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College Fantasy Football: Using Vegas Odds to Determine Best Week 11 Plays


In the world of fantasy football, some team owners are relentless in their search for information that will give them a competitive edge over their competition.  Others just simply rely on projections from so-called experts, who try to convince everyone they have devised a computer program that accurately projects player stats by using a scientific formula so complicated that it makes the Drake equation seem elementary.  Eventually, those computer-driven computations prove no more accurate than an old-fashioned gut feeling.  However, in a quest to find a formula for fantasy success, one should just ask the question, “What are the odds?”

Quite simply, Vegas odds could give you all of the necessary insight to make smart roster decisions on a week-to-week basis.  In this weekly article, theCFFsite considers the point spreads and totals(over/under) in order to give our readers a unique perspective into some of the week’s most interesting fantasy matchups.

Week 11

Best Fantasy Matchups(Games with the most fantasy potential)

Baylor at Oklahoma

Line:Oklahoma -21(O/U-77)

Projected score based on point spread:  Oklahoma 49-28

Best plays:

Baylor (QB-Nick Florence, WR-Terrance Williams)

Oklahoma (QB-Landry Jones, WR-Kenny Stills)

Also consider:

Baylor (RB-Jared Salubi, WRs-Tevin Reese, Lanear Sampson)

Oklahoma (RBs-Damien Williams or Brennan Clay, WR-Justin Brown)

theCFFsite projects: Oklahoma 42-28

West Virginia at Oklahoma St

Line:West Virginia -7.5(O/U79)

Projected score based on point spread:  Oklahoma St 44-36

Best plays:

Oklahoma St (RB-Joseph Randle, WRs-Charlie Moore, Josh Stewart, K-Quinn Sharp)

West Virginia (QB-Geno Smith, WRs-Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey)

Also consider:

Oklahoma St (QBs-Wes Lunt or Clint Chelf)

West Virginia (RB-Andrew Buie)

theCFFsite projects: West Virginia 34-31

Marshall at UAB

Line: Marshall -3(O/U-74.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Marshall 39-36

Best plays:

Marshall (QB-Rakeem Cato, WRs-Tommy Shuler, Antavious Wilson)

UAB (RB-Darrin Reaves)

Also consider:

Marshall (WR-Aaron Dobson, TE-Gator Hoskins)

UAB (QB-Austin Brown, WR-Jackie Williams)

theCFFsite projects: Marshall 38-24

One-Sided Matchups(Using the odds to find a dominating ‘D’)

Maryland at Clemson

Line:  Clemson -31.5(O/U-55)

Projected score based on point spread:  Clemson 44-12

Stay away from:

Maryland (RB-Wes Brown)

theCFFsite projects:  Clemson 45-14

Louisiana at Florida

Line:  Florida -26(O/U-50.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Florida 39-12

Stay away from:

Louisiana (QB-Terrance Broadway)

theCFFsite projects:Florida 38-10

Idaho at BYU

Line:  BYU -38(O/U-49)

Projected score based on point spread:  BYU 44-5

Stay away from:

Idaho (WR-Mike Scott)

theCFFsite projects: BYU 42-7

Must Watch Games(The games with the biggest headlines)

Texas A&M at Alabama

Line:  Alabama -13.5(O/U-56.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Alabama 35-31

Outlook:  The Week 11 schedule is void of any marquee matchups, but this may be the most interesting contest of the weekend because we are extremely interested in watching Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel against the Alabama defense.  It should be fun for a while, but the Tide will eventually wear down the Aggies in Tuscaloosa before shifting their sites onto the SEC Championship Game.

theCFFsite projects: Alabama 38-24

theCFFsite in Must Watch games:

2012 Season:  Straight Up (19-13)  ATS: (13-19)

2011 Season:  Straight Up (40-9) ATS: (35-14)

by Joe DiSalvo,

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