Skip to main content

Betting Against the Spread: College Football Week 11 Picks and Odds


It's not the best week in terms of college football matchups across the board, but sometimes that means there is some great value with a team playing in an under-the-radar pairing. Don't forget about the teams that need style points and the few Heisman Trophy candidates who need them as well. There are some high spreads and high totals in week 11.

Image placeholder title

Record: 29-25 (3-3 last week)

Note: All games are on Saturday, Nov. 12 and times are ET.

Louisiana-Monroe (3-6) at Georgia State (2-7), 2 p.m.

Georgia State is pretty good for a two-win football team. The Panthers’ offense has struggled terribly all year with scoring points. That's an issue that could get solved against ULM, who allows 491.4 yards per game. The Warhawks have lost by 41, 42 and 51 points in their last three road games to Auburn, New Mexico and Arkansas State. This will be their third road matchup in the last four weeks so they may get a bit weary. The Panthers have clamped down defensively on their opponents especially against the pass with Texas State the only one to get to 300 yards through the air. GSU has covered in six of its nine games this season. The Panthers also have gone under in seven contests. I think this one goes under the total and I lean as well to the home team. SELECTION: Under 52

Miami (5-4) at Virginia (2-7), 2 p.m.

The Hurricanes have lost four of their last five and now head to Charlottesville to play the Cavaliers. Virginia has hit rock bottom, having lost four straight games including three at home. The Cavaliers’ defense has taken steps back, but I still have some sort of faith in this one. The ‘Canes are fragile mentally with their losing streak starting because of a missed extra point. If UVA can find any semblance of an offense, the home team can keep this one close. This is a Cavaliers squad that is 20-12 ATS the last three seasons, including 18-6 as an underdog. They have covered 12 of their last 21 ACC games as well. Miami has covered only five of its last 13 in this series. SELECTION: Virginia +10.5

Image placeholder title

UTEP (3-6) at Florida Atlantic (2-7), 6 p.m.

Two of the worst teams in Conference USA play in this one. The Miners have won two of their last three behind running back Aaron Jones. FAU has had massive problems stopping the run this year, allowing multiple teams to put up more than 200 yards on the ground. The Owls’ offense is very inconsistent. UTEP has actually played the pass pretty well holding each of the last seven opponents to fewer than 270 yards through the air. I can't imagine there is much of a home-field advantage for FAU, who has just two wins on the season. The Owls have been favored 12 times the last three years and have not covered a single game. They also have failed to cover in 19 of their last 33 overall. SELECTION: UTEP +3

Image placeholder title

LSU (5-3) at Arkansas (6-3), 7 p.m.

For the second straight week, Arkansas hopes to play spoiler as LSU comes to town. The Razorbacks dominated Florida last time out with a stifling defense and a balanced offense. The Tigers enter the game after struggling horribly on offense against Alabama. You have to wonder if there will be a hangover for LSU who will hope to have more success with Leonard Fournette. Arkansas has had its issues against the run all year long, but without a passing attack to threaten, maybe the Hogs stack the box. The Razorbacks won 31-14 in Death Valley last year as a 6.5-point underdog. The Tigers have covered just two of their last nine road games and have played just one true road contest this season, losing 18-13 at Auburn. SELECTION: Arkansas +7

Image placeholder title

Colorado State (5-4) at Air Force (6-3), 10:15 p.m.

Air Force is bringing back another Commander-in-Chief's Trophy after a dominating win over Army last time out. The Falcons should be getting quarterback Nate Romine back to lead the way for this offense, which is averaging nearly 300 rushing yards per game. This academy also plays pretty good defense, allowing just 336.6 yards per contest. Colorado State is in good form having won three of its last four, but it has been a combination of bad teams and home contests for the most part. The Rams want to run the ball, but could find that difficult against an Air Force defense that has allowed a total of 256 rushing yards over the last three weeks. The Falcons have covered 12 of their last 16 games at home including seven straight when the total is 49.5 to 56. They are a very good November team, winning eight of their last 10 outright in the month. SELECTION: Air Force -5

Image placeholder title


— I'm pretty sure Cincinnati is one of those teams that have given up on their coach and the rest of the season. The Bearcats have lost their last two games and the offense has been anemic in those contests. Gunner Kiel is back at quarterback and he's not the answer. UCF has won four of its last six games and has been an ATS monster all year long. Cincy is 2-7 ATS while the Knights are 7-2. For some reason though, I just can't quite pull the trigger on the home team.

Image placeholder title

— I think Baylor also has mailed it in for the rest of this season after last week’s protest of the firing of former head coach Art Briles resulted in a 62-22 home loss to TCU. Now the Bears go to Norman to play Oklahoma, a team equally capable of hanging 60 or more points on them. The question is do the Bears have any fight left in them for on-the-field matters? I don't think they do, but the Sooners’ defense has been pretty generous this season.

— One of the things handicappers like to use is the rule that in a low total game, you have to consider the underdog. The Illinois/Wisconsin contest is Wisconsin -26 or so with a total of 39. The margin of error in this one is very small especially if the Illini score any points at all. This team is flying high off a win over Michigan State, but they've struggled on the road. I can't bring myself to making it an official pick, but the road team is worth a look.

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.