres and long-snapper Mike Windt. Novak set a team record with a 91.9 percent conversion rate, 34-of-37. He was 11-of-11 from beyond 40 yards. Scifres had the highest percentage in the NFL of punts inside the 20, 53.6 (30-of-56). Seventh-round draft pick Tevin Reese wasn’t part of Baylor’s return game, but he’ll be given the chance with the Chargers.
The Chargers certainly are capable of returning to the playoffs, but they’re going to have their hands full. With a killer schedule, they don’t have room for the kind of mystifying losses they had last year. The Chargers did win at Kansas City and Denver, both in the season’s second half. Yet they needed about four miracles down the stretch, not to mention having to go overtime at home to beat the Chiefs’ backups in the season finale in order to make the playoffs. The Chargers spent most of December scoreboard-watching because of a midseason slump. They can’t push their luck like that this year, or they’ll be staying home in January.
PREDICTION: 2nd in AFC West
The Cardinals’ goal this year is simple but also extraordinary: Become the first team in NFL history to turn the Super Bowl into a home game. Super Bowl XLIX will be played Feb. 1 in University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, and the Cardinals believe they’ve put together a team that can topple the pecking order in the NFC.
That’s a tough task given that they’re in the same division as the two best teams in the conference, Seattle and San Francisco. But there’s no question that Arizona is trending in the right direction under second-year coach Bruce Arians and general manager Steve Keim.
Keim has proven to be an astute judge of talent both in the draft and free agency, and Arians, who likes to think of himself as the “cool uncle,” has the players’ trust and respect.
It was the Cardinals’ bad luck last season to finish 10–6 and not make the playoffs while Green Bay finished 8–7–1 and hosted a playoff game. Maybe the football gods owe Arizona one this season. Like, say, a home game in February.
It all begins, or ends, with quarterback Carson Palmer. There are times when Palmer looks like he’s color-blind — he threw 22 interceptions in 2013 — but he’s tough, and he throws a great deep ball, a prerequisite in Arians’ offense. It’s too late for Palmer, 34, to again be an elite quarterback in the league, but he can be effective. The key is to avoid too many games like he had against Seattle last year, when he completed just 13-of-25 passes and was intercepted four times. The Cardinals accept that Palmer is going to have an off Sunday or two — he has so much confidence in his arm that he sometimes forces throws, leading to picks. But as long as the good outweighs the bad, the team can live with the inconsistency.
Palmer should have a cleaner pocket from which to operate — he was sacked 41 times last season — because the Cardinals have dramatically upgraded their offensive line, particularly on the left side. Left tackle has been a problem spot for years, but the Cardinals signed free agent Jared Veldheer to a five-year deal after the Raiders inexplicably didn’t franchise tag the 27-year-old. Jonathan Cooper, the team’s top pick last year and the seventh overall selection, will be plugged into the left guard spot after missing all of last season with a broken leg. He has Pro Bowl potential. If there’s a question mark up front, it’s at right tackle, where the Cardinals don’t have a ready replacement for Eric Winston.
Like many teams, the Cardinals have gone to a committee at running back, and they have an ideal combo in second-year pros Andre Ellington and Stepfan Taylor. Ellington was a revelation as a rookie. He’s a home-run hitter — the best comparison is a younger version of Darren Sproles — who averaged 5.5 yards per rush and has the potential to wow you every time he touches the ball. But, at 5'9" and 199 pounds, Ellington can’t handle a heavy workload. That’s where Taylor comes in. The Stanford product is a more effective inside rusher, and he’ll allow the Cardinals to limit Ellington’s carries to 15 or so per game.
The running game will serve as an appetizer to Arians’ love for the deep passing game. Don’t be surprised if this is the year Michael Floyd supplants Larry Fitzgerald as the team’s No. 1 receiver. Floyd had more receiving yards (1,041) than Fitzgerald (954) last year. Fitzgerald, who will turn 31 in late August, is simply not as dominant as he once was. The Cardinals needed a third receiver after losing Andre Roberts to Washington, and they filled the void by signing Ted Ginn, who had 36 catches and five touchdowns last year with Carolina.
When at full strength, the Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They ranked sixth in total defense last year, first in rushing defense and allowed just 20.3 points per game. Unfortunately, injuries and other circumstances have already significantly impacted this unit's depth chart.
The biggest blow came on Aug. 18 when veteran defensive end Darnell Dockett tore the ACL in his right knee during a training camp practice. Dockett enjoyed a bounce-back year under coordinator Todd Bowles last season. Now even more of the burden will fall on fellow end Calais Campbell, who plays at a Pro Bowl level, even if he is snubbed by the voters every year. Nose tackle Dan Williams likely will never live up to his draft position (26th pick overall in 2010), but he’s become an effective player who can disrupt the inside running game. The team also added veteran defensive tackle Isaac Sopoaga on a one-year deal to take Dockett's roster spot.
If there’s a concern defensively, it’s at linebacker. Karlos Dansby was the team’s best player last year, but he left for bigger dollars in Cleveland. Inside linebacker Daryl Washington was expected to anchor the defense in Dansby's absence, but he has been suspended for all of 2014 for another violation of the NFL's substance-abuse policy. Additionally, fellow veteran John Abraham, who led the team with 11.5 sacks in 2013, could be facing league discipline stemming from a DUI incident in June. Arizona does have 2013 second-round pick Kevin Minter waiting in the wings, but he's dealing with a strained pectoral muscle. The bottom line is that more than one player will have to step up in order for this group to be effective.
If there is a silver lining for this defense, it's in the secondary. Arizona has two shutdown corners in Patrick Peterson and free-agent signee Antonio Cromartie and a dynamic playmaking free safety in Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu likely will miss most of training camp as he recovers from knee surgery, but Arizona expects him back early in the season. Peterson, a first-team All-Pro last season, signed a five-year, $70 million ($48 million guaranteed) contract extension in late July that made him the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL.
The Cardinals addressed their glaring need for a big, physical strong safety with the first-round selection of Deone Bucannon. Tight ends killed the team last year, but Arizona believes the 6'1", 208-pound Bucannon can limit that damage and, over time, become the reincarnation of Adrian Wilson.
The Cardinals should have one of the best special teams units in the NFL. The only question mark enterting the season is at placekicker. Despite connecting on 30 of 36 field goal attempts last season, Arizona cut veteran Jay Feely near the end of training camp. That leaves the kicking duties to undrafted rookie Chandler Cantanzaro, who was one of college football's most productive kicker during his tenure at Clemson. Punter Dave Zastudil is one of the best in the business at placing the ball inside the 20, and gunner Justin Bethel made the Pro Bowl last year for his coverage skills. The big offseason addition was Ginn, who will replace Peterson on punt returns and give Arizona some much-needed explosiveness on kick returns. Ginn averaged 12.2 yards per punt return and 23.8 yards per kick return in 2013.
If they were in any other division and they were completely healthy, the Cardinals would be considered a sure-fire playoff team. At full strength, they have one of the best defenses in the NFL, their offense should benefit from the upgraded offensive line, and Palmer should be more effective now that he’s had a season to digest Arians’ offensive system. But, of course, the Cardinals reside in the NFC West, home of the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and much-improved St. Louis Rams. That combined with the personnel losses on defense have made what was already a tough road to the postseason that much more difficult. It’s hard to imagine these Cardinals being able to take that next step and supplant both the Seahawks and 49ers — unless both those teams suffer an important long-term injury of their own. Arizona's best option would be to earn one of the Wild Card berths, but remember the Cardinals went 10-6 last season and didn't get in.
PREDICTION: 3rd in NFC West
Three straight trips to the playoffs have produced nothing but disappointment, topped by last January’s 27–10 loss at home against San Diego. The Bengals have improved their record each of the last three regular seasons, going from 9–7 in 2011 to 10–6 in 2012 and then 11–5 while winning the AFC North title last season, but that’s little consolation to an organization that hasn’t won a postseason game in 23 years. The core remains intact, but the Bengals did little in the offseason outside of the draft when it came to adding frontline players. That sends the message that head coach Marvin Lewis and the front office believe the pieces are in place to get over that playoff barricade. The question remains how much longer the Bengals can stay with a cast that has repeatedly stumbled when the calendar turns to January.
Quarterback Andy Dalton has been good enough to win Player of the Week and Player of the Month honors, and he’s been bad enough to lose in the playoffs. Hue Jackson is the new offensive coordinator, replacing Jay Gruden, who left to take over as Washington’s head coach, and it’s Jackson’s job to get more out of Dalton. Jackson hopes to do so by asking less of Dalton. His 586 passing attempts equaled a franchise record, but his 61.9 completion percentage is lower than the team needs. While he set franchise records for yards (4,296) and touchdowns (33), Dalton also threw a career-high 20 interceptions. He had at least one pass picked off in 12 of the team’s 17 games, including the playoffs, and threw multiple interceptions in six games. Despite his postseason struggles, the team signed Dalton to a six-year, $115 million contract extension in early August, seemingly cementing his status as Cincinnati's franchise quarterback.
As the Bengals ask Dalton to do less, they must simultaneously improve the efficiency of their run game. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a workmanlike back, but Giovani Bernard is going to get the ball more in his second season. Second-round draft choice Jeremy Hill is going to play sooner than later; he’s a younger, more explosive version of Green-Ellis.
The backs will get the focus, but the offensive line needs to improve its push. Andrew Whitworth will slide back out to play left tackle after the loss of Anthony Collins to Tampa Bay in free agency. Center is up for grabs after the Bengals released Kyle Cook in the offseason. Fourth-round pick Russell Bodine will push veteran Mike Pollak for the job. With left guard Clint Boling recovering from a torn ACL, Pollak could wind up starting in his place while Bodine takes over at center. Boling is a good candidate to start the season on IR and then be brought back after Week 8. The Bengals lack depth should Whitworth or right tackle Andre Smith go out.
Marvin Jones has become a dangerous No. 2 receiver opposite A.J. Green, who is the focus of attention for every defense the Bengals face. Like Dalton, Green is guilty of not playing his best in the postseason. He’s added about 10 pounds of muscle in his upper body this offseason with the hopes of taking his considerable production (260 catches for 3,833 yards and 29 touchdowns in three seasons) to a higher level. According to ProFootballFocus.com, Green has had 21 dropped passes the last two seasons after dropping just five passes as a rookie in 2011. A hot start from Green may be needed even more since Jones will likely miss the first month of the regular season after breaking a bone in his foot during training camp. Jones' absensce presents an opportunity for Mohamed Sanu or Brandon Tate to step up or perhaps tight ends Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham to become more of a factor in the passing game.
Linebacker Vontaze Burfict led the NFL in tackles last season. The secondary has six players who entered the league as first-round draft picks. But it’s the defensive line that drives everything the Bengals do on this side of the ball. Paul Guenther moves from linebackers coach to defensive coordinator, taking over for Mike Zimmer, now the head coach in Minnesota. The philosophy and system won’t change much. The Bengals still want to stop the run first and get after the passer with their front four as much as possible without having to blitz. There will be as many as eight players rotating throughout the game without much drop-off.
The return of All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins from a torn ACL is the most significant upgrade from a season ago. The Bengals still finished ranked No. 3 in yards allowed and tied for fifth in points allowed without Atkins for the final two months of the season. Brandon Thompson played well in his absence but doesn’t command double teams the way Atkins does. Carlos Dunlap has always had a combination of size, arm length and speed that made one take notice, and now he’s playing every down with greater consistency and a higher motor. Michael Johnson isn’t on the other side of him now after signing with Tampa Bay as an unrestricted free agent. Wallace Gilberry tied with Dunlap for the team lead in sacks (7.5) and will start at the right end spot, with second-year player Margus Hunt seeing increased playing time.
Burfict has gone from draft castoff to Pro Bowler in two seasons and he was rewarded by the team with a four-year, $20 million contract extension. He gets to the ball fast and is a sure tackler when he gets there. He stays on the field in nickel packages, which is vital these days as teams increasingly utilize multiple-receiver sets. Vinny Rey proved he belonged on the field last season when he stepped in for an injured Rey Maualuga and produced, including a three-sack game at Baltimore. He’s a little undersized but holds up well against the run. Maualuga is better against the run than he is in coverage. Emmanuel Lamur missed all of last season with a shoulder injury. His return should help in the nickel.
The secondary added another talented piece with the first-round selection of cornerback Darqueze Dennard. It was a pick with an eye toward the future, but Dennard has the ability to play right away. Leon Hall is coming back from a second Achilles tear in two years. This one is his left leg as opposed to the right one he injured in 2011. Hall turns 30 in December. Adam Jones and Reggie Nelson will each be 31 in the first month of the season, while Terence Newman will turn 36. Dre Kirkpatrick, the team’s first pick in 2012, has shown some flashes of ability but is far too inconsistent. The Bengals are still waiting for him to take playing time away from one of the veteran corners. Safety George Iloka will start next to Nelson in the back end.
Punter Kevin Huber returns from suffering a broken jaw and a hairline fracture of cervical vertebrae on a hit from Pittsburgh linebacker Terence Garvin. His ability to pin opponents inside the 20 without touchbacks (24-to-4 ratio in 2013) is his biggest attribute. Kicker Mike Nugent made 18-of-22 field goals last season, including 3-of-4 from 50-plus yards. Brandon Tate hasn’t always been a fan favorite, but all he’s done in three seasons is become the franchise leader in kickoff return average and second in punt return average.
The Bengals can win the division again, and it won’t be a shock if they do, but at some point their best players have to show up when the calendar turns to January. The talent is present to make a deep run in the postseason and challenge for a conference title. It falls heavily upon the shoulders of Dalton, Green and the defense to make that happen.
PREDICTION: 1st in AFC North
The goal for the New Orleans Saints is a straightforward albeit difficult one: Secure home-field advantage in the postseason. Easier said than done in the brutally competitive NFC, which has produced four of the past five Super Bowl champions. Still, it’s imperative for the schizophrenic Saints, who were 8–0 at the Superdome in the 2013 regular season and 3–5 on the road. In the postseason during the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era, they are 4–0 at home and 1–4 on the road. It’s no coincidence that the Saints’ lone Super Bowl title came in 2009 when they played host to the NFC Championship Game. Since then, three of the Saints’ four seasons have ended on the West Coast with playoff losses at Seattle and San Francisco. Somehow, the Saints need to win enough games in the regular season to secure home-field edge in the playoffs and force their competition to visit them in January rather than vice versa.
As long as the crafty Brees is under center and the aggressive Payton is on the sideline, the Saints are going to gain yards and score points at a high rate. Brees will turn 36 in January, making him the third-oldest quarterback in the NFL, but he remains as prolific as ever. Only Peyton Manning passed for more than Brees’ 5,162 yards and 39 touchdowns in 2013.
While Brees remains one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the game, there are legitimate concerns about the rest of the offense. The line yielded 37 sacks last season, the most in the Brees/Payton era. The staff believes the late-season promotion of athletic Terron Armstead to left tackle will be a big part of the solution. The Saints are counting on Armstead to blossom after a full offseason in the club’s strength and conditioning program. Right tackle Zach Strief was re-signed to protect Brees’ other flank. He engulfs opponents with his massive 6'7" frame, but speed rushers can sometimes give him trouble for the same reason. The strength of the unit is inside, where Pro Bowl guards Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs form a powerful tandem to anchor the pass protection. The Saints will open the season with a new center. The staff is high on Tim Lelito, a former undrafted free agent who will try to make the switch from guard. Depth is a concern up front.
Depth isn’t the problem in the Saints’ receiving corps — production is. Backs and tight ends caught 63 percent of Brees’ passes last season, mainly because his receivers struggled to get open. Then again, when you have a freakishly talented tight end like Jimmy Graham, it’s hard not to look his way. Graham has usurped Marques Colston as Brees’ go-to man in the red zone and should again rank among the league leaders in catches and touchdowns. The steady Colston remains a reliable target on third down, but injuries have taken their toll on the ninth-year veteran. The Saints hope speedy rookie Brandin Cooks can add some much-needed explosiveness to the receiving corps. He led FBS schools with 32 catches of 20 or more yards as a junior. He will compete with second-year receiver Kenny Stills for the starting spot opposite Colston and play a featured role in Payton’s nickel packages. Stills should build on his surprisingly productive rookie season (32 catches with a team-high 20.0 yards per catch).
The Saints’ backfield will continue to employ a running back-by-committee approach, partly by strategic design and partly out of necessity. It’s make-or-break year for Mark Ingram. The former Heisman Trophy winner showed signs of promise down the stretch in 2013 and led the club with a 4.9-yards-per-carry average, but the Saints tellingly did not pick up the fifth-year option on his contract, rendering him a free agent after this season. He should be motivated for a big season and needs it. If Ingram slips, look for Khiry Robinson to assume his carries. The former free agent from West Texas A&M has a rare combination of power and shiftiness. Pierre Thomas is the top option in Payton’s nickel and two-minute offense.
Injuries forced coordinator Rob Ryan to scrap his 3-4 scheme for a 4-2-5 alignment, and the Saints responded with one of the most remarkable turnarounds in the league. A year removed from allowing the most yards in a season in NFL history, the Saints ranked fourth in total defense, primarily because of their imposing young line. End Cameron Jordan and outside linebacker/end hybrid Junior Galette form one of the best pass-rush tandems in the league. Both are quick and explosive off the edge. The unit’s unsung hero is towering end/tackle Akiem Hicks, who collapses the pocket with his powerful bull rushes. Brodrick Bunkley and John Jenkins anchor against the run at nose tackle. Their dirty work allows linebackers Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne the freedom to roam and make tackles sideline to sideline.
The overhauled secondary is led by cornerback Keenan Lewis and safeties Jairus Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro. Lewis thrived in Ryan’s bump-and-run system and emerged as a shutdown corner in his first season in New Orleans. More often than not, teams choose to throw away from his side of the field. The Saints paid big money to lure Byrd to New Orleans in free agency. The hope is that he’ll produce more takeaways with his instincts and playmaking ability in center field. Vaccaro lacks Byrd’s ball skills but is the perfect complement with versatility and physical intimidation.
Veteran Champ Bailey has the inside track for the starting spot opposite Lewis. The Saints are hoping to squeeze a final productive season or two out of the future Hall of Famer. Former first-round pick Patrick Robinson, Corey White and second-round draft pick Stanley Jean-Baptiste will compete for the nickel and dime spots. All have the rangy size Ryan loves.
The Saints are a mixed bag here. Punter/kickoff specialist Thomas Morstead is one of the best in the league. His powerful right leg accounts for scores of hidden yards each game. Veteran kicker Shayne Graham is solid if not spectacular as he enters his 14th season. The return units are dying for a spark. Cooks and Travaris Cadet will get the first crack at punt and kickoff return duties, respectively.
The Saints are the class of the NFC South. Their young defense should only improve in its second season under Ryan, and the offense remains the most prolific in the division. A fifth playoff berth in six seasons looks certain, but the Saints must find a way to overcome NFC kingpins Seattle and San Francisco out West. The Saints hold one major advantage in the potential competition for home-field advantage: The NFC South is a cupcake festival compared to the NFC West gauntlet. If the Saints can win enough games to earn home-field advantage in the playoffs, they’ll be a threat to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLIX. But that’s a big “if.” Otherwise, the 49ers and Seahawks remain a slight cut above the Saints in the NFC.
PREDICTION: 1st in NFC South
We all know the Gunner Kiel story — he was a high-profile recruit that led a short, yet illustrious career at Columbus East High School (IN), verbally committed and de-commited to both Indiana and LSU, signed with Notre Dame and then transferred to Cincinnati.
Now a redshirt sophomore, Kiel has finally found stable ground with the Bearcats. Nevertheless, having never taken a college snap—not to mention just 16 starts in high school—his expectations have skyrocketed over the last nine months.
And for what reason?
Cincinnati has been picked as the favorite to win the American Athletic Conference this season, despite returning only 13 starters to a team that fell short of preseason expectations in 2013. Most of this rides on Kiel; if he competes at the level that most of everyone believes he’s capable of, then the Bearcats should take the AAC by storm. But if he is another Brendon Kay, then UC’s chances are decreased significantly and an eight-win season is imminent.
It’s a gamble, really—there’s so much uncertainty that goes along with Kiel’s hype that it’s almost absurd to think he can step in and be the best quarterback Cincinnati has ever had (which is pretty much the consensus at this point).
We can thank his recruiting profile for these lofty expectations. At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds and a rocket arm, Kiel was a five-star prospect coming out of high school and the No. 1-rated pro-style quarterback. He had a 98.6 247Sports Composite rating and offers from anywhere you could think of.
The only quarterback from his class that was considered a better recruit (for a lack of a better term) was Jameis Winston, and, well, you know how he’s turned out. Winston was given a 99.1 rating, meaning there’s supposed to be a difference of .5 between the two quarterbacks’ overall abilities.
What is .5? A touchdown? One less interception? A few more completed passes? According to these ratings—which everyone abides by nowadays, even coaches—Gunner Kiel is comparable to the reigning Heisman winner, national champion and future top-10 selection in the NFL draft (probably).
It doesn’t stop there, either.
There are some pretty big names from that 2012 recruiting class that have already made a name for themselves in the collegiates, and all were rated lower than Kiel: Trevor Knight, Maty Mauk, and Wes Lunt were among that list.
Knight threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns in a colossal upset over Alabama in last season’s Sugar Bowl, and has positioned Oklahoma for a College Football Playoff run in 2014.
Mauk took over for the injured James Franklin mid-season, throwing 10 touchdowns in four starts as Missouri went on to play for the SEC Championship.
Lunt had strong moments as a true freshman for Oklahoma State in 2012 before transferring to Illinois, where he was named the starter just a few short days ago.
And then there of course are names like Cyler Miles (Washington), Chad Kelly (Clemson), Chad Voytik (Pittsburgh), Travis Wilson (Utah), and Tommy Armstrong (Nebraska), who are all projected to have strong performances in 2014, but were all rated lower than Kiel.
On top of everything, Cincinnati owns the 95th most difficult schedule in the country, according to Phil Steele. The Bearcats play a strong non-conference schedule with road games at Ohio State (albeit, no Braxton Miller) and Miami (Fla.), but avoid UCF in AAC play and get both ECU and Houston at home.
It doesn’t help that Kiel went 17-of-22 for 300 yards in the first half of Cincinnati’s spring game in April. That’s quite exceptional by anyone’s standards, especially during a time when the defense is generally ahead of the offense when it comes to chemistry and knowing the terminology. It’s also the equivalent to an NFL preseason game, in which other words means close to nothing.
Realistically, Kiel isn’t going to replicate the kind of success Jameis Winston had in his first year as a starter with Florida State. However, if he can be as productive as Tony Pike was back in the Brian Kelly days—or even slightly better, for the sake of his billing—then Cincinnati will be good. Really good.
We’ll find out when Kiel takes his first-ever college snap as the Bearcats take on Toledo on Sept. 12 in the season opener.
Written by Tyler Waddell of AACFootballFever.com. Follow him on Twitter at @Tyler_Waddell and @AAC_FB_Fever