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Big 12 Football: Examining Over/Under Win Totals for the 2022 Season

Brent Venables, Oklahoma Sooners Football

Even though new head coach Brent Venables has big shoes to fill at Oklahoma and is dealing with a reshuffled roster, the Sooners enter this season as the favorites in the Big 12.

Much like the other conferences, the Big 12 will look completely different next year. Several schools shuffle in while Texas and Oklahoma get set to depart for the SEC. Baylor was your conference champion in 2021, knocking off Oklahoma State 21-16 in the title game. This year we could see some of the same although the Sooners hope to capture something with a new coaching staff and UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel taking over at quarterback.

Related: Big 12 Football 2022 Predictions 

(Win totals provided by Draftkings)

Baylor (Over 7.5 -150...Under 7.5 +130)

Non-Conference Games: Albany, at BYU, Texas State
Schedule Notes: The BYU game in week two is an interesting one after these two played a 38-24 contest in Waco last season. The Bears have a very tough conference road slate with trips to Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas. They also have to play three of four on the road beginning in mid-October.
QB: Blake Shapen
Roster Notes: Dave Aranda had a fantastic 2021 campaign, going 12-2 and winning the Big 12 and the Sugar Bowl. Shapen was fantastic in that conference championship game and won the starting job in the spring, which resulted in Gerry Bohanon transferring to USF. The backfield loses Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner, but the hope is Taye McWilliams can take over and produce. The WR corps is also shuffling in some new players replacing Tyquan Thornton and RJ Sneed. The defense has six starters returning with the secondary being a focal point with so much youth and inexperience.

Prediction: The number might be a little high, but I came up with 7-8 wins.

Iowa State (Over 6.5 -110...Under 6.5 -110)

Non-Conference Games: Southeast Missouri State, at Iowa, Ohio
Schedule Notes: The Cyclones have four of their first six at home which should help things a little considering the roster turnover. Ames will always be a tough place to play so getting Oklahoma, Kansas State and Baylor there will help out.
QB: Hunter Dekkers
Roster Notes: The Cyclone offense will have a tremendously different look with Brock Purdy, Breece Hall and Charlie Kolar all gone. Those three accounted for pretty much all of the offense last season when Iowa State finished a disappointing 7-6. Attempting to replace Purdy will be Dekkers, who has thrown all of 36 passes in his short career. Xavier Hutchinson figures to be the  No. 1 target while Jirehl Brock takes over at running back. The defense has three starters returning in DE Will McDonald (11.5 sacks), MLB O'Rien Vance (36 tackles), and FS Anthony Johnson (55 tackles).

Prediction: Solid number with a slight lean to the under.

Kansas (Over 2.5 -135...Under 2.5 +115)

Non-Conference Games: Tennessee Tech, at Houston, Duke
Schedule Notes: There are two opportunities for non-conference wins for the Jayhawks, a program that has produced a total of 18 wins over the last 10 seasons combined. Oklahoma State and Texas come to Lawrence with road trips to Oklahoma and Baylor as well to face in-state rival Kansas State to finish the slate off.
QB: Jalon Daniels
Roster Notes: The offense showed a pulse with Daniels under center. KU scored 28-plus points in the final three contests and hopes to build off that with nine starters back on offense. Kwame Lassiter is the only WR gone so continuity should occur. The defense gave up 30 or more points to every FBS opponent. Coordinator Brian Borland has to get more from his side of the ball if the Jayhawks hope to win another conference game.

Prediction: Slight lean to the over only because I think the Jayhawks upset Iowa State on Oct. 1.

Kansas State (Over 6.5 -170...Under 6.5 +145)

Non-Conference Games: South Dakota, Missouri, Tulane
Schedule Notes: The Wildcats open up with three home contests before traveling to Oklahoma to start Big 12 play. They have road trips to Baylor and West Virginia back-to-back, but host Oklahoma State and Texas prior.
QB: Adrian Martinez
Roster Notes: Martinez missed spring practice, but figures to start for K-State. We know about his potential, but we also know about the small turnover issue he had last year with Nebraska. Deuce Vaughn ran for more than 1,400 yards last season and could do that again if the retooled offensive line gels and holds up. Four of the top six wide receivers return so this side of the ball could succeed if Martinez makes it work. The defensive front seven should be strong, especially with the return of Felix Anudike-Uzomah.

Prediction: Shop around because I agree with the move to the over but I'm never taking -170.

Oklahoma (Over 9.5 +100...Under 9.5 -120)

Non-Conference Games: UTEP, Kent State, at Nebraska
Schedule Notes: With so many new pieces in place, it's a solid start to the season for the Sooners. They have some potential landmine games on the road in the second half, playing at Iowa State and West Virginia. OU does get Bedlam at home as well as a sneaky game against Kansas State.
QB: UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel
Roster Notes: Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables takes over for Lincoln Riley, who left for USC and took a lot of coaches and players with him. The offense was so spectacular under Riley so we'll see if it can continue there under new OC Jeff Lebby, who previously was at Ole Miss and UCF. Gabriel and Lebby spent some time with the Knights together so that could help the transition. The WR group is pretty solid with Theo Wease, Marvin Mims and Drake Stoops. The offensive line lost a few pieces but added some P5 transfers. Venables figures to do some solid work with the defense that has just five starters back.

Prediction: Slight lean to the under.

Oklahoma State (Over 8.5 +105...Under 8.5 -125)

Non-Conference Games: Central Michigan, Arizona State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Schedule Notes: It's a really easy start for the Cowboys as they don't leave home the first month of the season. Things turn tough after that as they have road trips to Baylor, TCU and Kansas State in October.
QB: Spencer Sanders
Roster Notes: Sanders is a really capable starter, but he has to cut down on the interceptions that come at awful times. The signal-caller tossed 20 touchdowns vs. 12 interceptions last season, but seven of those picks came in two games against Baylor. The team's leading rusher and receiver are gone, but there are viable backups at both positions. Dominic Richardson ran for 4.7 yards per carry in limited work while Brennan Pressley had more than 600 receiving yards. The defense was so good last year, but only four starters return with three of those up front and one in the secondary. The biggest loss though is probably coordinator Jim Knowles who went to Ohio State but head coach Mike Gundy made a wise move by hiring former Vanderbilt head coach (and Auburn DC last season) Derek Mason.

Prediction: Agree with the under.

TCU (Over 6.5 -140...Under 6.5 +120)

Non-Conference Games: at Colorado, Tarleton State, at SMU
Schedule Notes: The Horned Frogs alternate road and home games for almost the first month of the season before two straight in Fort Worth against Oklahoma State and Kansas State. They get Texas and Baylor on the road back-to-back in November.
QB Battle: Max Duggan vs. Chandler Morris
Roster Notes: Sonny Dykes takes over for Gary Patterson, so TCU is starting over in many ways. There are 18 starters back, but it all starts at QB. Duggan was pretty solid with 16 touchdown passes vs. six interceptions, but Morris also showed potential when he got an opportunity. There's a ton of talent at the skill positions but running back Kendre Miller has some big shoes to fill following the transfer of Zach Evans (Ole Miss). The defense is now led by coordinator Joe Gillespie, who comes over from Tulsa. He's got nine of his top 12 tacklers returning from a highly successful 2021 campaign.

Prediction: I came up with 6-7 wins.

Texas (Over 8.5 EVEN...Under 8.5 -120)

Non-Conference Games: ULM, Alabama, UTSA
Schedule Notes: Things really pick up for the Longhorns when future conference foe Alabama comes to town in week two. It's a golden opportunity for Steve Sarkisian to get a signature win over his former boss and the program that's the gold standard these days. Texas has just two true road games through the first eight weeks of the season.
QB Battle: Hudson Card vs. Quinn Ewers
Roster Notes: The signal-caller battle will be intense as both guys bring something to the table. Card started the first two games last season before being replaced by Casey Thompson, who transferred to Nebraska. Card has some experience and showed flashes but Ewers is the heralded freshman who has returned to his native Texas after a year at Ohio State. Whoever is under center will be handing it off plenty to Bijan Robinson, a potential Heisman Trophy candidate. Plenty of wide receivers return and the offensive line doesn't lack for talent, so the offense could be potent if all the pieces come together. There are more questions on defense after this side of the ball struggled mightily last season. Texas also will be breaking in a new kicker and punter following the departure of All-Big 12 performer Cameron Dicker.

Prediction: Lean to the under.

Texas Tech (Over 5.5 -110...Under 5.5 -110)

Non-Conference Games: Murray State, Houston, at NC State
Schedule Notes: The Red Raiders get Houston at home for their second game after beating the Cougars 38-21 last season. The trip to Raleigh to face NC State begins a stretch of three of four on the road. After an Oct. 15 bye week, four of the final six games are in Lubbock.
QB: Tyler Shough
Roster Notes: Shough wasn't bad for this Red Raiders offense last season, but he got hurt and Henry Colombi and Donovan Smith took over. Colombi has transferred (Marshall) but Smith is back and after accounting for 10 touchdowns last season he has a shot at beating out Shough. The top three RBs return, which is good because the WR corps is without its top two targets. The defense returns a fair amount of starting experience but none of the top three tacklers from last season. Tim DeRuyter is the new defensive coordinator while OC Zach Kittley hopes to recreate the same success he had at WKU in 2021 for new head coach Joey McGuire.

Prediction: I like the under here. Might be my favorite play in the conference.

West Virginia (Over 5.5 -110...Under 5.5 -110)

Non-Conference Games: at Pitt, Towson, at Virginia Tech
Schedule Notes: Two huge rivalry road games take place in September as WVU travels to Pittsburgh and Blacksburg to face former Big East rivals. The Mountaineers host Baylor and Oklahoma and have to travel to Texas and Oklahoma State.
QB: Georgia transfer JT Daniels
Roster Notes: The offense should see an uptick in points with Graham Harrell directing the show as the new offensive coordinator. Harrell was at USC and North Texas and has experience with Daniels when both were with the Trojans. Losing Leddie Brown hurts big time, but there are some RB options to choose from. Three of the top five WRs are gone but the offensive line could be one of the best in the conference. The defense returns a handful of starters but has plenty of pieces to remain strong, especially if some of the younger guys grow up fast.

Prediction: Slight lean to the under. 

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.