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College Fantasy Football: Using Vegas Odds to Determine Best Week 9 Plays


In the world of fantasy football, some team owners are relentless in their search for information that will give them a competitive edge over their competition.  Others just simply rely on projections from so-called experts, who try to convince everyone they have devised a computer program that accurately projects player stats by using a scientific formula so complicated that it makes the Drake equation seem elementary.  Eventually, those computer-driven computations prove no more accurate than an old-fashioned gut feeling.  However, in a quest to find a formula for fantasy success, one should just ask the question, “What are the odds?”

Quite simply, Vegas odds could give you all of the necessary insight to make smart roster decisions on a week-to-week basis.  In this weekly article, theCFFsite considers the point spreads and totals(over/under) in order to give our readers a unique perspective into some of the week’s most interesting fantasy matchups.

Week 9

Best Fantasy Matchups(Games with the most fantasy potential)

Baylor at Iowa St

Line:Iowa St -2.5(O/U-71)

Projected score based on point spread:  Iowa St 37-34

Best plays:

Baylor (QB-Nick Florence, WR-Terrance Williams)

Iowa St (WR-Aaron Horne)

Also consider:

Baylor (RB-Jared Salubi, WRs-Tevin Reese, Lanear Sampson)

Iowa St (QB-Jared Barnett, RB-Shontrelle Johnson)

theCFFsite projects:  Baylor 35-28

Nevada at Air Force

Line: Nevada -3(O/U-65.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Nevada 34-31

Best plays:

Air Force (QB-Connor Dietz, RB-Wes Cobb)

Nevada (QB-Cody Fajardo, RB-Stefphon Jefferson, TE-Zach Sudfield)

Also consider:

Air Force (WR-Ty MacArthur)

Nevada (WRs-Brandon Wimberly, Richy Turner)

theCFFsite projects: Nevada 31-30

Central Florida at Marshall

Line:UCF -2.5(O/U-68.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  UCF 36-33

Best plays:

Central Florida (QB-Blake Bortles, RB-Latavius Murray)

Marshall (QB-Rakeem Cato, WRs-Tommy Shuler, Antavious Wilson, TE-Gator Hoskins)

Also consider:

Central Florida (RB-Storm Johnson, WR-JJ Worton)

Marshall (RB-KevinGrooms, WR-Aaron Dobson)

theCFFsite projects:UCF 35-31

USC at Arizona

Line:USC -6.5(O/U-65.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  USC 36-30

Best plays:

USC (QB-Matt Barkley, RB-Silas Redd, WRs-Marqise Lee, Robert Woods)

Arizona (QB-Matt Scott, RB-KaDeem Carey, WR-Austin Hill)

Also consider:

USC (TE-Xavier Grimble, K-Andre Heidari)

Arizona (WR-Dan Buckner)

theCFFsite projects: USC 38-28

One-Sided Matchups(Using the odds to find a dominating ‘D’)

Utah St at Texas-San Antonio

Line:  Utah St -22(O/U-50.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Utah St 36-14

Stay away from:

UTSA (RB-Evans Okotcha)

theCFFsite projects:Utah St 34-10

Memphis at SMU

Line:  SMU -20.5(O/U-48.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  SMU 35-14

Stay away from:

Memphis (RB-Jai Steib)

theCFFsite projects: SMU 42-21

Washington St at Stanford

Line:  Stanford -23.5(O/U-51)

Projected score based on point spread:  Stanford 37-13

Stay away from:

Washington St (QBs-Connor Halliday, Jeff Tuel)

theCFFsite projects:Stanford 30-14

Colorado at Oregon

Line:  Oregon -46(O/U-68.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Oregon 58-11

Stay away from:

Colorado (RB-Tony Jones)

theCFFsite projects: Oregon 58-3

Must Watch Games(The games with the biggest headlines)

Michigan at Nebraska

Line:  Nebraska -2.5(O/U-57.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Nebraska 30-27

Outlook:  This may not be the Nebraska and Michigan of old, but the Big Ten Legends division lead is on the line and the winner has the inside track to the conference title game.

theCFFsite projects:  Nebraska 28-21

Mississippi St at Alabama

Line:  Alabama -24(O/U-48)

Projected score based on point spread:  Alabama 43-12

Outlook:  It seems odd looking at a matchup between two 7-0 teams from the SEC playing in a game with a point spread so high, but the Bulldogs don’t have a signature win on their schedule.  Mississippi State faces a tough five-game slate to close the season and this game may reveal their true identity.

theCFFsite projects: Alabama 31-14

Florida vs Georgia

Line:  Florida -6.5(O/U-48)

Projected score based on point spread:  Florida 27-21

Outlook:  The Gators have the best resume of any team in the country and a win this week will all but assure them a spot in the SEC title game.

theCFFsite projects: Florida 31-21

Notre Dame at Oklahoma

Line:  Oklahoma -10.5(O/U-48.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Oklahoma 30-19

Outlook:  After two consecutive physical wins at home, the Irish must win in Oklahoma to keep their perfect season dreams alive.  The Notre Dame defense will attempt to hold it together one more time as they face their biggest test of the season.

theCFFsite projects:Oklahoma 31-14

theCFFsite in Must Watch games:

2012 Season:  Straight Up (15-11)  ATS: (11-15)

2011 Season:  Straight Up (40-9) ATS: (35-14)

by Joe DiSalvo,

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