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College Fantasy Football: Using Vegas Odds to Determine Best Week 1 Plays


In the world of fantasy football, some team owners are relentless in their search for information that will give them a competitive edge over their competition.  Others just simply rely on projections from so-called experts, who try to convince everyone they have devised a computer program that accurately projects player stats by using a scientific formula so complicated that it makes the Drake equation seem elementary.  Eventually, those computer-driven computations prove no more accurate than an old-fashioned gut feeling.  However, in a quest to find a formula for fantasy success, one should just ask the question, “What are the odds?”

Quite simply, Vegas odds could give you all of the necessary insight to make smart roster decisions on a week-to-week basis.  In this weekly article, theCFFsite considers the point spreads and totals(over/under) in order to give our readers a unique perspective into some of the week’s most interesting fantasy matchups.

Week 1 What are the odds?

Best Fantasy Matchups (Games with the most fantasy potential)

Toledo at Arizona

Line: Arizona -10(O/U-70)

Projected score based on point spread:  Arizona 40-30

Best plays:

Toledo (QB-Terrance Owens, RB-David Fluellen, WR-Bernard Reedy)

Arizona (QB-Matt Scott, RB-KaDeem Carey, WR-Dan Buckner)

theCFFsite projects: Arizona 31-28

San Diego State at Washington

Line: Washington -14.5(O/U-62)

Projected score based on point spread:  Washington 39-24

Best plays:

San Diego St (QB-Ryan Katz, WRs-Colin Lockett, TE-Gavin Escobar)

Washington (QB-Keith Price, WR-Kasen Williams, TE-Austin Seferian-Jenkins)

Also consider:

San Diego St (RBs-Adam Muema, Walter Kazee)

Washington (RBs-Jesse Callier, Bishop Sankey)

theCFFsite projects:Washington 42-28

Troy at UAB

Line:  Troy -5.5 (O/U-60)

Projected score based on point spread:  Troy 33-27

Best plays:

Troy (QB-Corey Robinson, RB-Shawn Southward, WR-Eric Thomas)

UAB (QB-Jonathan Perry, WR-Jackie Williams)

Also consider:

Troy (WR-Chip Reeves)

UAB (RB-Greg Franklin, WR-Patrick Hearn)

theCFFsite projects:Troy 31-28

One-Sided Matchups (Using the odds to find a dominating ‘D’)

Buffalo at Georgia

Line:  Georgia -37.5(O/U-53.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Georgia 45-8

Stay away from:

Buffalo (RB-Branden Oliver)

theCFFsite projects: Georgia 45-9

Bowling Green at Florida

Line:  Florida -29(O/U-48)

Projected score based on point spread:  Florida 39-9

Stay away from:

Bowling Green (QB-Matt Schilz, RB-Anthon Samuel)

theCFFsite projects:Florida 38-10

Central Florida at Akron

Line:UCF -24(O/U-46.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  UCF 35-11

Stay away from:

Akron (RB-Jawon Chisholm)

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theCFFsite projects: UCF 35-14

Kentucky at Louisville

Line:  Louisville -14(O/U-41)

Projected score based on point spread:  Louisville 28-13

Stay away from:

Kentucky (WR-LaRod King)

theCFFsite projects:Louisville 27-14

Hawaii at USC

Line:  USC -39.5(O/U-65)

Projected score based on point spread:  USC 52-13

Stay away from:

Hawaii (All players)

theCFFsite projects: USC 59-15

Arkansas State at Oregon

Line:  Oregon -35.5(O/U-67.5)

Projected score based on point spread: Oregon 52-16

Stay away from:

Arkansas St (QB-Ryan Aplin, RB-David Oku)

theCFFsite projects: Oregon 63-20

Oklahoma at UTEP

Line:  Oklahoma -31(O/U-62)

Projected score based on point spread:  Oklahoma 47-16

Stay away from:

UTEP (RB-Nathan Jeffery)

theCFFsite projects: Oklahoma 59-16

Must Watch Games

Clemson vs Auburn

Line:  Clemson -3(O/U-62)

Projected score based on point spread:  Clemson 33-30

The Tigers will undoubtedly miss the play-making ability of Sammy Watkins, who is serving a two-game suspension.  If Clemson improves on the defensive side of the ball this season, they will emerge as a dark horse title contender.

theCFFsite projects: Clemson 34-24

South Carolina at Vanderbilt

Line:  South Carolina -7(O/U-46)

Projected score based on point spread:  South Carolina 27-20

The Commodores are looking to make a statement at home Thursday night, but the Gamecocks have too much depth and should grab an early lead in the SEC East standings.

theCFFsite projects:South Carolina 31-21

Boise State at Michigan State

Line:  Michigan St -7(O/U-55)

Projected score based on point spread:  Michigan St 20-14

This may be a favorable matchup for the Broncos as the Spartans’ bruising style of play should shorten the game and allow Boise State a chance to hang around long enough to spring an upset. 

theCFFsite projects:  Michigan State 20-17

Michigan vs Alabama

Line:  Alabama -12.5(O/U-42.5)

Projected score based on point spread:  Alabama 28-15

Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson is a special talent, but the Alabama defense will be ready for the challenge.  Expect the Tide to control the lines of scrimmage and wear down the Wolverines in the second half.

theCFFsite projects:Alabama 31-13

theCFFsite in Must Watch games (2011):

Season:  Straight Up (40-9) ATS: (35-14)

The College Fantasy Football Site

By:  Joe DiSalvo

Follow Joe on twitter (@theCFFsite)