Week 11 of the 2013 college football season should play a huge role in shaping the national title picture. With Oregon-Stanford and Oklahoma-Baylor on Thursday, and LSU-Alabama on Saturday, the top 10 could look quite a bit different on Sunday morning.
Even if there are no upsets in the big games this weekend, expect plenty of surprise outcomes from around the nation on Saturday.
Athlon’s editors are back with another edition of the upset picks, and there are plenty of teams on alert this week.
The favorites can't win every game each week, so it's no surprise one of the most popular discussion points every Saturday is upset picks. Each week on AthlonSports.com, the editors will give an upset pick for the upcoming week of action.
College Football Week 11 Upset Predictions
Steven Lassan (@AthlonSteven): Nevada (+9.5) over Colorado State
There are few upset picks that I like this week, but the 9.5 spread caught my attention in this game. Nevada is struggling in the first year under coach Brian Polian, but is Colorado State really 10 points better? The Rams rank last in the Mountain West in pass defense, allowing 309.6 yards per game. Nevada should be able to take advantage of Colorado State’s secondary, especially with quarterback Cody Fajardo and a receiving corps that has three players over 39 catches. Nevada’s defense isn’t much better than Colorado State, as the Wolf Pack rank last in the Mountain West in total yards allowed. The Rams’ rushing offense will test Nevada’s front seven, which has been gashed for 6.4 yards per carry this year. Nevada has never won in Fort Collins, but with both teams averaging over 30 points a game in Mountain West play, this one should be much closer than the spread indicates. And I’ll give the Wolf Pack a slight edge, as Fajardo scores late for the victory.
Mark Ross: Oklahoma (+15) over Baylor
Baylor fans certainly can't say their team isn't getting any respect. A 15-point favorite over the No. 10 team in the nation? If anything, I am taking this one somewhat on principle, as I just don't see the Bears beating the Sooners by more than two touchdowns. While that doesn't mean I don't think Baylor can't beat OU, especially at home, I am going to take the Sooners here because of their defense. Oklahoma is 10th in the country in total defense and has had just one really bad game, the loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry. Yes, Baylor is putting up ridiculous numbers on offense (first in the nation in yards, points and passing) and doing a very good job on defense (15.9 ppg), but the Bears haven't really played anyone either.
Baylor's toughest game so far was at Kansas State, which the Bears won by just 10 points. Including the Wildcats, Baylor's schedule has featured six FBS teams that have a collective average of 64.2 in terms of total offense national rankings. Contrast that to Oklahoma, who has played eight FBS teams that have a collective national offensive ranking of 39.9. Both teams have played and beaten Kansas, Louisiana-Monroe and West Virginia. Baylor's other wins are against Buffalo, Iowa State and Kansas State, while Oklahoma claims victories over Tulsa, Notre Dame (on the road), TCU and Texas Tech. Baylor has yet to play the toughest part of its schedule and by the end of Thursday night, I think there will be one fewer undefeated team in college football.
David Fox (@DavidFox615): BYU (+7.5) over Wisconsin
Wow, this is an odd game. A big-time nonconference opponent heading into Big Ten territory in early November. In many ways, this is a game the Badgers don’t need right now. Wide receiver Jared Abbrederis and linebacker Chris Borland are banged up. Running back Melvin Gordon is coming off a season-low 62 yards against Iowa, a game the Badgers didn’t really pull away to win until Hawkeyes starting quarterback Jake Rudock was hurt. Wisconsin coach Gary Andersen is plenty familiar with BYU, but only to a degree (also, he’s 1-3 against Bronco Mendenhall). BYU has installed one of the fastest offenses in the country this season that’s just hitting its stride. The Cougars amassed 681 yards on 115 plays against Houston and 568 yards on 91 plays against Houston. Throw-in Kyle Van Noy on defense, and this is an awfully tough matchup on both sides of the ball for Wisconsin, possibly the toughest matchup since a loss to Ohio State.
Stephen Schindler (@SteveSchindler): Virginia Tech (+6.5) over Miami
The Hurricanes just lost their best offensive weapon in RB Duke Johnson for the season last week against Florida State. That will be disastrous for an offense that revolves around the No. 2 rusher in the ACC. Johnson has racked up 920 yards and six touchdowns on the season. While Dallas Crawford is a good replacement, he lacks the electric explosiveness of Johnson. The Hokies have lost two straight, but still boast a very good defense that is ninth in the country in points allowed at 16.9. Miami really doesn't enjoy a standard college homefield advantage, thus I don't expect the crowd noise to be a factor. Logan Thomas has been inconsistent this year, but he has played well against the Hurricanes in his career as he threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in the Hokies' 2011 win and rushed for over 100 yards last year. This is a huge game in the Coastal Division of the ACC and will likely determine who will play Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. I like Beamer Ball to come out on top in this one.
Braden Gall (@BradenGall): BYU (+7.5) at Wisconsin
The Badgers consistently struggled with talented and dual-threat quarterbacks. And BYU's Taysom Hill is right next to Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel in terms of raw physical ability. Wisconsin is welcoming back star linebacker Chris Borland but his nagging hamstring injury will be challenged by Hill's ability to run and throw. Additionally, coaches Bronco Mendenhall and Gary Andersen know each very well having coached against each other four times. BYU and Mendenhall won three of those. The Cougars have been challenged all season while the Badgers have played only a couple of tough games — both losses. And the crowd in Madison won't respect BYU like it should and could arrive late and find itself a non-factor.