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College Fantasy Football: Using Vegas Odds to Determine Best Week 8 Plays


In the world of fantasy football, some team owners are relentless in their search for information that will give them a competitive edge over their competition.  Others just simply rely on projections from so-called experts, who try to convince everyone they have devised a computer program that accurately projects player stats by using a scientific formula so complicated that it makes the Drake equation seem elementary.  Eventually, those computer-driven computations prove no more accurate than an old-fashioned gut feeling.  However, in a quest to find a formula for fantasy success, one should just ask the question, “What are the odds?”

Quite simply, Vegas odds could give you all of the necessary insight to make smart roster decisions on a week-to-week basis.  In this weekly article, theCFFsite considers the point spreads and totals(over/under) in order to give our readers a unique perspective into some of the week’s most interesting fantasy matchups.

Week 8

Best Fantasy Matchups(Games with the most fantasy potential)

Ball St at Central Michigan

Line:Ball St -3(O/U-64.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Ball St 34-31

Best plays:

Ball St (QB-Keith Wenning, RB-Jahwan Edwards, WRs-Willie Snead, Jamill Smith

Central Michigan (RB-Zurlon Tipton, WR-Titas Davis)

Also consider:

Ball St (K-Steven Schott)

Central Michigan (QB-Ryan Radcliff, WR-Cody Wilson)

theCFFsite projects:  Ball St 38-28

San Diego St at Nevada

Line:Nevada -7(O/U-66.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Nevada 37-30

Best plays:

San Diego St (QB-Ryan Katz, RB-Adam Muema)

Nevada (QB-Cody Fajardo, RB-Stefphon Jefferson, TE-Zach Sudfield)

Also consider:

San Diego St (RB-Walter Kazee, TE-Gavin Escobar)

Nevada (WRs-Brandon Wimberly, Richy Turner)

theCFFsite projects: Nevada 38-35

Baylor at Texas

Line:Texas -10(O/U-80.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Texas 45-35

Best plays:

Baylor (QB-Nick Florence, WR-Terrance Williams)

Texas (QB-David Ash, RB-Joe Bergeron)

Also consider:

Baylor(RB-Jared Salubi, WRs-Tevin Reese, Lanear Sampson)

Texas (RB-Johnathan Gray, WRs-Jaxon Shipley, Mike Davis)

theCFFsite projects:  Baylor 38-31

One-Sided Matchups (Using the odds to find a dominating ‘D’)

New Mexico St at Utah St

Line:  Utah St -30(O/U-56)

Projected score based on point spread:  Utah St 43-13

Stay away from:

New Mexico St (QB-Andrew Manley)

theCFFsite projects: Utah St 42-14

UNLV at Boise State

Line:  Boise St -28(O/U-53.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Boise St 41-13

Stay away from:

UNLV (RB-Tim Cornett)

theCFFsite projects:Boise St 31-10

Kansas at Oklahoma

Line:  Oklahoma -35(O/U-57.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Oklahoma 46-11

Stay away from:

Kansas (RB-James Sims)

theCFFsite projects: Oklahoma 45-17

Colorado at USC

Line:  USC – 41(O/U-57.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  USC 49-8

Stay away from:

Colorado (RB-Tony Jones)

theCFFsite projects:  USC 45-14

Must Watch Games(The games with the biggest headlines)

Oregon at Arizona St

Line:  Oregon -9(O/U-68.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Oregon 39-30

Outlook:  Since Arizona State’s 24-20 loss at Missouri four weeks ago, the Sun Devils have gone 3-0 in PAC-12 games and have outscored their opponents 115-41.  Interestingly enough, the Ducks have not been held to less than 42 points in any game this season and they should continue their scoring ways in Sun Devil Stadium this Thursday night.

theCFFsite projects: Oregon 41-30

Kansas St at West Virginia

Line:  West Virginia -3(O/U-71.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  West Virginia 37-34

Outlook:  Two weeks ago, we thought the Mountaineers gained their first signature win since joining the Big 12 when they defeated Texas on the road.  However, Oklahoma’s dismantling of the Longhorns last week made the West Virginia victory over Texas seem rather ordinary.  We’re expecting the Mountaineers to regroup and take down the nation’s No. 4 ranked team in a prime-time showdown.

theCFFsite projects: West Virginia 38-34

South Carolina at Florida

Line:  Florida -3(O/U-42.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Florida 23-20

Outlook:  Last week, we underestimated the atmosphere in Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night and picked the Gamecocks over the Tigers.  While it is extremely difficult to pick against the Gators in The Swamp, the Gamecocks will be playing out of desperation to stay alive in the SEC East race.

theCFFsite projects: South Carolina 21-20

theCFFsite in Must Watch games:

2012 Season:  Straight Up (14-9)  ATS: (11-12)

2011 Season:  Straight Up (40-9) ATS: (35-14)

by Joe DiSalvo

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