Big 12 title implications are potentially on the line when Baylor and Texas meet on Saturday afternoon. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma earlier in the day, this game won’t factor in into the conference championship discussion, but the Bears still need a win to keep their BCS bowl hopes alive.
In addition to the potential Big 12 title implications, this is the final game at Baylor’s Floyd Casey Stadium. The Bears have won nine straight at home and can set a school record of 10 in a row with a victory over Texas. Baylor is set to move into a new stadium in 2014, which is set on the edge of the Brazos River. The new stadium will seat 45,000.
Texas has dealt with several obstacles this season, including injuries and ongoing coaching rumors about the status of Mack Brown. The Longhorns started 1-2 but rebounded by winning six in a row. Texas lost 38-13 to Oklahoma State for its only Big 12 loss.
Baylor started 9-0 and was in the conversation for the national title until a 49-17 loss to Oklahoma State. The Bears rebounded from the loss against the Cowboys by defeating TCU 41-38 last Saturday.
Texas owns a decided 74-24-4 series edge against Baylor. The Longhorns won last season’s meeting 56-50, but the Bears won two in a row from 2010-11.
Texas at Baylor
Kickoff: 3:30 ET
TV Channel: FOX
Spread: Baylor – 15
Texas’ Key to Victory: Establish the run
The Longhorns rank third in the Big 12 in rushing offense, averaging 200.7 yards per game. Depth in the backfield has been depleted due to an injury to Johnathan Gray, but Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron are a capable one-two punch. Brown is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry on 163 attempts this season. However, the junior leads the team with nine rushing scores, while Bergeron has 342 yards this year. Texas is averaging only 223.4 passing yards per game in Big 12 games and isn’t built to win a shootout against Baylor. The Longhorns’ best hope at victory is a ground-based approach on offense, which eats up the clock and keeps Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty and running back Lache Seastrunk on the sidelines.
Baylor’s Key to Victory: Protect quarterback Bryce Petty
It sounds simple, but Baylor’s victory hopes could reside on its offensive line. The Bears have allowed five sacks over the last two games and have posted two of their lowest offensive outputs of the season with left tackle Spencer Drango out. The offensive line will be tested once again, especially since Texas recorded nine sacks against Texas Tech. The Longhorns moved defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat around the line of scrimmage against the Red Raiders, allowing the senior to record seven tackles and three sacks. Protecting Petty and opening rushing lanes for Lache Seastrunk will be critical against a Texas defense that has allowed less than 110 rushing yards in two out of their last three games.
Key Player: Case McCoy, QB, Texas
Texas faces an uphill battle at victory if this game turns into a shootout. However, it’s unlikely the Longhorns can simply rely on their rushing attack to win. McCoy has thrown for 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions this year, while completing 60.1 percent of his throws. The senior has not topped 300 passing yards in a game this season and has tossed at least one interception in five out of the last six contests. Expect Texas to lean on Brown and Bergeron to control the clock, but McCoy has to make plays in the passing game when called upon. And turnovers will be critical, especially since the Longhorns cannot afford to give Baylor a short field or any easy scores.
With this game the final one in Floyd Casey Stadium and a chance to add another loss to Texas’ resume, Baylor should have plenty of motivation – even if Oklahoma State wins earlier in the day. The Longhorns will have success playing keep away and will move the ball on the ground. However, Baylor simply has too much firepower, and quarterback Bryce Petty guides a big second half to close out the Bears’ time at Floyd Casey Stadium with a victory.
Prediction: Baylor 41, Texas 31