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Betting Against the Spread: College Football 2014 Week 4 Picks

Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas Razorbacks

I really wanted to take Mizzou (-10) and Washington (-14) last weekend but couldn’t pull the trigger and it cost me… again.

I am teetering around .500 and need a big week to bounce back. The good news is Mitch Light (27-18-1) has been crushing the Top 25 (below), while I have had a winning record each week in Top 25 picks (25-20-1).

I'm going to shake it up this week and only address the big games (and a few others) and see if it works.

Last Week: 3-4

Year-to-Date: 8-10

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Florida (+15) at Alabama

The Tide is a better team; there is no arguing that. But this game would have to be pretty high scoring for Alabama to cover the spread. Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel operates a type of offense that has worked against Bama in the past, and the Tide is 0-3 against the number this season. Alabama wins easily — by 10 points. Prediction: Florida +15

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Oklahoma (-7) at West Virginia

This game has gotten a lot more run nationally than expected and lends me to believe that Oklahoma will be ready. The Sooners should dominate the line of scrimmage and has the secondary to slow down the WVU passing attack. Seven doesn’t feel like enough points here at all. Everyone is taking the Mountaineers, so I am going the other way. Prediction: Oklahoma -7

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Mississippi St (+10) at LSU

Historically, State has struggled mightily in Baton Rouge and against LSU overall. But this is Dan Mullen’s best team and the Tigers are extremely young. Additionally, LSU hasn’t faced an opposing quarterback that is even in the same conversation as Dak Prescott. LSU wins with some Les Miles magic late but it will be a battle to the end. Prediction: Mississippi State +10

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Indiana (+13.5) at Missouri

Very quietly, the Mizzou Tigers have blown out two quality opponents and covered the spread the last two weeks. Indiana is a nice team — better than the Sam Houston States of the world — but the Tigers operate on a different level along both lines of scrimmage and at quarterback. Mizzou big against an IU team that is winless against the number this year. Predictions: Mizzou -13.5

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N. Illinois (+13.5) at Arkansas

There will be a lot of rushing yards in this game and the over is looking nice (65). Arkansas should dominate the line of scrimmage exactly the way it did last weekend against Texas Tech. Look for a similar score as well — something in that 49-28 range. Prediction: Arkansas -13.5

Top 25 Picks ATS:

Top 25

Braden Gall

 

Mitch Light

David Fox

Steven Lassan

Clemson (+16) at Florida St

 

Oregon (-24) at Wazzu

 

Florida (+15) at Alabama

 

Oklahoma (-7) at W. Virginia

 

Texas A&M (-33.5) at SMU

 

Mississippi St (+10) at LSU

 

E. Michigan (+45) at Michigan St

 

Troy (+41) at Georgia

 

S. Carolina (-21.5) at Vanderbilt

 

Indiana (+13.5) at Missouri

 

B. Green (+27) at Wisconsin

 

Virginia (+14) at BYU

 

Miami (+7) at Nebraska

 

Last Week:

9-7-1

 

7-9-1

6-10-1

7-9-1

YTD:

25-20-1

 

27- 18-1

20-25-1

21-24-1