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Week 11 Odds and Bets: Packers Listed as Slight Favorites Over Titans

Green Bay is listed as a 1.5-point favorite for its matchup against Tennessee on Thursday night.

The first-place AFC South Tennessee Titans (6-3) square off with the Green Bay Packers (4-6) for "Thursday Night Footballat Lambeau Field.

The Packers are -1.5-point favorites at home, with the game total set at 41. Here is where the odds currently stand for Thursday’s matchup.

  • Moneyline: Titans (+150) | Packers (-175)
  • Spread: Titans +1.5 (-110 | Packers -1.5 (+110)
  • Total: 41 Over (-110) | Under (-110)

The Packers are coming off an upset win against the Cowboys but remain four wins behind the first-place Vikings in the NFC North.

I’m going to say right now, I won’t be betting on the Packers to cover the spread.

The Titans are a winning team despite scoring an average of only 18.4 points per game this year. Their offense runs through Derek Henry who has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in five of his last six games. Henry should have no trouble running all over a Green Bay defense that has allowed an average of 123 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.

Defensively, the Titans have been tough vs. the run, allowing only 66.6 rushing yards per game (second fewest) to opposing runners. That run defense has kept them competitive despite major flaws in their secondary that is allowing 294 passing yards per game. Tennessee has allowed opponents an average of 18.4 points per game this season.

The Packers have reigning, back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers passer has yet to find a replacement for Davante Adams. Any combination of receivers could pop off – or drop off  – this Thursday night. Rookie Christian Watson, veteran Allen Lazard, and perhaps even Randall Cobb should see some targets vs. this beatable Tennessee secondary. Aaron Jones and the run game for Green Bay will be difficult to get going vs. the tough Titans run defense.

The Packers are scoring an average of only 18.3 points per game this year, while the defense is allowing 21.3.

The Packers are 4-6 ATS (40 percent).

The Titans are 7-2 ATS (77.8 percent).

Game totals have gone over in four Packers games this year. The Titans' games have only gone over twice this year.

I’m not sure what oddsmakers are seeing that I don’t. Maybe they just have more faith in Rodgers than I do, but I’m happily taking the Titans plus the points. One game vs. the Cowboys didn’t convince me the Packers should be the favorites here.

The Pick:

Titans +3.5

Under 41