Betting Against the Spread: College Football Week 11 Picks

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Each week, Braden Gall offers his top picks of the week as well as every Top 25 game.

Betting Against the Spread: College Football Week 11 Picks

Like it or not, Las Vegas rarely gets it wrong, so tracking betting lines should always be a big part of each football weekend — even if there are no bets on the line. It took me a few weeks but I finally gained some ground last week thanks to Georgia, Minnesota and Auburn. I am going back to the SEC for my top pick this week.

2013 Record Against the Spread: 31-23-1 (3-1 last week)

Week 11 Picks of the Week:

Missouri (-14) at Kentucky
The Tigers have been consistently underrated throughout the season. Mizzou’s 7-1-1 record against the spread demonstrates this pretty clearly. Kentucky has yet to win in the SEC under Mark Stoops and simply doesn’t have enough good players to stay competitive with the Tigers. Could Gary Pinkel’s bunch be looking ahead to Ole Miss next week? Possibly. But Pinkel’s team also knows it controls its own destiny in the SEC East and won’t overlook anyone from here on out. Prediction: Missouri -14

BYU (+8) at Wisconsin
The Badgers consistently struggle with dual-threat quarterbacks and BYU’s Taysom Hill is one of the most explosive and talented in the nation. Additionally, this defense is physical and designed to stop a power rushing attack like Wisconsin's. BYU is extremely well coached, battled tested and head coach Bronco Mendenhall knows UW head coach Gary Andersen very well. He is 3-1 against Andersen in his career. The Badgers should still win but there is no reason to think this game won’t be close between two evenly matched teams. Prediction: BYU +8

Texas (-6.5) at West Virginia
The Longhorns lost to WVU last season at home but both teams are wildly different this year. Texas is staring at a 6-0 start in the Big 12 and has put itself into BCS bowl contention. But a win over the Mountaineers is a must. Defensively, this team is much improved under Greg Robinson, allowing just 40 total points in the last three games combined. West Virginia has won once since September and will struggle against a considerably more talented team. Prediction: Texas -6.5

Arizona State (-7) at Utah
The Sun Devils are cruising on offense, having scored at least 53 points in four straight Pac-12 games. Utah is much better at home than on the road but won’t have the offensive firepower to match Arizona State. Todd Graham knows this a must-win situation if he wants to keep his lead in the Pac-12 South so he will allow Taylor Kelly to air it out. Look for another 40-plus points from Sparky. Prediction: Arizona State -7

Week 11 Previews and Predictions: ACC | Big 12 Big Ten Pac-12 SEC

Top 25 Picks Against the Spread:

Note: games with FCS opponents won't be included each week

Top 25 GamesMitch LightBraden GallSteven LassanDavid Fox
No. 13 LSU (+12.5) at No. 1 Alabama
No. 2 Florida St (-35.5) at Wake Forest
No. 8 Missouri (-14) at Kentucky
No. 9 Auburn (-7.5) at Tennessee
Virginia Tech (+7) at No. 11 Miami
Kansas (+31) at No. 14 Oklahoma St
Mississippi St (+19.5) at No. 15 Texas A&M
No. 16 Fresno St (-10) at Wyoming
No. 19 UCLA (-2) at Arizona
Houston (+10.5) at No. 21 UCF
No. 22 Arizona St (-7) at Utah
No. 23 Notre Dame (-5) at Pitt
BYU (+8) at Wisconsin
Kansas St (+3) at No. 25 Texas Tech
Last Week:11-38-69-59-5
Year-To-Date:84-77-379-82-377-84-383-78-3

 

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