Finally, a winning record. I am still hovering around .500 and need to continue to post winning records to get above the break-even point.
Again, the good news is I hope you are looking at Mitch Light’s Top 25 picks. He is smoldering hot this season at 36-22-1 against the spread for all Top 25 games this season. (I am holding my own at 32-26-1.)
On to Week 5, which is loaded with a whole bunch of intriguing conference games. I’m taking you deep into the smaller leagues this weekend, so hold on…
Last Week: 3-2
Baylor (-21) at Iowa St
The Bears are 3-0 against the number thus far in 2014 and it should cover once again. The Cyclones have played Baylor tough at home under Paul Rhoads but this is a different Bears squad — one that is getting healthy with names like Antwan Goodley returning to the lineup. This is Baylor’s toughest game to date but has won three times by 50.3 points. Prediction: Baylor -21
Notre Dame (-9) vs. Syracuse (East Rutherford, NJ)
Brian Kelly has had two weeks to prepare for the Orange and not having to play in the Carrier Dome will help as well. The Irish are a significantly more talented team and should be able to run away and hide with relative ease against an overmatched opponent. Prediction: Notre Dame -9
Middle Tennessee (+3.5) at Old Dominion
Old Dominion won its first C-USA game last weekend at Rice but now must face a MTSU team that can score big points of its own behind quarterback Austin Grammer. The Blue Raiders scored 61 in the opener and 50 against Western Kentucky and should be able to score in bunches against ODU. Prediction: MTSU +3.5
Nevada (-4.5) at San Jose St
The Wolf Pack has been very competitive against Pac-12 teams, so handling San Jose State shouldn’t be an issue for Nevada. Beating Wazzu and nearly beating Arizona indicates that this Nevada team is a darn solid team. Prediction: Nevada -4.5
Texas St (+3) at Tulsa
The Golden Hurricane have been really, really bad this year. They’ve lost to Oklahoma by 45 and to FAU by 29 — the latter being much more disturbing. Texas State has played Illinois and Navy tough in two losses and could easily win this one outright. Predictions: Texas State +3
Bonus: Take road dogs in important games
Missouri (+5.5) at South Carolina
Maty Mauk should be able to take advantage of the issues in South Carolina's secondary. Someone knows something about this line so I’ll take the smart money.
Arkansas (+9.5) vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, TX)
It’s not a true road game for the Hogs but their running game should be capable of challenging the Aggies' front seven. Take the over and the underdog to cover.
Oregon State (+9.5) at USC
This game is always close and USC has major depth and defensive issues. Sean Mannion should be able to exploit this depleted defense and it seems like too many points.
Duke (+7.5) at Miami
The Blue Devils are a quality team and the atmosphere won’t be challenging at all. This number seems way too high for a defending division champ.
Maryland (+4.5) at Indiana
Yes, this is a sneaky meaningful game in the Big Ten and the Terps are surging on offense. Take the over and the Terps to cover.
Top 25 Picks ATS:
Florida St (-19) at NC State
La. Tech (+32.5) at Auburn
Arkansas (+9.5) vs Texas A&M
Baylor (-21) at Iowa St
Notre Dame (-9) at Syracuse
Wyoming (+31) at Michigan St
Memphis (+19) at Ole Miss
Tennessee (+17) at Georgia
Missouri (+5.5) at S. Carolina
Stanford (-8) at Washington
N. Mex. St (+42.5) at LSU
Oregon St (+9.5) at USC
USF (+34) at Wisconsin
Illinois (+20) at Nebraska
Cincinnati (+15) at Ohio St
UTEP (+26) at Kansas St