Let’s break down the matchup and make a few wagers.
- Moneyline: Raiders (+260) | Chiefs (-333)
- Spread: Raiders +7 (-110) | Chiefs -7 (-110)
- Total: 51.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
The Raiders finally logged their first win last Sunday, defeating the Broncos 32-23 and covering the spread for the first time this season. The Raiders have gone over their points totals in 75 percent of their games this year.
The Chiefs, conversely, have gotten off to a strong start and are +350 to win the AFC behind only the Buffalo Bills. Chiefs games have gone over 50 percent of the time and they have covered half of their games. They were the favorite in three of those contests.
The addition of Davante Adams has boosted the Raiders' offense and despite having only a 1-3 record to show for it, the Raiders have scored the 10th-most points per game this season (24). Derek Carr has all of his weapons healthy this week, including Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. Josh Jacobs should continue to effectively lead the ground attack.
The Chiefs are off to a typically dominant start, with Patrick Mahomes already logging 1,100 yards and 11 passing TDs, despite losing Tyreek Hill. JuJu Smith-Schuster is questionable for this game, but it shouldn’t matter. Mahomes can make magic with any receiver on any given day and Travis Kelce remains an elite threat at tight end. The Chiefs are averaging the second-most points per game this year (32.3) behind only the Detroit Lions (no, that’s not a typo). Clyde Edwards-Helaire will lead the backfield and he has been a pleasant surprise for Chiefs fans this season.
Defensively, both teams have weaknesses. The Raiders have allowed an average of 25 points and 254 passing yards per game. Their run defense has allowed 113 rushing yards per game and two rushing TDs this year.
The Chiefs have allowed an average of 24 points per game, including 264 passing yards per game (27th in the NFL). The Chiefs have allowed 117 rushing yards and four TDs this year to opposing RBs.
On paper, these teams look evenly matched. Both QBs have plenty of weapons and both defenses are generous. But, in real life, if you’re matching up Derek Carr and Mahomes, there’s no question who you’re taking. Mahomes wins this one at home and covers the spread. This should be a high-scoring affair between the division rivals.