The final game of Week 4 is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game.
The Rams got the best of the 49ers in that one to advance to the Super Bowl. Right now though, neither of these NFC West squads are playing at the level that got them that far last postseason. That, along with the top-tier defensive talent for San Francisco and Los Angeles, is why this game has one of the lowest over/unders of the week (41.5).
Here are three prop bets I like for this Monday night showdown.
Jeff Wilson Jr. Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Wilson has topped this total in both games the 49ers have played in normal weather conditions. Excluding the rain game San Francisco played in Week 1 in Chicago, Wilson averages 15 carries per game for 79.5 yards. He’s topped this figure in back-to-back weeks with different game scripts — a runaway win against the Seahawks and a grind-it-out loss to the Broncos. That inspires a bit more confidence in trusting Wilson to make it three in a row with 58-plus yards. Wilson has a monopoly on the running back carries with rookie Tyrion Davis-Price out and he doesn’t need a massive workload to hit the over.
Tyler Higbee Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Higbee has been very involved in the Rams' passing game through three games. The tight end is second on the team in targets (24), catches (16), and receiving yards (171). And he’s also delivered with some consistency — Higbee has at least four catches and 39 yards in each game, not world-beating numbers but certainly respectable for a tight end. He went over this number just once in three tries last season against the 49ers, but I like him to log his third game in a row with 50-plus yards with a sizable workload.
Jimmy Garoppolo Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-120)
San Francisco is a narrow favorite at home in a game with a very low over/under of 41.5 and I don’t expect the game script to require Garoppolo to air the ball out 30-plus times. In his lone start this season, he threw for 211 yards against the Broncos in a low-scoring affair. Garoppolo did go over this number in two of three games against the Rams last season, and the one he didn’t was a home win in which the 49ers ran the ball 44 times compared with just 19 pass attempts. The scale may not be tilted that heavily, but I anticipate San Francisco, with one of the lowest passing rates in the league, to lean heavily on Wilson against L.A.