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College Fantasy Football: Using Vegas Odds to Determine Best Week 10 Plays


In the world of fantasy football, some team owners are relentless in their search for information that will give them a competitive edge over their competition.  Others just simply rely on projections from so-called experts, who try to convince everyone they have devised a computer program that accurately projects player stats by using a scientific formula so complicated that it makes the Drake equation seem elementary.  Eventually, those computer-driven computations prove no more accurate than an old-fashioned gut feeling.  However, in a quest to find a formula for fantasy success, one should just ask the question, “What are the odds?”

Quite simply, Vegas odds could give you all of the necessary insight to make smart roster decisions on a week-to-week basis.  In this weekly article, theCFFsite considers the point spreads and totals(over/under) in order to give our readers a unique perspective into some of the week’s most interesting fantasy matchups.

Week 10

Best Fantasy Matchups(Games with the most fantasy potential)

Kansas at Baylor

Line:Baylor -17(O/U-71)

Projected score based on point spread:  Baylor 44-27

Best plays:

Baylor (QB-Nick Florence, WR-Terrance Williams)

Kansas (RB-James Sims)

Also consider:

Baylor (RB-Jared Salubi, WRs-Tevin Reese, Lanear Sampson)

Kansas (RB-Tony Pierson)

theCFFsite projects:  Baylor 42-28

TCU at West Virginia

Line:West Virginia -7(O/U-68)

Projected score based on point spread:  West Virginia 38-30

Best plays:

TCU (QB-Trevone Boykin*-inj, WRs-Josh Boyce, LaDarius Brown)

West Virginia (QB-Geno Smith, WRs-Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey)

Also consider:

TCU (RBs-BJ Catalon, Matthew Tucker, K-Jaden Oberkrom)

West Virginia (RB-Andrew Buie)

theCFFsite projects: West Virginia 42-28

Houston at East Carolina

Line:  Houston -3.5(O/U-67)

Projected score based on point spread:  Houston 35-32

Best plays:

Houston (QB-David Piland, RB-Charles Sims)

East Carolina (QB-Shane Carden,  WR-Justin Hardy)

Also consider:

Houston (WRs-Daniel Spencer, Larry McDuffey, Deontay Greenberry)

East Carolina (RB-Vintavious Cooper)

theCFFsite projects: Houston 41-31

Arizona at UCLA

Line: UCLA -3(O/U-70)

Projected score based on point spread:  UCLA 37-34

Best plays:

UCLA (QB-Brett Hundley, RB-Johnathan Franklin)

Arizona (QB-Matt Scott, RB-KaDeem Carey, WR-Austin Hill)

Also consider:

UCLA (WR-Shaquelle Evans)

Arizona (WR-Dan Buckner)

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theCFFsite projects:  Arizona 31-30

One-Sided Matchups(Using the odds to find a dominating ‘D’)

Texas St at Utah St

Line:  Utah St -22(O/U-50.5)Utah St -26(O/U-53)

Projected score based on point spread:  Utah St 40-13

Stay away from:

Texas St (RB-Marcus Curry)

theCFFsite projects:Utah St 42-14

Hawaii at Fresno St

Line:  Fresno St -33.5(O/U-47)

Projected score based on point spread:  Fresno St 47-13

Stay away from:

Hawaii (RB-Will Gregory)

theCFFsite projects:Fresno St 45-14

Stanford at Colorado

Line:  Stanford -28(O/U-51)

Projected score based on point spread:  Stanford 40-11

Stay away from:

Colorado (RB-Christian Powell)

theCFFsite projects:Stanford 34-10

Massachusetts at Northern Illinois

Line:  NIU -35(O/U-56.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  46-10

Stay away from:

UMass (RB-Michael Cox)

theCFFsite projects:Northern Illinois 45-13

Must Watch Games(The games with the biggest headlines)

Alabama at LSU

Line:  Alabama -9.5(O/U-42.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Alabama 26-16

Outlook:  Considering how well Kansas State, Oregon, and Notre Dame are playing, a win by the Tigers could dampen the SEC’s chances of playing for another BCS Championship.  Death Valley will present the most hostile environment the Tide will play in all season, but the Tigers inconsistencies on offense will be their demise.

theCFFsite projects:Alabama 24-14

Oregon at USC

Line:  Oregon -7.5(O/U-70)

Projected score based on point spread:  Oregon 39-31

Outlook:  It’s scary to think what the Oregon offense can do if they stay on the field an entire sixty minutes, but the Duck’s defense will make a statement of their own and prove why they are one of the two best teams in the nation.

theCFFsite projects:  Oregon 63-24

theCFFsite in Must Watch games:

2012 Season:  Straight Up (17-13)  ATS: (12-18)

2011 Season:  Straight Up (40-9) ATS: (35-14)

By Joe DiSalvo,

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