Can Kevin Sumlin lead the Aggies to a BCS bowl in 2013?
Texas A&M took the SEC by storm in his debut season, recording an 11-2 record and producing a Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Johnny Manziel.
After last year’s 11-win season, the Aggies are setting their goals even higher for 2013. Texas A&M is one of the top-10 contenders for the national title, and Manziel should be one of the frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy once again.
The schedule isn’t too daunting, but the rest of the SEC has a full offseason to study Texas A&M’s offense.
Can Kevin Sumlin and Johnny Manziel repeat last year’s win total?
The 2013 college football season is still over 100 days away, but it’s never too early to start talking predictions and expectations for each team going into 2013.
Athlon Sports’ college football top 25 countdown for 2013 is officially underway. To provide some insight into the selections and rankings for 2013, Athlon’s editors will be debating some of the hottest topics from the preseason throughout May.
Texas A&M ranks as Athlon's No. 9 team in the 2013 Top 25 countdown.
Will Texas A&M Match Last Season's Win Total in 2013?
David Fox (@DavidFox615)
On paper, I penciled in 10 regular season wins for Texas A&M, leaving the bowl game as a chance for No. 11. Clearly, the 11-win mark and perhaps an SEC title is possible for the Aggies, but A&M may have trouble matching last season. Nick Saban told the Dan Patrick Show last week that the preparations for Johnny Manziel is an “ongoing process.” In May. That’s a pretty scary thought. It seems when Alabama and Saban looks to rectify a past loss -- the rematch with Florida in the 2009 SEC championship game, the rematch with LSU for the 2011 national title -- the Tide rarely repeat the same mistakes. That’s just one team. The rest of the SEC is also playing catchup after Kevin Sumlin and Manziel ran all over the league. Some defensive coordinator is going to find something that works in the Aggies’ second season in the league. The Aggies have the potential to get back to the 11-win mark, but it’s going to be far more challenging the second time around.
Steven Lassan (@AthlonSteven)
Texas A&M was one of the SEC’s biggest surprises last season. But the Aggies go into 2013 with a bullseye on their back. Defenses in the conference now have a full season of gametape on quarterback Johnny Manziel, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is now the head coach at Texas Tech, and the defense must replace key contributors in defensive end Damontre Moore, linebackers Sean Porter and Jonathan Stewart and defensive backs Dustin Harris and Steven Terrell. Considering all of those factors, I think it will be difficult for Texas A&M to exceed last season’s 11 victories. However, it’s reasonable to expect the Aggies to at least match 2012’s win total.
The non-conference schedule should provide four victories, while SEC contests against Arkansas, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Missouri are likely wins. If that holds true, Texas A&M would be sitting at nine victories, needing to win two games out of this group: Alabama, at Ole Miss and at LSU and the bowl game. It’s likely the Aggies are headed into the bowl game with 10 victories and need a win to get to 11. If the defense makes strides this offseason, Texas A&M could exceed 11 wins, but I think it’s more likely this team finishes 11-2 or 10-3 overall.
Sean Lester, The Dallas Morning News, (@s_lester14)
The 2012 season at Texas A&M was spectacular for many reasons but most prominently because of all the swirling changes the A&M program was going through. Everything was new from coaches to jerseys and most importantly - the conference.
For the Aggies to win 11 games was more than a coupe, it was unthinkable entering the season.
The schedule will largely be in their favor in 2013, as Kevin Sumlin and Johnny Manziel try to expand on what they accomplished a season ago. But this time they will be marked by their expectations, not the newness that defined a season ago.
In order to win more than 11 games this year A&M doesn’t have to beat Alabama or LSU, while trying to take down both. Defeating one of them could put them in the SEC Championship game and beating both could mean a BCS national championship bid.
Winning 11 games is not only doable for this A&M team, it is very likely given the team’s favorable schedule. Behind the legs of Manziel, anything can happen for this A&M team. Something we’ve seen once before.
Last season the Aggies made their transition from the Big 12 to the SEC look fairly easy, as they went 6-2 in the conference and 11-2 overall, highlighted by an upset of eventual national champion Alabama in Tuscaloosa and routing Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. They have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in dynamic, dual-threat quarterback Johnny Manziel and one of the nation's most explosive offenses directed by its mastermind, Kevin Sumlin. What could possibly go wrong in 2013, right?
Not that I am predicting them to revert to a .500 or worse team, I do think Texas A&M is due for a bit more of an adjustment period in Year 2 in the SEC. First, for the Aggies to match last year's win total of 11 that means they have to win at least 10 in the regular season again. The non-conference schedule should be a breeze, but you know Alabama has got that Sept. 14 date at Kyle Field circled. Also, Manziel and company have a fairly difficult closing stretch to the regular season with Mississippi State at home and then a visit to Baton Rouge to play LSU, who defeated the Aggies at home last season, followed by the finale at Missouri. Yes, there is no Florida or Georgia or South Carolina from the SEC East on this schedule, but it's still the SEC and it's not like Texas A&M, or Manziel for that matter, is sneaking up on anyone this fall.
Also, don't overlook the fact that even though Manziel and several key offensive weapons, namely wide receiver Mike Evans and running backs Ben Malena and Trey Williams, are back, Texas A&M is having to replace five starters on offense and six on defense from last season's team. Those losses include left tackle Luke Joeckel, the second overall pick in April's NFL Draft, defensive end Damontre Moore (third round) and linebacker Sean Porter (fourth). That's a lot of talent for any team to lose, let alone one that's still new to the SEC.
Texas A&M will be a very good team in 2013 and should put plenty of points on the scoreboard. However, just as history has shown that the odds are pretty stacked against Manziel repeating as Heisman winner, I think the Aggies will be hard-pressed to match last season's 11 wins. Then again it's not like a 10-3 or even 9-4 campaign, especially in the SEC, is anything to be ashamed about, right?
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