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Alamo Bowl Preview and Prediction: UCLA vs. Kansas State

Brett Hundley

Brett Hundley

UCLA and Kansas State were on the cusp of playing in a bigger postseason game, but the Bruins and Wildcats should have plenty of motivation when they meet on Friday night in the Alamo Bowl. Both teams recorded a 9-3 record in the regular season and went into the final weekend of action with conference title aspirations. UCLA lost to Stanford to end its hopes of playing in the Pac-12 Championship, while Kansas State’s Big 12 title aspirations ended after TCU defeated Iowa State on Dec. 6.

Kansas State is always a threat to win the Big 12 with coach Bill Snyder on the sidelines, and the Wildcats won at least eight games for the fourth consecutive season. There’s no shame in the three losses by Kansas State in 2014, as Snyder’s team dropped games against Auburn, TCU and Baylor – three of arguably the top 10-15 teams in the nation. UCLA was pegged by some as the favorite to win the Pac-12 in 2014, but coach Jim Mora’s team dropped back-to-back games against Utah and Oregon in early October to end its playoff hopes. The Bruins’ 31-10 loss to Stanford in the regular season finale allowed Arizona to win the Pac-12 South. Perhaps UCLA was overranked to start the season, but under Mora’s direction, the Bruins have won at least nine games in every season. This program is on the right track under Mora, and with a win over Kansas State, UCLA will have double-digit victories in back-to-back years for the first time since 1997-98.

UCLA and Kansas State have met only two previous times. The series is tied at one victory apiece, with the last meeting occurring in 2010. These two teams have never played each other in a bowl game.

UCLA vs. Kansas State

Kickoff: Friday, Jan. 2 at 6:45 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Spread: UCLA -1

UCLA’s Key to Victory: Win the Turnover Battle

It’s a simple goal, but Kansas State won’t beat itself. The Wildcats lost only 11 turnovers – No. 3 nationally – and committed just four penalties per game. UCLA struggled with its discipline at times in 2014, as Mora’s team committed seven penalties per game and registered a -1 in turnover margin. The Alamo Bowl will be quarterback Brett Hundley’s last game in a UCLA uniform, as Mora already indicated his quarterback is set to go to the NFL. Hundley has been efficient this season, throwing for 3,019 yards and 21 touchdowns to only five picks. The junior is facing a K-State secondary that ranked fifth in the Big 12 in pass efficiency defense and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.9 percent of their throws. In addition to Hundley, the Wildcats have to find a way to slow down running back Paul Perkins (1,381 yards, 7 TDs). Protecting Hundley has been a challenge at times this year, but UCLA’s line has played better since the addition of Conor McDermott at left tackle. Kansas State allowed only 35 plays of 20 yards or more (fewest allowed in the Big 12) this season. Hundley and the Bruins offense have plenty of firepower, but patience is required against a defense that doesn’t allow many big plays and has forced 20 turnovers this year. If UCLA limits its mistakes, opportunities should be there for Hundley and this offense to match its 32.9 points per game scoring average.

Kansas State’s Key to Victory: Waters to Lockett

Kansas State doesn’t have the most prolific rushing offense, as the Wildcats rank sixth in the Big 12 by averaging just 142.8 yards per game. What Kansas State doesn’t have in terms of a dominant rushing attack, it certainly makes up for it through the air. Quarterback Jake Waters completed 66.2 percent of his passes this year for 3,163 yards and 20 scores to only six interceptions. The senior’s favorite target is senior Tyler Lockett, who grabbed 93 receptions for 1,351 yards and nine scores in 2014. Lockett averaged 14.5 yards per reception and was a weapon on special teams with two punt returns for scores. UCLA’s secondary allowed only three plays of 40 yards or more during the regular season and it needs to keep Lockett under wraps on Friday night. The Bruins have struggled to generate a pass rush this year, so if the front seven can’t get to Waters, the opportunities should be there for Lockett to make plays downfield. If UCLA can limit the damage by Lockett and Waters, the Bruins should be in good position to earn the Alamo Bowl victory.

Final Analysis

On paper, this is an even matchup. Perhaps one of the best of the bowl season. UCLA clearly has more talent on its roster, but Kansas State simply doesn’t beat itself and has one of the nation’s top coaches in Bill Snyder. In a tight game, turnovers could be critical. The Wildcats have been better in that department this season, which could be enough to swing this game in favor of K-State. Also, which team should have more motivation? Both teams had hopes of playing in a New Year’s Six bowl but losses on the final weekend knocked UCLA and Kansas State out of contention for a premier postseason destination. The Bruins have been up-and-down this season, while the Wildcats’ senior class is looking to close out their career with one more win. This one in San Antonio is a coin flip, but let’s a give a small edge to Kansas State.

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Prediction: Kansas State 34, UCLA 31