Articles By Mitch Light

All taxonomy terms: College Basketball
Path: /college-basketball/bracket-breakdown-field-68-1
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By Mitch Light

Selection Sunday is just days away. Here's a conference-by-conference look at the Field of 68, as of Friday morning.

ACC (5)
In: Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
Worth a mention: NC State
Notes: NC State is over .500 in the ACC (9–7) and technically has no top-50 RPI wins. But it does have two wins over Miami (No. 55) and one over Texas (No. 52) — and two of those came away from home. The Pack need to beat Virginia in the ACC quarters to have a chance. The biggest intrigue in Atlanta surrounds Duke and North Carolina. The Tar Heels appear to be in decent shape to land a No. 1 seed, but Duke could play its way into that spot if it wins the ACC Tournament.

American East (1)
In:
Stony Brook

A-10 (4)
In:
Dayton, Saint Louis, Temple, Xavier
Worth a mention: Saint Joseph's
Notes: Xavier and Dayton were the two final teams in the field as of Friday morning. It’s tough to differentiate between these two rivals. Xavier’s computer numbers are a bit better, but Dayton has better wins. Xavier did win at Vanderbilt, but the Commodores were missing center Festus Ezeli at the time. Dayton has wins over Alabama (at full strength), at Temple (not at full strength), vs. Saint Louis and vs. Ole Miss. This debate will be settled on the court, however, as these two rivals play in the A-10 Tournament tomorrow night in Atlantic City. The winner should be in decent shape. The loser could still be in, but it will be very close.

A-Sun (1)
In:
Belmont

Big 12 (6)
In: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas
Worth a mention: None
Notes: Texas picked up a huge win over Iowa State Thursday in the Big 12 Tournament. The Horns are in good shape.

Big East (10)
In:
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia
Worth a mention: None
Notes: West Virginia is still in decent shape, even after blowing a lead vs. UConn in the Big East Tournament. Seton Hall, with seven top-100 RPI wins, is on shaky ground; beating Louisville Wednesday night would have ended any doubt. South Florida was impressive in its win over Villanova on Wednesday, but let one get away vs. Notre Dame on Thursday. Seton Hall and South Florida will be sweating Selection Sunday.

Big Sky (1)
In:
Montana

Big South (1)
In:
UNC-Asheville

Big Ten (6)
In:
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Worth a mention: Northwestern
Notes: Northwestern’s chances took a huge hit with the OT loss to Minnesota on Thursday. Simply put, it’s hard to put a team that is only 1–10 vs. RPI top-50 teams into the field. The Wildcats have had ample opportunities to get that ‘big’ win, but only did so once — vs. Michigan State at home.

Big West (1)
In:
Long Beach State.

Colonial (2)
In: Drexel, VCU
Notes: Drexel snuck in on Thursday night after Mississippi State lost to Georgia. The Dragons don’t have the profile of an NCAA team — they have one win over a top-80 RPI team (VCU at home) and have three losses to teams ranked 120 or lower — but Bruiser Flint’s club did win 27 games and dominate the CAA. This one is tough.

C-USA (2)
In:
Memphis, Southern Miss

Horizon (1)
In:
Detroit

Ivy (1)
In:
Harvard

MAAC (1)
In:
Loyola
Worth a mention: Iona
Iona is 25–7 with an RPI of 40. The Gaels have four top-100 wins but also have two losses to teams ranked 220 or worse. It’s hard to pick between Iona and Drexel.

MAC (1)
In:
Akron

MEAC (1)
In:
Norfolk State

MVC (2)
In:
Creighton, Wichita State

MWC (4)
In:
Colorado State New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV
Worth a mention: None
Notes: Colorado State picked up a convincing 81–60 win over TCU in the MWC quarterfinals on Thursday. The Rams are in.

Northeast (1)
In:
Long Island

OVC (1)
In:
Murray State

Pac 12 (1)
In:
California
Worth a mention: Arizona, Oregon, Washington
Notes: Washington suffered a crushing blow in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament, losing to Oregon State. The Huskies won the regular season but do not have a win vs. a team ranked in the top-80 of the RPI. That is stunning. Arizona has only one win to brag about, at Cal in early February. The Cats might have to win the league tourney to get in. Oregon (RPI 63, KenPom 63) played well down the stretch but lost to Colorado in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. The Ducks are done.

Patriot (1)
In:
Lehigh

SEC (4)
In:
Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Worth a mention: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Notes: Mississippi State played its way out Thursday night with a loss to Georgia — its second of the season to the Dawgs — in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. Crushing. Tennessee has two wins over Florida and a win at home vs. Vanderbilt, but there also several warts on the résumé. They are 17–13 overall (win vs. Chaminade doesn’t count) and have four losses to 100+ RPI teams. This is a good team that might have to reach the SEC semis to warrant serious consideration. Ole Miss will have to beat Tennessee on Friday night to remain in the picture. The Rebels have some solid wins — Alabama (with JaMychal Green back in the lineup), Miami, Mississippi State — but also has a lot of losses (12).

Southern (1)
In:
Davidson

Southland (1)
In:
UT-Arlington

Summit (1)
In:
South Dakota State
Worth a mention: Oral Roberts
ORU’s résumé looks similar to Drexel’s and Iona’s — a lot of wins, but not a lot of good ones. In a normal year, this team wouldn’t have much of a shot at an at-large bid. But this isn’t a normal year.

Sun Belt (1)
In:
Western Kentucky

SWAC (1)
In:
Mississippi Valley State

WAC (1)
In:
Nevada

WCC (3)
In: BYU, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Notes: BYU has solid numbers (RPI 46, KenPom 48), and six of the Cougars’ eight losses have come against teams ranked in the RPI top 30.
 

Teaser:
<p> Selection Sunday is just days away. Here's a conference-by-conference&nbsp;look at the Field of 68, as of Friday morning.</p>
Post date: Friday, March 9, 2012 - 09:48
Path: /college-basketball/temple-great-get-big-east
Body:

By Mitch Light

Conference realignment is being driven by football. That is undeniable. And for the most part, college basketball will suffer. We are losing the twice-annual Border War between Kansas and Missouri. We are losing Pittsburgh and Syracuse at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament — and gaining schools like SMU, UCF and Houston.

But finally, we are seeing some moves that will actually improve the college basketball landscape. First, Memphis was added to the Big East for all sports beginning in 2013. This proud program has dominated Conference USA in recent years and will bring a national brand to the Big East. And then, on Wednesday morning, the league extended an invitation to A-10 power Temple, which will be making its 30th NCAA Tournament appearance this season — most for any school not currently in a Big Six power conference.

This most recent move was done to give the Big East eight football-playing schools for the 2012 season after West Virginia bailed for the Big 12 earlier than expected. It’s a good move for Big East football (Temple has improved dramatically since being kicked out of the league after the ’04 season). But it’s a great move for Big East basketball. 

This storied league has taken a few hits in recent years. Expansion has watered down the product. Yes, Louisville and Marquette are quality programs who are consistently in the NCAA Tournament. But South Florida, DePaul and Rutgers have done nothing to improve the overall quality of play in the league.

The impending loss of both Syracuse and Pitt to the ACC will be a crushing blow. These are two outstanding programs that have routinely competed for league championships. Pitt is suffering through a rare down season — the Panthers will miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2001 — but Syracuse is as good as ever, with a current No. 2 national ranking.

The recent wave of Big East expansion resulted in the addition of SMU, Houston and UCF for football and basketball and San Diego State, Boise State and Navy for football only. This news, to no one’s surprise, was not greeted too fondly by the league’s basketball fans. SMU, Houston and UCF hardly even move the needle in their own markets, let alone the Northeast, home to the majority of the league’s teams.

Now, however, some good news. Memphis and Temple are outstanding programs that will add some intrigue to Big East basketball. We are still stuck with SMU, UCF and DePaul (to name a few), but we can now look forward, beginning in the 2013-14 season, to some great matchups in the future. Memphis vs. Louisville (or Cincinnati) on Big Monday will be appointment viewing. As will Temple vs. Villanova or Georgetown.

The Big East can never go back to its glory days of the 1980s and 1990s when Georgetown, St. John’s and Syracuse created some of the great matchups in the game. But the league is still very good — and it just got better with the addition of Temple.
 

Teaser:
<p> Temple was added to the Big East to give the league eight football-playing members, but the Owls will be a great addition for men's basketball.</p>
Post date: Thursday, March 8, 2012 - 06:11
Path: /college-basketball/college-basketball-players-year
Body:

By Mitch Light

Athlon Sports is in the business of preseason prognostications, so let’s look back at who we tabbed as the preseason Player of the Year in the nation’s top conferences and who deserves the award in the postseason.

ACC
Preseason Pick: Harrison Barnes, North Carolina
Postseason Pick: Tyler Zeller, North Carolina
Barnes has been very good as a sophomore, and Virginia’s Mike Scott has been great as a senior, but Zeller has been the most impactful player in the league. The senior center is averaging 16.3 points and 9.3 rebounds and has been a force on defense for the Tar Heels. Barnes and point guard Kendall Marshall make more headlines for UNC, but Zeller has been the team’s best player.

Atlantic 10
Preseason Pick:
Tu Holloway, Xavier
Postseason Pick: Ramon Moore, Temple
A senior guard from Philadelphia, Moore has been superb in his final season with the Owls. He is second in the A-10 in scoring at 17.8 points per game and is also chipping in 4.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists per night. Moore is part of a senior class that will be playing in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth consecutive season. St. Bonaventure big man Andew Nicholson was a close second.

Big 12
Preseason Pick:
Perry Jones III, Baylor
Postseason Pick: Thomas Robinson, Kansas
A role player last season as a sophomore on a star-studded Kansas roster, Robinson emerged this season as arguably the finest player in the nation. The 6'9", 247-pound power forward is averaging 18.0 points and a Big-12-best 11.9 rebounds for a Jayhawk team that won its eighth straight league championship.

Big East
Preseason Pick:
Ashton Gibbs, Pittsburgh
Postseason Pick: Jae Crowder, Marquette
West Virginia’s Kevin Jones was outstanding as a senior, but the nod goes to Crowder, whose team had a better season. The former junior college transfer is the heart & soul of the Golden Eagles, who finished in second place in the league standings. He averaged 17.6 points and 7.9 rebounds while shooting .512 from the field and .361 from 3-point range.

Big Ten
Preseason Pick: Jared Sullinger, Ohio State
Postseason Pick: Draymond Green, Michigan State
Sullinger has been very good for the Buckeyes, but Green might be the most valuable player in the country. He has been very productive on the court (16.2 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 3.5 apg), and has also provided great senior leadership for a Michigan State program that had some chemistry issues last season.

Mountain West
Preseason Pick:
Drew Gordon, New Mexico
Postseason Pick: Drew Gordon, New Mexico
This came down to San Diego State guard Jamaal Franklin and a pair of transfers from UCLA, Gordon and Mike Moser of UNLV. Gordon gets the nod for his strong play late in the year. In a four-day stretch in mid-February, he averaged 22.0 points and 18.5 rebounds as the Lobos beat MWC rivals San Diego State (by 10 points) and UNLV (by 20). Then, on the final Saturday of the regular season, Gordon scored 30 points and had 12 rebounds in a win over Air Force.

Pac-10
Preseason Pick: Josh Smith, UCLA
Postseason Pick: Jorge Gutierrez, CaliforniaHis stats won’t overwhelm you (12.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.0 apg), but Gutierrez is one of the best all-around players in college basketball. Known more for his defense earlier in his career, Gutierrez has developed into a more-than-adequate offensive weapon for the Bears, who are headed to the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season.

SEC
Preseason Pick:
Terrence Jones, Kentucky
Postseason Pick: Anthony Davis, Kentucky
Davis has been productive on offense as a freshman (14.4 ppg), but he has done his best work on the defensive end of the court. He leads the nation in blocked shots (4.7 bpg) and has altered countless others. He is the primary reason why Kentucky is the most feared defensive team in the nation.

Teaser:
<p> Athlon Sports is in the business of preseason prognostications, so let’s look back at who we tabbed as the preseason Player of the Year in the nation’s top conferences and who deserves the award in the postseason.</p>
Post date: Tuesday, March 6, 2012 - 10:13
All taxonomy terms: College Basketball
Path: /college-basketball/bracket-breakdown-field-68-0
Body:

The first Automatic bids will be handed out this weekend. Selection Sunday is just over a week away. Here is our look at the Field of 68.

ACC (5)
In:
Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
Worth a mention: NC State
Notes: NC State is over .500 in the ACC (8–7) and technically has no top-50 RPI wins. But it does have two wins over Miami (No. 52) and one over Texas (No. 54) — and two of those came away from home. The Pack will need to get something done in the ACC Tournament. Miami remains in the field after beating Florida State at home (without Reggie Johnson) and then losing by four at NC State. The Hurricanes’ win at Duke is the difference-maker. Virginia has lost four of six, including Thursday night’s buzzer at home to Florida State. The Cavs might start to sweat if they lose at Maryland on Sunday.

American East (1)
In:
Stony Brook

A-10 (2)
In:
Saint Louis, Temple
Worth a mention: Dayton, Saint Joseph’s, UMass, Xavier
Notes: Xavier is out after failing to protect a 10-point lead at the half vs. Saint Louis. The Musketeers haven’t won two straight games since mid-January. Dayton has three top-30 RPI wins, but also had two losses to teams ranked in the 200s.

A-Sun (1)
In:
Belmont

Big 12 (6)
In:
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas
Worth a mention: None
Notes: Six of Texas’ 11 losses have come against North Carolina, Kansas, Baylor (twice) and Missouri (twice). The only thing close to a bad loss for the Horns was a neutral-court two-OT setback vs. Oregon State. They have a win over Temple on their résumé, too. Iowa State removed any doubt by winning at Kansas State last week.

Big East (10)
In:
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia
Worth a mention: None
Notes: It was a good week for South Florida, which beat Cincinnati on Sunday and won at Louisville on Wednesday — despite scoring a total of 104 points. Despite a 12–5 Big East record, the Bulls still aren’t safe, though. Beating West Virginia at home on Saturday would help. West Virginia is trending in the wrong direction, but there is still enough meat on the bone (wins vs. Georgetown and K-State) to keep the Mountaineers in the field.

Big Sky (1)
In:
Montana

Big South (1)
In:
UNC-Asheville

Big Ten (7)
In:
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Worth a mention: Illinois,
Notes: It was another painful loss for Northwestern, but there is no shame in losing by one point to Ohio State, even at home. The game at Iowa on Saturday is enormous — quite possibly the biggest game in school history. Win and the Cats are likely in. Lose and they will need to win several games in Indy. Illinois’ late-season slide continued with a loss at home to Michigan on Thursday night.

Big West (1)
In:
Long Beach State.

Colonial (1)
In:
Drexel
Worth a mention: George Mason, VCU
Notes: VCU’s profile has received a boost by South Florida’s recent surge. The Rams beat USF by 23 points in November. They will be tough to keep out, especially if they reach the CAA finals. George Mason boasts a gaudy 14–4 mark in the CAA but has no wins vs. top 50 RPI teams. Its best wins are at home against Bucknell and VCU.

C-USA (2)
In:
Memphis, Southern Miss
Worth a mention: UCF
Notes: The Knights have lost three of their past five, including a damaging setback at Rice. The RPI (66) likes this team more than KenPom (94).

Horizon (1)
In:
Valparaiso

Ivy (1)
In:
Harvard

MAAC (1)
In:
Iona

MAC (1)
In:
Akron

MEAC (1)
In:
Savannah State

MVC (2)
In:
Creighton, Wichita State

MWC (4)
In:
Colorado State New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV
Worth a mention: None
Notes: Colorado State has wins at home over UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico, but has done nothing on the road. The Rams are 29 in the RPI but 79 in KenPom. They have a lot of losses (10), as well. Last team in for now.

Northeast (1)
In:
Long Island

OVC (1)
In:
Murray State

Pac 12 (2)
In:
California, Washington
Worth a mention: Arizona, Colorado, Oregon
Notes: Washington is in as the projected Pac-12 Tournament champion. Arizona has only one win to brag about, at Cal in early February. The Cats might have to win the league tourney to get in. Colorado has some decent wins but has done very little away from home. Oregon (RPI 44, KenPom 71) has won five of six games and is now 12–5 in the Pac-12. The Ducks are in the hunt.

Patriot (1)
In:
Bucknell

SEC (5)
In:
Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Worth a mention: Tennessee
Notes: Mississippi State stopped the bleeding with an overtime win at South Carolina on Wednesday night. The Bulldogs’ RPI is 60, and they are ranked 72nd in KenPom. Those are dangerous waters. They have to beat Arkansas at home on Saturday. Tennessee has an opportunity to be the No. 2 seed in the SEC Tournament (the Vols have to beat Vanderbilt), but is still a longshot for an at-large bid. Cuonzo Martin’s club has two great wins over Florida, but not much else to brag about. They are 16–13 overall and have four losses to 100+ RPI teams.

Southern (1)
In:
Davidson

Southland (1)
In:
UT-Arlington

Summit (1)
In:
Oral Roberts

Sun Belt (1)
In:
Middle Tennessee

SWAC (1)
In:
Mississippi Valley State

WAC (1)
In
: Nevada

WCC (3)
In:
BYU, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Notes: BYU has solid numbers (RPI 46, KenPom 37) and two wins vs. teams projected to make the field, Gonzaga and Nevada. Saint Mary’s bounced back from a two-game slide to beat Portland and San Francisco on the road.
 

Teaser:
<p> Selection Sunday is just over a week away. Here is Athlon Sports Field of 68, if the Tournament started today.</p>
Post date: Friday, March 2, 2012 - 09:57
All taxonomy terms: College Basketball
Path: /college-basketball/college-basketball-games-watch-weekend
Body:

Saturday, March 3

West Virginia at South Florida
It’s a matchup between two Big East bubble teams that would love to close the regular season with a win. It’s hard to say which team needs this game more.

Pittsburgh at Connecticut
The Big East schedule-makers probably didn’t envision that these two teams would have a combined 21 league losses (at least) on the final weekend of the season.

Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Kansas State followed up wins at Baylor and Missouri by losing at home to Iowa State. The Cats rebounded with a win at A&M on Tuesday. Frank Martin is begging for more consistency from his team.

Southern Miss at Marshall
Southern Miss is on the verge of its first NCAA  appearance since 1991. Winning at Marshall isn’t a must, but the Golden Eagles could use another solid victory away from home.

Washington at UCLA
Washington will be tough for the Selection Committee to evaluate. The Huskies have plenty of talent but lack quality wins.

Georgetown at Marquette
Marquette’s five-game winning streak ended Wednesday night at Cincinnati. Georgetown has the size to punish the Golden Eagles in the paint. This is an intriguing matchup.

Cincinnati at Villanova
The Bearcats have been living life on the bubble for the past two months. They should be in good shape after beating Marquette and Louisville at home in the past 10 days.

Northwestern at Iowa
This could end up being the most important regular-season game in the history of Northwestern basketball. No pressure, Wildcats.

Vanderbilt at Tennessee
The Commodores rolled past Tennessee with ease in Nashville, but the Volunteers have been a tough out in Knoxville.

Alabama at Ole Miss
Bama heads into the final week of the regular season playing its best basketball of the season. Anthony Grant will have the Tide in the NCAAs for the first time since ’06.

Louisville at Syracuse
Louisville had Big East bully Syracuse on the ropes at the Yum Center, but committed some costly turnovers late in the game. The Cards will have to be nearly perfect to win in the Dome.

Arkansas at Mississippi State
The Bulldogs’ late-season slide has put them in must-win mode. Arkansas beat State by 10 in Fayetteville, but the Hogs have struggled mightily on the road.

Seton Hall at DePaul
This is a tough spot for Seton Hall. A win at DePaul does nothing to enhance its NCAA Tournament profile, but a loss would prove fatal.

San Diego State at TCU
Fort Worth has suddenly become one of the tougher places to play on the MWC circuit. The Frogs have defeated Colorado State, UNLV and New Mexico in consecutive home games.

North Carolina at Duke
The stakes couldn’t be higher when these two arch-rivals get together Saturday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The winner will be the outright ACC regular-season champ and earn the No. 1 seed in the league tournament.

Texas at Kansas
Texas can wrap up an at-large invite with a win over Kansas in Lawrence. That, obviously, is no easy task. The Longhorns most likely will head to the Big 12 Tournament needing to win a few games to feel good about their NCAA chances.

Sunday, March 4

Kentucky at Florida
Kentucky has already wrapped up the SEC title, but it’s always fun when the Wildcats and Gators get together in Gainesville. Florida could improve its seed a spot or two with a win.

Illinois at Wisconsin
The Fighting Illini's slide continued Thursday night at home vs. Michigan. A win in Madison is always nice, but Illinois probably needs to win the Big Ten Tournament to make the NCAAs.

Virginia at Maryland
It's not quite time to panic for Virginia, but the Cavs aren't playing their best ball of late. Selection Sunday will be a lot less stressful if they win this game.

Ohio State at Michigan State
Michigan State has already clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title. The Spartans will win the outright title with a win over the Buckeyes.

Purdue at Indiana
Purdue has played its way into the NCAA Tournament by winning four of its last five games. The Boilers would love to get some revenge after losing to IU in West Lafayette in early February.

NC Sate at Virginia Tech
NC State is showing signs of life after beating Miami at home on Wednesday night. The Pack needs to win this game in Blacksburg and then win a few games at the ACC Tournament.

Teaser:
<p> This is the final weekend of regular-season play in many conferences in college basketball. Here's a look at some of the big games of the weekend.&nbsp;</p>
Post date: Thursday, March 1, 2012 - 20:42
Path: /college-basketball/pressure-west-virginia-northwestern
Body:

Which team is under the most pressure in this final week of the regular season?

Patrick Snow: I think the West Virginia Mountaineers are under a ton of pressure if they want to make a fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance. Bob Huggins’ club is currently tied for ninth in the rough Big East, and WVU has not been playing quality ball down the stretch. After starting the season at 15–5 overall and 5–2 in league play, the Mountaineers have lost seven of their last nine games. Those seven defeats include four home games, and WVU suffered a very tough loss last Friday after blowing an 11-point halftime lead against Marquette. Seniors Truck Bryant and Kevin Jones have led the team all season but have been inconsistent lately. WVU travels to South Florida on Saturday to face a Bulls club that has been very tough this season. A quality road win in the last regular-season game could be the difference-maker in getting the Mountaineers off the bubble, instead of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since Huggins’ return to Morgantown.

Mitch Light: There’s a bunch of options here, but I will go with Northwestern, which is scratching and clawing to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. The Wildcats are currently 17–11 overall and 7–9 in the Big Ten with an RPI of 43. They close the regular season with a home date with Ohio State on Wednesday and a tricky road game at Iowa on Saturday. If they beat Ohio State, they will be a virtual lock for the Tournament. If not, however, Bill Carmody’s club will head to Iowa City in must-win mode against an Iowa team that beat Indiana and Wisconsin in its last two home games. There’s no denying that this will be a stressful week for everyone associated with Northwestern basketball.


What conference tournament are you most looking forward to?

Patrick Snow: I am very excited for the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament this weekend. We all know the success that the CAA has had in recent NCAA Tournaments, producing two Final Four teams over the last six years — George Mason in 2006 and VCU in 2011. Even though three league squads (Drexel, VCU and George Mason) have 23 wins or more, I’m not sure that multiple teams will be invited to this season’s March Madness. That fact will make for a very exciting and pressure-packed league tourney. Three other CAA teams — Old Dominion, Delaware and Georgia State — have double-digit win totals in league play, so it should be wide open in Richmond. Drexel is the top seed on the strength of 17 consecutive victories, while fifth-place Delaware has won eight straight CAA games. VCU and George Mason will also be tough outs, as the CAA tourney figures to produce an electric atmosphere with multiple teams trying to reach their NCAA Tournament goal.

Mitch Light: I think the Missouri Valley Tournament in St. Louis — or Arch Madness, as it’s called — will be fun to watch. The league has two very good teams at the top in Wichita State (16–2) and Creighton (14–4) and then incredible balance with five teams finishing in a tie for third place at 9–9 in the league. Wichita State is the obvious favorite, but Creighton boasts the Valley’s best player in sophomore forward Doug McDermott, the son of head coach Greg McDermott. Looking for a sleeper? Indiana State was a bit of a disappointment this season with an 8–10 league record, but Greg Lansing’s club returns most of the key players from last year’s team that won the MVC Tournament title.

Nathan Rush: The SEC Tournament is must-see TV. Kentucky is the prohibitive favorite to win the national championship. But can the Wildcats cruise to the SEC crown, as they have in each of John Calipari's first two seasons at UK? If they are tested in a do-or-die tournament setting, how will Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and the young Cats react? Also, the SEC has two of the more intriguing NCAA Tournament wild cards. Both Florida and Vanderbilt have the firepower to make a run in March. But if the Gators and Commodores don't get hot at the right time, either (or both) could easily stagger early in the Dance. UF and VU are hit or miss. But which is it? Then there's Alabama, a well-coached club that can stifle just about any offense on the right night. There is plenty of NCAA Tournament insight to be gleaned from the SEC Tournament — which, coincidentally, is in New Orleans, the site of this year's Final Four.



 

Teaser:
<p> The regular season is winding down in the Big Six power conferences. Several teams are in desperate need of some quality wins.&nbsp;</p>
Post date: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 - 11:45
All taxonomy terms: College Basketball
Path: /college-basketball/bracket-breakdown-field-68
Body:

ACC (5)
In:
Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
Worth a mention: NC State
Notes: NC State had three opportunities in the past eight days to pick up a much-needed marquee win, but the Pack went 0-for-3 with the meltdown at Duke the most painful. If they sweep their remaining regular-season games (at Clemson, vs. Miami, at Virginia Tech), they should be in good shape heading into the ACC Tournament. Miami has only one good win — but it was very good, at Duke. The Canes also have no bad losses. A win on Saturday vs. Florida State would be a nice boost.

American East (1)
In:
Vermont

A-10 (3)
In:
Saint Louis, Temple, Xavier
Worth a mention: Dayton, Saint Joseph’s, UMass
Notes: Xavier was among the final teams in the field this week.
The Musketeers’ best win was at Vanderbilt, but that was in November when the Commodores were playing without Festus Ezeli. They have a huge game next Tuesday at Saint Louis. Win, and the X-Men will likely make the field. Dayton has three top-35 RPI wins, but also had two losses to teams ranked in the 200s. The Flyers have eight top-100 RPI wins — a solid number for a bubble team. Saint Joe’s loss at home to Richmond on Wednesday was very damaging.

A-Sun (1)
In:
Belmont

Big 12 (6)
In:
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas
Worth a mention: None
Notes: Six of Texas’ 11 losses have come against North Carolina, Kansas, Baylor (twice) and Missouri (twice). The only thing close to a bad loss for the Horns was a neutral-court two-OT setback vs. Oregon State. They have a win over Temple on their résumé, too. Iowa State doesn’t have a top-100 win away from home, but the Clones have dates at Kansas State and Missouri looming, plus a home game vs. Baylor.

Big East (9)
In:
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Syracuse, West Virginia
Worth a mention: South Florida
Notes: South Florida played very well on Wednesday night at Syracuse, but lost 56–48. The Bulls are 10–5 in the Big East but are lacking quality wins. They have won at Pitt and Villanova, but those two teams are a combined 8–22 in the Big East. With a season-ending schedule that has home games vs. Cincinnati and West Virginia sandwiched around a trip to Louisville, USF will have several opportunities to pick up some decent wins. Cincinnati picked up a huge win Thursday night at home vs. Louisville. Some UC doubters will point to an RPI of 74, which is admittedly very high, but that is a product of a very soft non-conference schedule that included nine games vs. teams ranked 200 or worse in the RPI. Keep in mind that the Bearcats are ranked No. 39 by KenPom and have seven wins away from home. Seton Hall solidified its résumé with a convincing win over Georgetown. West Virginia is trending in the wrong direction (2–6 in last eight), but there is still enough meat on the bone (wins vs. Georgetown and K-State) to keep the Mountaineers in the field.

Big Sky (1)
In:
Weber State

Big South (1)
In:
UNC-Asheville

Big Ten (7)
In:
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Worth a mention: Illinois, Minnesota.
Notes: Illinois has lost six straight and nine of the past 10 games. Minnesota’s loss Wednesday night at home to Michigan was gut-wrenching. Both the Illini and Gophers probably need to win out in the regular season to even be in the discussion for an at-large bid. Northwestern is still in, even after Tuesday night’s crushing overtime loss to Michigan at home. The Wildcats have a top-5 win (vs. Michigan State) and no bad losses. They probably need to be 8–10 in the Big Ten heading into the league tournament. That means winning two of three vs. Penn State (road), Ohio State (home) and Iowa (road).

Big West (1)
In:
Long Beach State.

Colonial (1)
In:
Drexel
Worth a mention: George Mason, VCU
Notes: George Mason boasts a gaudy 14–3 mark in the CAA but has no wins vs. top 70 RPI teams. Its best wins are at home against Bucknell and VCU. The Rams have played a good schedule but failed to beat any of the good teams on their slate.

C-USA (2)
In:
Memphis, Southern Miss
Worth a mention: UCF
Notes: The Knights are close, thanks to wins vs. Memphis and UConn (on a neutral court). Plus, four of their eight losses have come against teams ranked in the top 35. The RPI (64) likes this team more than KenPom (96).

Horizon (1)
In:
Valparaiso

Ivy (1)
In:
Harvard

MAAC (1)
In:
Iona

MAC (1)
In:
Akron

MEAC (1)
In:
Norfolk State

MVC (2)
In:
Creighton, Wichita State

MWC (3)
In: New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV
Worth a mention: Colorado State
Notes: New Mexico solidified its position with wins over San Diego State and UNLV but then took a small step back with a loss at Colorado State. The Rams have played their way into the discussion. The RPI likes this team (No. 5); KenPom doesn’t (86). CSU’s next two games are at San Diego State and at home vs. UNLV. We’ll know more in a week.

Northeast (1)
In:
Long Island

OVC (1)
In
: Murray State

Pac 12 (3)
In:
Arizona, California, Washington
Worth a mention: Colorado
Notes: Arizona and Washington are new entrants into the field this week. Washington lacks quality wins, but doesn’t really have many bad losses, either. The Huskies’ final three regular-season games are on the road, at Washington State, USC and UCLA. Arizona’s win at Cal in early February is by far its best achievement. The Cats should be glad the field was expanded to 68 teams last year.

Patriot (1)
In:
Bucknell

SEC (5)
In:
Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Worth a mention: LSU, Tennessee
Notes: Mississippi State has lost four in a row and has dipped under .500 in the SEC for the first time this season. The Bulldogs’ RPI is 60, and they are ranked 78th in KenPom. Those are dangerous waters. LSU, on the other hand, has won four straight. The Tigers, however, only have two top-50 wins (and one was vs. an Alabama team that played without four starters), and 12 of their 17 wins have come against teams ranked 120 or lower in the RPI. Tennessee is a nice story, but the Vols likely will have to win the SEC Tournament to make the field. Alabama's win at Arkansas Thursday night boosted the Tide's profile. 

Southern (1)
In:
Davidson

Southland (1)
In:
UT-Arlington

Summit (1)
In:
Oral Roberts

Sun Belt (1)
In:
Middle Tennessee

SWAC (1)
In:
Mississippi Valley State

WAC (1)
In:
Nevada

WCC (3)
In: BYU, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Notes: BYU has solid numbers (RPI 45, KenPom 36) and two wins vs. teams projected to make the field, Gonzaga and Nevada. Saint Mary’s still has decent numbers (RPI 49, KenPom 42) despite losing three of their last five. The Gael’s trip to San Francisco on Saturday could be tricky.
 

Teaser:
<p> Selection Sunday is just over two weeks away. Here is our look at the Field of 68 heading into this weekend's action.</p>
Post date: Friday, February 24, 2012 - 09:19
All taxonomy terms: College Basketball
Path: /college-basketball/college-basketball-weekend-tap
Body:

COLLEGE BASKETBALL
WEEKEND ON TAP

The regular season is winding down. Every game counts. Here's a look at the key games this weekend. 

Saturday, Feb. 25

Vanderbilt at Kentucky
The Commodores threw a scare into Kentucky in Nashville — they led by four points late in the second half — but had no answer for the Wildcats’ defense down the stretch.

Notre Dame at St. John’s
Notre Dame’s incredible run in the Big East has included four straight wins on the road — three by four points or less. This team is playing with a ton of confidence.

LSU at Ole Miss
LSU has won four straight and is above .500 in the SEC for the first time this season. The Tigers need to win their final three regular-season games to be in the discussion for an at-large bid.

UCLA at Arizona
Arizona is a team that cannot afford any bad losses — and losing to UCLA at home would be a bad loss.

Florida at Georgia
The Gators’ struggles on the road appear to be a thing of the past. Georgia will need to shoot very well to keep this one close.

NC State at Clemson
The Wolfpack are in desperate need of some good wins away from home. Clemson is always a tough out at Littlejohn Coliseum. This is a huge game for NC State.

Rutgers at Seton Hall
Seton Hall solidified its NCAA Tournament resume with a convincing win over Georgetown. This weekend, the Hall will be looking to complete the season sweep vs. in-state rival Rutgers.

Penn at Harvard
With home dates vs. Princeton (Friday night) and Penn, this is a huge week for Harvard, which is closing in on its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1946.

North Carolina at Virginia
Virginia’s NCAA Tournament résumé is solid; the Cavs have an opportunity to improve their seed with a win over North Carolina.

Missouri at Kansas
It doesn’t get any better than this: Two hated rivals meeting for the final time (we think) in one of the great settings in college basketball with a conference title on the line.

Memphis at Marshall
Memphis is still in good shape, but the Tigers took a step back with a loss at home to UTEP over the weekend. Marshall is good enough to win this game.

Belmont at Mercer
This regular-season finale in the A-Sun figures to be a preview of the league tournament title game, which will played on Mercer’s home floor one week later.

Purdue at Michigan
This is far from a must-win for Purdue, but the Boilermakers will greatly enhance their at-large chances with a win in Ann Arbor.

Mississippi State at Alabama
Mississippi State has lost four straight to dip under .500 in the SEC. The Bulldogs’ RPI is 60, and they are ranked 78th in KenPom. They could really use a win in Tuscaloosa.

Syracuse at Connecticut
The defending national champs stopped the bleeding with the win at Villanova on Monday, but we’re not quite ready to say the Huskies’ ship has been righted.

Colorado State at San Diego State
The Rams are feeling pretty good about themselves after beating New Mexico at home earlier this week. If they can steal a win at San Diego, it will be time to seriously consider them for an at-large invite.

Saint Mary’s at San Francisco
The Gaels are struggling at the wrong time of the year. San Francisco has been tough at home down the stretch. The Dons lost by one to BYU then bounced back to beat Gonzaga.

Sunday, Feb. 26

Cincinnati at South Florida
South Florida has already secured its first-ever winning season in Big East play. Now, the Bulls are focused on beefing up their at-large profile.

Indiana at Minnesota
With wins over Kentucky and Ohio State, the Hoosiers are in no danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. But Tom Crean would like to see his team play better away from home.

Pittsburgh at Louisville
Barring a miracle run in the Big East Tournament, Pittsburgh will miss the NCAAs for the first time since 2001.

Wisconsin at Ohio State
The Buckeyes won ugly in Madison, 58–52, earlier this month. They’d love to open things up and get this game in the 70s.

Florida State at Miami (Fla.)
This is huge game for both teams. The Noles are still in the hunt for the ACC title, while the Canes need another quality win on their résumé.

Iowa at Illinois
Illinois has wins over two top-five teams (Ohio State, Michigan State), but the Fighting Illini have played their way off the bubble (on the wrong side) with an epic late-season collapse.
  

Teaser:
<p> Here's a look at the top games on the college basketball schedule this weekend.&nbsp;</p>
Post date: Thursday, February 23, 2012 - 15:55
All taxonomy terms: College Basketball
Path: /college-basketball/ncaa-tournament-predicting-field
Body:

By Mitch Light

Selection Sunday is just over three weeks away. Here's a conference-by-conference projection at the NCAA Tournament's Field of 68.

ACC (6)
In:
Duke Florida State, Miami, North Carolina NC State, Virginia
Worth a mention: None
Notes: Six of NC State’s eight losses have come against teams ranked in the top 40 of the RPI and top 30 of KenPom’s ratings. The Pack also have two wins away from home against teams in this week’s projected field, vs. Texas and at Miami. They could have all but wrapped up a bid last night but could not hold a 20-point lead in the second half at Duke. The Hurricanes have only one good win — but it was very good, at Duke. They also have no bad losses.

American East (1)
In:
Vermont

A-10 (3)
In:
Saint Louis, Temple, Xavier
Worth a mention: Dayton, Saint Joseph’s, UMass
Notes: Xavier continues to be one of the most difficult teams to evaluate. The Musketeers’ best win was at Vanderbilt, but that was in November when the Commodores were playing without Festus Ezeli. They have lost their last four games vs. top-100 RPI teams. Ultimately, this team likely will do just enough to get in. Dayton has three top-35 RPI wins, but also had two losses to teams ranked in the 200s. The Flyers have seven top-100 RPI wins — a solid number for a bubble team.

A-Sun (1)
In:
Belmont

Big 12 (6)
In:
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas
Worth a mention: None
Notes: Five of Texas’ nine wins have come against North Carolina, Kansas, Baylor and Missouri (twice). The only thing close to a bad loss for the Horns was a neutral-court two-OT setback vs. Oregon State. They have a win over Temple on their résumé, too. Iowa State doesn’t have a top-100 win away from home, but they have dates at Kansas State and Missouri looming.

Big East (9)
In:
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Syracuse, West Virginia
Worth a mention: Pittsburgh, South Florida
Notes: Cincinnati is a tough case. Most doubters will point to an RPI of 93, which is admittedly very high, but that is a product of a very soft non-conference schedule that included nine games vs. teams ranked 200 or worse in the RPI. Keep in mind that the Bearcats are ranked No. 43 by KenPom and have three top 100 wins away from home. Seton Hall is back in the field after winning three straight games. The Pirates will be in great shape if they win at Cincinnati this weekend. Pittsburgh is on life support. South Florida has a nice Big East record (9–4) but only one top-75 win (vs. Seton Hall, at home).

Big Sky (1)
In:
Weber State

Big South (1)
In:
UNC-Asheville

Big Ten (9)
In:
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Worth a mention: None
Notes: It was very difficult to put Illinois, which has lost four straight and seven of eight, into the field, but the Illini have two wins vs. top-10 teams and three vs. top-20 teams. No bubble team can come close to that. So, for the time being, Illinois is still alive. Northwestern’s ongoing quest for its first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance took a hit with a loss at Indiana on Wednesday night, but there is really no shame in losing in Bloomington. It was more of missed opportunity than a bad loss. Minnesota’s profile is shaky, but the Gophers have done just enough to sneak in — for now. Their win at Indiana on Jan. 12 is by far their top accomplishment.

Colonial (1)
In:
Drexel
Worth a mention: George Mason, VCU
Notes: George Mason boasts a gaudy 14–2 mark in the CAA but has no wins vs. top 60 RPI teams. Its best wins are at home against Bucknell and VCU. The Rams have played a good schedule but failed to beat any of the good teams on their slate.

C-USA (2)
In:
Memphis, Southern Miss
Worth a mention: UCF
Notes: The Knights are close, thanks to wins vs. Memphis and UConn (on a neutral court). Plus, four of their seven losses have come against teams ranked in the top 35. The RPI (55) likes this team more than KenPom (89).

Horizon (1)
In:
Valparaiso

Ivy (1)
In:
Harvard

MAAC (1)
In:
Iona

MAC (1)
In:
Akron

MEAC (1)
In:
Norfolk State

MVC (2)
In:
Creighton, Wichita State

MWC (3)
In:
New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV
Worth a mention: Colorado State
Notes: New Mexico picked up a huge win on Wednesday night, knocking off San Diego State on the road. Colorado State has a solid RPI (33) but is No. 109 in KenPom and doesn’t have a win away from home vs. a team ranked in the top 175 of the RPI.

Northeast (1)
In:
Long Island

OVC (1)
In:
Murray State

Pac 12 (1)
In:
California
Worth a mention: Arizona, Washington
Notes: I tried to find a reason to include either Arizona or Washington. Couldn’t find one — for either team. Washington’s best win is at Arizona. Arizona’s only top-70 win is at Cal. Both teams have the talent to play in the NCAA Tournament, but for now they both lack the résumé.

Patriot (1)
In:
Bucknell

SEC (5)
In:
Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Worth a mention: Ole Miss, Tennessee
Notes: Alabama is an interesting case. The Crimson Tide are trending in the wrong direction, but they haven’t been playing with a complete roster. Now, how will the Selection Committee treat self-inflicted wounds (suspensions)? Not quite sure. If the Tide get all of their parts back, they are more than good enough to secure a spot in the next few weeks. Tennessee has a ton of work to do — the Vols RPI is 107 and they are 66 in Ken Pom — but gets on this list after winning four straight. Ole Miss missed an opportunity Thursday night against Vanderbilt, losing badly at home to the Commodores.

Southern (1)
In:
Davidson

Southland (1)
In:
UT-Arlington

Summit (1)
In:
Oral Roberts

Sun Belt (1)
In:
Middle Tennessee

SWAC (1)
In:
Mississippi Valley State

WAC (1)
In:
Nevada

WCC (3)
In:
BYU, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Notes: BYU has solid numbers (31 KenPom/45 RPI) and two wins vs. teams projected to make the field, Gonzaga and Nevada. Three of the Cougars’ four remaining games are against teams ranked 150 or worse. They need to win them all.
 

Teaser:
<p> Athlon Sports predicts the Field of 68 with just over three weeks remaining until Selection Sunday.</p>
Post date: Thursday, February 16, 2012 - 22:13
All taxonomy terms: College Football
Path: /college-football/college-football-bowl-predictions-part-2
Body:

By Mitch Light

Champs Sports Bowl — Florida State vs. Notre Dame
These two tradition-rich programs were among the bigger disappointments in 2011. Florida State had significant injuries (most notably to quarterback E.J. Manuel), while Notre Dame’s biggest issue was its inability to protect the football. The Irish ranked 116th in the nation in turnover margin (-1.08 per game).
Notre Dame 31, Florida State 30

Alamo Bowl — Washington vs. Baylor
This figures to be one of the more entertaining games of the bowl season. Both quarterbacks — Baylor’s Robert Griffin III and Washington’s Keith Price — are very talented and both defenses are suspect.
Baylor 41, Washington 34

Armed Forces Bowl — BYU vs. Tulsa
BYU won nine games but only beat one team (Utah State) that currently has a winning record. All of Tulsa’s four losses came to teams that were ranked in the top 10 at one point — Oklahoma, O-State, Boise State, Houston.
Tulsa 30, BYU 20

Pinstripe Bowl — Rutgers vs. Iowa State
Iowa State is the only team in the nation that played 11 BCS conference teams in the regular season. The Cyclones went 5–6 in those 11 games, with two of the wins coming in overtime, vs. Iowa and Oklahoma State.
Rutgers 24, Iowa State 20

Music City Bowl — Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State
It’s dangerous to put too much stock in one game, but it’s hard to believe that a Wake Forest team that was so thoroughly dominated at home by Vanderbilt, which went 2–6 in the SEC, will have too much success against another 2–6 SEC team, Mississippi State.
Mississippi State 27, Wake Forest 17

Insight Bowl — Iowa vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops will be coaching against his alma mater for the first time. His team will be more talented; just not sure how motivated the Sooners will be after their late-season struggles.
Oklahoma 28, Iowa 24

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas — Texas A&M vs. Northwestern
Texas A&M is likely the most talented 6–6 team in the nation. The Aggies lost two games in OT and three others by three points or less. Northwestern can be dangerous on offense, but the Cats’ defense will have problems with the A&M attack.
Texas A&M 38, Northwestern 24

Sun Bowl — Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Georgia Tech is 0–3 in bowl games under Paul Johnson and has scored a total of 24 points in those three losses. There’s pressure on the ’11 Jackets to prove that the option attack can be successful when the opponent has a month to prepare.
Georgia Tech 24, Utah 23

Liberty Bowl — Vanderbilt vs. Cincinnati
This game features two of the most underrated tailbacks in the nation, Vanderbilt’s Zac Stacy (1,136 yards on an SEC-best 6.2-yard average) and Cincinnati’s Isaiah Pead (1,110 yards).
Vanderbilt 27, Cincinnati 23

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl — Illinois vs. UCLA
These two teams have a combined 13 losses and both head coaches have been fired. This is why some people believe there are too many bowls.
UCLA 24, Illinois 17

Chick-fil-A Bowl — Virginia vs. Auburn
Auburn will take the field without Gus Malzahn calling the plays for the first time since 2008. Maybe it’s not as big of a loss as we think: The Tigers scored 17 points or less in six of their eight SEC games and currently rank 104th in the nation in total offense.
Virginia 21, Auburn 17

TicketCity Bowl — Houston vs. Penn State
Penn State has not played a Conference USA team since it hosted Southern Miss in November 2001. The Nittany Lions won that game, 38–20, and should win this one as well due to their outstanding play on defense.
Penn State 31, Houston 20

Capital One Bowl — Nebraska vs. South Carolina
South Carolina is flying under the national radar — pretty surprising for a Steve Spurrier team — but the Gamecocks have won 10 games and bring the nation’s fourth-ranked defense to Orlando. This should be an entertaining matchup.
South Carolina 17, Nebraska 13

Outback Bowl — Michigan State vs. Georgia
Georgia won 10 games this season, but has only defeated two teams with a winning record — Auburn (7–5) and Georgia Tech (8–4). Michigan State is known for its defense, but the Spartans averaged 38.6 points in their last five games.
Georgia 28, Michigan State 20

Gator Bowl — Florida vs. Ohio State
It’s the Urban Meyer Bowl. Florida (6–6 overall) needs to win this game to avoid its first losing season since 1979, when Charley Pell’s first Gator team went 0–10–1. Ohio State, also 6–6, hasn’t had a losing season since 1988.
Ohio State 20, Florida 16

GoDaddy.com Bowl — Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois
Times are good at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves went 8–0 in the Sun Belt Conference and somehow convinced Gus Malzahn to take over as the head coach after Hugh Freeze bolted for Ole Miss after one season.
Arkansas State 37, Northern Illinois 34

BBVA Compass Bowl — Pittsburgh vs. SMU
Times are tough at Pittsburgh. The Panthers are returning to the BBVA Compass Bowl — despite their objections — and they are doing so without a head coach. Todd Graham left after only one season to take over at Arizona State, forcing to Pitt to undergo its third coaching search in the past 12 months.
SMU 28, Pittsburgh 24

Cotton Bowl — Kansas State vs. Arkansas
Arkansas averaged 41.8 points in its 10 wins and 15.5 points in its two losses — at Alabama and at LSU, ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the nation in total defense and scoring defense. Kansas State ranks 74th in total defense and 71st in scoring defense.
Arkansas 37, Kansas State 23

Rose Bowl — Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Two of the nation’s best and most-balanced offenses — both Wisconsin and Oregon average over 200 yards per game rushing and passing — will be on display at the Rose Bowl. This game features some serious star power, as well, with each team featuring an All-America-caliber running back (UW’s Montee Ball and UO’s LaMichael James) and dynamic playmakers at the quarterback position (Russell Wilson and Darron Thomas).
Oregon 34, Wisconsin 31

Sugar Bowl — Virginia Tech vs. Michigan
Brady Hoke did a tremendous job in his first season at Michigan. On the surface, a three-game improvement in the win column (both overall and in the league) is impressive, but when you dive into the numbers you really get an indication of how much better Michigan was in 2011. Last year, the Wolverines were outgained by an average of 1.4 yards per game in Big Ten play. In ’11, they were statistically dominant in the league, outgaining their opponents by an average of 130.7 yards per game. That is a staggering improvement in one season.
Michigan 27, Virginia Tech 21

Orange Bowl — Clemson vs. West Virginia
Clemson, which won an ACC title for the first time since 1991, averaged 39.4 points in its 10 wins and 14.3 points in its four losses. The Tigers rebounded from a late-season swoon — they lost three of the final four regular-season games — and pounded Virginia Tech, 38–10, in the ACC Championship Game. This is an explosive offensive team that can be very difficult to stop once it gets rolling.
Clemson 38, West Virginia 20

Fiesta Bowl — Oklahoma State vs. Stanford
Oklahoma State will react in one of two ways: The Cowboys, feeling snubbed by the BCS, play with a chip on their shoulder to prove that they, not Alabama, deserved a shot at LSU in the national title game. Or, the Pokes, feeling jilted by the BCS, are lethargic and fail to recapture the magic that made them one of the most entertaining teams throughout the 2011 season. My guess: The former.
Oklahoma State 34, Stanford 27

BCS National Championship — LSU vs. Alabama
The two SEC West superpowers meet in a winner-take-all rematch for the national title. LSU won the first fight, 9–6 in overtime in Tuscaloosa, but the Tigers weren’t necessarily the better team. Yes, they won the game, but the better team doesn’t always win. Alabama hasn’t faced quite as difficult of a schedule as LSU, but the Crimson Tide’s numbers on defense are scary good; they are giving up less than 200 yards per game (60 yards fewer than the No. 2 team, LSU) and only 3.4 yards per play. The offense has been more than good enough to win every game that wasn’t against LSU and did a decent job moving the ball against the Tigers (295 total yards) in its only loss.
Alabama 20, LSU 17

Teaser:
<p> Mitch Light breaks down the bowl games, starting with Notre Dame vs. Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl.</p>
Post date: Thursday, December 29, 2011 - 02:22
Path: /college-football/college-football-bowl-predictions-part-1
Body:

By Mitch Light

New Mexico Bowl — Temple vs. Wyoming
For the second time in three seasons, Wyoming is in a bowl game with a true freshman at quarterback. Two years ago, Austyn Carta-Samuels guided the Cowboys to a win over Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl. With Carta-Samuels gone — he transferred to Vanderbilt in the offseason — coach Dave Christensen handed the offense to Brett Smith, who ranks second in the Mountain West in total offense and fourth in passing efficiency. The key for the Cowboys, however, will be on defense. They rank 115th in the nation in stopping the run — a huge concern with Temple’s potent rushing attack on the horizon.
Temple 24, Wyoming 21

Idaho Potato Bowl — Utah State vs. Ohio
Utah State opened up the season with a 42–38 loss at Auburn, the defending national champs. The Aggies went on to lose four of their next six games — all by 10 points or less — before ending the season on a five-game winning streak. Ohio must regroup after blowing a 20–0 lead in the second half to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. Three of the Bobcats’ four losses came by three points or less. These are two solid teams.
Utah State 27, Ohio 24

New Orleans Bowl — UL-Lafayette vs. San Diego State
Mark Hudspeth did a great job in his first year at UL-Lafayette, guiding the Ragin’ Cajuns to an 8–4 overall record and their first bowl game in the FBS ranks. San Diego State is making back-to-back postseason appearances for the first time in school history. The Aztecs will lean heavily on underrated tailback Ronnie Hillman, who ranks third nationally in rushing (138.0 ypg).
San Diego State 34, UL-Lafayette 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl — FIU vs. Marshall
Marshall, at 5–3, had its first winning record in seven seasons in Conference USA. The Herd got it done with a true freshman (Rakeem Cato) taking the majority of the snaps at quarterback. FIU failed to repeat at Sun Belt champs, but the Golden Panthers still won eight games in the regular season, including their final three.
Marshall 20, FIU 14

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas — Arizona State vs. Boise State
Boise State, 11–1 overall, was relegated to the MAACO Bowl for the second straight season after getting snubbed in the BCS bowl selection process. This team deserves better. Arizona State, on the other hand, is fortunate to still be playing. The Sun Devils lost their final four games, including the last two at home, to finish at 6–6.
Boise State 37, Arizona State 21

Poinsettia Bowl — Louisiana Tech vs. TCU
Louisiana Tech is one of the more undervalued teams in the nation. The Bulldogs went 8–4 overall and won their final seven games. They lost by two points at Southern Miss (11–2), by one point to Houston (12–1) and by six, in overtime, at Mississippi State. TCU is obviously very good — the Frogs won at Boise State — but Louisiana Tech, a double-digit underdog, is capable of winning this game.
Louisiana Tech 24, TCU 21

Hawaii Bowl — Nevada vs. Southern Miss
Southern Miss got shipped off to Hawaii despite winning the Conference USA Championship Game. It’s a fun trip for the players, but too far for the majority of the fans, many of whom would have made the relatively short trip to the Liberty Bowl in Memphis. Nevada once again brings a high-powered attack to the table; the Wolf Pack have averaged over 500 yards per game in each of the past four seasons.
Southern Miss 41, Nevada 37

Independence Bowl — Missouri vs. North Carolina
SEC-bound Missouri salvaged what had been a disappointing season by winning its final three games, including a 17–5 decision over Texas and a 24–10 win over Kansas in the final Border War showdown for the foreseeable future. North Carolina struggled down the stretch, not surprising for a team playing with an interim head coach (Everett Withers) who was never expected to get the job on a full-time basis.
Missouri 28, North Carolina 17

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl — Western Michigan vs. Purdue
Western Michigan boasts one of the nation’s most potent pass-catch duos in Alex Carder and Jordan White. The Broncos rank eighth in the nation in passing (328.8 ypg) and White leads all receivers nationally with 10.6 receptions per game. WMU will have to score a bunch of points, because its defense could have trouble with Purdue.
Purdue 41, Western Michigan 33

Belk Bowl — Louisville vs. NC State
Picked by most to finish near the bottom of the Big East in 2011, Louisville was the surprise of the league, tying for the title with West Virginia and Cincinnati. And with talented true freshman Teddy Bridgewater emerging at quarterback, the future is bright for the Cards. At NC State, Tom O’Brien likely saved his job by winning three of his final four games, most notably a 13–0 shutout vs. rival North Carolina.
Louisville 23, NC State 17

Military Bowl — Toledo vs. Air Force
Toledo averaged 52.8 points in its last six games, but managed to only go 5–1 in that stretch. The Rockets lost to Northern Illinois, 63–60, at home in a game that ultimately cost them the MAC West title. Air Force was a bit of a disappointment, finishing in fifth place in the Mountain West with a 3–4 league record.
Toledo 41, Air Force 27

Holiday Bowl — California vs. Texas
Texas limped to the finish line, losing three of its final four games. Amazingly, the Longhorns are 6–11 in the Big 12 over the last two seasons. Cal played well late, winning three of its last four, with the only loss coming by three points at Stanford.
California 27, Texas 17
 

Teaser:
<p> Mitch Light takes a look at the first round of bowl games.</p>
Post date: Friday, December 16, 2011 - 07:54
Path: /college-football/college-football-predictions-every-game-week-14
Body:

By Mitch Light

Friday

No. 67 Ohio vs. No. 57 Northern Illinois (MAC Championship Game)

Northern Illinois, winner of seven straight, brings an explosive offense to Ford Field in Detroit. NIU ranks ninth in the nation in total offense and has scored 40 points or more in nine of its 12 games. Ohio, too, can score points, but Frank Solich’s club leans on its defense. The Bobcats allowed only 350.7 yards and 22.0 points per game.
Northern Illinois 34, Ohio 21

No. 54 UCLA at Oregon (ACC Championship Game)
This isn’t what Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott had in mind when the league expanded to 12 teams to set up a conference championship game. Oregon is a 31-point favorite over a UCLA team that went 6–6 overall and is fresh off a humbling 50–0 loss to USC. Oh, and the Bruins have fired their coach.
Oregon 48, UCLA 14

Saturday, Dec. 3

No. 1 LSU vs. No. 15 Georgia (SEC Championship Game)
LSU has all but locked up a spot in the national title game, but the Tigers still have plenty to play for — a coveted SEC championship. Les Miles’ club proved once again why it’s deserving of the No. 1 spot in the polls with a thorough, 41–17, victory over Arkansas on Friday.
LSU 34, Georgia 17

No. 7 Oklahoma at No. 3 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is ranked No. 3 in the BCS, but it appears as though the Pokes are a long shot to play in the national title game — even with a convincing win over Oklahoma coupled with an LSU loss to Georgia in the SEC title game.
Oklahoma State 41, Oklahoma 33

No. 6 Virginia Tech vs. No 25 Clemson (Pac-12 Championship Game)
Clemson established itself as a legitimate national title contender — at the time — with a dominating 23–3 win at Virginia Tech back on Oct. 1. Times have changed. The Tigers are now 9–3, having lost three of their last four games, each by 14 points or more.
Virginia Tech 34, Clemson 24

No. 10 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 Michigan State (Big Ten Championship Game)
The Badgers will have an opportunity to avenge their “Hail Mary” loss when they face Michigan State in the first-ever Big Ten Championship Game. The Spartans have had a fine season — they won 10 games for the second year in a row — but Wisconsin is the best team in the Big Ten. The Badgers have been mauling the opposition with a devastating rushing attack and an efficient passing game.
Wisconsin 27, Michigan State 20

No. 42 Iowa State at No. 12 Kansas State
Kansas State still has a shot at its first BCS bowl since 2004. Here’s what needs to happen: The Wildcats need to beat Iowa State (likely); Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma (very possible); and Michigan, which doesn’t play, needs to remain outside the top 14 of the BCS standings (it is No. 16 now). Not bad for a team that was predicted by most — including Athlon Sports — to finish ninth in the Big 12.
Kansas State 31, Iowa State 17

No. 115 New Mexico at No. 13 Boise State
This is the final game before the Bob Davie era begins at New Mexico. It will be a major surprise if the margin of victory for Boise State is less than 40 points.
Boise State 51, New Mexico 0

No. 29 Texas at No. 16 Baylor
Texas somehow won at Texas A&M over the weekend despite gaining only 237 yards of offense. Yards and points should be easier to come by in Waco, but the Horns might not be good enough offensively to outscore the Bears.
Baylor 30, Texas 27

No. 116 UNLV at No. 17 TCU
It’s TCU’s final game as a member of the Mountain West. It will not be close.
TCU 47, UNLV 10

No. 38 Southern Miss at No. 18 Houston (C-USA Championship Game)
Houston is one win away from its first Conference USA title since 2006 and its first-ever spot in a BCS bowl. With a win over Southern Miss, the Cougars are likely headed to the Sugar Bowl to face Michigan. But first things first: Southern Miss is a very good team that won 10 games in the regular season, highlighted by a 30–24 win at Virginia in September.
Houston 47, Southern Miss 31

No. 66 Connecticut at No. 32 Cincinnati
Connecticut needs to win to become bowl-eligible in the first season of the Paul Pasqualoni era. Cincinnati needs to win to grab a share of the Big East title. Cincinnati is the better team.
Cincinnati 31, Connecticut 20

No. 82 Syracuse at No. 53 Pittsburgh
It’s been a disappointing third season for Doug Marrone at his alma mater, but the Orange (5–6 overall, 1–6 Big East) can still become bowl-eligible with a win at Pittsburgh. The Panthers, too, need to win to extend their season. Not sure it will be a great game, but there is a lot at stake for both teams.
Pittsburgh 27, Syracuse 14

No. 56 BYU at No. 78 Hawaii
The Cougars haven’t been overly impressive, but they’ve still managed to win eight games — so far — in their first season as an Independent. Usually, a trip to Hawaii is no easy task, but the Warriors are struggling (despite beating Tulane last week).
BYU 41, Hawaii 30

No. 111 Troy at No. 62 Arkansas State
Arkansas State is one away from wrapping up a perfect 8–0 mark in the Sun Belt Conference. Hugh Freeze has done a tremendous job in a very short time in Jonesboro.
Arkansas State 33, Troy 14

No. 63 Wyoming at No. 110 Colorado State
Wyoming has very quietly enjoyed a solid 2011 season. The Cowboys are 7–4 overall and 4–2 in the MWC. With a win over rival Colorado State — the two schools are only 65 miles apart — Wyoming will secure a third-place finish in the league standings.
Wyoming 34, Colorado State 13

No. 102 Fresno State at No. 64 San Diego State
Fresno State has a losing record in the WAC for the first time in the 15-year Pat Hill era. And it’s only the second time in the past 13 years that the Bulldogs will not be playing in a bowl game.
San Diego State 33, Fresno State 15

No. 71 Utah State at No. 101 New Mexico State
Utah State recovered from a slow start — which included several painfully close losses — to win four straight games. The Aggies (of USU, not NMSU) are headed to a bowl game (the Idaho Potato Bowl) for the first time since 1997.
Utah State 30, New Mexico State 10

No. 112 Idaho at No. 72 Nevada
Nevada proved there is life after Colin Kaepernick, averaging over 500 yards of offense for the fourth straight season. Idaho, on the other hand, has struggled after the graduation of its standout quarterback, Nathan Enderle.
Nevada 44, Idaho 14

No. 113 Middle Tennessee at No. 98 North Texas
It’s been a nightmare season for Middle Tennessee, which is 2–9 overall with wins over two of the worst FBS teams in the nation — Memphis and FAU.
North Texas 21, Middle Tennessee 17

No. 107 UL-Monroe at No. 117 Florida Atlantic
Mercifully, Howard Schnellenberger’s final season in coaching will not end with an 0–12 record. The Owls finally broke through last week with a 38–35 win over UAB. They will, however, likely send their coach out with a 1–11 mark.
UL-Monroe 28, Florida Atlantic 10

Last week — 40-12
Season — 526–139

Teaser:
<p> It's Championship Week in College Football</p>
Post date: Friday, December 2, 2011 - 07:00
All taxonomy terms: ACC, College Football, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Big East
Path: /college-football/college-football-predictions-10-key-games-week-14
Body:

By Mitch Light (@AthlonMitch)

Here are previews and predictions for the 10 best college football games this weekend.

Wisconsin (-9) vs. Michigan State (Big Ten Championship Game)
The Badgers will have an opportunity to avenge their “Hail Mary” loss when they face Michigan State in the first-ever Big Ten Championship Game. The Spartans have had a fine season — they won 10 games for the second year in a row — but Wisconsin is the best team in the Big Ten. The Badgers have been mauling the opposition with a devastating rushing attack and an efficient passing game. Junior tailback Montee Ball ranks third in the nation in rushing (135.2 ypg) and has topped the 100-yard mark in all but one Big Ten game. Michigan State is good. Wisconsin is better.
Wisconsin 27, Michigan State 20

LSU (-13.5) vs. Georgia (SEC Championship Game)
LSU has all but locked up a spot in the national title game, but the Tigers still have plenty to play for — a coveted SEC championship. Les Miles’ club proved once again why it’s deserving of the No. 1 spot in the polls with a thorough, 41–17, victory over Arkansas on Friday. The LSU rushing attack churned out 286 yards on 46 attempts and simply wore down the Razorback defense in the second half. Georgia’s defensive numbers are outstanding, but keep in mind that the Bulldogs did not play Alabama, LSU or Arkansas in the regular season. Georgia did not beat another SEC team that had a winning record in league play.
LSU 34, Georgia 17

UCLA (+31) at Oregon (Fri) (Pac-12 Championship Game)
This isn’t what Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott had in mind when the league expanded to 12 teams to set up a conference championship game. Oregon is a 31-point favorite over a UCLA team that went 6–6 overall and is fresh off a humbling 50–0 loss to USC. The Trojans were obviously the best team in the Pac-12 South, but are banned from the postseason due to NCAA sanctions. That leaves a very mediocre UCLA team — with a coach (Rick Neuheisel) who has been fired — as the representative from the South. This will be ugly.
Oregon 48, UCLA 14

Virginia Tech (-7) vs. Clemson (ACC Championship Game)
Clemson established itself as a legitimate national title contender — at the time — with a dominating 23–3 win at Virginia Tech back on Oct. 1. Times have changed. The Tigers are now 9–3, having lost three of their last four games, each by 14 points or more. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has won seven straight since that home loss to Clemson and is coming off an impressive 38–0 win at Virginia. Look for David Wilson and Co. to have their way against a Clemson defense that has given up an average of 410.7 yards in its last six games.
Virginia Tech 34, Clemson 24

Texas (+2.5) at Baylor
No Robert Griffin III? No problem for the Baylor Bears — at least for one half against a bad Texas Tech defense. With their star quarterback sidelined with a concussion, the Bears outscored Texas Tech 35–14 in the final two quarters of a 66–42 win at Cowboys Stadium. Griffin III should be back this week, and Baylor will need him at his best against a very good Texas defense. The Horns somehow won at Texas A&M over the weekend despite gaining only 237 yards of offense. Yards and points should be easier to come by in Waco, but Texas might not be good enough offensively to outscore the Bears.
Baylor 30, Texas 27

Oklahoma (+3) at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is ranked No. 3 in the BCS, but it appears as though the Pokes are a long shot to play in the national title game — even with a convincing win over Oklahoma coupled with an LSU loss to Georgia in the SEC title game. O-State would still welcome a Big 12 championship and a first-ever appearance in a BCS bowl, but the Cowboys will likely never get over the stunning loss to Iowa State that ultimately cost them a shot at a title. Oklahoma will no doubt provide a stiff challenge, but the Pokes are healthier and have the advantage of playing at home.
Oklahoma State 41, Oklahoma 33

Southern Miss (+12.5) at Houston
(C-USA Championship Game)
Houston is one win away from its first Conference USA title since 2006 and its first-ever spot in a BCS bowl. With a win over Southern Miss, the Cougars are likely headed to the Sugar Bowl to face Michigan. But first things first: Southern Miss is a very good team that won 10 games in the regular season, highlighted by a 30–24 win at Virginia in September. The Golden Eagles are potent on offense — 15th in the nation in total offense and scoring offense — but have had trouble at times on defense. And that is a bad sign with Houston on deck.
Houston 47, Southern Miss 31

Ohio (-3.5) vs. Northern Illinois (Fri) (MAC Championship Game)
Both of these schools are making their third appearance in the MAC title game in the past seven seasons. Ohio lost to Central Michigan in 2006 and ’09, while NIU lost to Akron in 2005 and Miami (Ohio) in ’10. The Huskies, winners of seven straight, bring an explosive offense to Ford Field in Detroit. NIU ranks ninth in the nation in total offense and has scored 40 points or more in nine of its 12 games. Ohio, too, can score points, but Frank Solich’s club leans on its defense. The Bobcats allowed only 350.7 yards and 22.0 points per game.
Northern Illinois 34, Ohio 21

Iowa State (+10.5) at Kansas State
Kansas State still has a shot at its first BCS bowl since 2004. Here’s what needs to happen: The Wildcats need to beat Iowa State (likely); Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma (very possible); and Michigan, which doesn’t play, needs to remain outside the top 14 of the BCS standings (it is No. 16 now). Not bad for a team that was predicted by most — including Athlon Sports — to finish ninth in the Big 12. Iowa Sate, with a win, can finish 4–5 and in a tie for sixth with Texas A&M and Texas — if Baylor defeats the Longhorns.
Kansas State 31, Iowa State 17

West Virginia (-1.5) at South Florida (Thu)
The league set this up as a potential Big East championship game. Didn’t work out. West Virginia, at 4–2 in the league, did its part, but South Florida is tied with Syracuse at the bottom of the standings with a 1–5 record. West Virginia will earn the league’s automatic bid to a BCS bowl with a win over South Florida coupled with a Cincinnati win over Connecticut. That would leave WVU, Cincinnati and Louisville tied at 5–2, and the Mountaineers, the highest ranked of the three in the BCS, would get the nod. However, if Cincinnati loses to Connecticut this week, that would create only a two-team tie, and Louisville would get the bid because it beat West Virginia earlier this season.
West Virginia 28, South Florida 14

Last week — 7-3 (3–7 vs. spread)
Season — 83–45 (62–66–2 vs. spread)

Teaser:
<p> Titles are on the line in all six BCS conferences</p>
Post date: Thursday, December 1, 2011 - 07:00
Path: /college-football/urban-meyer-will-win-big-ohio-state
Body:

By Mitch Light

You can mock Urban Meyer about his family-first statements. You can question his ability to handle the rigors — both physically and mentally — of coaching at Ohio State. You can cite the high number of arrests that have occurred under his watch. You can call him a hypocrite. But you have to admit that the guy is a great football coach.

Some of his doubters will insist that his outstanding record at Florida is simply a product of Tim Tebow’s greatness. That is ridiculous. Meyer has won at a high level at all three of his stops as a head coach, compiling an overall record of 104–23 and a 50–19 mark in league play.

In 2001, Meyer inherited a Bowling Green team that won two games and averaged 15.8 points the previous season. In his first year, the Falcons went 8–3 and doubled their scoring output to 30.2 points per game. The following season, in ’02, Bowling Green went 9–3 and averaged 40.8 points per game.

At Utah, he took over a program that had suffered two losing seasons in the previous two years, including a 5–6 mark in 2002, and went on to records of 10–2 and 11–0 (did not coach the bowl game) in his two seasons. His ’04 Utah team set a school record by averaging 45.3 points and became the first non-AQ school to earn a spot in a BCS bowl. The Utes also produced the top overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, quarterback Alex Smith.

Then, in 2005, Meyer began a six-year run at Florida that featured a 36–13 record in SEC play and two national championships. His teams won 13 games on three occasions, and he went 3–0 in BCS bowls. And in three of his six seasons, the Gators ranked first in the SEC in total offense.

His detractors will point to his final season at Florida — an 8–5 record in 2010 — but not every coach wins at a high level every season. That might be the only wart on what has been a near-flawless coaching record.

And I don’t buy the argument that it’s easy to win at Florida. In fact, history proves just the opposite. Meyer and Steve Spurrier are the only two coaches who have consistently competed for championships in Gainesville.

The bottom line: Meyer is one of the elite coaches in the game and is almost sure to win at a high level as the boss at Ohio State. I have no problem with those who question the way he goes about his business off the field, but it’s almost impossible to find fault with what he has done in the between the lines.

I’d be shocked if Ohio Sate is not competing for a national title in the very near future. He is the right coach at the right time.
 

Teaser:
<p> Urban Meyer's track record of success is impossible to ignore.</p>
Post date: Monday, November 28, 2011 - 14:20
All taxonomy terms: College Football
Path: /college-football/college-football-predictions-every-game-week-13
Body:

By Mitch Light (@AthlonMitch)

Here's a look at every game of the Week 13 college football schedule.

Friday

No. 3 Arkansas at No. 1 LSU
LSU is a big favorite at home, but the Tigers will be tested by Arkansas’ explosive offense. Keep in mind that West Virginia, the only other real quality passing team that LSU has played, rolled up 533 yards of offense (463 through the air) in Week 4. Arkansas’ defense was susceptible to the run earlier in the year but has tightened up in recent weeks. The Hogs will have to control LSU’s rushing attack to have a chance.
LSU 28, Arkansas 21

No. 43 Iowa at No. 22 Nebraska
Nebraska’s first trip to Michigan since 1962 didn’t go very well. The Huskers were torched for 45 points in a lopsided loss and can now finish no better than 5–3 in their first Big Ten season.
Nebraska 24, Iowa 21

No. 78 Boston College at No. 29 Miami (Fla.)
It’s been a difficult season for Boston College, but give the Eagles some credit: They are playing hard down the stretch. After getting ripped by Florida State, 38–7, on a Thursday night three weeks ago, they beat NC State, 14–10, and lost at Notre Dame, 16–14.
Miami (Fla.) 24, Boston College 14

No. 84 Colorado at No. 34 Utah
Utah has battled back to .500 in the Pac-12 after an 0–4 start and can actually still reach the league title game. Three things need to happen: The Utes need to beat Colorado (likely); UCLA needs to lose at USC (likely); and Arizona State needs to lose at home to Cal (possible).
Utah 31, Colorado 14

No. 55 Pittsburgh at No. 35 West Virginia
The Backyard Brawl is for more than just pride this year. Pitt and West Virginia are among five Big East teams with two league losses. The loser is likely done; the winner remains in the hunt for a BCS bowl.
West Virginia 30, Pittsburgh 21

No. 39 Louisville at No. 57 South Florida
Louisville has been one of the biggest surprises in the nation and is still in the hunt for the Big East’s automatic BCS bid. Winning at South Florida will be a challenge, but this team has already won at West Virginia and Connecticut.
Louisville 24, South Florida 21

No. 54 California at No. 50 Arizona State
Arizona State has lost three in a row and four of five yet will still head to the Pac-12 title game with a win over Cal coupled with a UCLA loss at USC.
Arizona State 30, Cal 28

No. 61 Toledo at No. 94 Ball State
Toledo needs to beat Ball State and have Northern Illinois lose at home to Eastern Michigan to advance to the MAC title game. The former is highly likely. The latter isn’t.
Toledo 41, Ball State 17

No. 104 Eastern Michigan at No. 67 Northern Illinois
The Huskies have won six straight in the league after losing the opener at Central Michigan. A win over the improved Eagles will put NIU in the MAC title game.
Northern Illinois 30, Eastern Michigan 14

No. 103 Kent State at No. 73 Temple
After a 1–6 start (with the lone win coming vs. South Alabama), Kent State has bounced back to win four straight and sits in a tie for second with Temple at 4–3 in the MAC East. The run will probably end this weekend, but it’s safe to say that Darrell Hazell’s first season at Kent is a success.
Temple 27, Kent State 13

No. 120 Akron at No. 87 Western Michigan
There are rumblings that this could be Rob Ianello’s final game as the boss at Akron. He is 2–21 in two seasons.
Western Michigan 41, Akron 10

No. 98 UTEP at No. 89 UCF
It’s been a rough season for UCF, the 2010 C-USA champs. The Knights are 4–7 overall and 2–5 in the league and have lost five of their past six games. UTEP needs a win to become bowl-eligible.
UCF 31, UTEP 30

No. 105 Bowling Green at No. 108 Buffalo
Bowling Green was 3–1 after winning at Miami (Ohio) in late September. The Falcons have won just once since, though it was over Temple.
Bowling Green 27, Buffalo 17

Saturday

No. 2 Alabama at No. 27 Auburn
The winner of the last two Iron Bowls has gone on to win the national championship. And thanks to the crazy developments of this past weekend, that streak could extend to three years. Alabama is now No. 2 in the BCS rankings and could be headed to a rematch with No. 1 LSU in the national title game.
Alabama 28, Auburn 17

No. 71 Oregon State at No. 5 Oregon
Oregon played its way out of the national title picture with a loss last week, but the Ducks still have plenty to play for. A win over the Beavers in the Civil War will sent UO to the Pac-12 title game, which will be played at Autzen Stadium.
Oregon 44, Oregon State 17

No. 23 Notre Dame at No. 6 Stanford
Andrew Luck, still a very strong contender for the Heisman Trophy, has now thrown at least one pick in four straight games, the longest such streak of his career. Nobody’s perfect.
Stanford 33, Notre Dame 28

No. 24 Virginia at No. 7 Virginia Tech
You might not have noticed, but the Virginia Cavaliers have won four straight games — including wins at Miami and Florida State — and can win the ACC Coastal Division with a win over Virginia Tech at home this weekend. I smell upset.
Virginia 27, Virginia Tech 21

No. 42 Iowa State at No. 8 Oklahoma
The two teams that have defeated Oklahoma have scored 41 points (Texas Tech) and 45 (Baylor) to do so. The Cyclones aren’t capable of such an outburst.
Oklahoma 33, Iowa State 16

No. 9 Michigan State at No. 45 Northwestern
The Spartans have already secured their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, but they have an opportunity to hit the 10-win mark in back-to-back seasons for the first time in school history.
Michigan State 31, Northwestern 23

No. 17 Penn State at No. 10 Wisconsin
When Wisconsin is playing well, which it has for most of the season, it is a very difficult team to defend. Penn State has been very good on defense this season, and the Nittany Lions will offer some resistance, but Wisconsin is too talented.
Wisconsin 24, Penn State 14

No. 47 UCLA at No. 11 USC
Remarkably, UCLA will head to the Pac-12 Championship Game with a win over its rivals from USC. That, however, isn’t likely to happen. The Trojans are the far more talented team and are playing with a ton of confidence.
USC 34, UCLA 16

No. 63 Wyoming at No. 13 Boise State
Wyoming has managed to record a 7–3 record through 10 games despite ranking 116th in the nation in stopping the run — considered to be one of the more important stats in football.
Boise State 41, Wyoming 17

No. 14 Georgia at No. 35 Georgia Tech
Georgia has won two in a row and nine of the past 10 in this series and has not lost in Atlanta (to Tech) since 1999. That streak should continue — though it won’t be easy.
Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 23

No. 15 Clemson at No. 16 South Carolina
This rivalry isn’t as celebrated as some of the other great in-state battles around the nation, but there is plenty of hate when Clemson and South Carolina get together. And this year, there is more at stake as it’s only the fifth time in 108 meetings that both teams have been ranked at the time of the game.
Clemson 31, South Carolina 27

No. 60 Texas Tech at No. 18 Baylor
The over-under on this game is 77.5, which seems a little low. Texas Tech has allowed an average of 47.5 points in its four-game losing streak. Expect another big game from RGII.
Baylor 47, Texas Tech 37

No. 20 Houston at No. 32 Tulsa
You can argue that the only difference between 11–0 Houston and 8–3 Tulsa is the difficulty of the two teams’ schedules. Tulsa’s three losses have come at Oklahoma, vs. Oklahoma State and at Boise State.
Houston 47, Tulsa 37

No. 30 Ohio State at No. 21 Michigan
Michigan is 9–2 overall and 5–2 in the Big Ten thanks in large part to the nation’s most improved defense. Last year, the Wolverines ranked 110th in the nation in total defense (450.7 ypg) and 108th in scoring defense (35.2 ppg). Through 11 games, the ’11 club ranks 14th in total defense (316.0 ypg) and eighth in scoring defense (16.2 ppg). Those numbers could get even better after facing an Ohio State offense that struggles mightily to throw the ball.
Michigan 24, Ohio State 10

No. 26 Missouri at No. 95 Kansas
This figures to be the last meeting between these two rivals for the foreseeable future. Kansas has said it has no interest in playing Missouri unless it’s a conference game. Unless KU joins the SEC (not happening) or MU returns to the Big 12 (not happening), these two schools will not be in the same conference.
Missouri 47, Kansas 10

No. 28 Florida State at No. 36 Florida
How the mighty have fallen. Once a can’t-miss game, the Florida vs. Florida State showdown is almost an afterthought on a busy holiday weekend of football. Neither team is ranked, and they are a combined 8–8 in their respective leagues — Florida 3–5 in the SEC and FSU 5–3 in the ACC.
Florida 17, Florida State 14

No. 72 Duke at No. 37 North Carolina
North Carolina has won 20 of the last 21 games in this Tobacco Road rivalry. Duke is decent, but there’s no reason to believe UNC’s dominance will end any time soon.
North Carolina 31, Duke 20

No. 52 Vanderbilt at No. 38 Wake Forest
Vanderbilt needs to win this game to become bowl-eligible in the first year of the James Franklin era. The Dores must regroup after an emotional overtime loss in Knoxville. This is a tough assignment.
Wake Forest 24, Vanderbilt 23

No. 40 Rutgers at No. 76 Connecticut
Rutgers is 8–3 and two of its three losses have come by two points — at North Carolina and at West Virginia. It’s accurate to say this team has exceeded expectations.
Rutgers 20, Connecticut 10

No. 41 Cincinnati at No. 77 Syracuse
The Munchie Legaux era got off to lackluster start at Cincinnati. The Bearcats managed only 225 yards of offense in a 20–3 loss at Rutgers. Anything is possible in the wacky Big East, but the Bearcats look like a team that really misses its starting quarterback.
Syracuse 31, Cincinnati 20

No. 117 Memphis at No. 44 Southern Miss
Southern Miss is fresh off a stunning loss to UAB that ended the Golden Eagles’ eight-game winning streak. A win over Memphis will put Larry Fedora’s club in the C-USA title game.
Southern Miss 38, Memphis 13

No. 66 Washington State at No. 46 Washington
The Huskies are coming off a troubling 38–21 loss at Oregon State. Nick Montana struggled in his first start, completing 11-of-21 for 79 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He was replaced by the banged up Keith Price, who will be back in the lineup this weekend.
Washington 33, Washington State 24

No. 90 Maryland at No. 48 NC State
NC State coach Tom O’Brien might have saved his job by sandwiching wins over North Carolina and Clemson around a loss to Boston College. He better not lose to Maryland, a team that is limping to the finish line on a seven-game losing streak.
NC State 28, Maryland 10

No. 49 Illinois at No. 85 Minnesota
Illinois has lost five straight games after starting the season with a 6–0 mark. Losing at Minnesota would not help Ron Zook remain employed.
Illinois 20, Minnesota 17

No. 51 Tennessee at No. 86 Kentucky
Tennessee needs to beat Kentucky — for the 27th straight time — to become bowl-eligible. A win, which is highly likely, will send the Vols to the Liberty Bowl or Music City Bowl.
Tennessee 27, Kentucky 10

No. 96 Ole Miss at No. 53 Mississippi State
Mississippi State has a 1–6 record in the SEC yet is a 17-point favorite over the Rebels. That should tell you all you need to know about Ole Miss’ struggles this season.
Mississippi State 21, Ole Miss 0

No. 56 Purdue at No. 100 Indiana
Indiana, Akron and Florida Atlantic remain the only three teams without a win over an FBS team. It’s been a nightmare first season for Kevin Wilson.
Purdue 27, Indiana 17

No. 101 New Mexico State at No. 59 Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is a home win vs. New Mexico State away from clinching the school’s first conference title since 2001. The Bulldogs might have to share the WAC crown with Nevada, but Tech beat the Pack head to head.
Louisiana Tech 31, New Mexico State 21

No. 64 Nevada at No. 74 Utah State
After losing its first three games by a combined eight points (and its next two by 10 and seven points, respectively), Utah State is showing it knows how to win close games late in the season. The Aggies evened their record with an overtime win at Idaho last week — their third straight win by seven points or less.
Utah State 38, Nevada 35

No. 65 San Diego State at No. 116 UNLV
UNLV has been pretty bad most of the season, but the Rebels did manage to beat Hawaii and Colorado State at home. This isn’t a sure thing for SDSU — but it’s close.
San Diego State 34, UNLV 17

No. 88 East Carolina at No. 69 Marshall
A win over East Carolina will give Marshall its first winning conference season in seven years in Conference USA. The Herd also need to win this game to become bowl-eligible.
Marshall 27, East Carolina 24

No. 70 Air Force at No. 110 Colorado State
With a win over Colorado State, Air Force is likely headed to a bowl game for the fifth straight season, but the 2011 campaign has been a bit of a disappointment. The Falcons will finish, at best, with a 3–4 record in league play, with wins over New Mexico, UNLV and Colorado State — not exactly the most impressive list of victims.
Air Force 21, Colorado State 14

No. 79 UL-Lafayette at No. 75 Arizona
Just a few days after the Wildcats knocked off rival Arizona State, 31–27 on the road, the school introduced Rich Rodriguez as its new coach. Quite a week.
Arizona 31, UL-Lafayette 24

No. 80 San Jose State at No. 102 Fresno State
Both teams are 4–7 overall, but these are two programs that appear to be heading in opposite directions.
San Jose State 27, Fresno State 20

No. 97 Rice at No. 82 SMU
SMU was expected to compete for the C-USA West title, but the Ponies have been alarmingly uncompetitive against the better teams in the league. Their losses to Southern Miss, Tulsa and Houston have come by a combined score of 102–17.
SMU 31, Rice 10

No. 118 Tulane at No. 83 Hawaii
Hawaii’s 40–20 loss at UNLV in September was one of the most surprising scores of the season. Could that be part of the alleged point shaving scandal at UH?
Hawaii 31, Tulane 17

No. 111 Troy at No. 91 Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky won its sixth straight Sun Belt game last week, beating North Texas, 31–21, on the road. The Hilltoppers have already secured their first non-losing season since joining the FBS ranks in 2009.
Western Kentucky 27, Troy 20

No. 92 FIU at No. 113 Middle Tennessee
FIU won’t be repeating as Sun Belt champs, but the Golden Panthers can secure a second straight winning record in league play by beating the struggling Blue Raiders.
FIU 38, Middle Tennessee 17

No. 93 UAB at No. 119 FAU
It’s been a strange season for UAB. The Blazers are 3–8 overall but have two very good wins, over UCF (26–24) and Southern Miss (34–31).
UAB 31, FAU 10

Last week — 42–14
Season — 486–127

Teaser:
<p> SEC West Showdown between Arkansas and LSU takes center stage</p>
Post date: Friday, November 25, 2011 - 06:54
Path: /college-football/BCS-voting-dilemma-lsu-alabama-or-arkansas
Body:

By Mitch Light

I don’t vote in the two polls that make up two-thirds of the BCS standings — the coaches poll and the Harris poll. But I do a weekly ranking, of all 120 FBS teams, on our website. And it is something I take seriously. It’s not rocket science, but it does take some time to sort through every team and determine where they should be ranked based on which teams they beat (and when they beat them) and which teams they lost to (and when they lost).

It can get pretty confusing, especially in a league like the Big East, which has five teams with two losses in league play. For example, Louisville beat Rutgers. Rutgers beat Cincinnati. Cincinnati beat Louisville. Here’s another one: Syracuse beat West Virginia. West Virginia beat Rutgers. Rutgers beat Syracuse. In each of these cases, it is very difficult to figure out which teams should be ranked higher in the 120 poll. But at least in these examples, the teams involved each lost other games, which allows the voter to get a better read on the teams.

That, however, will not be the case among SEC superpowers if Arkansas defeats LSU this Friday afternoon in Baton Rouge. If this happens, we will be facing — in my opinion — the most difficult dilemma in the history of the college football poll. If the Hogs do manage to pull off the upset and Alabama takes care of business at Auburn, I have absolutely no idea who should be ranked No. 1 in the nation. In this hypothetical scenario, all three teams would be 11–1 with no losses to any team outside of the Big Three in the SEC West.

• Should it be Arkansas, which would be coming off a win against the No. 1 team in the nation on the road? Makes sense. Until you consider that Arkansas lost, 38–14, at Alabama on Sept. 24.

• Should it be Alabama, which handled Arkansas with ease in September? Makes sense. Until you consider that Alabama lost at home to LSU on Nov. 5.

• Should it be LSU, which won on the road against Alabama? Makes sense. Until you consider that LSU would be coming off a loss at home to Arkansas.

There truly is no right answer. Every argument that you come up with can be shot down with sound reasoning. But at some point, every voter — whether it’s for the AP, Harris Poll, Coaches poll or a website like ours — will have to make a decision. So, for arguments sake, if Arkansas beats LSU Friday afternoon by a score of 24–20, I likely will keep LSU No. 1 in the Athlon Sports poll.

From watching these three teams all season, I believe that Alabama and LSU are the two best teams in the nation. Arkansas is obviously very good, but this team has flirted with disaster too many times — vs. Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, at Vanderbilt. LSU has played a slightly more difficult schedule than Alabama, and the Tigers, of course, beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

So while it does seem strange to vote a team No. 1 in the nation even though it lost at home in its most recent game, I believe putting LSU atop the poll is the best decision at this point of the season.

AROUND THE SEC

• LSU has allowed 11 points or less in all seven SEC games. Let that sink in.

• Ole Miss ranks 11th or 12th in the SEC in 15 of the 17 stat categories maintained by the NCAA.

• The seven SEC teams that Georgia has defeated have a combined record of 12–39 in league play. Auburn, at 4–3, is the only team in that group with a winning SEC record.

• Tennessee’s Tauren Poole rushed for a season-high 107 yards in the Vols’ win over Vanderbilt. It was Poole’s first 100-yard game in SEC play since he rushed for 107 yards against Ole Miss last November.

• Alabama’s Trent Richardson has as many rushing touchdowns (20) as the next two players on the SEC leaders list combined —Auburn’s Michael Dyer (10) and Vanderbilt’s Zac Stacy (10).

• Vanderbilt has only hit two of eight field goal attempts in SEC games.

• Alabama and Georgia are the only two teams in the league with over 2,000 yards rushing and 2,000 yards receiving.

• Kentucky ranks 118th in the nation with a 4.13 yards-per-play average.

• Alabama has almost 1,000 more rushing yards in SEC play than Tennessee. The Crimson Tide lead the league with 1,427 yards in seven games; the Vols are last with 447 in seven games.

• South Carolina has only allowed one pass play of at least 40 yards, tied with South Florida for fewest in the nation.
 

Teaser:
<p> An Arkansas win over LSU will create chaos in the polls.</p>
Post date: Tuesday, November 22, 2011 - 11:23
Path: /college-football/college-football-predictions-every-game-week-12
Body:

By Mitch Light (@AthlonMitch)

Here's a look at every game of the Week 12 college football schedule.

FRIDAY

No. 2 Oklahoma State at No. 50 Iowa State
Oklahoma State has done a very good job remaining focused on the task at hand each week. The Pokes have one more test to pass — this weekend in Ames — before the epic showdown with OU in Stillwater.
Oklahoma State 41, Iowa State 17

No. 62 Toledo at No. 114 Central Michigan
Toledo is tied with Northern Illinois in the loss column in the MAC West, but the Rockets lost the head-to-head battle with the Huskies. They will need NIU to lose to either Ball State or Eastern Michigan (both at home) to advance to the MAC title game.
Toledo 41, Central Michigan 13

SATURDAY

No. 1 LSU at No. 86 Ole Miss
It’s the final home game for Houston Nutt as the coach at Ole Miss. Last time out, the Rebels lost to Louisiana Tech, 27–7, in Oxford. It’s highly unlikely that this game will be close.
LSU 34, Ole Miss 7

Georgia Southern at No. 3 Alabama
It will be interesting to see if Georgia Southern’s option attack, ranked No. 2 in the FCS ranks in rushing (320.4 ypg), can get anything going against an Alabama defense that is allowing only 51.9 rushing yards per game.
Alabama 37, Georgia Southern 0

No. 15 USC at No. 4 Oregon
Led by quarterback Matt Barkley, the USC offense has scored 40 points or more in four of its last six games. Last Saturday, the Trojans beat a quality Washington team with ease, 40¬–17. Barkley & Co. figure to score some points — though the Trojans are a bit banged up — but Oregon is playing too well on offense to slip up.
Oregon 41, USC 30

No. 5 Oklahoma at No. 26 Baylor
Oklahoma, at 8–1 overall, is still in the national title picture, but the Sooners’ one loss looks worse and worse each week. Texas Tech has lost its three games since that shocking win in Norman by a combined score of 159–33. Oklahoma has won its two games since that loss in convincing fashion, 58–17 at Kansas State and 41–25 vs. Texas A&M.
Oklahoma 48, Baylor 30

No. 51 Mississippi State at No. 6 Arkansas
Mississippi State has only scored more than 28 points in an SEC game once, at Auburn in Week 1. Arkansas has scored over 28 points against every SEC team not named Alabama.
Arkansas 34, Mississippi State 17

No. 7 Clemson at No. 59 NC State
There are rumors swirling that NC State coach Tom O’Brien could be on the way out. Beating Clemson would probably quiet some of that talk. That, however, isn’t likely to happen.
Clemson 31, NC State 21

No. 52 California at No. 8 Stanford
Stanford’s national title hopes ended last Saturday night, but the Cardinal are still in play for a BCS bowl. They will have to win their final two games, starting with the Big Game this Saturday at home. The Bears have played two teams currently ranked (Oregon and USC) and lost those games by a combined score of 73¬–22.
Stanford 38, California 17

No. 99 Indiana at No. 10 Michigan State
Indiana is the only BCS conference team that has not defeated at least one FBS opponent this season. The Hoosiers’ lone win came against South Carolina State back in September.
Michigan State 41, Indiana 13

No. 11 Wisconsin at No. 43 Illinois
Wisconsin is averaging 250.1 yards per game rushing and 248.9 yards per game passing. And by the way, UW is also ranked No. 5 in the nation in scoring defense. This is an elite team.
Wisconsin 38, Illinois 14

No. 12 Kansas State at No. 30 Texas
The Longhorns appeared to have hit their stride in recent weeks, but it turned out the wins over Kansas (43–0) and Texas Tech (52–0) were a bit of fool’s gold. Last weekend, they lost at Missouri, 17–5, to drop to 3–3 in the Big 12. UT managed only 247 total yards against a Mizzou defense that was torched for 686 yards the previous week by Baylor. Let that sink in for a moment.
Kansas State 24, Texas 20

No. 13 Boise State at No. 65 San Diego State
Boise State’s slim hopes at a national title ended when Dan Goodale’s 39-yard field goal attempt sailed wide to the right. San Diego State is good enough to make Boise State sweat, but the Broncos should get back on track.
Boise State 37, San Diego State 21

No. 85 Kentucky at No. 14 Georgia
A win over the Wildcats will send Georgia to the SEC Championship Game for the first time since 2005. The chances of this happening are highly likely.
Georgia 44, Kentucky 10

The Citadel at No. 16 South Carolina
The Gamecocks step out into the FCS ranks for a tune-up for the big showdown with Clemson next weekend. This will not be competitive.
South Carolina 48, The Citadel 0

No. 17 Nebraska at No. 22 Michigan
These two storied programs, who shared the national championship in 1997, meet for only the sixth time overall and for the first time in the regular season since 1962. Both teams are 4–2 in the Big Ten and one full game behind Michigan State in the Legends Division. Nebraska, however, does have a head-to-head win over MSU.
Michigan 24, Nebraska 17

No. 18 Penn State at No. 27 Ohio State
Ohio State freshman quarterback Braxton Miller is showing signs of life, but this team simply doesn’t scare anyone in the passing game. The Buckeyes have thrown for 90 yards or fewer in three of six Big Ten games and have not topped the 150-yard passing mark in a league game once. Fortunately for Ohio State, Penn State has major issues on offense as well. Don’t expect many points.
Ohio State 17, Penn State 13

No. 109 Colorado State at No. 19 TCU
Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild pulled the redshirt off freshman Garrett Grayson in the second quarter of last week’s loss to San Diego State. Sounds a bit desperate.
TCU 33, Colorado State 7

No. 71 SMU at No. 20 Houston
Houston, ranked No. 11 in the latest BCS rankings, will likely play in its first BCS bowl with wins in its final two regular-season games (SMU, at Tulsa) and a win in the C-USA title game.
Houston 47, SMU 27

No. 31 Virginia at No. 21 Florida State
Upstart Virginia controls its own destiny in the ACC Coastal, but the Cavs would have to complete an improbable sweep — beating Florida State in Tallahassee and Virginia Tech at home.
Florida State 24, Virginia 21

No. 78 Boston College at No. 23 Notre Dame
Not much has gone well for Boston College, but the Eagles did beat former coach Tom O’Brien and his NC State club for a third straight time in Chestnut Hill.
Notre Dame 41, Boston College 10

No. 24 Georgia Tech at No. 74 Duke
Duke secured its 17th straight losing season with a loss last week at Virginia. The Blue Devils have been more competitive under David Cutcliffe’s watch, but they still can’t get over the hump.
Georgia Tech 34, Duke 13

No. 28 Cincinnati at No. 48 Rutgers
It’s time for Munchie Legaux at Cincinnati. With starting quarterback Zach Colloras out for the rest of the regular season, Legaux, a dual-threat QB from New Orleans, steps in for the Bearcats.
Cincinnati 27, Rutgers 23

No. 57 Texas Tech at No. 29 Missouri
Texas Tech’s post-Oklahoma collapse continued last week with a 66–6 loss at home to Oklahoma State. It’s astounding how bad this team has been in recent weeks.
Missouri 34, Texas Tech 22

Samford at No. 32 Auburn
Auburn is in a bit of an offensive funk, having scored 17 points or fewer in its last five games not against Ole Miss. Look for the Tigers to flex their muscles against Samford.
Auburn 48, Samford 10

No. 33 Washington at No. 79 Oregon State
Keith Price’s efficiency has taken a hit as Washington’s schedule has toughened up. Through the first six games, the Huskies’ sophomore quarterback threw 21 touchdowns and only four interceptions. In the last four games — at Stanford, vs. Arizona, vs. Oregon, at USC — he has thrown four touchdowns and six interception.
Washington 38, Oregon State 20

No. 34 Miami (Fla.) at No. 55 South Florida
Last year, South Florida’s 23–20 overtime win at Miami probably sealed the fate of former Hurricane coach Randy Shannon. The Canes will be eager to exact some revenge.
Miami (Fla.) 21, South Florida 17

Furman at No. 35 Florida
Furman head coach Bruce Fowler made four trips to The Swamp as the defensive coordinator at Vanderbilt (2002-10). He lost all four games.
Florida 41, Furman 7

No. 36 Tulsa at No. 95 UTEP
Houston is stealing the headlines in C-USA West, but Tulsa is 6–0 in league play and hosts the Cougars in the finale on Nov. 25. Don’t be surprised if the Golden Hurricane crash the Coogs’ party.
Tulsa 41, UTEP 17

No. 81 Arizona at No. 37 Arizona State
Both teams are coming off troubling losses. Arizona lost badly (48–29) to a Colorado team that had lost its previous five Pac-12 games by an average of 38.2 points. Arizona State, meanwhile, missed a huge opportunity in its quest to wrap up a spot in the Pac-12 title game by losing at Washington State, 37–27.
Arizona State 34, Arizona 20

No. 38 Utah at No. 66 Washington State
Wazzu rolled up 590 yards of offense in its win over Arizona State last week, the most for the Cougars since a 601-yard effort against Cal in 2005. Posting gaudy numbers against the Utah defense will not be so easy.
Utah 24, Washington State 17

No. 93 Kansas at No. 39 Texas A&M
Texas A&M has averaged 34.6 points in its five losses. That is hard to do.
Texas A&M 41, Kansas 14

No. 42 Iowa at No. 54 Purdue
Purdue, which is 5–1 in the friendly confines of Ross-Ade Stadium, needs to beat Iowa at home this week or win at Indiana (winless against FBS foes) to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2007.
Purdue 21, Iowa 20

No. 83 Minnesota at No. 44 Northwestern
Northwestern has won three straight games and needs one more victory to secure its fifth straight non-losing regular season — the longest such streak at the school since the 1920s.
Northwestern 38, Minnesota 24

No. 87 Maryland at No. 45 Wake Forest
Wake Forest, currently 4–3 in the ACC, can secure a winning league record for the first time since 2007 with a win over the struggling Terps. Maryland has lost six straight, the last five by 10 points or more.
Wake Forest 31, Maryland 21

No. 46 Vanderbilt at No. 58 Tennessee
With two games still to play, Vanderbilt has already won more games this season (five) than the last two seasons combined (four). And there has been nothing fluky about the Dores’ 5–5 mark; in fact, Vanderbilt, with three SEC losses by five points or less, is a few plays away from being 7–3 or even 8–2.
Vanderbilt 27, Tennessee 23

No. 47 Louisville at No. 72 Connecticut
Two of the five two-loss teams in the Big East get together in Storrs. The loser is all but out of the league race. The winner still has plenty of work to do.
Louisville 21, Connecticut 20

No. 80 Colorado at No. 49 UCLA
UCLA controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South, starting with this Saturday’s date with Colorado. If the Bruins beat the Buffaloes and then somehow find a way to beat rival USC on the road, Rick Neuheisal will find himself in the first-ever Pac-12 Championship Game. It’s still an uphill battle — USC is playing great football — but stranger things have happened.
UCLA 31, Colorado 17

No. 100 New Mexico State at No. 56 BYU
New Mexico State has made tremendous progress in Year 3 of the DeWayne Walker era. The Aggies are 4–6 overall, with wins over Minnesota, New Mexico, Idaho and Fresno State. The closing slate is tough — at BYU, at Louisiana Tech, vs. Utah State — but there is legitimate hope in Las Cruces for the first time in a while.
BYU 34, New Mexico State 16

No. 60 Louisiana Tech at No. 61 Nevada
Neither team can clinch, but the winner of this game will almost assuredly win the WAC title in the first year post-Boise State. Louisiana Tech has quietly put together a five-game winning streak, highlighted by last week’s 27–7 win at Ole Miss. The Bulldogs’ late surge has made their coach, Sonny Dykes, a strong candidate at Arizona.
Louisiana Tech 35, Nevada 31

No. 63 Arkansas State at No. 113 Middle Tennessee
Arkansas State can wrap up at least a share of the Sun Belt title with a win in Murfreesboro this weekend. The Red Wolves have won seven in a row and have only lost at Illinois and at Virginia Tech. This is a very good team.
Arkansas State 41, Middle Tennessee 20

No. 64 Wyoming at No. 115 New Mexico
Big happenings at New Mexico this week. First, the Lobos beat UNLV to pick up the first win under interim coach George Barlow. Then, on Wednesday, news came out that former Notre Dame coach Bob Davie was named head coach at UNM.
Wyoming 41, New Mexico 10

No. 116 UNLV at No. 69 Air Force
UNLV was good enough to beat a decent Hawaii team by 20 points in Week 3 yet lost at home to Southern Utah (by 25 points) and at New Mexico. Strange season for the Rebs.
Air Force 37, UNLV 13

No. 70 Navy at No. 97 San Jose State
Navy has won two in a row, beating Troy at home and winning at SMU, to keep its hopes alive of playing a bowl game for a ninth straight season. The Middies close with this trip to San Jose State and then play rival Army on Dec. 10.
Navy 27, San Jose State 24

No. 107 Army at No. 75 Temple
Temple has played three straight games decided by four points or loss, losing at Bowling Green by three, at Ohio by four and beating Miami (Ohio) by three. This week shouldn’t be close.
Temple 30, Army 14

No. 76 Utah State at No. 112 Idaho State
The Aggies have figured out a way to win the close games, with a four-point win over Hawaii and a one-point win over San Jose State in the last two weeks. It shouldn’t be close this week.
Utah State 37, Idaho 10

No. 77 UCF at No. 96 East Carolina
It’s been a disappointing season for UCF, which was expected to battle for the C-USA East title. The Knights, however, are 4–6 overall and 2–4 in the league, though five of the six losses have been by seven points or less.
UCF 24, East Carolina 23

No. 102 Fresno State at No. 84 Hawaii
These are not good times for Pat Hill at Fresno State. The Bulldog faithful can handle losing to Boise State, and maybe even Nevada, but losing to Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State is frowned upon.
Hawaii 34, Fresno State 20

No. 89 Western Kentucky at No. 98 North Texas
The Hilltoppers lost last week for the first time since Oct. 1, but there is no shame in losing to LSU in Baton Rouge. WKU’s Sun Belt streak is alive at five straight games — and should move to six after this weekend.
Western Kentucky 21, North Texas 17

No. 92 FIU at No. 105 UL-Monroe
FIU will not repeat as Sun Belt champs, but the Golden Panthers are still having a solid season. They are 6–4 overall and 3–3 in league play and have a good opportunity to close the season with wins over UL-Monroe and Middle Tennessee.
FIU 24, UL-Monroe 17

No. 118 Tulane at No. 94 Rice
The Green Wave are limping to the finish line, with losses in eight straight games, the last five by at least six points.
Rice 31, Tulane 14

No. 101 Eastern Michigan at No. 110 Kent State
Both of these teams have exceeded expectations. Eastern Michigan is 6–4 overall and an amazing 4–2 in league play, while Kent State has won three straight to even its MAC record to 3–3.
Kent State 21, Eastern Michigan 20

No. 120 Akron at No. 106 Buffalo
Akron took over the dreaded No. 120 spot in our rankings after New Mexico lost last week. There is nothing that this team has done of late to suggest it can win a game vs. an FBS foe.
Buffalo 31, Akron 6

No. 119 FAU at No. 111 Troy
FAU is still searching for its first win in the final season of Howard Schnellenberger’s legendary coaching career. It’s not likely to come this weekend.
Troy 38, FAU 15

Last week — 40-12
Season — 444–113

Teaser:
<p> Kansas State-Texas, USC-Oregon, Nebraska-Michigan highlight the schedule.</p>
Post date: Friday, November 18, 2011 - 07:26
Path: /college-football/college-football-predictions-10-key-games-week-12
Body:

 

By Mitch Light (@AthlonMitch)

Here are previews and predictions for the 10 best college football games this weekend.

Nebraska (+3.5) at Michigan
These two storied programs, who shared the national championship in 1997, meet for only the sixth time overall and for the first time in the regular season since 1962. Both teams are 4–2 in the Big Ten and one full game behind Michigan State in the Legends Division. Nebraska, however, is in much better shape due to its head-to-head win over MSU. The Huskers are coming off an emotional win at Penn State, in the first post-Joe Paterno game at Beaver Stadium. Now, they must refocus for their trip to the Big House. Michigan hasn’t been quite as potent on offense this season, but the defense has improved drastically in the first year of the Brady Hoke era. In 2010, the Wolverines gave up 34 points or more in seven of eight Big Ten games; this year, they’ve allowed 28 or less in all six games to date.
Michigan 24, Nebraska 17

USC (+15.5) at Oregon
Oregon played its way back into the national title picture with an impressive 53–30 win at previously unbeaten Stanford. The Ducks didn’t pile up a ton of yards (387), but they made enough big plays on offense, and the defense forced five turnovers. Oregon can secure the Pac-12 North title (and a spot as the host in the championship game) with a win this week vs. USC or in two weeks vs. Oregon State. The Trojans will provide the far bigger test. Led by quarterback Matt Barkley, the USC offense has scored 40 points or more in four of its last six games. Last Saturday, the Trojans beat a quality Washington team with ease, 40¬–17. Barkley & Co. figure to score some points, but Oregon is playing too well on offense to slip up.
Oregon 41, USC 30

Oklahoma (+15.5) at Baylor
Oklahoma, at 8–1 overall, is still in the national title picture, but the Sooners’ one loss looks worse and worse each week. Texas Tech has lost its three games since that shocking win in Norman by a combined score of 159–33. Oklahoma has won its two games since that loss in convincing fashion, 58–17 at Kansas State and 41–25 vs. Texas A&M. This is still an elite team. Baylor averted disaster last week by rallying from a 24¬–3 deficit at Kansas to win 31–30 in overtime. The Bears rank second nationally in total offense (567.9 ypg), but the defense has been an issue all season. Junior quarterback Robert Griffin III is one of the most talented players in the nation, but he slipped out of the Heisman race when Baylor lost three of its first four Big 12 games. OU’s Landry Jones, however, is near the top of Heisman list, and he will have an opportunity to put up big numbers in Waco this weekend.
Oklahoma 48, Baylor 30

Penn State (+7) at Ohio State
Both teams are coming off of losses, but the circumstances were far different. Penn State lost at home to Nebraska, 17–14, in the first game in Happy Valley without Joe Paterno on the staff since 1949. Ohio State, meanwhile, dropped a 26–23 decision in overtime to a Purdue team that had given up a total of 96 points in its two previous games. The Buckeyes lost a total of four Big Ten games from 2006-10 but already have three league losses in ‘11, and there are still two games remaining. The main problem in Columbus is the offense; true freshman Braxton Miller is showing signs of life, but this team simply doesn’t scare anyone in the passing game. The Buckeyes have thrown for 90 yards or fewer in three of six Big Ten games and have not topped the 150-yard passing mark in a league game once. Fortunately for Ohio State, Penn State has major issues on offense as well. Don’t expect many points.
Ohio State 17, Penn State 13

Kansas State (+9.5) at Texas
Collin Klein authored another thrilling chapter to what has been a magical junior season, running for five touchdowns and throwing for another in Kansas State’s 53–50, four-overtime win over visiting Texas A&M last week. The Wildcats, picked by most to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 standings, are now 8–2 overall and 5–2 in the league. They will be tested by a talented but unproven Texas team that is still searching for its first quality win. The Longhorns appeared to have hit their stride in recent weeks, but it turned out the wins over Kansas (43–0) and Texas Tech (52–0) were a bit of fool’s gold. Last weekend, they lost at Missouri, 17–5, to drop to 3–3 in the Big 12. UT managed only 247 total yards against a Mizzou defense that was torched for 686 yards the previous week by Baylor. Let that sink in for a moment.
Kansas State 24, Texas 20

California (+19) at Stanford
Stanford’s national title hopes ended last Saturday night, but the Cardinal are still in play for a BCS bowl. They will have to win their final two games, starting with the Big Game this Saturday at home. Stanford beat the Bears last season, 48–14, but Cal had previously won seven of eight in the series. The 2011 Bears have won three of their last four games, beating up on the weaker teams in the league (Utah, Washington State and Oregon State). Zach Maynard has been inconsistent at quarterback in his first season at Cal, but he has played well the past two weeks. Maynard will have to be mistake-free, and underrated tailback Isi Sofele will need to run the ball well to give Jeff Tedford’s club a chance. The Bears have played two teams currently ranked (Oregon and USC) and lost those games by a combined score of 73¬–22.
Stanford 38, California 17

Vanderbilt (-1.5) at Tennessee
Will he or won’t he? The big question in the state of Tennessee this week is whether sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray will play Saturday night when Vanderbilt visits Neyland Stadium — as the favorite. Bray returned to practice this week for the first time since breaking his hand on Oct. 8 vs. Georgia. Bray will almost certainly give it a go, but there is no way to know how effective he will be until he is forced to perform against a live defense. With two games still to play, Vanderbilt has already won more games this season (five) than the last two seasons combined (four). And there has been nothing fluky about the Dores’ 5–5 mark; in fact, Vanderbilt, with three SEC losses by five points or less, is a few plays away from being 7–3 or even 8–2. I’m not sure Vanderbilt has a better overall roster, but the Commodores are surely playing better than Tennessee at this point of the season.
Vanderbilt 27, Tennessee 23

Wisconsin (-14.5) at Illinois

Wisconsin trails Penn State by a game in the Leaders Division, but the Badgers, who host Penn State next weekend, control their own destiny. This week, they head to Champaign to face an Illinois team that has lost four straight and is dealing with the distractions about the job security of coach Ron Zook. The Fighting Illini are struggling on offense, having scored 14 points or less in all four of their losses. They will have to find some way to score some points this week because Wisconsin boasts one of the best, and most balanced, offenses in the nation. The Badgers are averaging 250.1 yards per game rushing and 248.9 yards per game passing. And by the way, UW is also ranked No. 5 in the nation in scoring defense. This is an elite team.
Wisconsin 38, Illinois 14

Cincinnati (-3.5) at Rutgers
With six of the eight teams in the Big East with either one loss (Cincinnati) or two losses (Louisville, WVU, Pitt, Rutgers, UConn), pretty much every game in the league is a big game. Cincinnati has played three straight games that have been decided by exactly three points, beating South Florida and Pitt and losing to West Virginia. The Bearcats will be without starting quarterback Zach Collaros, who is out for the remainder of the regular season with an ankle injury. In steps Munchie Legaux, a dual-threat quarterback from New Orleans who threw for 144 yards and ran for 77 after replacing Collaros last weekend. Rutgers, like UC, has played a bunch of close games this season, with five of its 10 games decided by three points or less.
Cincinnati 27, Rutgers 23

Arizona (+10.5) at Arizona State
Both teams are coming off troubling losses. Arizona lost badly (48–29) to a Colorado team that had lost its previous five Pac-12 games by an average of 38.2 points. Arizona State, meanwhile, missed a huge opportunity in its quest to wrap up a spot in the Pac-12 title game by losing at Washington State, 37–27. The Sun Devils are tied with UCLA at 4–3 in the league (USC is 5–2 but ineligible), but UCLA owns the tie-breaker. The Bruins, however, still have to play at USC (as well as vs. Colorado at home), while ASU hosts Arizona and California. The Sun Devils have the easier path. Now it’s time for this team to care of business.
Arizona State 34, Arizona 20

Last week — 7–3 (5-5 vs. spread)
Season — 72–36 (55–53–2 vs. spread)

Teaser:
<p> Nebraska-Penn State, USC-Oregon headline the Week 11 schedule</p>
Post date: Thursday, November 17, 2011 - 07:21
Path: /college-football/oregon-tear-pac-12
Body:

By Mitch Light

At the risk of stating the obvious: Oregon is on quite a tear in the Pac-10-turned-12. The Ducks just won their 19th straight league game — and did so in impressive fashion — and they have won 27 of their last 28 conference games dating back to the 2008 season.

The most impressive stat during their winning streak: The Ducks have won those 19 straight by an average of 20.6 points.

How does this compare with USC’s run of dominance in the Pac-10 in the mid-2000s? I’m glad I asked. From late in the 2003 season through the midpoint of the ’06 season, the Trojans won 27 straight league games by an average of 24.7 points.

So Oregon, while clearly dominant, hasn’t quite reached the standard set by Pete Carroll’s teams. And, most important, USC won two national titles during that stretch.

Oregon was close last year, and might very well be ranked No. 2 in the BCS had it not opened the season against LSU in Dallas. There were concerns heading into the season — Oregon lost key parts on both lines of scrimmage — but the Ducks are still an elite team with one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. Oregon leads the Pac-12 (and ranks second in the nation) with 22 plays of 40 yards or more. Next on the list is Washington with 12.

The Ducks have also proven they can play a little defense. Two weeks ago, they held Washington to a season-low 17 points and only 278 yards of offense. Then, in the big win at Stanford last Saturday night, Oregon held the Cardinal to a season-low 30 points and a Pac-12-season-low 385 total yards.

Oregon, No. 4 in the latest BCS rankings, closes the season with home games against USC and Oregon State. The Ducks have to win one game to secure a spot in the first-ever Pac-12 Championship Game, which will be played at Autzen Stadium. Win that, and it’s back to the Rose Bowl for the second time in three years … unless, of course, things break just right and Oregon grabs the No. 2 spot in the BCS and finds itself back in the national title game.

Stranger things have happened. Just ask Les Miles.

AROUND THE PAC-12

• Keith Price’s efficiency has taken a hit as Washington’s schedule has toughened up. Through the first six games, the Huskies’ sophomore quarterback threw 21 touchdowns and only four interceptions. In the last four games — at Stanford, vs. Arizona, vs. Oregon, at USC — he has thrown four touchdowns and six interceptions.

• Utah has averaged 33.2 points in its six wins and 13.0 points in its three losses.

• The Utes are one of only two teams in the nation that has not allowed a play from scrimmage of at least 50 yards. Michigan is the other.

• Oregon has four of the top seven rushers in the league, as ranked by yards per carry — D’Anthony Thomas (7.96), LaMichael James (7.89), Kenjon Barner (6.63) and Tra Carson (5.74).

• Stanford is the only team in the country that is perfect in the Red Zone — 57 scores in 57 trips, with 45 touchdowns and 12 field goals.

• Oregon State has scored a total of 27 points in its last three games. It’s the worst three-game stretch for the Beavers since 1997, when they scored a total of 21 points in losses to Cal (14), Arizona (7) and USC (0).

• Cal has allowed a total of 23 points in its last three Pac-12 wins.
 

Teaser:
<p> Ducks have won 19 straight league games by an average of 20.6 points</p>
Post date: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 - 16:06
Path: /college-football/Vanderbilt-One-Win-Away-From-Bowl-Eligibility
Body:

By Mitch Light

According to the numbers, Vanderbilt was the worst team in the nation last season relative to its conference. The Commodores were outgained in their eight SEC games by an average of 245.4 yards and outscored by an average of 21.0 points.

Enter James Franklin.

With two games still to play, Vanderbilt has already won more games this season (five) than the last two seasons combined (four). And there has been nothing fluky about the Dores’ 5–5 mark; in fact, Vanderbilt, with three SEC losses by five points or less, is a few plays away from being 7–3 or even 8–2.

This season, Vanderbilt has only been outgained in SEC games by 31.5 yards (an improvement off over 200 yards per game) and outscored by 1.7 points (an improvement of 19.3 points per game).

The most dramatic difference has been on the offensive side of the ball. The Dores, for the first time in several years, feature legitimate playmakers at the skill positions. In four starts, quarterback Jordan Rodgers has averaged 232.5 yards passing and 52.8 yards rushing. Junior running back Zac Stacy, healthy for the first time since his freshman season, has rushed for 891 yards and nine touchdowns, and he leads the league (min. 80 carries) with a 6.5-yard average. Sophomore wide receiver Jordan Matthews has been on a tear of late with 21 catches for 452 yards and three TDs in the last three games.

“They made the quarterback switch (from Larry Smith to Rodgers), and they do everything,” said Tennessee coach Derek Dooley. “You can’t cheat against them, meaning every time they do this, they are going to do that. You got to go play. And what’s interesting is they really find a way to generate big plays, as good as anybody. I think Arkansas is the only team with more big plays than they’ve had.”

To Dooley’s point, Vanderbilt ranks second in the SEC (to Arkansas) in plays of 30 yards or more and leads the league in plays of 40 yards or more.

Last week, in a 38–8 win over Kentucky, the Commodores rolled up 410 yards of offense. Over the last four games, they have averaged 444.8 yards and twice in that stretch had over 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing in the same game.

And it’s with this momentum that Vanderbilt heads to Knoxville — as a one-point favorite — to take on a Tennessee team that is 0–6 in the SEC for the first time ever.

“We feel real confident,” said sophomore defensive end Walker May. “We feel good, loose, ready to go. It's so fun. We are looking forward to this weekend, not looking back on the Kentucky win.”

The Commodores need to beat either Tennessee this week or Wake Forest next week to become bowl-eligible for the first times since 2008 and only the second time since the 1982 season.

Vanderbilt last defeated Tennessee in 2005, when Jay Cutler was a junior. Prior to that, the Dores had not won in Knoxville since 1975.

“I am not too familiar with the rivalry,” said Rodgers, a California native who enrolled at Vanderbilt last year after two seasons in junior college. “I know it has been pretty lopsided between the two schools.”

Rodgers believes his team is peaking at the right time of the season.

“With how much we’ve improved, I think it is a good time for us to be playing anybody,” he said. “I feel like we've gotten to the point where we’re confident that we can get a win against anybody we face, if we play how we know we should and execute how we know we should. So, for us right now, we go into every game thinking that we should win, that we should be able to compete. So, right now it's a good time for us to be playing anybody.”

AROUND THE SEC

• Florida scored a total of two touchdowns in its last three road games, losses at LSU, Auburn and South Carolina.

• South Carolina won six SEC games for the first time since joining the league in 1992.

• Arkansas held Tennessee to seven points in last week’s win in Fayetteville. It was the first time the Hogs have held an SEC team to single digits since beating Ole Miss, 44–8, in October 2007.

• Ole Miss is giving up a league-worst 6.67 yards per play against SEC competition. Alabama, the league leader, is giving up 3.5 yards per play.

• Alabama’s Eddie Lacy is averaging 12.2 yards per carry in the fourth quarter and 9.9 yards in the second half.

• Georgia has allowed 16 points or less is six of its eight wins this season.

• Auburn’s 195 yards in the loss to Georgia were the second-fewest of the Gus Malzahn era. Two years ago, the Tigers had 193 yards in a loss to LSU.

• LSU has given up four total touchdowns in six SEC games.

• Tennessee is converting 66.7 percent (42 of 63) on third down in non-conference games but only 24.7 percent (20 of 81) in league games.

Teaser:
<p> Vanderbilt's improvement on offense has put the Commodores in position to become bowl-eligible.</p>
Post date: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 - 04:21
Path: /college-football/college-football-predictions-every-game-week-11
Body:

By Mitch Light (@AthlonMitch)

Here's a look at every game of the Week 11 college football schedule.

Friday

No. 59 South Florida at No. 73 Syracuse
These two teams are a combined 1–7 in Big East play, with the only win, by Syracuse, coming over West Virginia by 26 points. Go figure.
South Florida 24, Syracuse 20

Saturday

No. 89 Western Kentucky at No. 1 LSU
Western Kentucky has won five straight games, two in overtime and another one by a single point. Their winning streak will end on Saturday.
LSU 44, Western Kentucky 7

No. 2 Oklahoma State at No. 50 Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have been outscored 93–27 since their historic win over Oklahoma in Norman. Oklahoma State will be playing its first game as the No. 2 team in the BCS standings.
Oklahoma State 48, Texas Tech 27

No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Stanford
It’s dangerous to put too much stock in a game that was played last season, but Oregon’s speed overwhelmed Stanford in the Ducks’ 52–31 win in Eugene last fall. Stanford’s incredible run of 17 straight wins — all but two decided by 10 points or more — is in serious jeopardy.
Oregon 37, Stanford 31

No. 4 Alabama at No. 51 Mississippi State
Alabama is no longer unbeaten, but the Crimson Tide still have the nation’s top defense. They are allowing only 187.0 yards per game — 63 fewer than the nation’s second-ranked defense, Michigan State.
Alabama 27, Mississippi State 6

No. 33 TCU at No. 5 Boise State
TCU is having a solid season at 7–2 overall and 4–0 in the MWC, but the Horned Frogs have clearly taken a few steps back in 2011. They don’t really have a quality win, and their two losses have come against teams (Baylor and SMU) not ranked in the top 25.
Boise State 37, TCU 24

No. 53 Tennessee at No. 8 Arkansas
Arkansas has had its issues away from home, but the Razorbacks have been dominant in Fayetteville. This is a very tough start for Tennessee quarterback Justin Worley, a true freshman who will making his first start on the road.
Arkansas 31, Tennessee 14

No. 47 Wake Forest at No. 9 Clemson
Clemson’s hopes at a perfect season were dashed in Atlanta two weeks ago, but the Tigers still have plenty to play for, most notably their first-ever trip to a BCS bowl.
Clemson 38, Wake Forest 20

No. 11 Michigan State at No. 42 Iowa
Stopping Marcus Coker will be the top priority for the Spartans. Michigan State boasts some gaudy defensive numbers — No. 2 in the nation in total defense, No. 8 in scoring defense — but has not been as stout in recent weeks. Minnesota had Big Ten-season highs of 415 yards and 24 points in a 31–24 loss to MSU in East Lansing on Saturday.
Iowa 24, Michigan State 17

No. 12 Wisconsin at No. 83 Minnesota
Minnesota is playing better of late, but it’s safe to say that Paul Bunyan’s Axe will remain in Madison for at least one more season.
Wisconsin 41, Minnesota 10

No. 35 Texas A&M at No. 12 Kansas State
What does Kansas State need to do to get some respect from the boys in Vegas? The Wildcats are 7–2 overall, with the two losses coming to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, yet find themselves as a 4.5-point underdog at home to a Texas A&M team that is 5–4 overall and has lost two straight games.
Kansas State 37, Texas A&M 34

No. 31 Auburn at No. 14 Georgia
Winners of seven straight games, Georgia can take a giant step toward its first SEC East title since 2005 with a win over Auburn Saturday afternoon. The Bulldogs are one game up on South Carolina and have two league games remaining — Auburn and Kentucky, both at home.
Georgia 24, Auburn 20

No. 27 Washington at No. 15 USC
Washington is potent on offense — led by quarterback Keith Price and tailback Chris Polk — but there is no indication that the Huskies are good enough on defense to slow down USC enough to win this game.
USC 35, Washington 24

No. 20 Nebraska at No. 17 Penn State
The national spotlight is on Penn State this weekend — and not because the Nittany Lions are 8–1 overall and 5–0 in the Big Ten. We have no idea how the players will deal with the distractions, but the guess here is that we won’t see Penn State at its finest this week.
Nebraska 20, Penn State 10

No. 36 Florida at No. 18 South Carolina
Who would have thought that a game that featured Steve Spurrier and Charlie Weis calling the plays would have a quarterback matchup of Connor Shaw vs. John Brantley?
Florida 23, South Carolina 17

No. 19 Texas at No. 34 Missouri
Just when you thought that Missouri had righted the ship — after an overtime win at Texas A&M — the Tigers gave up an astounding 686 yards of total offense in a 42–39 loss at Baylor. Mizzou dropped 27 spots in the national total defense rankings in one week, from 62nd to 89th. That is very hard to do this late in the season.
Texas 33, Missouri 24

No. 21 Ohio State at No. 61 Purdue
With a true freshman (Braxton Miller) starting at quarterback, the Buckeyes are turning toward the running game. In their win over Indiana last week, three Buckeyes, including Miller, rushed for at least 100 yards.
Ohio State 30, Purdue 17

No. 30 Miami (Fla.) at No. 23 Florida State
For the seventh time in seven years, we will not have a Florida State vs. Miami showdown in the ACC Championship Game. Maybe one day these two programs, who dominated in the ‘80s and ‘90s, will return to elite status.
Florida State 24, Miami (Fla.) 22

No. 24 Michigan at No. 41 Illinois
Illinois raced out to a 6–0 start, averaging 34.7 points along the way. Since, the Illini are 0–3 and have scored a total of 28 points.
Michigan 28, Illinois 20

No. 49 West Virginia at No. 25 Cincinnati
Winners of six straight games, Cincinnati is one of the hottest teams in the nation. The Bearcats return home for a huge game with West Virginia after taking two huge road games, at South Florida and Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati 34, West Virginia 31

No. 26 Notre Dame at No. 87 Maryland (Landover, Md.)
Maryland’s nightmare season took another bad turn last week, with a lethargic 31–13 loss at home to Virginia. Randy Edsall, in his first season with the Terps, has lost at home to Temple, Boston College and Virginia (as well as Clemson).
Notre Dame 41, Maryland 17

No. 28 Arizona State at No. 80 Washington State
Arizona State slipped into a tie with UCLA in the Pac-12 South, and the Bruins, by virtue of their win over ASU last week, own the tiebreaker. The Sun Devils probably need to win their final three games to reach the title game.
Arizona State 37, Washington State 20

No. 84 UCF at No. 29 Southern Miss
At least when SMU was blatantly cheating back in the day, the Mustangs were winning big. UCF, on the other hand, is 4–5 with a brutal loss to UAB on its resume.
Southern Miss 38, UCF 21

No. 32 Baylor at No. 93 Kansas
Baylor rolled up 686 total yards last week against Missouri. The Bears should aim for 1,000 against Kansas.
Baylor 56, Kansas 24

No. 74 Duke at No. 37 Virginia
The Cavs have very quietly won four of their last five games and are bowl-eligible under second-year coach Mike London. With Florida State and Virginia Tech looming, they better grab win No. 7 this week.
Virginia 33, Duke 24

No. 38 UCLA at No. 48 Utah
Left for dead just three weeks ago after a 48–12 loss at Arizona, UCLA has played its way into contention in the Pac-12 South with consecutive wins over Cal and Arizona State.
Utah 24, UCLA 20

No. 63 Marshall at No. 39 Tulsa
First-year Tulsa coach Bill Blankenship has his team playing extremely well. The Golden Hurricane have won five straight, highlighted by a 38–7 win over fellow C-USA West contender SMU and a 24–17 road win vs. UCF.
Tulsa 37, Marshall 20

No. 95 Rice at No. 43 Northwestern
This is how crazy college football can be: The same Northwestern team that lost to Army in Week 3 beat Nebraska, 28–25, in Lincoln. The Wildcats now return home for a season-ending three-game homestand.
Northwestern 41, Rice 24

No. 58 Pittsburgh at No. 44 Louisville
Freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is living up to the hype for the red-hot Louisville Cardinals. The Florida native completed 21-of-27 passes for 246 yards to lead the U of L to a stunning 38–35 win at West Virginia last week.
Louisville 27, Pittsburgh 22

No. 107 Army vs. No. 45 Rutgers (Yankee Stadium)
Army’s hopes of playing in a bowl game for a second straight season are on life support. The Black Knights are 3–6 with Rutgers, Temple and Navy still on the slate.
Rutgers 28, Army 14

No. 81 Kentucky at No. 52 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is 1–5 in the SEC, but the Dores last three losses — to Georgia, Arkansas and Florida — have come by an average of 4.3 points.
Vanderbilt 27, Kentucky 17

No. 54 NC State at No. 85 Boston College
NC State boss Tom O’Brien is 1–3 vs. his old team, and his two losses in Chestnut Hill have come by an average of 26 points. That will change.
NC State 30, Boston College 14

No. 71 Navy at No. 55 SMU
Navy, like its military rival Army, must win its final three games to become bowl-eligible. This trip to SMU is clearly the Middies’ toughest test. A trip to San Jose State and the clash with Army remain.
SMU 33, Navy 20

No. 76 Oregon State at No. 56 California
Oregon State will have losing records in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1997-98, which coincided with Mike Riley’s first tour of duty in Corvallis.
California 27, Oregon State 14

No. 112 Idaho at No. 57 BYU
It’s been a tough first season in the post-Nathan Enderle era at Idaho, but the Vandals did pick up their first win vs. an FBS opponent last week, knocking off San Jose State, 32–29, on the road.
BYU 31, Idaho 10

No. 60 Arizona at No. 94 Colorado
Both teams are struggling in conference play this season, but at least Arizona has shown signs of life on offense. The Cats have scored 27 points or more in five of seven Pac-12 games. Colorado has scored 27 points once, in a loss at home to Washington State.
Arizona 37, Colorado 20

No. 79 Hawaii at No. 62 Nevada
Nevada, at 3–0 in the league, controls its own destiny in the Boise State-less WAC. The Wolf Pack’s two toughest tests are in the next two weeks, both at home — Hawaii and Louisiana Tech.
Nevada 41, Hawaii 34

No. 82 UL-Lafayette at No. 66 Arkansas State
Arkansas State, winners of six straight, can all but wrap up their first Sun Belt title and a trip to the New Orleans Bowl with a win over UL-Lafayette. This is the game of the year in the Sun Belt.
Arkansas State 31, UL-Lafayette 24

No. 67 Wyoming at No. 69 Air Force
Wyoming followed up its upset at San Diego State with a respectable 31–20 loss to TCU. The Cowboys now head to Air Force to play a team that is a surprising 1¬–3 in league play.
Wyoming 24, Air Force 23

No. 68 San Diego State at No. 111 Colorado State
It’s been a struggle for the Rams this season. CSU is 3–5 overall, but one win came against New Mexico and the other vs. Northern Colorado. Steve Fairchild’s job could be in jeopardy.
San Diego State 31, Colorado State 20

No. 70 Louisiana Tech at No. 86 Ole Miss

Ole Miss steps out of conference this week in the first game since the school announced that Houston Nutt will not be back next year. Louisiana Tech will be a tough test. The Bulldogs have won four straight and are coming off an impressive 41–21 win at Fresno State.
Louisiana Tech 24, Ole Miss 21

No. 75 East Carolina at No. 97 UTEP
Twice this season, UTEP has scored 37 points or more and lost — at Houston (49–42) and last week at Rice (41–37). The Miners will have to score at least 40 to win this weekend.
UTEP 41, East Carolina 40

No. 96 San Jose State at No. 78 Utah State
Finally, after a season of heartache, Utah State won a close game, edging Hawaii, 35–31, on the road. The Aggies’ two previous wins were by 34 points and 44 points, while their five losses were all by 10 points or less.
Utah State 31, San Jose State 20

No. 118 FAU at No. 92 FIU
FAU is one of two winless teams in the nation (New Mexico is the other). The Owls will still be winless after this weekend.
FIU 27, FAU 10

No. 98 Fresno State at No. 110 New Mexico State
Fresno State is 17–0 in this series, including a 6–0 mark since New Mexico State joined the WAC. The pain, however, is about to end for the Aggies.
New Mexico State 34, Fresno State 31

No 99 North Texas at No. 108 Troy
Troy’s demise has been one of the biggest surprises in college football this season. The Trojans dropped to 2–6 overall last week with a 42–14 loss at Navy.
North Texas 33, Troy 21

No. 103 Buffalo at No. 104 Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan came up just short last week in its attempt to get that elusive sixth win, falling to Ball State, 33–31 at home. Now Buffalo, a team that has only one win vs. FBS competition, comes calling. Take the artists formerly known as the Hurons.
Eastern Michigan 27, Buffalo 24

No. 113 Middle Tennessee at No. 105 UL-Monroe
UL-Monroe is 2–7 overall, but three of the Warhawks’ last four losses have come by five points or less. This team is better than its record indicates.
UL-Monroe 34, Middle Tennessee 26

No. 106 UNLV at No. 120 New Mexico
At one point, this looked like a decent opportunity for New Mexico to pick up its first win of the season. But UNLV is playing relatively well of late. The Rebs beat Colorado State, 38¬–35, two weeks ago, and hung around with Boise State for a half last week.
UNLV 41, New Mexico 17

No. 109 UAB at No. 116 Memphis
This is not Conference USA at its finest. Both of these teams are bad — really bad.
Memphis 21, UAB 20

No. 114 Kent State at No. 119 Akron
Kent State is actually playing pretty well of late. The Golden Flashes have won two straight, beating Bowling Green and Central Michigan at home. Akron is searching for its first win vs. an FBS foe this season. The search continues.
Kent State 13, Akron 10

Last week — 33–17
Season — 414–101

Teaser:
<p> Showdown in the Pac-12 between Oregon and Stanford headlines the college football schedule.</p>
Post date: Friday, November 11, 2011 - 07:00
Path: /college-football/college-football-predictions-10-key-games-week-11
Body:

By Mitch Light (@AthlonMitch)

Here are previews and predictions for the 10 best college football games this weekend.

Oregon (+3.5) at Stanford
It’s the game of the year in the Pac-12, featuring two of the most statistically dominant teams in the nation. Stanford is 9–0 and has won those nine games by an average of 31.7 points. The Cardinal are balanced on offense and do a great job stopping the run (third in the nation). Oregon has won eight straight (all by 14 points or more) since opening the season with a 40–27 loss to LSU. The Ducks survived an injury to All-America tailback LaMichael James, who missed two full games with a dislocated elbow. James was at his best in last weekend’s 34–17 win at Washington, rushing for 156 yards on 25 carries. It’s dangerous to put too much stock in a game that was played last season, but Oregon’s speed overwhelmed Stanford in the Ducks’ 52–31 win in Eugene last fall. Stanford’s incredible run of 17 straight wins — all but two decided by 10 points or more — is in serious jeopardy.
Oregon 37, Stanford 31

TCU (+15) at Boise State
It’s the one and only meeting between TCU and Boise State as members of the Mountain West Conference. TCU is bolting for the Big 12 in 2011, and Boise State is potentially headed to the Big East. The Broncos are No. 5 in the BCS standings but are still a long shot to play for the national title. Their schedule, always an issue, is even weaker than usual. TCU is having a solid season at 7–2 overall and 4–0 in the MWC, but the Horned Frogs have clearly taken a few steps back in 2011. They don’t really have a quality win, and their two losses have come against teams (Baylor and SMU) not ranked in the top 25. The usually dominant TCU defense is giving up an average of 22.3 points, an increase of more than 10 per game from last season.
Boise State 37, TCU 24

Virginia Tech (-1) at Georgia Tech (Thu)
Virginia is still in the picture, but the winner of the Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech showdown on Thursday night will likely represent the Coastal Division in the ACC Championship Game. The Yellow Jackets recovered from a two-game losing streak by upsetting previously unbeaten Clemson, 31–17, two weeks ago. The option attack, which had been held in check in losses to Virginia and Miami, rolled up 443 total yards vs. the Tigers. Virginia Tech is also coming off a bye week. The Hokies struggled with Duke last time out, but prior to that had been playing their best football of the season. They feature an emerging star at quarterback in Logan Thomas and an established star at tailback in David Wilson. Georgia Tech has struggled to stop the run at times this season. That will be an issue on Thursday night.
Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 22

Michigan State (-3) at Iowa
Both teams control their own destiny in the Big Ten Legends Division. Just two weeks ago, Iowa did the unthinkable — lose to a Minnesota team that had lost its first three league games by a total of 110 points. But the Hawkeyes responded with an impressive 24–16 win over Michigan in Iowa City last weekend. Marcus Coker continues to shine for Kirk Ferentz’s club; the sophomore has rushed for at least 120 yards in each of the last four games and currently ranks sixth in the nation in rushing. Stopping Coker will be the top priority for the Spartans. Michigan State boasts some gaudy defensive numbers — No. 2 in the nation in total defense, No. 8 in scoring defense — but has not been as stout in recent weeks. Minnesota had Big Ten-season highs of 415 yards and 24 points in a 31–24 loss to MSU East Lansing on Saturday.
Iowa 24, Michigan State 17

Auburn (+13) at Georgia
Winners of seven straight games, Georgia can take a giant step toward its first SEC East title since 2005 with a win over Auburn Saturday afternoon. The Bulldogs are one game up on South Carolina and have two league games remaining — Auburn and Kentucky, both at home. Georgia will be at close to full strength, with running backs Isaiah Crowell and Carlton Thomas back from a one-game suspension and wide receiver Malcom Mitchell expected to return from a hamstring injury (though Richard Samuel remains out with an ankle injury). Auburn is 4–2 in league play but is likely headed for a fourth-place finish in the powerful SEC West. Cllint Mosely has played well at quarterback in his two starts, completing 24-of-35 passes for 305 yards in a loss at LSU and win vs. Ole Miss. He will have to play well to give the Tigers an opportunity to win in Athens.
Georgia 24, Auburn 20

Nebraska (-3.5) at Penn State
The national spotlight is on Penn State this weekend — and not because the Nittany Lions are 8–1 overall and 5–0 in the Big Ten. We have no idea how the players will deal with the firing of Joe Paterno, but the guess here is that we won’t see Penn State at its finest this week. It’s a shame, too, because this team is all alone in first place in the Leaders Division, two games up in the loss column on Ohio State and Wisconsin. Nebraska was in control of the Legends Division until Saturday’s loss at home to Northwestern. Now, the Huskers are in a four-team logjam and will need help to win the division. Getting a win in Happy Valley will certainly help the NU’s cause.
Nebraska 20, Penn State 10

Miami (Fla.) (+9) at Florida State
Florida State has played very well over the past month, winning four straight games by an average of 28.8 points. Unfortunately for the Seminoles, they lost three straight prior to this four-game hot streak. So, once again, a season that began with promise will fall short of expectations. Yes, FSU is still alive in the Atlantic Division, but for the Noles to reach the title game, they will need Clemson to lose its final two games (vs. Wake Forest, at NC State) and for Wake to lose at home to Maryland. Miami played its way out of the Coastal Division race with a shocking loss at home to Virginia two weeks ago. So, for the seventh time in seven years, we will not have a Florida State vs. Miami showdown in the ACC Championship Game.
Florida State 24, Miami 22

Texas A&M (-4.5) at Kansas State
What does Kansas State need to do to get some respect from the boys in Vegas? The Wildcats are 7–2 overall, with the two losses coming to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, yet find themselves as a 4.5-point underdog at home to a Texas A&M team that is 5–4 overall and has lost two straight games. I was a non-believer earlier in the year and picked against Kansas State in four straight games — and I lost four straight times. I’m on the Collin Klein bandwagon now. The Cats haven’t quite mastered the forward pass yet — they rank 112th in the nation in passing — but they rank 18th in rushing with 217.2 yards per game. K-State will have to score some points to beat Texas A&M. For all of the Aggies’ issues, this team still knows how to move the football.
Kansas State 37, Texas A&M 34

Washington (+11.5) at USC
Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian, who were co-offensive coordinators at USC under Pete Carroll, meet as head coaches for the second time. Last year, Sarkisian and the Huskies edged USC, 32–31, at the Coliseum on a 32-yard field goal by Erik Folk at the buzzer. This year, the two teams meet in L.A. once again. USC, led by quarterback Matt Barkley and a host of talented receivers, has been on a tear offensively in recent weeks. That’s a bad sign for Washington, which ranks 101st in the nation in scoring defense. The Huskies are potent on offense — led by quarterback Keith Price and tailback Chris Polk — but there is no indication that they are good enough on defense to slow down USC enough to win this game.
USC 35, Washington 24

Texas (-1) at Missouri
Just when you thought that Missouri had righted the ship — after an overtime win at Texas A&M — the Tigers gave up an astounding 686 yards of total offense in a 42–39 loss at Baylor. Mizzou dropped 27 spots in the national total defense rankings in one week, from 62nd to 89th. That is very hard to do this late in the season. Now, Texas comes calling, fresh off an impressive 52–20 win vs. Texas Tech. David Ash is getting most of the snaps at quarterback, but the Longhorns are leaning heavily on their running game. Against Texas Tech, the Horns rushed for 439 yards and attempted only nine passes. This will be a huge test for the struggling Mizzou defense.
Texas 33, Missouri 24

Last week — 6-4 (4-6 vs. spread)
Season — 65–33 (50–48–2 vs. spread)

Teaser:
<p> Stanford and Oregon meet for supremacy in the Pac-12 North.</p>
Post date: Thursday, November 10, 2011 - 05:00
Path: /college-football/just-stanford-really-really-good
Body:

By Mitch Light

Stanford lost its final three games of the 2008 season. Needing only one win to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2001, the Cardinal lost consecutive games to Oregon, USC and Cal by an average of 16.7 points.

Standing on the sideline that season was a true freshman by the name of Andrew Luck. A 5-star recruit from Houston, Luck chose the Cardinal over Northwestern, Rice and Purdue. “Stanford has great tradition,” Luck told the Houston Chronicle at the time of his commitment. “I hope to help them get back to the top of the Pac-10, where they belong.”

Well, I think it’s safe to say that Luck has succeeded on that front. Stanford, which hosts Oregon this Saturday in the West Coast version of the Game of the Century, is sitting at the top of the Pac-12. Since Luck was inserted into the starting lineup — in Week 1 of the ’09 season — Stanford is an amazing 29–6 overall and 21–4 in league play. With Luck leading the way, the SU offense has scored 30 points or more in 29 of its last 35 games.

This season, the Cardinal’s numbers are simply astounding:

• They are outgaining their opponents by an average of 181.8 yards per game. In league play, that number jumps to 190.1.

• They lead the Pac-12 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.

• They are one of only three teams in the nation that is averaging over 220 yards passing and 220 yards rushing. (Wisconsin and Missouri are the other two).

• They are 5–0 on the road and have won those five games by an average of 24 points.

• They have given up more than 19 points only one time.

• They have allowed only eight plays of 30 yards or more.

• They are completing 53.4 percent on third down, tied for fourth-best in the nation.

• They have scored on all 52 trips inside the Red Zone and are the only team in the country with a 100 percent success rate.

Okay, you get it: Stanford is pretty good.

The one knock on the Cardinal has been the strength of schedule. Only one of their nine wins has come against a team currently ranked in the AP top 25 (USC) and only two other teams on their schedule (UCLA and Washington) have winning records.

That’s what makes this week’s showdown with Oregon so interesting. There are those (i.e. SEC fans) who still question whether Stanford has the talent and athleticism to beat one of the nation’s truly elite teams. Last year, the Cardinal jumped out to a 21–3 lead over the Ducks in Eugene but were overwhelmed by Oregon’s speed and were outscored 48–10 in the final three quarters.

Now, the Cardinal has another shot at the mighty Ducks, this time in Palo Alto, where they haven’t lost in nearly two calendar years. And this edition of the Oregon Ducks, while still strong, isn’t quite as strong as the team that played in the national title game a year ago. The offensive numbers for Chip Kelly’s club are similar to last season, but the Ducks aren’t quite as formidable on defense in 2011, especially against the run.

Stanford will be on a national stage on Saturday night. This team is still very much alive in national title chase. Luck and the Cardinal offense should be able to score plenty of points. It will be up to the defense, which gave up 626 total yards in this game last year, to slow down the Oregon attack.

AROUND THE PAC-12

• Utah has won two straight in league play after opening its first season in the Pac-12 with an 0–4 record. And with a relatively soft remaining schedule — UCLA, at Washington State, Colorado — don’t be surprised if the Utes end their inaugural Pac-12 campaign with a winning conference record.

• Oregon State is 3–8 in its last 11 Pac-12 games dating back to last season.

• The top three runners in the league, on a yards-per-carry basis, all play for Oregon — De’Anthony Thomas (8.5), LaMichael James (8.0) and Kenjon Barner (6.75).

• Washington State sophomore Marquess Wilson is closing in on his second straight 1,000-yard season. He had 1,006 on 55 catches as a freshman and currently has 974 on 59 catches with three games remaining.

• Washington quarterback Keith Price was held to 143 yards passing despite throwing the ball 35 times in the Huskies’ 34–17 loss to Oregon. Price’s previous low in Pac-12 play was 226 yards in a win at Utah.

• Just under 40 percent of Keenen Allen’s 1,074 receiving yards have come on third down. The sophomore from Cal has converted 19 of his 22 catches on third down into a first down.

• Colorado has given up 42 points or more in all but one Pac-12 game.

Teaser:
<p> Andrew Luck has led the Cardinal to the top of the Pac-12</p>
Post date: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 - 10:55
Path: /college-football/post-mortem-game-century
Body:

By Mitch Light

We’ve all seen the game by now. Some have called it a classic. Others say it was disappointing due to a lack of offense. We can all agree, however, that there were some serious athletes on the field Saturday night in Tuscaloosa.

LSU won the game, 9–6 in overtime, but one game isn’t a large enough sample size to determine which team is better. The Tigers are ranked No. 1, and obviously deserve the top spot, but if these two teams played 10 times on a neutral field, my guess is that each team would win five games.

Predictably, there has been a ton of commentary on the game and whether or not we will see a rematch in the national title game. Here are a few things that I’ve heard that just don’t add up.

The offenses aren’t any good.
My response:
Alabama and LSU struggled on offense on Saturday night because they were playing each other. Keep in mind that both teams are averaging just a shade under 40 points in all games not involving the two best defenses in the nation. Alabama scored 27 points in Week 2 at Penn State — the most any team has scored on the Nittany Lions this season. The Tide also scored 38 points on Arkansas and Florida, 52 against Ole Miss, 37 against Tennessee and 34 against Vanderbilt. LSU has been equally as potent, scoring 35 points or more in all but two games this season — 19 in Week 3 against Mississippi State and nine vs. Alabama. I wouldn’t put these teams in the same class as Oregon, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, but both Alabama and LSU are very good on offense, and the numbers back it up.

Jarrett Lee is a bad quarterback
My response: Lee had a bad first half against a ferocious defense and wasn’t given the opportunity to atone for his mistakes. Through the first eight games of his senior season Lee was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the nation. He was fortunate to play with a tremendous supporting case, but there is no denying that Lee was playing very well — good enough to lead the SEC in passing efficiency and quarterback a team to an 8–0 start. Simply not playing well against Alabama doesn’t make you a bad quarterback. Arkansas’ Tyler Wilson, a legitimate NFL prospect and the triggerman of a top-10 passing attack, struggled in a 38–14 loss to the Tide in September. Is Wilson a bad quarterback? Didn’t think so. Neither is Lee.

Alabama’s special teams were a disaster
My response:
Alabama missed four field goals, but most people seem to forget that all four kicks were from 44 yards or longer, including two from 50-plus yards. Sure, it would be nice if Alabama had a kicker capable of hitting from long range, but it wasn’t a special teams disaster, as many have indicated. The staff rolled the dice and attempted several long kicks, and it didn’t work out in most instances, though Alabama did make one from 46 yards. The Tide performed well in other areas on special teams, netting 39.5 yards on two punts and averaging 24.5 yards on two kickoff returns.

Other thoughts from the Game of the Century:

• It is amazing that Alabama only punted two times in a game in which it scored only six points.

• Was it a catch or an interception? After watching the replay a dozen times, I still can’t tell if Michael Williams or Eric Reid caught the ball. If I had to say, I would go with Williams, but the officials ruled that Reid intercepted the pass, and there wasn’t enough on replay to overturn the call.

• Morris Claiborne is a better cornerback than Tyrann Mathieu — he just doesn’t have a cool nickname or recover as many fumbles.

• Michael Ford is really good. Ford was the talk of the spring two years ago, but he only carried the ball 45 times for 244 yards as a redshirt freshman. Spencer Ware has received the bulk of the work in 2011, but Ford has been far more productive on a per-carry basis, averaging 5.7 per rush compared to 3.8 for Ware. My guess is that we are about to see more of Ford.

Around the SEC

• Vanderbilt wide receiver Jordan Matthews has caught 15 passes for 321 yards the past two weeks, against Arkansas and Florida. In the first seven games, he caught a total of eight for 117 yards. Matthews leads the league in yards per catch at 19.0.

• Over the last three seasons, South Carolina has allowed an average of 39.3 points to Arkansas. In all other regular-season SEC games, the Gamecocks have allowed an average of 19.0 points.

• Auburn’s Michael Dyer leads the SEC with five rushes of 40 yards or more.

• Florida’s John Brantley isn’t regarded as one of the SEC’s top quarterbacks, but he does lead the league in one key stat — yards per attempt (8.5).

• AJ McCarron has converted 35 of his 71 passing attempts on third down into first downs, the highest percentage (.492) in the SEC.

• The top four teams in the SEC West (LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn) are a combined 8–0 vs. the SEC East. Mississippi State and Ole Miss are a combined 1–5.

• South Carolina has scored a touchdown on 21 of 28 trips inside the Red Zone, for an SEC-best 75 percent success rate. Interestingly, none of the Gamecocks’ 28 trips have ended with a field goal. They are the onlyteam in the nation without a field goal off of a Red Zone trip.
 

Teaser:
<p> Alabama's special teams aren't bad. Jarrett Lee is still a solid quarterback. These teams do know how to play offense.</p>
Post date: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 - 10:46
Path: /college-football/college-football-predictions-every-game-week-10
Body:

By Mitch Light (@AthlonMitch)

Here's a look at every game of the Week 10 college football schedule.

Friday

No. 20 USC at No. 94 Colorado
There are no moral victories at USC, but the Trojans played extremely well in last Saturday’s overtime loss to Stanford. Lane Kiffin’s team is tough to defend right now.
USC 41, Colorado 7

No. 112 Central Michigan at No. 115 Kent State
Kent State broke through with its first win over an FBS opponent this season, beating Bowling Green 27–15 at home. The Golden Flashes, however, still rank 120th in the nation in total offense and 119th in scoring offense (up from 120th last year).
Central Michigan 20, Kent State 10

Saturday

No. 2 LSU at No. 1 Alabama
Here’s an interesting stat. Both Alabama and LSU have played six games vs. BCS competition. In those six games Trent Richardson has outrushed Spencer Ware by almost 300 yards on only three more attempts. Richardson has 785 yards on 125 carries for a 6.3-yard average, while Ware has 492 yards on 122 carries for a 4.0-yard average. Ware is good. Richardson is better — much better.
Alabama 24, LSU 17

No. 14 Kansas State at No. 3 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State gives up plenty of yards — over 450 per game — but The Pokes are only allowing 26.2 points per game in Big 12 action. It’s tough to see K-State doing enough on offense to keep this close.
Oklahoma State 41, Kansas State 21

No. 4 Boise State at No. 108 UNLV
UNLV has scored 17 points or less in each of its five losses and 38 or more in its two wins. It won’t matter how much the Rebels’ offense scores this week. Boise State will win big.
Boise State 48, UNLV 13

No. 5 Stanford at No. 75 Oregon State
For the first time since last Nov. 13, Stanford won a game by less than 25 points. Won’t happen this week.
Stanford 41, Oregon State 13

No. 6 Oregon at No. 26 Washington
The Ducks are 5–0 in league play but are about to face their three most difficult Pac-12 opponents — Washington, Stanford and USC. The burning question in Eugene is who will be taking the snaps this week for Oregon — Darron Thomas or Bryan Bennett? The smart money is on Thomas.
Oregon 34, Washington 31

No. 24 Texas A&M at No. 7 Oklahoma
Oklahoma laid an egg two weeks ago at home to Texas Tech but bounced back in fine fashion, drilling previously undefeated Kansas State, 58–17, in Manhattan. Sooners quarterback Landry Jones has been on a tear and figures to put up big numbers on the Texas A&M defense.
Oklahoma 38, Texas A&M 24

No. 15 South Carolina at No. 8 Arkansas
South Carolina controls its own destiny in the SEC East, but the Gamecocks still have several hurdles to climb before they can plan a return visit to the Georgia Dome. This trip to Arkansas figures to be a significant challenge.
Arkansas 27, South Carolina 17

No. 55 Northwestern at No. 9 Nebraska
Northwestern should be able to score some points, but the Wildcat defense will struggle to stop the Huskers’ rushing attack.
Nebraska 41, Northwestern 23

No. 90 Minnesota at No. 12 Michigan State
Minnesota lost its first three Big Ten games by a combined 120 points but somehow, some way, beat Iowa last week, 22–21. The streak will be snapped at one.
Michigan State 37, Minnesota 13

No. 61 Purdue at No. 13 Wisconsin
The Badgers have suffered back-to-back excruciating losses on the road. They return home this week and figure to take out their frustration on Purdue.
Wisconsin 41, Purdue 17

No. 16 Arizona State at No. 51 UCLA
UCLA is 4–4 overall and has lost its last three games by an average of 30.3 points. The Bruins gave up 254 yards rushing to an Arizona team that was averaging 71.8 yards on the ground. They don’t have a win vs. a team with a winning record. Yet, UCLA finds itself still very much alive in the Pac-12 South Division.
Arizona State 27, UCLA 20

No. 110 New Mexico State at No. 17 Georgia
Georgia’s starting running back this week is sophomore Brandon Harton, who has 11 career carries, all against Coastal Carolina.
Georgia 41, New Mexico State 7

No. 18 Michigan at No. 54 Iowa
We all know the transitive property doesn’t work too well in sports, but let’s take a look at how both of these teams fared against Minnesota. Michigan beat the Gophers 58–0. Iowa lost to the Gophers 22–21. So, do we think the Wolverines are going to win by 59 points? Not likely, but Michigan should win the game — even on the road.
Michigan 27, Iowa 21

No. 35 Texas Tech at No. 22 Texas
Texas Tech was good enough to win at Oklahoma one week and lose at home, 41–7, to Iowa State the next week. Good luck trying to figure out what the Red Raiders will do this Saturday.
Texas 24, Texas Tech 17

No. 100 Indiana at No. 23 Ohio State
Last week, the Indiana defense came within one passing yard of giving up 300 yards rushing and passing to Northwestern in a 59–38 loss at home.
Ohio State 40, Indiana 10

No. 25 Houston at No. 107 UAB
Houston quarterback Case Keenum has thrown 32 touchdown passes. UAB, as a team, has scored 13.
Houston 48, UAB 17

No. 27 Notre Dame at No. 42 Wake Forest
Notre Dame bounced back from a difficult loss to USC with a very impressive 56–14 win over a Navy team that had defeated the Irish in its last two trips to South Bend. Now, ND heads to Winston-Salem for the first-ever meeting between these two schools.
Notre Dame 35, Wake Forest 22

No. 28 Cincinnati at No. 50 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh was dealt a big blow last week when Ray Graham, who was 10th in the nation in rushing, was lost for the season with an injury. Former Wisconsin Badger Zach Brown will step in as the starting tailback for Pittsburgh, but the offense will not be the same without Graham.
Cincinnati 28, Pittsburgh 17

No. 64 Louisville at No. 29 West Virginia
Louisville is playing better of late, but the Cardinals lack the firepower on offense to beat West Virginia in Morgantown.
West Virginia 30, Louisville 17

No. 66 Duke at No. 31 Miami (Fla.)
Duke has lost two straight, at home to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, by a combined five points. The Blue Devils now need to win three of their final four games to become bowl-eligible.
Miami (Fla.) 30, Duke 20

No. 33 Southern Miss at No. 69 East Carolina
East Carolina has taken advantage of a soft slate in recent weeks (Memphis, Navy, Tulane) to even its record at 4–4. The Pirates, however, are 0–4 vs. teams with a winning record.
Southern Miss 31, East Carolina 30

No. 34 Missouri at No. 36 Baylor
Baylor is having little trouble moving the football, but yards haven’t been translating into big numbers on the scoreboard in recent weeks. The Bears averaged only 26 points against A&M and O-State despite rolling up 1,102 total yards. This one will be highly entertaining.
Missouri 41, Baylor 38

No. 37 TCU at No. 70 Wyoming
Wyoming is very quietly 5–2 overall and 0–2 in the MWC, and is coming off an impressive 30–27 win at San Diego State. TCU, however, will be an even bigger challenge — even in Laramie.
TCU 27, Wyoming 21

No. 38 North Carolina at No. 57 NC State
There’s been a nice war of words in the media this week between UNC interim head coach Everett Withers and NC State boss Tom O’Brien. Always adds spice to an already heated rivalry.
NC State 27, North Carolina 24

No. 92 Kansas at No. 39 Iowa State
Kansas has allowed its opponents to reach the Red Zone 50 times in eight games, the worst in the nation. Alabama has allowed its opponent to reach the Red Zone nine times.
Iowa State 41, Kansas 17

No. 53 Vanderbilt at No. 40 Florida
The Commodores lead the SEC in offensive plays of 30-plus yards (22) and 40-plus yards (13). They will need this trend to continue to pull off the upset in the Swamp. This one should be tight.
Florida 27, Vanderbilt 24

No. 43 Virginia at No. 81 Maryland
Randy Edsall’s first season in College Park has been a disaster. Since beating a short-handed Miami team in Week 1, the Terps are 1–6, with the lone win coming vs. Towson.
Virginia 30, Maryland 17

Tennessee-Martin at No. 44 Mississippi State
The Bulldogs scored as many points last week in a 28–16 win over Kentucky as they had in their previous three SEC games.
Mississippi State 44, Tennessee-Martin 10

No. 114 Middle Tennessee State at No. 46 Tennessee
Tennessee has scored 12 points or less in each of its last four games. The Vols should have no problem putting points on the board this week.
Tennessee 48, Middle Tennessee 14

No. 52 South Florida at No. 47 Rutgers
South Florida was expected to contend in the Big East in 2011, but the Bulls are all alone in last place with an 0–3 record. That, however, is about to change.
South Florida 30, Rutgers 25

No. 49 Utah at No. 60 Arizona
Arizona is only 2–6 overall, but the Cats are a dangerous team. They beat UCLA, 48–12, two weeks ago and played relatively well last week in a 42–31 loss at Washington.
Arizona 33, Utah 20

No. 117 Tulane at No. 56 SMU
The Mustangs have lost two straight after their 3–0 start in league play. There is no shame in losing at Southern Miss or at Tulsa, but June Jones can’t like the fact that his team lost those games by a combined 65–10.
SMU 50, Tulane 10

No. 76 Washington State at No. 58 California
Washington State has lost four straight, but this is clearly a much-improved Cougar team. The Cougs have scored 21 points or more in six of eight games this season after hitting that mark only 10 times in the previous three seasons combined.
Washington State 30, California 27

No. 65 Syracuse at No. 79 Connecticut
Syracuse has been among the most inconsistent teams in the nation this year. Over the last three weeks, the Orange beat hapless Tulane on a field goal at the buzzer, defeated a very good West Virginia team by 26 points and then lost at Louisville by 17.
Syracuse 17, Connecticut 14

No. 67 Arkansas State at No. 118 FAU
The Owls have scored nine touchdowns in seven games. That makes it very tough to win.
Arkansas State 44, FAU 9

No. 120 New Mexico at No. 71 San Diego State
The Aztecs have lost two straight at home, by 13 to TCU and by three to Wyoming. They will not lose a third straight.
San Diego State 41, New Mexico 10

No. 109 Army at No. 72 Air Force
Air Force ended Navy’s seven-year hold on the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy last season. The Falcons can keep it in Colorado Springs for another year with a win over the Black Knights.
Air Force 28, Army 17

No. 106 Troy at No. 73 Navy
Both teams have been a disappointment: Navy is 2–6 and will need to win its final four games to become bowl-eligible for a ninth straight season. Troy is 2–5 overall, 1–3 in the Sun Belt and about to see its run of five-straight SBC titles end.
Navy 31, Troy 27

No. 80 Ole Miss at No. 85 Kentucky
Both teams are struggling, but Ole Miss has at least shown the ability to put points on the board in league play. The Rebs are averaging 14.8 points in five SEC games, while Kentucky is at 9.0 points through four games.
Ole Miss 20, Kentucky 14

No. 93 Utah State at No. 82 Hawaii
Utah State continues to lose close games. The Aggies are 2–5 and all five losses have been decided by 10 points or less, including three by four or less.
Hawaii 31, Utah State 27

No. 105 UL-Monroe at No. 83 UL-Lafayette
UL-Lafayette has won three straight in this Bayou State rivalry, and there is no reason to believe the Ragin’ Cajuns, who are a surprising 7–2, won’t extend the streak to four.
UL-Lafayette 27, UL-Monroe 22

No. 84 FIU at No. 95 at No. 95 Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers opened the season with four straight losses and responded with four straight wins, including two in overtime. Tailback Bobby Rainey has rushed for 100 yards or more in all but one game this season.
Western Kentucky 31, FIU 30

No. 88 Louisiana Tech at No. 86 Fresno State
The recent schedule hasn’t been too grueling, but Louisiana Tech has won three straight to even its record at 4–4. The Bulldogs are leaning heavily on tailback Lennon Creer, who rushed 31 times for 112 yards last week.
Louisiana Tech 30, Fresno State 27

No. 113 Idaho at No. 89 San Jose State
San Jose State has won three of its last five games after an 0–3 start. The Spartans are clearly on the right path with second-year coach Mike MacIntyre.
San Jose State 33, Idaho 13

No. 91 Ball State at No. 104 Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan, at 5–3, is one of the surprise teams in the nation. The Eagles are one win away from clinching their first non-losing season since 1995.
Eastern Michigan 21, Ball State 20

No. 96 UTEP at No. 98 Rice
UTEP has done a good job beating the teams it is supposed to beat (Stony Brook, New Mexico State, Tulane, Colorado State), and Rice is a team that the Miners should beat.
UTEP 31, Rice 28


Last week — 36–14
Season — 381–84

Teaser:
<p> LSU's trip to Alabama headlines the Week 10 action in college football.</p>
Post date: Friday, November 4, 2011 - 07:25

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