The Chicago Bears (2-3) host the Washington Commanders (1-4) at Soldier Field for "Thursday Night Football." Here’s where the line currently stands.
- Moneyline: Commanders (+100) | Bears (-118)
- Spread: Commanders +1.5 (-110) | Bears -1.5 (-110)
- Total: 38.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Neither team is setting the world on fire this season, as is indicated by the game total of only 38.5. Chicago is favored by -1.5 indicating that in a vacuum the Commanders are considered the better team, as home teams generally are laying three points to their road opponents.
The home team Bears have scored an average of 17.2 points per game while keeping the ball mostly on the ground. The visiting Commanders have scored 18 points per game by keeping it mostly in the air. Chicago has logged the league’s fewest passing attempts, only 88, while Washington is third with 210.
Defensively, the Bears have been better than the Commanders allowing 21.2 points per game to opponents. The defense has allowed only four passing TDs to opposing QBs. However, the Bears have allowed a league-worst 50.7 percent conversion rate on third downs.
The Commanders have allowed 25.6 points per game while also allowing the second-most passing TDs (11) and the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts. This sets up to be a better game for Justin Fields than it does for Carson Wentz.
Speaking of Fields and Wentz, these two QBs seem to be heading in opposite directions. A lot was made of Ron Rivera’s comments this week suggesting that Wentz was not a difference-maker, though to be fair those comments were taken slightly out of context. Rivera has since walked the comment back, but it is concerning nonetheless.
Meanwhile, Fields finally had a decent game, passing for 208 yards and a TD, while also having a rushing touchdown rolled back on a ticky-tack block-in-the-back penalty. Fields finished the day with a 108.8 passer rating and vs. Washington's secondary he should be able to build on that momentum.
In all three games where the Commanders were the underdog, they lost and did not cover. The Bears have been favorites in only one game this season and they won and covered that spread.
Wentz has the better weapons with the versatile Curtis Samuel and Terry McLaurin, but I think this Bears defense can keep them in check. Chicago has allowed the ninth-fewest yards to opposing wideouts. Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, and Brian Robinson Jr. will be a good running back committee for the Commanders and they have a chance to make an impression as the Bears have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs this year.
Darnell Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Cole Kmet should all have decent showings vs. this generous Washington secondary. Look for David Montgomery to continue to lead this backfield and possibly find the end zone as the Commanders have allowed six TDs to opposing RBs across the first five contests.
This will be a close one, but I’ll take the home team to cover.
The Pick: Bears -1.5 (-110)