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Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Preview and Prediction: TCU vs. Ole Miss

Trevone Boykin

Trevone Boykin

College football’s new four-team playoff format added intrigue to the bowl schedule, and the anticipated New Year’s Six slate begins with a showdown between TCU and Ole Miss in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The Horned Frogs went into the last weekend of action as the No. 3 team in the college football playoff rankings but was jumped by Ohio State and Baylor in the final standings. Ole Miss spent some time in the top four of the committee rankings, and despite a couple of significant injuries, still finished 9-3 with a win over rival Mississippi State in the regular season finale.

TCU was one of the nation’s most improved squads in 2014. The Horned Frogs went 4-8 in 2013 but rebounded into playoff contention behind an offense that averaged 46.8 points per game. The seven-game jump in wins was largely due to the turnaround on offense and the development of quarterback Trevone Boykin. Ole Miss started 7-0 and suffered its first loss of the year at LSU on Oct. 25. After the defeat in Baton Rouge, the Rebels went 2-2 over their next four games, which included a 30-0 loss to Arkansas but a 31-17 win over Mississippi State. The Rebels have increased their win total in each of coach Hugh Freeze’s three seasons and posted their best SEC record (5-3) since 2008.

Ole Miss and TCU have met in six previous meetings. The Rebels own a 5-1 edge over the Horned Frogs. These two teams have not played since 1983. TCU’s only win over Ole Miss took place in 1949.

TCU vs. Ole Miss

Kickoff: Wednesday, Dec. 31 at 12:30 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Spread: TCU -3.5

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Three Things to Watch

1. TCU’s Pass Offense Against Ole Miss’ Secondary

Something has to give here. TCU recorded 332.8 passing yards per game and ranked 15th in the nation in pass attempts. Quarterback Trevone Boykin is one of the nation’s most-improved players and emerged as a Heisman contender after throwing for 30 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on 461 attempts. While Boykin had an outstanding regular season, the bowl matchup against Ole Miss will be the best defense he has played in 2014. The Rebels allowed only eight passing scores this season and only one opponent (Texas A&M) managed to pass for more than 300 yards against this defense. Cornerback Senquez Golson had a standout season by intercepting nine passes, while safety Cody Prewitt is among the best in the nation at his position. While the secondary is stingy, the success of Ole Miss’ defense starts up front with a talented defensive front. Boykin has been efficient (60.5 completion percentage and only seven interceptions) this season. However, the Rebels are the toughest defensive team he’s faced all year and will create problems at the point of attack and in the secondary.

2. Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace

Wallace has experienced his share of ups and downs in his Ole Miss career. The senior threw three interceptions in the opener against Boise State but threw for 251 yards and three touchdowns in an upset win over Alabama. Wallace struggled against LSU and Arkansas, yet made just enough plays (13 of 30 for 296 yards) to help Ole Miss knock off Mississippi State. The senior has played his share of tough defenses this season – Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Memphis and Mississippi State – and TCU will present another challenge on Dec. 31. Under the direction of coach Gary Patterson, the Horned Frogs are always among the nation’s best on defense. This unit led the Big 12 in scoring defense (20.3 ppg allowed) and limited opponents to 4.9 yards per play. TCU’s secondary missed shutdown cornerback Jason Verrett this year but still managed to make life difficult for opposing quarterbacks. The Horned Frogs held opposing passers to a 49 percent completion percentage and intercepted 23 passes in 2014. Three players from the secondary earned All-Big 12 accolades, as safety Chris Hackett garnered first-team awards by the conference after intercepting six passes. There’s little doubt Wallace will have a tough time moving the ball through the air against this defense. And that task was made even more challenging after receivers Vince Sanders and Laquon Treadwell suffered season-ending injuries. While Wallace has his hands full, moving the ball through the air has been the best offense for Ole Miss this defense. The Rebels don’t have a traditional rushing attack, so it’s critical Wallace has success early and often against TCU. Limiting mistakes and turnovers is a priority, but Freeze needs his senior to deliver in his final collegiate game.

3. The Offensive Lines

It’s an understatement, but winning the battle at the point of attack is critical for both teams on Dec. 31. Despite the departure of end Devonte Fields before the season started, TCU’s defensive line still managed 34 sacks in 2014. The Horned Frogs’ line has an advantage in the trenches against Ole Miss, as the Rebels will be without standout guard Aaron Morris and allowed 22 sacks in eight SEC games. Can the offensive line provide enough protection for Wallace to attack downfield? Or will Freeze look to get rid of the ball quickly on short passes to give the offensive line help? On the other side, TCU’s offensive line entered the year as a question mark but allowed only 16 sacks in nine Big 12 contests. The Horned Frogs have faced their share of solid defensive fronts this year, including Baylor, Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma. However, Ole Miss could have the best defensive line TCU has played in 2014. Ends C.J. Johnson and Marquis Haynes combined for 10.5 sacks, while tackle Robert Nkemdiche is a force on the interior.

Final Analysis

At the beginning of the season, not many expected TCU or Ole Miss to be in one of college football’s premier bowl games. However, fast forward a couple of months, and that’s exactly the scenario playing out in Atlanta on Dec. 31. The Horned Frogs and Rebels both spent time inside of the top four of the college football playoff committee rankings and should provide an entertaining matchup. Ole Miss needs a huge effort from its defense, as injuries will force the offense to lean even more on quarterback Bo Wallace. It may take a quarter for TCU’s offense to adjust to the fast, athletic and tough Rebels’ defense, but the Horned Frogs will simply have too much firepower. Expect Boykin to cap a breakout year with a solid performance, as TCU finishes the 2014 season with victory No. 12.

Prediction: TCU 34, Ole Miss 27