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Athlon predicts the weekend's biggest upsets.
The 2012 college football season has officially entered the home stretch. With bowl games officially around the corner, there's not much time for teams to get eligible or make up ground in a conference title race.
College Football's Week 13 Upset Predictions
David Fox (@DavidFox615): Duke (+6.5) over Miami
Remember a few weeks ago when it seemed the winner of this game would go to the ACC championship game? Me neither, but it happened. Then Duke lost three in a row to Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech. And Miami self-imposed a bowl ban. Certainly, this is a mismatch for Duke. The Blue Devils’ defense isn’t very good, and Miami can be explosive on offense. But there’s too much history of Miami flopping when the moment is right. I’m thinking of the 24-17 loss to Boston College to end last season. Or the 41-40 loss earlier this season to Virginia. With the ACC and bowl possibilities gone, this seems like a game tailor made for the ‘Canes to show up uninspired. Despite Duke's struggles the last three weeks, the Blue Devils are good enough to upset Miami. And with the guarantee of a winning season ahead of them, they have the motivation.
Steven Lassan (@AthlonSteven): Wisconsin (+3) over Penn State
With the Leaders Division title wrapped up, there’s very little for Wisconsin to play for in Week 13. However, I think the Badgers will escape Happy Valley with a win on Saturday. Considering this is the final home game for Penn State, there’s certainly an emotional edge for the Nittany Lions. But this matchup seems to slightly favor Wisconsin. The Badgers fell just short of knocking off Ohio State last week but all four of their losses this year are by seven points or less. Quarterback Curt Phillips also seems to be finding his rhythm under center, while running back Montee Ball will test a Penn State defense that won’t have linebacker Michael Mauti this week. Wisconsin hasn’t won in Happy Valley since 2003, but I think that streak ends and the Badgers head into the Big Ten Championship with a little momentum with a solid road victory.
Mitch Light (@AthlonMitch): Oklahoma State (+7.5) at Oklahoma
They aren’t in the national spotlight this season, but the Oklahoma State Cowboys are still scoring a ton of points. The Pokes have scored a total of 114 points in the last two weeks — wins over West Virginia and Texas Tech — and rank third nationally with 45.4 points per game. And they have done all of this while playing three quarterbacks. Junior Clint Chelf is expected to start this weekend, but both redshirt freshman J.W. Walsh and true freshman Wes Lunt are also available. Oklahoma has rebounded from its loss at home to Notre Dame by beating Iowa State, Baylor and West Virginia. The Sooners blew a late lead in Morgantown on Saturday but scored with 24 seconds remaining to claim a 50–49 win. Landry Jones broke his own school record by throwing for 554 yards, and he tied his own record with six touchdown passes. The Sooners would love to exact some revenge after losing in Stillwater 44–10 last December. Won’t happen. Take the Pokes on the road. Oklahoma State 41–37
Mark Ross: Ohio (+10.5) over Kent State
Even though Kent State has two more wins than Ohio and is headed to the MAC title game next week, I think a 10 1/2-point spread to begin with is entirely too much. For starters, it's not like Ohio is a "bad" team, as the Bobcats have eight wins of their own, including a season-opening victory at Penn State. They also are ranked 35th in the nation in total offense behind dual-threat quarterback Tyler Tettleton. While Kent State has 10 wins, including an impressive 35-23 win at Rutgers on Oct. 27, and hasn't lost a conference game, this is still a team that lost 47-14 to Kentucky. Don't forget Kentucky has just two wins on the season, its second coming last week courtesy of FCS member Samford. That said, these two teams are very similar in terms of statistics, so I see a much closer game than the spread predicts. On top of that, I think Tettleton and the Bobcats will be able to take advantage of what appears to be Kent State's defensive weakness - pass defense. The Golden Flashes are 113th in the nation in pass defense (286.5 ypg), while the Bobcats are averaging 233.6 yards per game through the air. Ohio has struggled recently, losing three out of its last four, but this is still a team that has a shot to win 10 games and would like nothing more than to make a final statement before the bowl selection process by beating a ranked (No. 23 in BCS standings, AP poll) Kent State team. I also think the Golden Flashes may be looking ahead to their MAC title game showdown next Friday with Northern Illinois. So between the motivation and letdown factors, I'm picking Ohio to come away with a hard-fought road victory over Kent State this Friday in Dix Stadium.
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