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Best Values in College Football Win Totals


We've now hit August and I've previewed pretty much all of the college football conference win totals. Now it's time to narrow them all down and give you my top plays in terms of value and how much I love them. For this exercise, I'm going to use the online sportsbook 5Dimes for their prices to show you where the value may be.

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Virginia (Over 5.5 wins +120)

Wins: Richmond, Central Michigan, Pittsburgh, @ UConn, @ Wake Forest, Miami

Losses: @ Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, @ Georgia Tech, @ Oregon, @ Virginia Tech

It's time for the Bronco Mendenhall era in Charlottesville and the Cavaliers will be better for it. Mendenhall is instilling an attitude here that should benefit a team that may have been coddled at times by former head coach Mike London. There are losses on both sides of the ball, but running back Taquan Mizzell and safety Quin Blanding are back and will make an impact. The schedule is a huge improvement from the past few years. Yes, it'll be tight, but Virginia has a nice stretch of four of five at home with the road opponent being Wake Forest.

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Predicted Record: 6-6

Virginia Tech (Over 7 +105)

Wins: Liberty, Boston College, East Carolina, @ Syracuse, Miami, @ Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia

Losses: Tennessee, @ North Carolina, @ Pittsburgh, @ Notre Dame

Justin Fuente has some big shoes to fill with the departure of Frank Beamer. The lower number here reflects a questionable quarterback situation and a defense that may take some time to gel. The best thing Fuente did this offseason was keep coordinator Bud Foster whose defense continues to be a strength. People are underselling the Hokies I think despite a schedule that has a nice layout. I think it's a good year in Blacksburg with a higher ceiling in the future under the new regime.

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Predicted Record: 8-4

Related: Examining the Over/Under 2016 Win Totals for the ACC Coastal Division

Texas A&M (Over 7 +105)

Wins: UCLA, Prairie View, @ Auburn, Arkansas, @ South Carolina, Tennessee, New Mexico State, UTSA

Losses: @ Alabama, @ Mississippi State, LSU, Ole Miss

I'm buying the Aggies big time in the SEC especially with Trevor Knight at the helm and one of the best WR corps in the country. Texas A&M has a pretty solid defense, which has improved since coordinator John Chavis came over from LSU. Defensive lineman Myles Garrett is playing to be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft. I think the schedule lines up nicely for Kevin Sumlin’s Aggies to be a factor.

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Predicted Record: 8-4

Related: Examining the Over/Under 2016 Win Totals for the SEC West

Northwestern (Over 7 +130)

Wins: Western Michigan, Illinois State, Duke, Nebraska, Indiana, Wisconsin, @ Purdue, Illinois

Losses: @ Iowa, @ MSU, @ Ohio State, @ Minnesota

Pat Fitzgerald has done great work with the Wildcats and the defense should be strong once again in 2016. Running back Justin Jackson is going to help the offense out, but sophomore quarterback Clayton Thorson needs to take the next step if Northwestern ultimately hopes to contend in the Big Ten West. It's a friendly start to the schedule with four straight at home.

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Predicted Record: 8-4

Related: Examining the Over/Under 2016 Win Totals for the Big Ten's West Division

Hawaii (Over 3.5 +110)

Wins: California, UT Martin, UNLV, New Mexico, UMass

Losses: @ Michigan, @ Arizona, Nevada, @ San Jose State, @ Air Force, @ San Diego State, Boise State, @ Fresno State

Not a lot is expected from Nick Rolovich in his first year at Hawaii. Hawaii's defense should be better after allowing more than 35 points per game last season.  The offense returns a bunch of pieces which figure to improve from last season. One of the toughest things about the Rainbow Warriors’ schedule is that they alternate home and road games every week of the season. That could make travel even more difficult for the most isolated team in the nation.

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Predicted Record: 5-8

Texas (Under 6.5 wins +150)

Wins: UTEP, @ California, Iowa State, West Virginia, @ Kansas,

Losses: Notre Dame, @ Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, @ Kansas State, Baylor, @ Texas Tech, TCU

I'm not buying the Longhorns quite yet. It's an important year for Charlie Strong, who is just 11-14 in his first two seasons at Texas. The recruiting classes are improving, but it's not showing up on the field yet. The Big 12 is deep this year and while there are a few cupcakes, each week is going to be a challenge. I don't know if the defense is ready for the challenge. Good value with the under here.

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Predicted Record: 5-7

Related: Examining the Over/Under 2016 Win Totals for the Big 12

Stanford (Under 8 +150/Under 8.5 -110)

Wins: Kansas State, USC, Washington State, Colorado, Oregon State, @ California, Rice

Losses: @ UCLA, @ Washington, @ Notre Dame, @ Arizona, @ Oregon

Heisman Trophy runner-up Christian McCaffrey is a great place to start for Stanford, but the Cardinal have questions at quarterback and on defense where they have to replace a bunch of starters. Expectations remain high in Palo Alto, but David Shaw’s team has arguably the toughest slate of conference road games in the Pac-12. I'm not quite as high on the Cardinal.

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Predicted Record: 7-5

Related: Examining the Over/Under 2016 Win Totals for the Pac-12 North

Arkansas (Under 7 +125)

Wins: Louisiana Tech, @ TCU, Texas State, Alcorn State, Florida, @ Mississippi State

Losses: Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss, @ Auburn, LSU, @ Missouri

I'm a seller on the Razorbacks. The team is replacing a lot on offense with Brandon Allen, Alex Collins and Hunter Henry all departing. The defense returns a lot from last year, but they were pretty bad against the pass. The schedule is tough, but a lot of those games are at home which is why there is value with the under here.

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Predicted Record: 6-6

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.