Using the past to project the future has major flaws but in the case of the Heisman Trophy, the past can be extremely useful.
There are a few numbers college football fans need to know when it comes to the Heisman Trophy and how to handicap the race for the 2014 stiff-armed trophy.
First, quarterbacks have won the award four straight years and 12 of the last 14. Mark Ingram (2009) and Reggie Bush (2005) are the only running backs since the turn of the century to win the Heisman Trophy.
Second, only once in the nine-decade history of the award has anyone ever repeated. Ohio State’s Archie Griffin won in 1974 and was successful in defending his award the following year. Matt Leinart, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Mark Ingram and Johnny Manziel all failed to repeat in the last decade.
Third, only twice since Griffin has a conference won two consecutive Heisman Trophies. USC repeated with Leinart and Bush (2004-05) and the SEC did the same with Ingram and Cam Newton (2009-10). In fact, only twice since 1955 has a conference won consecutive Heismans with two different teams. UCLA’s Gary Beban and USC’s O.J. Simpson went back-to-back in 1967-68.
Finally, only one true defensive player (Charles Woodson) and only two wide receivers (Tim Brown, Desmond Howard) have ever won the award.
With this in mind, here are the Big 12’s front-runners to win the Heisman Trophy in 2014 (with current Bovada odds):
1. Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor (12/1)
There is no questioning who is the top Heisman candidate in the Big 12. The guy who scored 46 times and threw just three interceptions while winning his school’s first-ever Big 12 championship is the only place to start. Petty won’t have the same supporting cast this year but Art Briles' system is a proven commodity. If he can do something that’s never been done — Baylor winning at Oklahoma — then his numbers and team success will be enough to get him to New York.
2. Trevor Knight, QB, Oklahoma (16/1)
There were two Trevor Knights last year. The guy who played in the Sugar Bowl and the guy who played in every other game for Oklahoma. Knight has big-time, big-play ability and is leading the team who is clearly the front-runner to win the league and possibly land in the inaugural College Football Playoff. If he can stay healthy, he should post big numbers and win almost every game, making him an extremely viable Heisman candidate.
3. Davis Webb, QB, Texas Tech
He only played in 10 games but he finished No. 2 in yards (2,718) and touchdowns (20) as just a freshman in the Big 12 last year. Since every other person on campus who is capable of throwing a football has left Lubbock, Webb is now the star of the Kliff Kingsbury show. Look for massive numbers from the Tech QB and if he can pull a marquee upset (like, say, Texas or Oklahoma at home), Webb could find himself in national awards circles at season’s end.
4. Shock Linwood, RB, Baylor
The Bears had the Big 12’s leading rusher last year in Lache Seastrunk but also boasted the No. 6 rusher too. Linwood, a freshman last year, rushed for 881 yards and eight TDs on just 128 carries. Imagine what he could do with a year of seasoning and a full workload?
5. Jake Waters, QB, Kansas State
Waters really settled into the role of starter in the second half of last season, prompting a switch from Daniel Sams. Waters went 6-1 as a starter while throwing 14 of his 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions over the final seven games. If Kansas State makes a push for a Big 12 title and Waters builds on his quietly impressive 2013 campaign, he could find himself in the national conversation come season’s end.
6. Desmond Roland, RB, Oklahoma State
Roland led all Big 12 players with 13 rushing touchdowns last year. It was his first season as the starter for a team that has a track record of producing big numbers in the running game. Look for Roland to take another step this fall, as he will likely will become the focal point of the Pokes' normally very solid offense.
7. Antwan Goodley, WR, Baylor
The leading returning receiver in the Big 12 in terms of yards (1,339) and touchdowns (13) is Goodley. Those numbers were among the best in the league last fall and with Petty back and Tevin Reese gone, Goodley could be in for another monster season. Obviously, wideouts have a tough time gaining Heisman notoriety (especially, with a bona fide contender under center as a teammate) but he has the goods to be a national star in Waco.
8. Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State
One of the most explosive players in the nation returns to Manhattan for another year of long touchdowns and All-American production. He led the league at 105.2 yards per game last year as well as averaging 26.5 yards per kickoff return. He is Waters' favorite target and don’t be surprised if he is incorporated into a more versatile role this fall in an effort to utilize his unique skill set.
9. Keith Ford, RB, Oklahoma
The Sooners have had a long tradition of producing elite tailbacks and many in Norman are excited to hand the ball to Ford in a full-time capacity this season. He has the power, explosiveness, quickness and toughness to be a star in this league. He plays for a national front-runner and will have multiple shots in marquee showdowns to prove himself to the national audience. Look for big things from Ford this fall — as long as uber recruit Joe Mixon doesn’t steal too many carries.
10. Nick O’Toole’s Mustache
I can't do the West Virginia punter's facial hair justice so I will let the pictures do the talking. I mean, who wouldn't vote for this?
Others to consider: Aaron Wimbley, RB, Iowa State; Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray, RB, Texas; E.J. Bibbs, TE, Iowa State; Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma
Five defensive players who should but won’t be in the mix:
Eric Striker, LB, Oklahoma
The big-play linebacker plays all over the field. He constantly disrupts the opposing backfield and regularly imposes his will with physicality and explosiveness. He should build on his stat line from last year: 50 tackles, 10.6 TFL, 6.5 sacks.
Cedric Reed, DE, Texas
He is a massive part of the Longhorns' rebuilding project on defense, figuratively and literally. At 6-6 and 260 pounds, Reed towers above the competition regularly and his numbers back it up as well. He posted 77 tackles, 16.5 TFL and 10.0 sacks last year and should only be better this year.
Ryan Mueller, DE, Kansas State
Mueller is the top returning sack artist in the league after posting an impressive 11.5 QB takedowns last fall. On a loaded defensive line, Mueller should be able to gain national acclaim for his performance.
Quandre Diggs, CB, Texas
Fans in Austin have been waiting for Diggs to develop into the superstar many believed he’d become. He has all of the tools and some explosive ability to make big plays, he just needs to put it all together in his final season at Texas.
Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia
He posted 102 tackles as a freshman starter and added 68 stops last year as a sophomore. With two full seasons under his belt as a starter and a chance to be on the field ALL OF THE TIME, Joseph has a chance to make a name for himself nationally in 2014.