Week 3 in the NFL is already off to a fun start thanks to a back-and-forth game between the Browns and Steelers on Thursday night. But there’s plenty more action on Sunday to bet on, especially some really intriguing player props.
When targeting prop bets, it’s always a good idea to keep in mind the implied totals set by oddsmakers as well as what the spread says about the likely game script. For example, if a team is heavily favored and likely playing with the lead, the running back may be a good player to target. If a team is expected to be playing from behind, look for passing and receiving props. Today we are targeting two receiving props from the Chiefs/Colts matchup as the Chiefs are favored by more than a TD and we are assuming the Colts will be playing catch up. Plus there are some interesting options for the Lions' playmakers and the Raiders' running back.
With that being said, let’s dive in!
Jared Goff over 1.5 passing TDs (-110)
Goff is tied with Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert for the second-most TDs this year (6). This week he’s in a matchup with the highest implied game total of the week. He should connect with Amon-Ra St. Brown and perhaps also DJ Chark, who has seen a 33.4 percent target share for the Lions.
DJ Chark over 36.5 receiving yards (-120), Anytime TD (+250)
Speaking of Chark, let’s take the over on his receiving yards prop and maybe even sprinkle a little on a plus-money prop to find the end zone. He had zero yards last week, but I am willing to bet on a bounce-back as he’s clearly still high enough in the target pecking order. He saw the third-most targets in Week 2 and he had four catches for 52 yards in Week 1.
Michael Pittman Jr. over 64.5 receiving yards (-125)
Pittman saw 13 targets for nine catches, 121 yards and a score in Week 1 vs. the Texans. He had a whopping 26.5 percent target share for the Colts and ranked 10th among all NFL wideouts in air yards. There’s no question who the alpha is in Indianapolis as Matt Ryan looked completely lost without him vs. the Jags last Sunday. This week, however, is a great spot for Pittman as he returns to action. Pittman takes on a Chiefs defense that has allowed 327 yards to opposing wide receivers across the first two contests. Ryan will have to put the ball in the air to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and this offense and Pittman should be the main beneficiary.
Nyheim Hines over 26.5 receiving yards (-115)
Hines has surpassed this prop in both contests this year and this week he’s facing a Chiefs team that has allowed 127 yards and an 80 percent catch rate to opposing running backs. The Colts will likely be playing from behind vs. a high-powered Chiefs offense and that means Hines should be in the game script.
Josh Jacobs over 76.5 rushing + receiving yards (-125)
The Titans got torched by Saquon Barkley in Week 1 and on the season have surrendered the third-most rushing yards to opposing RBs (277). Though Jacobs hasn’t been especially efficient, he is getting the volume in Las Vegas, rushing 19 times for 69 yards on Sunday. Jacobs has also caught both of his targets this year for another 28 yards.