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Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl Preview and Prediction: East Carolina vs. Ohio

Shane Carden

Shane Carden

East Carolina will try and cap off one of the most successful seasons in program history with a victory over Ohio in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl in St. Petersburg, Fla.

East Carolina went 9-3 this season, including road victories over in-state brethren North Carolina and North Carolina State. Ruffin McNeill’s Pirates posted a 6-2 mark in Conference USA, finishing second in the East Division to Marshall. McNeill has his Pirates in a bowl game for the third time in his four seasons at the helm.

East Carolina has lost its last four bowl games, including a 43-34 defeat to Louisiana-Lafayette in last season’s New Orleans Bowl. A win over Ohio would be just the second 10-win season in school history, topped only by Bill Lewis’ 1991 team that finished 11-1.

This represents Ohio’s fifth straight bowl appearance, as the Bobcats have become one of the most successful programs in the Mid-American Conference (MAC) under the direction of Frank Solich.

Ohio started this season strong, beating bowl teams Marshall and North Texas to jump out to a 6-2 record by end the of October. The Bobcats struggled down the stretch, however, losing three conference games in a row by a combined score of 123-16. They rebounded with a convincing win over UMass in the regular-season finale to finish at 7-5 and 4-4 in the MAC’s East Division.

After picking up the program’s first-ever bowl win two seasons ago, the Bobcats made it two in a row last year with a 45-14 victory over Louisiana-Monroe in the Independence Bowl. A victory over East Carolina would give Ohio five straight seasons of at least eight wins.

These two schools have played twice before with East Carolina winning both games. The last meeting was in 1998 when the Pirates beat the Bobcats 21-14 in Athens, Ohio.

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East Carolina vs. Ohio

Kickoff: Monday, Dec. 23 at 2 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Spread: East Carolina -13.5

East Carolina’s Key to Victory: Stick to the script
The Pirates enter this game 30th in the nation in total offense (459.8 ypg) and 10th in both passing (331.5 ypg) and scoring (40.4 ppg) offense. It’s pretty easy to win nine games when you score at least 31 points in eight of them. Quarterback Shane Carden is the key to this offense, as he’s seventh in nation with 322.2 passing yards per game for 32 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. Carden leads FBS with his 71 percent completion rate, which is impressive considering he’s attempted 504 passes, which ties him for the fifth in the nation. Carden also has 10 rushing touchdowns, so he’s capable of making plays with his legs too. The Pirates run enough (128.3 rushing ypg) to make it harder for opponents to focus on stopping the passing game, and have produced nearly as many touchdowns on the ground (27) as through the air (33). Ohio has had its issues on defense, allowing nearly 27 points per game on the season. The Bobcats really struggled in November, surrendering 427 yards and 36.5 points per game over their last four. As long as the Pirates stick with what has worked so well for them, this offense should be able to move the ball and put plenty of points on the scoreboard

Ohio’s Key to Victory: Remember 2012
Last season, the Bobcats won their first seven games and found themselves well positioned for a possible BCS bowl bid entering the final weekend of October. Ranked 24th in the BCS standings and 23rd in the Associated Press poll, Ohio lost a heart-breaker to in-state rival Miami (Ohio) when it passed on a potential, chip-shot, game-tying field goal late in the fourth quarter before running out of time, and would finish the regular season with three straight defeats. Very few gave Ohio a shot against Louisiana-Monroe in the Independence Bowl, as the Bobcats entered the contest as more than a touchdown underdog to the Warhawks. Someone apparently forgot to tell Ohio it was supposed to lose, however, as the Bobcats jumped out a 24-7 halftime lead and used a balanced offensive attack and stifling defense to post a convincing 45-14 victory. Ohio finds itself in a similar situation this season having dropped three of its last four to end the regular season and entering its bowl game an underdog of nearly two touchdowns to East Carolina. This is a veteran Bobcats team with many of the key players from last season’s improbable win over Louisiana-Monroe now seniors. Proving the naysayers wrong is nothing new to this team, it’s just a matter of remembering what worked so well a year ago.

Key Player: Tyler Tettleton, QB, Ohio
The son of MLB All-Star catcher Mickey Tettleton, Tyler (above, right) is a three-year starter who will be wrapping up his record-setting Ohio career against East Carolina. The holder of numerous school records, Tettleton has thrown for more than 8,900 yards and rushed for nearly 900 in his four seasons under center, although he played sparingly as a freshman. The dual threat has accounted for 72 total touchdowns, including one touchdown reception. He has thrown for more than 2,600 yards in each of the past three seasons and has completed better than 63 percent of his passes during that span. He struggled at the end of this season, averaging just 148.5 yards passing per game and throwing as many touchdowns as interceptions (3 apiece) in his last four contests. However, Tettleton has risen to the occasion more than once, as he has led his team to back-to-back bowl wins. Two years ago, Tettleton scored the game-winning touchdown with just 13 seconds left to propel Ohio over Utah State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl for the Bobcats’ first-ever bowl victory. Last season, Tettleton helped his underdog Bobcats handily defeat Louisiana-Monroe in the Independence Bowl by throwing for 331 yards and two touchdowns. Tettleton has put up his share of big numbers in big games and he will need to do so again against East Carolina if he wants to finish his collegiate career on a winning note.

Final Analysis

Ohio is a well-coached, veteran team that has overcome the odds to win a bowl game before. This stage and the underdog status is nothing new to this team, which is led by a group of seniors who are playing in their fourth straight bowl game. However, East Carolina brings to St. Petersburg, Fla., one of the nation’s most productive offenses. The Pirates have had no trouble scoring this season and have road victories over big brothers North Carolina and North Carolina State to prove it. Ohio has wins over two bowl teams (Marshall and North Texas), but also lost to three others (Bowling Green, Buffalo and Louisville) by a combined score of 128-10. The Bobcats put up a fight, but in the end the Pirates’ offense is simply too much for them to overcome.

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Prediction: East Carolina 41, Ohio 28