· Travis Etienne Jr. (Over 17.5 receiving yards) – 16.5
· Darnell Mooney (Over 45.5 receiving yards) – 43.5
· Christian Kirk (Under 65.5 yards) – 61.5
· Kyle Pitts (Over 47.5 yards) – 51.5
· Justin Fields (Over 178.5 passing yards) – 176.5
Here are five other player props I like this week:
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (Over 2.5 catches)
I lost with this play last week. I expected the Bears to chase on the scoreboard, creating more passing attempts. Surprisingly, Chicago dominated in the run game (64/279/2), highlighted by the success of Montgomery (15/122 – 8.1 yards per carry). Unfortunately, he only caught two passes. My initial thought was to use Cole Kmet (2.5 catches), but their top running back made more sense based on his overall opportunity in their offense.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (Over 3.5 catches)
Other than the vig (-135), this line looks to be good to be true. Mooney only has two catches for four yards on five targets over the first two weeks. Last year in his eight home starts, he had a floor of five catches in EVERY GAME. The Bears will throw the ball more this week and Mooney should be the player most rewarded.
Green Bay Running Backs
Aaron Jones (3.5 catches) and AJ Dillon (2.5) should be active in the passing game as Aaron Rodgers must get the ball out quickly to beat the Bucs’ rising defense. Their wide receivers are banged up with questionable spacing against a good secondary.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (Over 4.5 catches)
I took the over in receiving yards at Underdog, but the play on the over in catches is also attractive. Pitts is a player many thought would catch 80-plus balls. After two games, he has four catches for 38 yards, so a correction game is coming.
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (Under 4.5 catches)
I looked at his prop line (five catches) hard at Underdog as it looked way out of line despite his early success (5/39 and 7/71 on 20 combined targets). In 2020 and 2021, over 30 games, Higbee averaged 3.5 catches and 4.8 targets. He did have five catches in nine of his 18 starts last season, so his catch over/under is too far out of line. Higbee had two short games (4/36 and 3/46) against Arizona last season.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons (Over 43.5 rushing yards)
The Falcons had Patterson on the field for 59 percent of their plays last week, but they failed to get him a target against the Rams. He gained 41 yards on 10 carries, which was well below his opportunity and output in Week 1 (136 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches on 25 touches). Seattle struggled against running backs (I included Deebo Samuel’s rushing stats) over the first two games (424 combined yards with two touchdowns and 18 catches). Patterson should return to more of a three-down role this week, helping his floor by catching a few more balls. Seattle’s defense struggles to get offenses off the field, and they lost their top safety (Jamal Adams) for the season.