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College Fantasy Football: Using Vegas Odds to Determine Best Week 7 Plays


In the world of fantasy football, some team owners are relentless in their search for information that will give them a competitive edge over their competition.  Others just simply rely on projections from so-called experts, who try to convince everyone they have devised a computer program that accurately projects player stats by using a scientific formula so complicated that it makes the Drake equation seem elementary.  Eventually, those computer-driven computations prove no more accurate than an old-fashioned gut feeling.  However, in a quest to find a formula for fantasy success, one should just ask the question, “What are the odds?”

Quite simply, Vegas odds could give you all of the necessary insight to make smart roster decisions on a week-to-week basis.  In this weekly article, theCFFsite considers the point spreads and totals(over/under) in order to give our readers a unique perspective into some of the week’s most interesting fantasy matchups.

Week 7

Best Fantasy Matchups(Games with the most fantasy potential)

West Virginia at Texas Tech

Line:West Virginia -3.5(O/U-78)

Projected score based on point spread:  West Virginia 41-37

Best plays:

West Virginia (QB-Geno Smith, RB-Andrew Buie, WRs-Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey)

Texas Tech (QB-Seth Doege, RB-Eric Stephens, WRs-Darrin Moore, Eric Ward)

Also consider:

West Virginia (K-Tyler Bitancurt)

Texas Tech (TE-Jace Amaro)

theCFFsite projects:West Virginia 52-35

Oklahoma St at Kansas

Line: Oklahoma St -23(O/U-74.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Oklahoma St 49-25

Best plays:

Oklahoma St (QB-JW Walsh, RB-Joseph Randle, WR-Josh Stewart, K-Quinn Sharp)

Kansas (QB-Dayne Crist, RB-James Sims)

Also consider:

Oklahoma St (RB-Jeremy Smith, WR-Tracy Moore, TE-Blake Jackson)

Kansas (RB-Tony Pierson)

theCFFsite projects:  Oklahoma St 42-28

Western Michigan at Ball St

Line:Ball St -3(O/U-66)

Projected score based on point spread:  Ball St 35-32

Best plays:

Western Michigan (QB-Tyler Van Tubbergen, WR-Jaime Wilson)

Ball St (QB-Keith Wenning, WRs-Willie Snead, Jamill Smith, K-Steven Schott)

Also consider:

Western Michigan (RB-Dareyon Chance, WR-Josh Schaffer)

Ball St (RB-Jahwan Edwards)

theCFFsite projects: Western Michigan 35-31

North Carolina at Miami

Line:  North Carolina -6.5(O/U-69)

Projected score based on point spread:  UNC 38-31

Best plays:

North Carolina (QB-Bryn Renner, RB-Gio Bernard, TE-Eric Ebron, K-Casey Barth)

Miami (QB-Stephen Morris, RBs-Duke Johnson, WR-Philip Dorsett)

Also consider:

North Carolina (WRs-Erik Highsmith, Sean Tapley)

Miami (RB-Mike James)

theCFFsite projects:  UNC 38-30

Texas A&M at Louisiana Tech

Line:  Texas A&M -7.5(O/U-80)

Projected score based on point spread:  Texas A&M 44-36

Best plays:

Texas A&M (QB-Johnny Manziel, RB-Ben Malena, WRs-Ryan Swope, Mike Evans)

Louisiana Tech (QB-Colby Cameron, RB-Kenneth Dixon, WR-Quinton Patton, K-Matt Nelson)

Also consider:

Texas A&M (WR-Uzoma Nwachukwu)

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Louisiana Tech (RB-Ray Holley, WRs-DJ Banks, Myles White)

theCFFsite projects: Louisiana Tech 45-42

One-Sided Matchups(Using the odds to find a dominating ‘D’)

Alabama at Missouri

Line:  Alabama -21.5(O/U-43.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Alabama 33-11

Stay away from:

Missouri (RB-Kendial Lawrence)

theCFFsite projects:Alabama 31-13

Illinois at Michigan

Line:  Michigan -23(O/U-49.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Michigan 36-13

Stay away from:

Illinois (QB-Nathan Scheelhaase)

theCFFsite projects: Michigan 31-14

Boston College at Florida St

Line:  Florida St -28(O/U-54)

Projected score based on point spread:  Florida St 41-13

Stay away from:

Boston College (RB-Andre Williams)

theCFFsite projects: Florida St 34-21

Florida Atlantic at Louisiana-Monroe

Line:  Louisiana-Monroe -24(O/U-54)

Projected score based on point spread:  ULM 39-15

Stay away from:

Florida Atlantic (RB-Damian Fortner)

theCFFsite projects:  ULM 38-13

Must Watch Games(The games with the biggest headlines)

Texas vs Oklahoma

Line:  Oklahoma -3(O/U-61.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Oklahoma 32-29

Outlook:  Both teams will be fighting to stay alive in the Big 12 title chase as they square off in this neutral site rivalry game.  We’re expecting the Longhorns to bounce back from last week’s loss to West Virginia by slowing down the Oklahoma offense with a solid defensive performance.

theCFFsite projects:Texas 31-20

USC at Washington

Line:  USC -12.5(O/U-55.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  USC 34-22

Outlook:  One week after knocking off an undefeated Stanford team, the Huskies were embarrassed in a 52-21 loss at Oregon.  Washington should keep the game close, but the big-play ability of Marqise Lee will be the difference in this one.

theCFFsite projects: USC 31-28

Stanford at Notre Dame

Line:  Notre Dame -9(O/U-45.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Notre Dame 27-18

Outlook:  The Irish begin the toughest three-game stretch on their schedule when they host Stanford this weekend.  We don’t think they will win three consecutive games against Stanford, BYU, and Oklahoma, but the Irish should be fresh and healthy enough to squeeze past the Cardinal at home.

theCFFsite projects: Notre Dame 24-21

South Carolina at LSU

Line:  LSU -2.5(O/U-40.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  LSU 21-18

Outlook:  South Carolina demolished an undefeated Georgia squad that was clicking on all cylinders heading into last week’s showdown in Columbia.  Expect the Gamecocks to win the time of possession battle and eventually wear down the Tigers defense with a heavy dose of Marcus Lattimore.

theCFFsite projects:South Carolina 24-17

theCFFsite in Must Watch games:

2012 Season:  Straight Up (12-7)  ATS: (9-10)

2011 Season:  Straight Up (40-9) ATS: (35-14)

By Joe DiSalvo,

Follow Joe DiSalvo on twitter (@theCFFsite)