You can’t count on Santonio Holmes. You never know what you’re going to get out of Plaxico Burress. The same can be said for tight end Dustin Keller, but he’s the one with the likelihood of success for the New York Jets in Week 14 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s a process of elimination play, but the chances of New York QB Mark Sanchez’s arm beating Kansas City corners Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr to get the ball to Holmes and Burress is not as likely as it is to take advantage of a Chiefs team that’s been the second-worst team against fantasy tight ends the last five weeks.
Kansas City is the eighth-best team against fantasy receivers this season, the second-best the last five weeks and the best the last three weeks.
Against tight ends the last five weeks the Chiefs have allowed just 17 catches but have also allowed five touchdowns. This comes on the heels of three TDs allowed the first two weeks and none between Weeks 3 and 8.
Miami’s Anthony Fasano scored in Week 9 to go with two catches for 38 yards. Rookie Charles Clary also had three grabs for 50 yards. John Fox already rarely used a TE and with Tim Tebow at QB, it’s virtually non-existent. Needless to say, Denver was not a TE threat in Week 10. Stud TE Rob Gronkowski caught four balls for 96 yards and two scores in Week 11; Aaron Hernandez added four catches for 44 yards. Pittsburgh only targeted its tight ends three times in a 13-9 win against the Chiefs in Week 12. Chicago’s Kellen Davis had two catches for 40 yards last week in another low-scoring affair — a 10-3 win for Kansas City.
Now that your brain is flooded with what TEs have done against the Chiefs this season, particularly the last five weeks, here’s a look at what Keller’s done. He has been targeted at least six times in four of the five games and caught 19 of the 35 targets for 219 yards and two scores.
Meanwhile, the Jets are the seventh-worst in the league the last three weeks with their fantasy receivers, are 16th the last five weeks and 12th worst all season. In the same five games Keller has 219 yards and two scores, Holmes has 241 and three scores and Burress has 269 yards and two scores.
So none of the three are great starts — ever — but if the Chiefs continue to play as they have against receivers and as they have against tight ends and try to focus on stopping the running game of Shonn Greene, then Keller looks to be the one to have the bigger day of the three and is a decent reach play. If you are a victim of Fred Davis’ suspension, then Keller could be a good matchup play this week.
By Corby A. Yarbrough @Corby_Yarbrough on Twitter