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Colts vs. Broncos Odds and Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

Betting on the Broncos' and Colts' shortcomings will lead to profits in Week 5.

Week 5 action kicks off with the Denver Broncos (2-2) hosting the Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) for "Thursday Night Football." Both Denver and Indianapolis have underperformed expectations this season and both will be looking to get back on track after Week 4 losses.

If you’re looking to bet on this game, here is where the market currently stands:

  • Moneyline: Colts (+145) | Broncos (-175)
  • Spread: Colts +3.5 (-110) | Broncos +3.5 (-110)
  • Total: 43 Over (-110) | Under (-110)

From a betting perspective, both teams have covered the spread only 25 percent of the time, with the Colts going under their game totals in all four games. The Broncos have gone under their totals 75 percent of the time.

The Colts have, however, won the only game where they were the underdog, while the Broncos have been underdogs twice, logging the win once.

So not a lot of help there. We may have to do this one with a gut feeling.

Both teams recently suffered setbacks with their star running backs. Jonathan Taylor injured his ankle last week and was ruled out early Wednesday afternoon. The Broncos were not as lucky, losing Javonte Williams with a torn ACL for the season. Their running back room will now be led by Melvin Gordon with some combination of Mike Boone and Latavius Murray, who was just signed from the Saints’ practice squad.

Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson will both be tasked with moving the offense with less help from the ground game. That will be tough for both signal-callers, as both defenses have been strong vs. the pass. The Colts have allowed an average of 207.5 passing yards per game while the Broncos have allowed only 171.

Both teams are bottom three in points scored per game this season with the Broncos averaging 16.5 points per game and the Colts 14.3.

The Broncos have allowed 17 points per game this year while the Colts have allowed 23.

In a short week, this game certainly feels like an under.

I do think the home team has an advantage. Their defense is slightly better and we saw Wilson get back on track last week, using his mobility and also throwing a pair of passing touchdowns vs. a suspect Raiders secondary. With both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy as weapons, hopefully head coach Nathaniel Hackett will let Russ loose on Thursday.

Ryan also put up a fight last week throwing for 356 yards and two TDs vs. a weak Tennessee secondary. He’s finding rookie Alec Pierce more often as well as targeting all of his tight ends while Michael Pittman Jr. still remains the top dog in this offense.

What hangs me up here is the hook. I can’t buy 3.5 for Denver until I am sure Hackett knows how to coach a football team. The Broncos win this, but the Colts cover the spread.

PICK: 

Colts +3.5

Under 43