The early “Monday Night Football” game pits last year’s AFC No. 1 seed against the favorite to come out of the conference this year. The spread doesn’t indicate this meeting between the Titans and Bills will be much of a fair fight, though, as Buffalo is a double-digit favorite at home.
Week 1 went wildly different for these two teams. The Bills justified their status as preseason Super Bowl favorites by making short work of the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams on the road. The Titans opened their season with a last-minute home loss to the Giants. That helps explain the 10-point spread in favor of Buffalo, which has one of the highest implied point totals of the week.
- Moneyline: Titans (+360) | Bills (-460)
- Spread: Titans +10 (-110) | Bills -10 (-110)
- Total: 47.5 Over (-106) | Under (-114)
The Bills and Titans played in 2021 and Tennessee put together a goal-line stop in the final seconds of the game and hung on to win. Josh Allen accounted for nearly 400 yards of offense and tossed three touchdowns, all to different receivers, but Buffalo was gashed on the ground for 146 yards and four scores. Nearly all of that rushing production came courtesy of Derrick Henry, who carried the ball 20 times for 143 yards.
The Bills defended the run exceptionally last week against the Rams: L.A. averaged just 2.9 yards per carry. The front seven will need to be ready to match that performance Monday against Henry, who rushed for 82 yards on 21 carries last week.
Tennessee will have to lean on Henry perhaps even more than usual this week depending on how its injury report breaks. Dontrell Hilliard, who spelled Henry at times and scored two touchdowns last week, is out, as is Kyle Philips, who led the team in receiving in Week 1. That puts the onus on quarterback Ryan Tannehill to get Robert Woods and Austin Hooper more involved in the receiving game.
Buffalo is one of the pass-heaviest teams in the NFL, but they may find some success on the ground in this matchup. The Tennessee defense, which is without linebacker Harold Landry, allowed Saquon Barkley and the Giants to run all over them to the tune of 238 yards on the ground. The Bills ran the ball well against the Rams, as Allen and Singletary combined for 100-plus yards, but this is still a pass-first offense and Allen is fully capable of slicing up this secondary yet again.
The Giants don’t exactly have a vaunted defense, and they managed to hold the Titans under 100 yards on the ground and to 20 points. The Bills have playmakers all over their defense and just held the Rams to 10 points at SoFi Stadium. Even accounting for Buffalo’s electric offense, I’m taking the under. I expect it to be very difficult for Tannehill to move the ball against the Bills.
And I also like Buffalo to make it 2-0 ATS. Yes, this is a large line and Tennessee came out on top in the last meeting, but the Titans aren’t what they were and the Bills seemingly have taken their game up another notch. And as a general rule, I’m not betting against Allen.