Tampa Bay's running back could pay off big, but it's not likely
The running back situation in the NFL in Week 15 is pretty dire. Two of them have already played in Maurice Jones-Drew and Michael Turner, and they were certainly started in most leagues. And here we are for a Saturday night game, nationally televised by the NFL Network, with a decision to make about Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back LeGarrette Blount.
Starting Blount means there are two questions you have to ask yourself: Do you trust Blount? Do you trust that Bucs coach Raheem Morris will stick with him even in the likelihood that the Bucs will be down?
Tampa Bay has lost seven in a row and in those seven games Blount has cracked double digits in fantasy three times. In the four wins in six games before this losing streak, he cracked double digits twice, including his only 20-point game of the season against the last-place Colts. So five out of 11 games played he has double digits, six he doesn’t.
Plus, there is little margin for error when using Blount as there is a fumble issue that makes it an even smaller margin if your league takes away points for lost fumbles. Blount has fumbled nine times since entering the league last season and has lost six of them. Four of those fumbles, and three lost ones, have come in the last three games.
And now for the big HOWEVER.
The Cowboys are ranked 24th against fantasy running backs this season, and in seven games against sub-.500 teams Dallas has allowed an average of 74.7 yards rushing per game, 13.6 yards receiving per game on an average of 2.9 catches and four total TDs for an average of 13.7 fantasy points per game. Dallas is 6-1 in those games, winning by an average of 10.6 points.
So even in games the Cowboys are beating bad teams by 10.6 points, the high producers at RB of those teams are still collectively averaging 13.7 fantasy points.
I have Blount in a dynasty league and the only thing that gives me hope is he and the Bucs will be better in the near future; but as a week-to-week play he scares the daylights out of me. It’s said to forgive and forget in fantasy, but I cannot forgive the 1.9-point egg he laid against a terrible Carolina defense in Week 13 when the Bucs got down early and he had 11 carries for 19 yards. It came on the heels of back-to-back 100-yard games against the Packers and Titans when we had all but given up on Blount after three games of 34, 72 and 34 yards with no touchdowns. He bounced back with the 74-yard, goal line TD game last week for 12.5 fantasy points.
Again, it comes down to whether or not you trust Raheem Morris to continue to use Blount no matter what the score. If the numbers play out and you plan on using Blount as an RB3 or flex2, I would be happy with 13.7 points from that position in a playoff week. I’m just not sure I can go on that limb with a back that has burned me more than helped me,
By Corby A. Yarbrough @Corby_Yarbrough on Twitter