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Saints vs. Buccaneers Week 13 Odds: Tampa Bay Goes for Season Sweep of New Orleans

The Buccaneers are favored at home against their division rival on "Monday Night Football."

The Saints swept the Buccaneers in the regular season in both of Tom Brady’s first two years with the team. Tampa Bay now has a chance to do the same to its division rival on Monday night.

New Orleans lost at home, 20-10 when these teams met in Week 2, and is a 3.5-point underdog at Raymond James Stadium. The Saints came away with a 9-0 win in their last trip to Tampa in a nightmare game for the Buccaneers.

This game will have an outsized impact on the NFC South playoff picture with the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints—all of whom are below .500 — so close to one another in the standings. Tampa Bay (5-6) lost last week to the Browns in overtime, which ended its two-game winning streak, and New Orleans (4-8) was shut out by the 49ers on the road.

Both teams have fallen well short of expectations this season and have been brutal to bettors. The Buccaneers have a 3-7-1 mark against the spread and the Saints aren’t much better at 4-8.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds

Moneyline: Saints (+165) | Buccaneers (-200)

Spread: Saints +3.5 (-110) | Buccaneers -3.5 (-110)

Total: 40.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Tampa Bay went from one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL to a bottom-tier unit. The Bucs are sixth worst in points per game (18.2). Their running game, which averages just 73 yards per game, is far and away the worst in the league. The heart of the offense is the passing attack, which is nowhere near its 2021 levels. Brady has attempted more passes than any quarterback in the league but he has just 14 touchdowns on the year.

Injuries along the offensive line have plagued Tampa Bay all season and another blow came last week when Tristan Wirfs (ankle/knee) went down. He’s been ruled out for Monday’s contest.

Conversely, the Buccaneers’ defense is one of the best units in football. They allow the sixth-fewest points (18.5) and are especially difficult to pass against as one of eight teams in the league to allow fewer than 200 yards through the air per game. The secondary is banged up, though, and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. are both doubtful.

The Saints' offense is technically better than the Bucs’, but not by much. It averages 20.8 points per game, primarily behind its passing attack led by Andy Dalton. His connection with rookie receiver Chris Olave is a welcome spark beyond the contributions of versatile running back Alvin Kamara. The run game is not nearly as strong and the team was held to just 63 yards on 22 carries last week against San Francisco.

New Orleans' defense is typically stout, but it’s been exploitable this season. It allowed just 13 points to the 49ers last time out, but the Rams scored 20 the game prior. Most of the big spots the Saints gave up were earlier in the season and they, too, defend the pass exceptionally and can be beaten on the ground.

The marquee matchup in this game is Marshon Lattimore against Mike Evans. The two have a well-documented history of fighting that boiled over earlier this season and resulted in an ejection and one-game suspension for Evans.

Tampa Bay hasn’t necessarily defended its home field well this season with a 2-3 record at Raymond James Stadium. New Orleans has been even worse on the road with an 0-4 mark since a Week 1 win in Atlanta. The Buccaneers have played better of late, even with their confounding overtime loss a week ago. Don’t count on the run game to do too much, but Brady should be able to move the ball well enough against the Saints to get Ryan Succop in field goal range. The under feels safe in this one, especially considering the score entering the fourth quarter last time these teams met was 3-3 before Tampa Bay opened up the scoring.

The Pick:

Buccaneers -3.5

Over 40.5