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College Football Betting Against the Spread: Week 6


Every Friday for entertainment purposes only, I will bring you my top college football picks against the spread. I do not condone, approve or encourage gambling on sports in any way. But if you are a fan of football — college or pro — and you don't think gambling has played a huge role in the growth and popularity of the sport, then you are simply being ignorant. And behind closed doors, the powers that be understand the impact betting has had on the game of football.

2012 Record Against The Spread: 22-17
Last Week: 5-3

Note: All lines are as of date of publication

Michigan State (-15) at Indiana
The Hoosiers lost 55-3 in East Lansing last season and are currently last in the Big Ten this fall in rushing defense after allowing 394 yards last week to Northwestern. Michigan State, however, will enter this game with a chip on its shoulder after the tough loss to Ohio State last fall. The Spartans will have no trouble at all moving the ball behind that big line and Le’Veon Bell, so expect this one to get out of hand fairly quickly. Prediction: Michigan State -15

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Navy (+7.5) at Air Force
The Midshipmen have scored a total of 17 points in three games against FBS competition this fall, including being shutout by San Jose State last week. This isn’t a vintage Navy triple-option attack as it is averaging only 219.3 yards per game rushing. Meanwhile, Air Force’s option is clicking on all cylinders, leading the nation in rushing at 396.3 yards per game. The success of the ground game has helped the Falcons score 37.8 points per game and Navy, who is 1-3 against the number this fall, will have a tough time stopping AFA. Prediction: Air Force -7.5

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UCLA (-2.5) at Cal
This is the type of game that the Bruins have to win if they expect to compete in the Pac-12. The Bruins boast the league’s No. 1 offense at 558.4 yards per game after getting back on track last week with 42 points in Boulder. Meanwhile, Cal only has 535 yards of total offense in its last two Pac-12 games combined. Look for Brett Hundley and Johnathan Franklin to attack and expose the worst rushing defense in the league. The Golden Bears haven’t beaten an FBS team all year and are on the verge of total collapse. Jim Mora is happy to push Cal over the cliff’s edge. Cal is 1-4 against the spread this season. Prediction: UCLA -2.5

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UL Monroe (-3) at Middle Tennessee
Had MTSU been on a bye last week, the point spread on this game could have been in the double digits. Monroe is unbeaten against the spread this fall and Middle Tennessee is coming off of arguably the biggest non-conference win in program history. Expect the Blue Raiders to hang in there for three quarters, but Kolton Browning and company are way too powerful — try 63 points last week and at least 550 yards of offense in three of four games this fall. Prediction: UL Monroe -3

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Mississippi State (-10) at Kentucky
This Bulldogs team leads the nation in turnover margin and that spells trouble for a team that will rotate two freshman quarterbacks. State is allowing only 13.3 points per game and is off to its best start in over a decade, but still have room to improve. Coming off of the bye week, Dan Mullen should have his guys ready to play against the lowly Wildcats. Prediction: Mississippi State -10

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North Texas (+12) at Houston
The Cougars are not a good football team, as losses to Texas State, Louisiana Tech and UCLA indicate. And the win over Rice last week came mostly due to the fact that starting QB Taylor McHargue didn’t play. North Texas should be able to run and could win outright, so I will take the 12 points and run all the way to the bank. Prediction: North Texas +12

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Arizona (+9) at Stanford
Josh Nunes has struggled mightily of late, completely less than half of his passes in each of the last two games. Arizona has lost two straight but has explosive offensive talent and should be able to score points on the edge. Stanford should be able to control the line of scrimmage but there is no reason Arizona can’t win outright against a team lacking in offensive confidence. Take the Cardinal to win outright but the Cats to keep it real close. Prediction: Arizona +9

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Utah State (+6.5) at BYU
The Aggies of Utah State have played a tough schedule and, with the exception of a missed field goal in Madison, should be undefeated. BYU bounced back with a complete performance last week against Hawaii, but Chuckie Keeton and company are a different animal. This could be a low-scoring affair with two underrated defenses taking the field in Provo. Never bet against Gary Andersen, whose team is 5-0 against the spread this fall. Prediction: Utah State +6.5 

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Take the big-game dogs:

Georgia (+2) at South Carolina
West Virginia (+7) at Texas
LSU (-3) at Florida
Nebraska (+3.5) at Ohio State

2012 Trends Against the Spread:

- by Braden Gall

Follow @bradengall

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