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Week 13 Bills-Patriots Odds, Spread and Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

An AFC East battle jumpstarts the NFL action in Week 13 where the Bills are listed as away favorites for their bout against the Patriots.

The New England Patriots (6-5) host AFC East division rival Buffalo Bills (8-3) for "Thursday Night Football" and kick off the NFL action in Week 13.

The Patriots are the home underdogs as the Bills are favored by 4.5 and the game total is set at 43.5.

Buffalo has won four of the last five head-to-head matchups, dating back to 2020, but this will be the first time the two have squared off this season. The Bills are currently tied record-wise with the Dolphins for first place in the division with the Patriots in last place, one game behind the New York Jets.

Bills-Patriots Odds, Spread, Total

  • Moneyline: Bills (-225) | Patriots (+188)
  • Spread: Bills -4.5 (-110) | Patriots +4.5 (-110)
  • Total: 43.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Buffalo has a clear advantage offensively, as mobile QB Josh Allen and his talented weapons which include Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, are averaging 6.3 yards per play this season and 28.1 points per game (second in the NFL). The Bills are logging 415 yards of offense per game while converting 51 percent of third downs and 54 percent of red-zone opportunities. The New England defense has been strong, though, allowing opponents only 18.4 points per game (sixth). While the Bills are averaging 3.1 TDs per game, the Patriots are allowing only 1.9.

The Patriots are currently led by Mac Jones who is a capable, if unspectacular, game manager. The run game has been good for New England, with Rhamondre Stevenson recently taking over the backfield, but the Patriots do not win games on the back of their strong offense. New England is averaging 5.4 yards per play and 21.7 points per game (18th). Buffalo is allowing only 18.4 points per game this year (sixth), though lately they have struggled vs. the pass, allowing 260 yards per game to opposing QBs. With star Buffalo LB Von Miller dealing with a knee injury, if Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, and DeVante Parker are all healthy, there could be a pathway to success for New England.

The Bills are 5-5 ATS.

The Patriots are 6-4-1 ATS.

The Bills are 5-5-1 ATS as the favorite.

The Patriots are 3-2 ATS as the home team.

Games have gone over five times for New England.

Games have gone over only three times for Buffalo.

Though Buffalo should win this one, I am not convinced the Bills can cover the spread. Allen has struggled of late, throwing multiple interceptions near or in the end zone, and they have won by a margin of only three points in three of their last four contests. The Patriots should be able to put up a defensive fight, so I’ll take New England to cover the spread.

The Pick: Patriots +4.5