In my first attempt to take down a five-parlay at Underdog Fantasy, I went 4-1, with my loss coming from being on the wrong side of AJ Dillon’s fantasy points projection (12.45). Unfortunately, I had the proper thought process, but the incorrect running back in Green Bay.
My goal is to place a $50 investment on a five-player prop with the hopes of winning $1,000. Underdog lists many options on Friday, but they add more choices over the weekend. The added props led me to play two $50 parlays last week with a slight variation in each bet. I went 8-2 while needing one more catch by two players (Rhamondre Stevenson and Allen Robinson) to go 9-0-1.
Here is my recap from Week 2:
· Leonard Fournette (Under 95.5 combined yards) winner
· Courtland Sutton (Over 11.95 fantasy points) winner
· Allen Robinson (Over 10.75 fantasy points) winner
· Josh Jacobs (over 57.5 rushing yards) winner
· AJ Dillon (Over 12.45 fantasy points) loser
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (Over 45.5 receiving yards)
There are multiple options for Mooney in Week 3 that should win. The Bears’ passing offense has been dismal over the first two weeks (15-for-28 with 191 yards and two touchdowns). As a result, their wide receivers only have seven catches for 134 yards and two scores on 15 targets). Last year Mooney caught 81 balls for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns on 140 targets, with his best play coming at home (44/580/3). He had five catches in every game played in Chicago (6/66, 5/125, 5/45/1, 6/64, 5/121/1, 5/27, 5/63, and 7/69/1) while averaging 72.5 receiving yards. This most significant difference from his opportunity in 2021 is Mooney doesn’t have Allen Robinson operating as the Bears' WR1, meaning Mooney will face more challenging coverage.
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (Over 17.5 receiving yards)
The usage of Etienne after two games has been highly frustrating, but he is still on pace for 1,003 yards and 43 catches. Game flow last week led to him being on the field for 37 percent of the Jaguars’ plays compared to 51 percent in Week 1. At the very least, Etienne projects as the pass-catching back in Jacksonville with a minimum of one-third of the rushing attempts. Over his first two games, he gained over 17.5 receiving yards in each matchup (2/18 and 3/33) despite only having seven combined targets. The Chargers have a talented quarterback and should score plenty of points against the Jaguars. A flip to a game where they trail should lead to Etienne being much more active in Week 3, especially in receptions. In addition, Los Angeles has one of the best cornerbacks in the league (J.C. Jackson), suggesting fewer passes to the Jaguars’ top receiver.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars (Under 65.5 receiving yards)
Two games into his career with Jacksonville, Kirk already has two outstanding showings (6/117 and 6/78/2). He ranks seventh in wide receiver scoring (43.50 fantasy points) in PPR leagues. Last season with Arizona, Kirk set career highs in catches (77) and receiving yards (982) while gaining 66 yards in seven of his 18 starts. His role and opportunity with the Jaguars look higher in 2022 and this week’s matchup invites more passing attempts by Trevor Lawrence. The Chargers' pass defense had no answer for Davante Adams (10/141/1) in Week 1, but they played the game without their top cornerback (J.C. Jackson). Los Angeles has strength in its pass rush and held the Chiefs’ wide receivers to 10 catches for 122 yards and one score on 16 targets in Week 2. Kirk will see more defensive attention this week, pointing to a regression in his stats.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (Over 47.5 receiving yards)
Pitts is the 35th-ranked tight end after the first two weeks, thanks to matching performances (2/19) against the Saints and Rams. Marcus Mariota has only looked his way 10 times with only a 40 percent completion rate. Last season, Pitts averaged 6.5 targets while gaining 15.1 yards per catch. He gained 48 yards in 11 of his 17 starts. Seattle played the 49ers without George Kittle, leading to minimal production by their tight ends (1/38/1). In Week 1, Russell Wilson completed five of his passes for 33 yards to Albert Okwuegbunam, and fullback/tight end Andrew Beck added two receptions for 52 yards. With safety Jamal Adams out for the season and London Drake playing well at wide receiver for Atlanta, Pitts should have many more targets in this matchup.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (Over 178.5 passing yards)
With only 28 passes attempts after two games, hitting on the over in Fields’s passing yards appears to be a tall task. Despite trailing in the second half against Green Bay, Chicago didn’t force the issue with the pass, and the water-logged conditions in Week 1 vs. the 49ers lowered the overall passing chances for both teams. Over eight starts in 2021, Fields passed for 179 yards or more in five matchups (209/0, 184/0, 291/1, 224/2, and 285/1) while falling a few yards short in two other games (174/1 and 184/0) against San Francisco and Green Bay at home. The Texans don’t have a great defense, pointing to Fields being more productive passing the ball. This prop will be close, but I’m confident he has a correction game in his passing stats.