Who is the consensus No. 1 QB in the 2014 NFL Draft?
To win a Super Bowl, a team must play defense, must be able to run the ball in short yardage situations but, above all else, must have a good quarterback.
It’s why 13 of the last 16 NFL drafts have begun with a team selecting a signal-caller with the No. 1 overall pick. Some of those have been home runs (Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning), some have been total busts (JaMarcus Russell, David Carr) and others have yet to determine their legacy (Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford). But it’s clear what position is the most important.
NFL general managers know that the game begins and ends with a great quarterback. If your favorite team has a solid signal-caller then it has a chance to win big. If it doesn’t have a capable leader under center, well, then, it will be a long winter.
Of the 12 teams in the NFL playoffs a year ago, seven were QB-ed by a first-round pick. However, of the final four quarterbacks left standing, only one (Peyton Manning) was a first-rounder. Colin Kaepernick was a second-round pick, Russell Wilson was a third-rounder and Tom Brady was a sixth-round selection. And it was a third-round pick who is currently the defending Super Bowl champion.
Many believed that the 2014 quarterback class was going to be one of the best collections of prospects to enter the NFL Draft since the 2004 group that included the younger Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger (as well as J.P. Losman) all being selected in the first round. However, with more than a few big-time prospects — Brett Hundley, Braxton Miller, Marcus Mariota and Bryce Petty — all returning to college, the state of the 2014 QB draft class was thrown into chaos.
So when the 79th annual NFL Draft begins on May 8, there will be something for everyone when it comes to the quarterback position. There’s the short playmaker (Johnny Manziel, Aaron Murray), the massive jumbo passer (Blake Bortles, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas) and the consummate game-manager (Teddy Bridgewater, AJ McCarron, Tajh Boyd).
Opinions vary greatly on who is the best of this group and when they should be selected on draft weekend. So Athlon Sports has culled the world wide web for the best and most trusted NFL Draft opinions in an effort to sort out the 2014 quarterback class.
Here are the 12 rankings used to compile Athlon Sports' consensus QB rankings:
AS: Athlon Sports
CBS: CBS Sports
MK: Mel Kiper
TM: Todd McShay
BR: Bleacher Report
SN: Sporting News
PS: Phil Savage
Consensus 2014 NFL Draft QB rankings:
|3.||Johnny Manziel||Texas A&M||2||2||4||3||3||2||2||4||3||5||9||1|
|4.||Derek Carr||Fresno State||6||4||3||4||7||4||4||2||4||4||3||3|
|5.||Jimmy Garoppollo||E. Illinois||6||5||5||5||5||7||3||7||3||5||4|
|10.||Logan Thomas||Virginia Tech||7||8||8||8||9||10|
|11.||David Fales||San Jose State||10||10||10||9||6|
|14.||Connor Shaw||South Carolina||8|
|15.||Bryn Renner||North Carolina||10|
Inside Athlon’s Rankings
Collegiate success matters
The funny thing about great college players is that they are great players. There is a distinct trend with the AS rankings and that is college success. Names like Tajh Boyd, Aaron Murray and AJ McCarron are higher on our ranking than most because of success against the best competition this country has to offer. McCarron is arguably the most decorated and successful QB in SEC history while Murray is the most productive in SEC history. Both were elite recruits and played as such in the college ranks. Boyd falls into a similar category while competing against a slightly lower level of competition. That said, his height (6-1) and overall performance against Florida State and the SEC is why Murray and McCarron rank higher.
Leadership is "it"
Russell Wilson has it. Drew Brees has it. So, too, does Murray, McCarron, Boyd and South Carolina’s Connor Shaw. And none of those names were/will be first-round picks. Murray has been compared to Brees since leading his team to a state championship in Florida after breaking his leg in the same season. Shaw won’t ever be mistaken for a truly great NFL quarterback prospect due to his overall lack of size and arm polish, but most of the quarterbacks drafted this year will fizzle out of the league in short order. The key is to avoid taking one of the busts early. Shaw may not have much upside, but he has zero downside, is tough as nails and is a born leader. He is the winningest QB in the history of South Carolina football and he rarely turned the ball over. Those are two things coaches crave in a backup signal-caller.
Don’t fall for the measurables
The scouts who love Logan Thomas and Tom Savage clearly haven’t watched any college football. It’s not that these two prospects aren’t great athletes but they simply didn’t prove in college that they are pro passers. Thomas was a walking turnover and is responsible for the downturn of a program known for churning out 10 wins a season like clock work. Savage didn’t have much in the way of a supporting cast but he had plenty of chances at two schools to shine and never really developed. Don’t let their massive frames and huge arms hide the awful game tape both bring to the table. LSU’s Zach Mettenberger falls into this category somewhat as well.
The curious case of Zach Mettenberger
He’s huge, has a big arm, played against high-level competition, was an elite recruit and showed improvement in his final season. He also was consistently inaccurate, kicked out of school for multiple off-the-field incidents, never came close to winning a championship and had arguably the top WR tandem in the nation at his disposal in 2013. The risk doesn't match the reward.
Level of competition
David Fales, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppollo didn’t face anything resembling an NFL defense. These three QBs rarely faced quality defenses and when they did, it didn’t turn out well. Carr’s worst three games over the last two years came against USC, Boise State (2012) and Oregon — arguably the best three defenses he faced and Fresno went 0-3. Fales had a nice season under offensive whiz Mike MacIntyre in 2012 and then took significant steps back once his head coach moved to Colorado and San Jose State moved up in competition (WAC to MWC). Garoppollo posted huge numbers, but was in a pass-happy offense that most quarterbacks would excel within — especially, against that type of competition. Carr is easily the most talented of the lower-tiered trio but none appear worthy of a first-round grade.