In many ways, this has been an unpredictable first weekend — Middle Tennessee’s historic upset of Michigan State, Northern Iowa’s one-of-a-kind collapse, rare NCAA tournament wins for Yale and Hawaii.
At the same time, the Sweet 16 field is totally predictable. All four No. 1 seeds advanced to the second weekend. Blue bloods like Kansas, Duke, North Carolina and Indiana are in every bracket. The lowest-seeded teams to make it this far are familiar names — Wisconsin, Syracuse and Gonzaga.
As the NCAA Tournament moves into its second weekend, this is a perfect time look back at Athlon’s picks for the 2015-16 season. Like many college basketball coaches looking back on their own seasons, we saw some things we liked and some things we didn’t.
Our preseason No. 1 team (Kentucky) is already out of the field. Our preseason No. 2 team (Duke) played with fire against UNC Wilmington and Yale, but still advanced to the second round.
Yet, Kentucky is the only team in our top preseason seven that didn’t reach the Sweet 16.
We’ll take that.
Here’s the good, the bad and the ugly of how Athlon’s preseason college basketball preview stacked up with the Sweet 16 and the overall field.
• Athlon had 13 teams from the Sweet 16 in our preseason top 25. Miami, Notre Dame and Syracuse are the only Sweet 16 teams we did not have in our preseason top 25, though we projected all three in the field.
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Here’s how our top 25 compared with the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament:
Athlon's Top 25 in the Sweet 16 | Other Athlon Top 25 Teams |
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No. 2 Duke | No. 1 Kentucky | Lost to Indiana in the second round |
No. 3 North Carolina | No. 8 Arizona | Lost to Wichita State in the first round |
No. 4 Maryland | No. 12 Michigan State | Lost to Middle Tennessee in the first round |
No. 5 Virginia | No. 13 Cal | Lost to Hawaii in the first round |
No. 6 Kansas | No. 14 Wichita State | Lost to Miami in the second round |
No. 7 Iowa State | No. 15 Vanderbilt | Lost to Wichita State in the First Four |
No. 9 Oklahoma | No. 16 Purdue | Lost to Little Rock in the first round |
No. 10 Villanova | No. 18 UConn | Lost to Kansas in the second round |
No. 11 Gonzaga | No. 20 Butler | Lost to Virginia in the second round |
No. 17 Indiana | No. 22 Michigan | Lost to Notre Dame in the first round |
No. 19 Wisconsin | No. 23 Louisville | Ineligible |
No. 21 Oregon | No. 24 SMU | Ineligible |
No. 25 Texas A&M |
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• Athlon's preseason bracket predicted 43 of the 68 teams in the field. Among the 25 teams Athlon predicted to be in the field that didn’t make it were the two ineligible teams that would have made the field under normal circumstances (Louisville and SMU). The Mustangs were banned form the postseason Sept. 30, and the Cardinals announced their self-imposed ban in February.
Our preseason picks included eight regular season champions in one-bid leagues that were upset in conference tournaments: North Florida (Atlantic Sun), Hofstra (Colonial), UAB (Conference USA), Valparaiso (Horizon), San Diego State (Mountain West), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Texas Southern (SWAC) and New Mexico State (WAC).
A generous reading, then, would say Athlon pinpointed 53 NCAA Tournament-caliber teams: The 43 teams that actually made the field, the two teams that were banned from the post season and eight one-bid conference champions.
• Athlon missed on nine teams from major conferences that made the field as at-large bids. Seeding-wise, Seton Hall was our biggest miss. The Pirates won the Big East tournament and earned No. 6 seed, but lost to Gonzaga in the first round. We projected Seton Hall as the No. 8 team in the Big East and going to the NIT. USC probably was the biggest overall miss, as Athlon picked the Trojans to finish 11th in the Pac-12. Andy Enfield's team ended up making the tournament safely as a No. 8 seed.
These are the major teams that we projected for the NIT or worse that made the NCAA Tournament:
| We predicted... | What actually happened... |
Colorado | Eighth in Pac-12, NIT | No. 8 seed, lost to No. 9 UConn |
Pittsburgh | 10th in ACC, NIT | No. 10 seed, lost to No. 7 Wisconsin |
Seton Hall | Eighth in Big East, NIT | No. 6 seed, lost to No. 11 Gonzaga |
St. Joseph's | Seventh in A-10 | No. 8 seed, beat No. 9 Cincinnati, lost to No. 1 Oregon |
Temple | Seventh in AAC | No. 10 seed, lost to No. 7 Iowa |
Texas Tech | Eighth in Big 12 | No. 8 seed, lost to No. 9 Butler |
Tulsa | Fourth in AAC, NIT | No. 11 seed, lost to No. 11 Michigan |
USC | 11th in Pac-12 | No. 8 seed, lost to No. 9 Providence |
VCU | Fourth in A-10, NIT | No. 10 seed, lost to No. 2 Oklahoma |
• Athlon predicted seven major teams to make the field, but they ended up in the NIT or worse (not counting Louisville and SMU)
| We predicted... | What actually happened... |
Florida | Fifth in SEC, NCAA First Four | Tied for eighth in SEC, NIT |
Florida State | Sixth in ACC, NCAA second round | 11th in ACC, NIT |
Georgetown | Fourth in Big East, NCAA second round | Eighth in Big East |
LSU | Fourth in SEC, NCAA second round | Tied for third in SEC |
NC State | Ninth in ACC, NCAA First Four | 13th in ACC |
Rhode Island | Second in A-10, NCAA first round | Seventh in A-10 |
UCLA | Fourth in Pac-12, NCAA second round | 10th in Pac-12 |
