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College Fantasy Football: Using Vegas Odds to Determine Best Week 5 Plays


In the world of fantasy football, some team owners are relentless in their search for information that will give them a competitive edge over their competition.  Others just simply rely on projections from so-called experts, who try to convince everyone they have devised a computer program that accurately projects player stats by using a scientific formula so complicated that it makes the Drake equation seem elementary.  Eventually, those computer-driven computations prove no more accurate than an old-fashioned gut feeling.  However, in a quest to find a formula for fantasy success, one should just ask the question, “What are the odds?”

Quite simply, Vegas odds could give you all of the necessary insight to make smart roster decisions on a week-to-week basis.  In this weekly article, theCFFsite considers the point spreads and totals(over/under) in order to give our readers a unique perspective into some of the week’s most interesting fantasy matchups.

Week 5

Best Fantasy Matchups (Games with the most fantasy potential)

Baylor at West Virginia

Line:West Virginia – 12.5(O/U-79.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  West Virginia 46-34

Best plays:

Baylor (QB-Nick Florence, WR-Terrence Williams, Tevin Reese, K-Aaron Jones)

West Virginia (QB-Geno Smith, WRs-Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, K-Tyler Bitancurt)

Also consider:

Baylor (RB-Glasco Martin, WR-Lanear Sampson)

West Virginia (RBs-Shawne Alston, Andrew Buie)

theCFFsite projects: West Virginia 38-28

Houston at Rice

Line:  Houston -5 (O/U-74)

Best plays:

Houston (QB-David Piland, RB-Charles Sims, WRs-Dewayne Peace, Daniel Spencer)

Rice (QB-Taylor McHargue-inj, K-Chris Boswell)

Also consider:

Houston (K-Matt Hogan)

Rice (RB-Turner Petersen, WR-Jordan Taylor)

theCFFsite projects:  Houston 41-30

Fresno St at Tulsa

Line: Tulsa -5.5(O/U-69.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Tulsa 38-32

Best plays:

Fresno St (QB-Derek Carr, RB-Robbie Rouse, WRs-Davante Adams, Isaiah Burse)

Tulsa (QB-Cody Green, WR-Keyarris Garrett)

Also consider:

Fresno St (K-Quentin Breshears)

Tulsa (RBs-Trey Watts, JaTerian Douglas)

theCFFsite projects:  Fresno St 35-34

Oregon at Washington St

Line:  Oregon -28.5(O/U-70.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Oregon 50-21

Best plays:

Washington St (QB-Connor Halliday, WRs-Marquess Wilson, Gabe Marks)

Oregon (QB-Marcus Mariota, RBs-Kenjon Barner, DeAnthony Thomas)

Also consider:

Washington St (WR-Isaiah Myers, K-Andrew Furney)

Oregon (TE-Colt Lyerla)

theCFFsite projects: Oregon 56-14

Marshall at Purdue

Line:  Purdue -15.5(O/U-64.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Purdue 40-25

Best plays:

Marshall (QB-Rakeem Cato, WRs-Aaron Dobson, Tommy Shuler)

Purdue (QB-Caleb TerBush, RB-Akeem Shavers, RB-Antavian Edison)

Also consider:

Marshall (RB-Kevin Grooms, K-Justin Haig)

Purdue (RB-Akeem Hunt, WR-OJ Ross)

theCFFsite projects:Marshall 31-28

Texas at Oklahoma St

Line:  Texas -2.5(O/U-66)

Projected score based on point spread:  Texas 34-32

Best plays:

Texas (RB-Malcolm Brown, WR-Mike Davis)

Oklahoma St (QB-JW Walsh, RB-Joseph Randle, WRs-Tracy Moore, Josh Cooper, TE-Blake Jackson, K-Quinn Sharp)

Also consider:

Texas (QB-David Ash, WR-Jaxon Shipley)

Oklahoma St (RB-Jeremy Smith)

theCFFsite projects: Oklahoma St 24-20

One-Sided Matchups(Using the odds to find a dominating ‘D’)

Ole Miss at Alabama

Line:  Alabama -31(O/U-54.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Alabama 43-12

Stay away from:

Ole Miss (QB-Bo Wallace, RB-Jeff Scott)

theCFFsite projects: Alabama 49-14

Boise St at New Mexico

Line:  Boise St -26.5(O/U-51.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Boise St 39-12

Stay away from:

New Mexico (All players)

theCFFsite projects:  Boise St 38-7

Hawaii at BYU

Line:  BYU -27.5(O/U-50.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  BYU 39-11

Stay away from:

Hawaii (QB-Sean Schroeder)

theCFFsite projects:  BYU 31-7

Buffalo at Connecticut

Line:  Connecticut -17.5(O/U-42.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Connecticut 30-12

Stay away from:

Buffalo (RB-Branden Oliver)

theCFFsite projects:Connecticut 28-7

South Carolina at Kentucky

Line:  South Carolina -21(O/U-47.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  South Carolina 35-13

Stay away from:

Kentucky (WR-La’Rod King)

theCFFsite projects: South Carolina 30-6

Must Watch Games (The games with the biggest headlines)

Ohio St at Michigan St

Line:  Michigan St -3(O/U-43.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Michigan St 23-20

Outlook:  Even though the Buckeyes are not eligible to win the conference and play in a bowl game, they may be the best team in the Big Ten.  However, Braxton Miller’s game-winning drive will come up as the Spartans’ defense will save the day in East Lansing.

theCFFsite projects:  Michigan St 21-17

Tennessee at Georgia

Line:  Georgia -13.5(O/U-61.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Georgia 38-24

Outlook:  Two teams headed in opposite directions, the Bulldogs will eventually impose their will and pull away late with their ground attack.

theCFFsite projects:  Georgia 34-21

Oregon St at Arizona

Line:  Arizona -3(O/U-56.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Arizona 30-27

Outlook:  The Wildcats are looking to rebound after an abysmal loss in Eugene last week, but the Beavers’ defense looks as if they are in mid-season form.

theCFFsite projects: Oregon St 31-24

Wisconsin at Nebraska

Line:  Nebraska -13.5(O/U-50.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Nebraska 32-19

Outlook:  Week Five’s slate of games must be weak when we feature two Big Ten games on our ‘Must Watch’ list, but it should be interesting to watch Rex Burkhead and Montee Ball in the same game.

theCFFsite projects:  Nebraska 31-14

theCFFsite in Must Watch games:

2012 Season:  Straight Up (7-4)  ATS: (6-5)

2011 Season:  Straight Up (40-9) ATS: (35-14)

By Joe DiSalvo,

Follow Joe on twitter (@theCFFsite)