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Betting Against the Spread: College Football Week 13 Picks

Missouri Tigers

Missouri Tigers

I was 3-4 with top picks and 3-3 in trendy picks last week and it has dropped me below .500 for the first time all season. And I’m not sure where to go this weekend to make up for it.

You’ll notice one of two themes this weekend in college football. A) Huge point spreads in top 25 mismatches and B) Impossibly difficult to predict rivalry games with heavy title implications. This might be a good week to sit on the bench.

So I'm going to try the underdogs...

Last Week: 6-7

Year-to-Date: 44-45-1

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Missouri (+4) at Tennessee

The Tigers are playing for a trip to the SEC Championship Game and Tennessee is missing its two most important leaders on defense (A.J. Johnson, Brian Randolph for the first half). Mizzou has won nine straight true road games outright and should be able to win the line of scrimmage battle on both sides. Prediction: Missouri +4

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Ole Miss (-3) at Arkansas

The Rebels are a much more balanced offensive team than LSU and should be able to take advantage of the Hogs' defensive issues more so than the Tigers. Ole Miss is 6-3-1 against the number this year and Arkansas could be exhaling after finally winning an SEC game under Bret Bielema. Prediction: Ole Miss -3

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Maryland (+5.5) at Michigan

Laying 5.5 points means Michigan must score six to win and that has been easier said than done this year. The Wolverines scored 10 points against Northwestern, 11 against Michigan State and 18 against Penn State in three of the last four games. Look for a low-scoring affair in Ann Arbor. Prediction: Maryland +5.5

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Boston College (+19.5) at Florida St

This was Florida State’s toughest game of the year last fall and while the game isn’t in Chestnut Hill and isn’t featuring Andre Williams, the points are still too much to pass up. The Noles don’t blow people out and are 3-7 against the spread this season. Prediction: Boston College +19.5

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Stanford (-6) at Cal

Cal is 7-3 against the spread and is playing its archrival at home with a shot at going to a bowl game. The Bears need no more motivation than that. Stanford struggles to score and has struggled to cover (4-6 ATS this year). Take Cal to cover and possibly win outright. Prediction: Cal +6

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Air Force (+5.5) at San Diego St

The Falcons have won four in a row, seven of their last eight overall and are posting big numbers on offense in the process (37.8 ppg in last four). The Aztecs have lost two of their last three and AFA could win outright. Prediction: Air Force +5.5

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W. Michigan (+1) at C. Michigan

This is a pure trend pick as WMU is leading the nation with a 9-1 record against the spread. Central has a decent defense but is 5-6 against the spread this year and I’m not going against the trend. Play with caution. Prediction: W. Michigan +1

Top 25 Picks ATS:

Top 25

Braden Gall

Mitch Light

David Fox

Steven Lassan

Colorado (+32.5) at Oregon

B. College (+19) at Florida St

Vanderbilt (+30) at Miss. St

Indiana (+34.5) at Ohio St

Okla. St (+28.5) at Baylor

Ole Miss (-3) at Arkansas

USC (+3.5) at UCLA

Rutgers (+22) at Mich. St

Wash. St (+16) at Ariz. St

Arizona (+4) at Utah

Wisconsin (-10) at Iowa

Missouri (+4) at Tennessee

Kansas (+25) at Okla.

Minnesota (+10) at Nebraska

Georgia St (+40.5) at Clemson

Louisville (+3) at Notre Dame

Last Week:

4-11

8-7

4-11

6-9

YTD:

90-89-4

94-85-4

80-99-4

88-91-4