10 College Football Picks Against the Spread (ATS) for Week 11

South Carolina looks to secure a winning SEC record with a victory in Gainesville

The Week 11 edition of college football picks against the spread is highlighted by an intriguing battle in the SEC East as Florida looks to snap a two-game losing streak. Elsewhere, Syracuse hopes to stay hot against struggling Louisville; Georgia Tech aims for its third straight win as Miami visits Atlanta; and Kentucky heads to Tennessee searching for its first win in Knoxville since 1984. Here are 10 predictions for games against the spread.

 

South Carolina (+6.5) over Florida

It was a humbling weekend for the Gators, who are in the midst of the first two-game losing streak of the Dan Mullen era after Missouri’s surprisingly easy 38–17 win in Gainesville. Quarterback Feleipe Franks, who had been showing signs of progress, has regressed in the last few weeks; he completed only 9-of-22 passes for 84 yards in the loss to Missouri and has a total of 189 yards passing in the last two games. South Carolina has won three of its last four, each by four points or fewer, to ensure at least a .500 finish in league play. The Gamecocks are banged up on defense, especially in the secondary, but they should be able to play well against a Florida team lacking confidence. Florida 24, South Carolina 21

 

Syracuse (-21) over Louisville (Friday)

Louisville has given up a total of 40 touchdowns in its six ACC games. No team in the nation, in any conference, has allowed more TDs in league play. On a related note: The Cardinals are 0–6 in the ACC, and only one game has been decided by fewer than 18 points. Syracuse is trending in the other direction. The Orange have won three straight games, the last two by 10 points over NC State and by 17 points at Wake Forest. This is a hungry team. Syracuse 49, Louisville 20

 

Kentucky (-4.5) over Tennessee

The biggest game in Kentucky history did not go well for the boys in blue — Georgia beat the Wildcats 34–17 — but this is still a good team that is in position to win 10 games in the regular season for the first time since 1977. UK struggled to stop Georgia’s rushing attack on Saturday, but this had been one of the SEC’s best teams at stopping the run. Tennessee has had issues running the ball for most of the season; the Vols have had fewer than 70 yards on the ground in four of their last five games, including 20 last week in an underwhelming 14–3 win over Charlotte. This is a tough matchup for the UT offense. Kentucky 20, Tennessee 10

 

Georgia Tech (-3.5) over Miami

Miami’s offense has been a mess of late and is the primary reason the Hurricanes have lost three straight games. They have averaged 13 points during the three-game slide and don’t appear to be on the verge of solving the primary issue — quarterback play. Georgia Tech has won two straight (both on the road) on the strength of a devastating rushing attack that produced 465 yards in the win at Virginia Tech and 461 in the win at North Carolina. Tobias Oliver, who has been filling in for the injured TaQuon Marshall at quarterback, is expected to get the start again. Georgia Tech 27, Miami 17

 

Indiana (-3) over Maryland

It was a tumultuous week for the Maryland football team, and the Terps capped it off with an underwhelming performance in a 24–3 loss to Michigan State. The offense managed only 100 yards on 53 plays for a paltry 1.9-yard average. Indiana has lost four straight and is a disappointing 1–5 in the Big Ten. The defense has taken a step back in 2018 and has allowed at least 33 points in each of the last four games. A key to the game could be timing: Indiana is well rested after a bye week, while Maryland will be playing for the sixth straight weekend and has been forced to deal with so many off-the-field issues. Indiana 24, Maryland 14

 

Northwestern (+10) over Iowa

Northwestern is complete control in the Big Ten West. Even if the Wildcats lose on Saturday in Iowa City — a strong possibility — they will still head to the league title game with wins over Minnesota and Illinois. Iowa suffered another heartbreaking loss on Saturday, losing by two points at Purdue. That followed a six-point loss at Penn State. This team is 6–3 overall and could easily be 8–1 or even 9–0. Iowa is the better team (despite Northwestern’s first-place status), but it’s always dangerous to bet against the Cats as the underdog. Iowa 24, Northwestern 17

 

Colorado (+6) over Washington State

Things aren’t going great in Boulder. The Buffaloes have followed up a season-opening five-game winning streak with a four-game slide and still need one more win to become bowl-eligible. Washington State survived a scare last weekend, scoring late to beat Cal 19–13 in Berkeley. Colorado is a better offensive team than Cal, so Wazzu better score some points if it wants to remain on the fringes of the College Football Playoff discussion. Washington State 31, Colorado 27

 

UTEP (+13.5) over Middle Tennessee

UTEP broke through with a 34–26 win at Rice on Saturday, the Miners’ first victory since the final game of the 2016 season. This shouldn’t have been that big of a surprise; despite the lack of wins, UTEP had been playing better of late. Leading up to the win over Rice, the Miners lost four straight games by 10 points or fewer and then had a respectable 19–0 loss to UAB, the best team in Conference USA. Middle Tennessee is clearly the better team, but don’t be surprised if the Blue Raiders struggle a bit on this trip to West Texas. Middle Tennessee 34, UTEP 23

 

Florida Atlantic (-19.5) over Western Kentucky

After a sluggish two-game stretch in which it scored a total of 20 points, the FAU offense broke out in a big way in an impressive 49–14 win over FIU, which came into the game without a loss in league play. The Owls’ ground game was the difference; they rushed for 439 yards on a 7.3-yard average, led by a season-high 184 from Devin Singletary. Western Kentucky continues to struggle. The Hilltoppers are 1–8 overall, and there are rumors that Mike Sanford could be gone after just two years in Bowling Green. Florida Atlantic 41, Western Kentucky 17

 

ULM (-5.5) over South Alabama

ULM has won three straight and is alone in first place in the Sun Belt West. Last week, the Warhawks snapped Georgia Southern’s five-game winning streak with an emphatic 44–25 win in Monroe. South Alabama, on the other hand, is struggling in Steve Campbell’s first season. The Jaguars have lost five straight against FBS opponents, the last four by an average of 31.3 points. ULM 38, South Alabama 23

 

Last week: 5–5

Season: 48–52

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