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College Fantasy Football: Using Vegas Odds to Determine Best Week 6 Plays


In the world of fantasy football, some team owners are relentless in their search for information that will give them a competitive edge over their competition. Others just simply rely on projections from so-called experts, who try to convince everyone they have devised a computer program that accurately projects player stats by using a scientific formula so complicated that it makes the Drake equation seem elementary. Eventually, those computer-driven computations prove no more accurate than an old-fashioned gut feeling. However, in a quest to find a formula for fantasy success, one should just ask the question, “What are the odds?”

Quite simply, Vegas odds could give you all of the necessary insight to make smart roster decisions on a week-to-week basis.

In this weekly article, theCFFsite considers the point spreads and totals(over/under) in order to give our readers a unique perspective into some of the week’s most interesting fantasy matchups.

Week 6

Best Fantasy Matchups (Games with the most fantasy potential)

Georgia Tech at Clemson

Line: Clemson -10 (O/U-73.5)

Projected score based on point spread: Clemson 42-32

Best plays:

Georgia Tech (QB-Tevin Washington, RB-Orwin Smith)

Clemson (QB-Tajh Boyd, RB-Andre Ellington, WRs-Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, TE-Brandon Ford)

Also consider:

Georgia Tech (RB-Zach Laskey)

Clemson (K-Chandler Catanzaro)

theCFFsite projects: Clemson 49-28

Tulsa at Marshall

Line: Tulsa -3.5(O/U-67.5)

Projected score based on point spread: Tulsa 36-32

Best plays:

Tulsa (QB-Cody Green, RB-Alex Singleton, WR-Keyarris Garrett)

Marshall (QB-Rakeem Cato, WRs-Tommy Shuler, TE-Gator Hoskins)

Also consider:

Tulsa (RBs-Trey Watts, K-Daniel Schwarz)

Marshall (RB-Kevin Grooms, WRs-Aaron Dobson, Antavious Wilson)

theCFFsite projects: Tulsa 41-40

Northern Illinois at Ball St

Line: Northern Illinois -2.5(O/U-67.5)

Projected score based on point spread: NIU 35-32

Best plays:

Northern Illinois (QB-Jordan Lynch, RB-Leighton Settle)

Ball St (QB-Keith Wenning, WR-Willie Snead, K-Steven Schott)

Also consider:

Northern Illinois (WR-Martel Moore, K-Mathew Sims)

Ball St (RB-Jahwan Edwards, WR Jamill Smith)

theCFFsite projects: Northern Illinois 45-40

Louisiana-Monroe at Middle Tennessee

Line: LA-Monroe-3(O/U-66.5)

Projected score based on point spread: LA-Monroe 35-32

Best plays:

LA-Monroe (QB-Kolton Browning, RB-Jyruss Edwards, WR-Brent Leonard)

MTSU (QB-Logan Kilgore, RB-Ben Cunningham)

Also consider:

LA-Monroe (WR-Tavarese Maye)

MTSU (WR-Anthony Amos)

theCFFsite projects: LA-Monroe 45-28

Central Michigan at Toledo

Line: Toledo -10.5(O/U-66.5)

Projected score based on point spread: Toledo 39-28

Best plays:

Central Michigan (QB-Ryan Radcliff, RB-Zurlon Tipton, WR-Titus Davis)

Toledo (QB-Terrence Owens, RB-David Fluellen, WR-Bernard Reedy)

Also consider:

Central Michigan (WR-Cody Wilson)

Toledo (WR-Alonzo Russell)

theCFFsite projects: Toledo 42-31

One-Sided Matchups (Using the odds to find a dominating ‘D’)

Kansas at Kansas St

Line: Kansas St -24(O/U-53.5)

Projected score based on point spread: Kansas St 39-15

Stay away from:

Kansas (RB-James Sims)

theCFFsite projects: Kansas St 31-10

Michigan St at Indiana

Line: Michigan St -15.5(O/U-48)

Projected score based on point spread: Michigan St 32-16

Stay away from:

Indiana (RB-Stephen Houston)

theCFFsite projects: Michigan St 32-16

Tulane at Louisiana

Line: Louisiana -23.5(O/U-56.5)

Projected score based on point spread: Louisiana 40-16

Stay away from:

Tulane (RB-Orleans Darkwa)

theCFFsite projects: Louisiana 41-10

Connecticut at Rutgers

Line: Rutgers -9(O/U-40.5)

Projected score based on point spread: Rutgers 25-16

Stay away from:

Connecticut (RB-Lyle McCombs)

theCFFsite projects: Rutgers 24-13

Must Watch Games (The games with the biggest headlines)

Nebraska at Ohio St

Line: Ohio St -3.5(O/U-57.5)

Projected score based on point spread: Ohio St 31-27

Outlook: If the Nebraska team that showed up in the second half against Wisconsin plays four quarters in Columbus, the Buckeyes are in for a dogfight. However, the Cornhuskers’ inability to take care of the football will lead to too many easy scoring opportunities for Ohio State.

theCFFsite projects: Ohio St 27-24

West Virginia at Texas

Line: Texas -6.5(O/U-74.5)

Projected score based on point spread: Texas 41-34

Outlook: West Virginia’s Geno Smith comes into this contest as the early-season Heisman front-runner. If the senior quarterback can lead the Mountaineers to an impressive victory on the road, he’ll distance himself from the field.

theCFFsite projects: West Virginia 41-37

LSU at Florida

Line: LSU -2.5(O/U-44.5)

Projected score based on point spread: LSU 24-21

Outlook: The Gators have had two weeks to prepare for the Tigers, who have looked anything but impressive in their previous two games. Can Florida keep the LSU offense under wraps and put enough points on the board to upset the nation’s No. 3 ranked team?

theCFFsite projects: LSU 24-21

Georgia at South Carolina

Line: South Carolina -2.5(O/U-57)

Projected score based on point spread: South Carolina 30-27

Outlook: The Georgia offense is finely tuned right now and has enough explosive playmakers to go into Columbia and pull out a victory in a critical SEC East showdown.

theCFFsite projects: Georgia 31-28

theCFFsite in Must Watch games:

2012 Season: Straight Up (10-5) ATS: (8-7)

2011 Season: Straight Up (40-9) ATS: (35-14)

By Joe DiSalvo,

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