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Betting Against the Spread: College Football Week 11 Picks

Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State Spartans

A 5-4 record last week got me into the black for the season and I am going to screw it all up this week by picking the six massive national showdowns.

I will toss in a few top picks, as usual, but this week is too big not to take a shot at greatness by trying to beat the best.

Additionally, I've taken a small lead among Athlon Sports editors picking every Top 25 game against the spread. (I am very proud.)

Last Week: 5-4

Year-to-Date: 37-36-1

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Ohio St (+3.5) at Michigan St

Of all of the biggest games this weekend, I like the Spartans more than anyone else. JT Barrett has struggled against the two best defenses he’s faced this year (Va. Tech, PSU) and will do the same against Michigan State. Both teams are strong against the number but this seems like a small number. Prediction: Michigan State -3.5

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Kansas St (+6) at TCU

This is actually a bad matchup for the Horned Frogs. Kansas State is physical and tough and will run downhill on both sides of the ball while TCU plays more of a finesse game these days. The Wildcats are 6-2 against the number and could win outright. Prediction: Kansas State +6

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Alabama (-6.5) at LSU

Where on the field does LSU have better personnel than Alabama? Kicker? Punter? Maybe a few O-linemen? Other than being played in Baton Rouge, nothing about this game says LSU can win. Being just under seven points gives me the confidence to take the Tide to roll. Prediction: Alabama -6.5

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Notre Dame (+2.5) at Arizona St

The Irish may be a touch underrated and the Sun Devils appear to be overrated in the rankings. Notre Dame won this meeting last year against a better ASU team with Tommy Rees under center. Everett Golson is the difference maker. Take the Irish to win outright. Prediction: Notre Dame +2.5

Oregon (-8) at Utah

This feels like a big number, Utah is among the nation’s best teams against the spread (7-1) and they are at home. And the Utes' defensive line is one of the best in the nation. So why am I taking the Ducks? Call it a gut feeling about the team that might be playing the best football in the nation. Prediction: Oregon -8

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Baylor (+5.5) at Oklahoma

Oklahoma has never lost at home to Baylor (0-11) and is looking for revenge after getting embarrassed last season. Look for the Sooners to blitz like crazy and put as much pressure on Bryce Petty as possible and Oklahoma should have the upper hand against a depleted Bears’ offensive line. Prediction: Oklahoma -5.5

Other, real-er top picks:

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Duke (-3.5) at Syracuse

The Blue Devils are rolling right now and the Cuse is struggling. Duke is 6-2 against the number and has back-to-back ACC Coastal Division crowns squarely in its sights. Take the lowest ranked one-loss Big 5 team in the nation to win big in the Carrier Dome. Prediction: Duke -3.5

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Penn St (-6.5) at Indiana

The Hoosiers' offensive has come to a screeching halt since losing QB Nate Sudfeld and PSU is one of the best defenses in the nation. And the Penn State offense might actually be able to move the ball against the lowly Indiana defense. Prediction: Penn State -6.5

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Iowa (pk) at Minnesota

Iowa's offensive balance gives the Hawkeyes a slight edge despite being the visiting team. The Golden Gophers might be too one-dimensional for an Iowa team that played arguably its best game of the year last weekend. Prediction: Iowa

Top 25 Picks ATS:

Top 25

Braden Gall

Mitch Light

David Fox

Steven Lassan

Virginia (+19) at FSU

Texas A&M (+21.5) at Auburn

Oregon (-8) at Utah

Alabama (-6.5) at LSU

Kansas St (+6) at TCU

Ohio St (+3.5) at Mich. St

N. Dame (+2.5) at Arizona St

Baylor (+5.5) at Oklahoma

UCLA (-4.5) at Washington

Colorado (+17) at Arizona

Georgia (-10.5) at Kentucky

Duke (-3.5) at Syracuse

W. Virginia (-4) at Texas

Georgia Tech (-3.5) at NC State

Last Week:

8-7

7-8

5-10

6-9

YTD:

78-72-4

75-75-4

69-81-4

76-74-4