The NFL Week 10 finale is a fight between the first- and last-place teams in the NFC East. The Eagles (8-0) host the Commanders (4-5) at Lincoln Financial Field on Monday night and the league’s last undefeated team is a sizable favorite in the second meeting of the season for these division rivals.
Philadelphia, which has a 5-3 mark against the spread, is a 10.5-point favorite at home while Washington enters with a 4-4-1 record ATS. The Eagles have won their last three against the Commanders, including a 24-8 victory in September.
Commanders vs. Eagles Odds
Moneyline: Commanders (+375) | Eagles (-500)
Spread: Commanders +10.5 (-110) | Eagles -10.5 (-110)
Total: 43.5 Over (-118) | Under (+100)
Taylor Heinicke took over for an injured Carson Wentz at quarterback for Washington a few weeks ago and he’s gone 2-1 as the starter and nearly led an upset last time out against the Vikings. A middle-of-the-pack defense is propping up a bottom-10 offense (17.7 PPG) that found ways to win against the Bears, Packers and Colts — a three-game winning streak that turned the season around before the loss to Minnesota.
Washington struggles to run the ball with the two-headed backfield of Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson, who has come on over the last couple of games. Teams generally have been able to run the ball against the Eagles, though, who have an otherwise dominant defense. Philadelphia allows the fourth-fewest points per game (16.9) and third-fewest passing yards (177.6).
The Eagles lead the NFL in turnover differential (+15) and interceptions (12) and the Commanders have thrown nine picks this season, the second-most. Granted, six of those belong to Wentz, but Heinicke has coughed up the ball in every game he’s played this season.
Only the Chiefs score more points per game than the Eagles (28.1), who beat teams with a balanced passing and rushing attack led by Jalen Hurts. He threw for 340 yards (a season high) and three touchdowns in September against Washington in an uncharacteristically poor rushing game for his team. His top receiver in that game was DeVonta Smith, who he connected with eight times for 169 yards.
Hurts’ favorite targets this season have been offseason addition A.J. Brown, who has a team-high six receiving touchdowns, and tight end Dallas Goedert. On the ground, Miles Sanders is having a resurgent season as the team’s lead back and of course, Hurts kicks in a few extra yards on the ground per game and is a constant threat to score around the goal line.
For how good Philadelphia has been, remember it was tied with Houston at halftime on the road last week and though it came away with a 29-17 win, that didn’t cover the two-touchdown spread. The Eagles had a week and a half of rest between then and Monday to prepare to go for the sweep of their division foe. And after what was a disappointing start in Week 9, I think they get up on Washington early, refuse to let up and match last season’s win total before Thanksgiving in a dominant defensive showing.