College Football Picks: Predicting Every Game in Week 10

The Week 10 edition of picking every game on the college football schedule is highlighted by some pivotal conference games with College Football Playoff implications. The Bedlam battle between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State takes center stage, but Virginia Tech-Miami is an equally important matchup as it likely determines the winner of the ACC Coastal Division. Here is every game on the Week 10 slate:

 

Thursday, Nov. 2

 

Ball State at Eastern Michigan

Eastern Michigan has lost six games. Eastern Michigan is a pretty good team. Yes, both of those statements are accurate. Each of the Eagles’ losses has come by seven points or fewer, including five straight by four points or fewer. Ball State, on the other hand, is not a good team. The Cardinals have lost five straight games, the last four by an average of 42 points. Eastern Michigan 44, Ball State 14

 

Northern Illinois at Toledo

The two best teams in the MAC meet in a game that likely will decide the Western Division title. Both teams are unbeaten in league play. Toledo, however, has played a more difficult schedule and appears to be the better team. Toledo 34, Northern Illinois 20

 

Navy at Temple

Temple has one relatively significant advantage heading into this game: The Owls faced an option team (Army) last week. They did, however, give up 248 rushing yards. Navy 35, Temple 21

 

Idaho at Troy

Troy made national headlines with its 24–21 win at LSU in late September but has been rather ordinary in many of its other games (even with a 6–2 overall record). The Trojans struggled with Akron at home (22–17 win) and followed up their big win at LSU with a 19–8 loss at home to South Alabama. Troy 30, Idaho 20

 

Friday, Nov. 3

 

Marshall at FAU

Marshall had its five-game winning streak snapped with a surprising 41–30 loss at home to surging FIU. Now, the Thundering Herd hit the road to face FAU, another team from South Florida playing very well, in a pivotal game in the C-USA East title race. It’s hard to go against FAU, which has won four straight (by an average of 25 points). FAU 38, Marshall 25

 

Memphis at Tulsa

Memphis hasn’t always played at a high level on a consistent basis — the Tigers struggled in wins over ULM and Southern Illinois and were shut out in the first half of a win over Houston — but this team is very, very good when it’s playing up to its potential. Memphis 48, Tulsa 30

 

UCLA at Utah

Utah is emerging as one of the most disappointing teams in the nation. At 4–4 overall (1–4 in the Pac-12), the Utes will need to win two of their remaining four games to become bowl eligible. Utah has had only two losing records in Kyle Whittingham’s 12 seasons on the job. UCLA 28, Utah 20

 

Saturday, Nov. 4

 

Auburn at Texas A&M

Texas A&M was alarmingly uncompetitive in a 35–14 loss at home to Mississippi State. The Aggies had won five of the previous six, with the only loss by eight points to Alabama. Auburn 34, Texas A&M 17

 

Baylor at Kansas

Neither team has defeated an FBS opponent this season, but Baylor has been far more competitive. The Bears have lost three games by single digits — three more than Kansas, whose closest defeat was by 10 points last week to Kansas State. Baylor 30, Kansas 17

 

East Carolina at Houston

Houston has had a strange season. The Cougars won at Arizona and South Florida but lost at Tulsa by 28 points and lost a 17–0 halftime lead at home to Memphis. Houston 41, East Carolina 17

 

Florida at Missouri

Missouri, which has yet to win an SEC game, is favored over Florida. Think how crazy that would have sounded a month ago. Florida 24, Missouri 20

 

Illinois at Purdue

Purdue’s once-promising season has taken a few bad turns. Just a few weeks ago, the Boilermakers were 3–2 overall, with respectable losses to Louisville and Michigan. Now, they are 3–5 (and losses to Louisville and Michigan aren’t quite as respectable as they once seemed). It’s time to get back on track. Purdue 27, Illinois 10

 

Kansas State at Texas Tech

Kansas State’s four wins have come against Central Arkansas, Charlotte, Baylor and Kansas. Not the most impressive list. But this still has the potential to be a good team; the Wildcats lost one-score games to Vanderbilt, Texas (in OT) and Oklahoma. Texas Tech opened the season with a 4–1 record that included wins over Arizona State and Houston but has since lost three in a row. Texas Tech 34, Kansas State 24

 

Massachusetts at Mississippi State

After starting the season with six straight losses, all by 10 points or fewer, UMass has won two straight, beating Sun Belt foes Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. This week, it’s a Southeastern Conference opponent — and it will not go well. Mississippi State 48, UMass 20

 

Penn State at Michigan State

Penn State must regroup after an agonizing loss at Ohio State — a loss that likely will bump the Nittany Lions from the CFB Playoff picture. Michigan State, too, is coming off a tough loss, 39–31 in triple overtime at Northwestern. Penn State is the better team, but winning in East Lansing is never easy. Penn State 20, Michigan State 17

 

Wisconsin at Indiana

Wisconsin continues to cruise through the softest Big Ten schedule imaginable — the Badgers don’t play Ohio State, Penn State or Michigan State, and they get Michigan, their toughest opponent from the Big Ten East, at home. The Badgers, assuming they win the West, will eventually get their shot at one of the Big Boys from the East … in the league title game. Wisconsin 28, Indiana 17

 

Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is in the midst of a five-game losing streak, but two of the losses came against Alabama and Georgia and the other three were on the road (Florida, Ole Miss and South Carolina). Western Kentucky is 5–3, but the five wins have come against Eastern Kentucky, an FCS school, and four FBS teams ranked 120th or lower in the most recent Athlon Sports national rankings. The Hilltoppers have taken a step back in the post-Jeff Brohm era. Vanderbilt 30, Western Kentucky 17

 

Syracuse at Florida State

Florida State’s season hit rock bottom last Friday night with a 35–3 loss at Boston College. The Seminoles are an unthinkable 2–5 — and still have to play at Clemson and at Florida (though that trip to Gainesville doesn’t appear too intimidating). This team is desperate for a win. Florida State 24, Syracuse 20

 

Appalachian State at ULM

It won’t hurt its standing in the Sun Belt, but Appalachian State suffered a disappointing loss last week, dropping a 30–27 decision at UMass. The Mountaineers are still unbeaten in league play and will be favored to win each of their final four games. Appalachian State 30, ULM 20

 

Georgia State at Georgia Southern

Georgia State has bounced back nicely from its Week 1 loss at home to Tennessee State. The Panthers are 4–3 overall and have a great chance to become bowl-eligible with Georgia Southern and Texas State on the slate in the next two weeks. Georgia State 34, Georgia Southern 13

 

Georgia Tech at Virginia

What’s going on at Virginia? The Cavs emerged as one of the surprise teams in the nation with four straight wins but have since lost to Boston College and Pittsburgh by a combined score of 72–24. Georgia Tech 31, Virginia 21

 

New Mexico State at Texas State

Texas State last week defeated an FBS opponent for the first time since Week 1 of the 2016 season, rolling past Coastal Carolina 27–7. Can the Bobcats make it two straight? The guess here is no. New Mexico State 35, Texas State 17

 

Rice at UAB

UAB continues to be one of the best stories in the nation. The Blazers, who did not play a game the last two seasons, are 5–3 after last week’s impressive 30–12 win at Southern Miss. Bill Clark’s team will become bowl eligible on Saturday. UAB 34, Rice 13

 

Army at Air Force

Jeff Monken has Army bowl eligible for the second-straight season — and the Black Knights still have four games to play. The schedule, to put it kindly, has been soft. The wins have come against Fordham, Buffalo, UTEP, Rice, Eastern Michigan and Temple. So while we can credit Army for winning games, we can also be skeptical about this team’s ability to beat good teams. Air Force 38, Army 24

 

Charlotte at Old Dominion

Old Dominion, which went 7–1 in Conference USA last season, is 0–4 in league play at the midway point. The Monarchs find themselves in the bottom third of the conference in both total offense and total defense. Charlotte is 1–7 on the season but did beat UAB (which is 5–3) two weeks ago. Old Dominion 27, Charlotte 24

 

Clemson at NC State

NC State controls its own destiny in the ACC but has almost no shot at reaching the College Football Playoff due to non-conference losses to South Carolina and Notre Dame. Clemson is still in great shape, but the Tigers’ margin for error remains small (translation: don’t lose again). Clemson 27, NC State 20

 

Iowa State at West Virginia

Iowa State takes its show on the road, where the Cyclones are 3–0 with wins at Akron, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. A defense that has allowed a total of 20 points the last three weeks will be tested by Will Grier and the explosive Mountaineer attack. Iowa State is a great story, but the Cyclones will have a tough time winning in Morgantown. West Virginia 30, Iowa State 20

 

Maryland at Rutgers

Rutgers is showing signs of improvement in Chris Ash’s second season — two Big Ten wins! — but is still struggling to score points. The Knights scored 35 in a win at Illinois but have scored 17 or fewer in their other six games against FBS opponents. Maryland 27, Rutgers 20

 

North Texas at Louisiana Tech

North Texas sits atop the C-USA West standings with a 4–1 record, and the Mean Green have wins over three of four teams in the division with two losses. The other two-loss team is Louisiana Tech, so North Texas can just about wrap up the West title with a win in Ruston. North Texas 30, Louisiana Tech 23

 

Northwestern at Nebraska

Wisconsin has all but wrapped up the Big Ten West title, but second place is up for grabs. And the winner of this game — between 3–2 teams in the Big Ten — will put itself in position to secure the No. 2 spot in the division. Northwestern has won three straight, the last two in overtime. Nebraska 30, Northwestern 24

 

Ohio State at Iowa

Ohio State has played its way back into the national title mix, but there are still several difficult tests for the Buckeyes in the final month of the regular season. Urban Meyer should have no difficulty getting his team ready for this trip to Iowa City. Ohio State 28, Iowa 14

 

South Carolina at Georgia

Georgia earned the No. 1 spot in the initial CFB Playoff Poll on the strength of an undefeated record that is highlighted by an early season win at Notre Dame. The Dawgs should remain in the top spot after an easy win over South Carolina. Georgia 38, South Carolina 13

 

South Florida at Connecticut

South Florida dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten with a loss at home to Houston, but the Bulls still control their own destiny in the AAC East. Beat UCF on Nov. 24, and South Florida will advance to the league title game. South Florida 38, UConn 14

 

Stanford at Washington State

Take a look at Washington State’s points allowed in recent weeks: 10 vs. Oregon, 37 vs. Cal, 0 vs. Colorado and 58 vs. Arizona. Not exactly the most consistent bunch. Stopping Stanford — assuming Bryce Love plays — will be a challenge. Stanford 31, Washington State 23

 

Wake Forest at Notre Dame

The good news for Notre Dame: The Irish are ranked No. 3 in the initial College Football Playoff ranking. The bad news: They still have to play Wake Forest, Miami (Fla.), Navy and Stanford. Notre Dame likely will be favored in all four games, but it will be difficult for the Irish to win them all. Notre Dame 27, Wake Forest 20

 

Cincinnati at Tulane

Cincinnati is one loss away from clinching a losing season for the second straight year — something that hasn’t happened since the late 1990s. Tulane 34, Cincinnati 13

 

Coastal Carolina at Arkansas

It’s been a tough season for Arkansas, but the Hogs will have at least one memorable win on their résumé. Last week, they rallied from a 31–7 deficit to beat Ole Miss 38–37 in Oxford. Arkansas 47, Coastal Carolina 10

 

Louisiana at South Alabama

Both teams are 2–2 in the Sun Belt. Go with the team with the best win. South Alabama beat Troy — the week after Troy won at LSU. South Alabama 34, Louisiana 30

 

Ole Miss at Kentucky

Kentucky reached the six-win mark in gratifying fashion, beating Tennessee for the second time in 33 seasons. Now, the Wildcats are jockeying for bowl position. Ole Miss, even without Shea Patterson at quarterback, is a potent offensive team. Kentucky 30, Ole Miss 27

 

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

The Big 12 race is wide open — four teams are tied atop the standings with a 4–1 record — but this feels like the most significant game of the regular season. The pick is Oklahoma State for two reasons: The Cowboys are home and appear to be a bit more trustworthy on defense. Oklahoma State 34, Oklahoma 30

 

Oregon State at California

Cal has done some nice things in Justin Wilcox’s first season, but the Bears are 1–5 in the conference, and only one of the five defeats was by fewer than 10 points. They should pick up their second league win this weekend, though Oregon State showed some nice fight in a painful loss at home to Stanford last week. California 33, Oregon State 17

 

Utah State at New Mexico

New Mexico, which went 6–2 in the league in 2016, has been a bit of a disappointment in 2017. The Lobos have lost three straight to fall to 3–5 on the season. They will need to beat either Texas A&M or San Diego State on the road to get to six wins. New Mexico 27, Utah State 17

 

Hawaii at UNLV

UNLV is fresh off one of the most surprising results of the 2017 season; the Rebels, having lost three straight games, won at Fresno State, 26–16. Fresno State had won four straight, most notably a 27–3 victory at San Diego State. UNLV 28, Hawaii 20

 

Colorado State at Wyoming

Last week, Colorado State suffered its first loss of the season against a non-Power 5 opponent, dropping a 45–28 decision at home to Air Force. The Rams, who host Boise State in two weeks, still control their own destiny in the Mountain West Mountain Division, but they cannot afford to lose this week in Laramie. Colorado State 21, Wyoming 20

 

Nevada at Boise State

Boise State slipped off the national radar by losing two games in September, but the Broncos have played well over the last month. They’ve won four straight and have not allowed more than 14 points in any game. The winning streak should reach five. Boise State 37, Nevada 20

 

UTSA at FIU

Butch Davis has done a remarkable job in his first season at FIU, guiding the Panthers to a 5–2 record highlighted by last week’s huge win at Marshall. FIU plays four of its final five games at home — but the biggest game, against rival FAU, is on the road. FIU 31, UTSA 24

 

Texas at TCU

Texas is playing as well defensively as any team in the Big 12. The Longhorns held Baylor to seven points last week, Oklahoma to 10 in regulation two weeks ago and Oklahoma to a season-low 29 three weeks ago. I smell upset. Texas 20, TCU 17

 

UCF at SMU

SMU has a huge opportunity to make a statement with UCF, the top Group of 5 team in the nation, coming to Dallas. The Mustangs are 6–2 in Chad Morris’ third season, but nothing on their résumé suggests they are good to beat the mighty Knights. UCF 37, SMU 21

 

Minnesota at Michigan

Michigan climbed to No. 7 in the Coaches Poll after it opened the season with a 4–0 record. Now, a month later, the Wolverines aren’t even ranked in the top 25 of the initial College Football Playoff poll. Minnesota is 1–4 in the first season of the P.J. Fleck era after losing last week at Iowa. Michigan 21, Minnesota 13

 

Southern Miss at Tennessee

Two signs that Tennessee is not having a good season: The Volunteers were a 3.5-point underdog last week to a Kentucky team that had lost to Mississippi State by 35 points the previous weekend, and they are only a 5.5-point favorite at home over a Southern Miss team that lost to UAB by 18 points at home last weekend. Tennessee 30, Southern Miss 14

 

UTEP at Middle Tennessee

It’s been a rough season for Middle Tennessee, which has been forced to play the six weeks without star quarterback Brent Stockstill. It’s unclear if Stockstill will be back this week. It shouldn’t matter against UTEP. Middle Tennessee 28, UTEP 14

 

LSU at Alabama

Alabama leads the nation in league games in both scoring offense and total offense and scoring defense and total defense. LSU is playing well of late, but the Tigers shouldn’t pose too much of a threat to the Crimson Tide — especially in Tuscaloosa. Alabama 34, LSU 13

 

Virginia Tech at Miami (Fla.)

Miami has returned to national relevance in Year 2 of the Mark Richt era thanks to a 7–0 start that has the Hurricanes ranked No. 6 in the Coaches Poll. Despite the undefeated record and the lofty ranking, this is not a team many consider to be a threat to make the College Football Playoff. Virginia Tech heads to South Florida with one blemish on its record — a 31–17 loss to Clemson — but has otherwise played very well. Virginia Tech 27, Miami 20

 

Colorado at Arizona State

Arizona State’s run of solid defensive play ended at two weeks. After giving up a total of 17 points in wins over Washington and Utah, the Sun Devils lost at home to USC 48–17 at home on Saturday. Colorado bounced back from a shutout loss to Washington State by beating Cal 44–28 in Boulder. Arizona State 34, Colorado 31

 

Oregon at Washington

The College Football Playoff committee has not been impressed with Washington. The Huskies are ranked No. 12 despite having a 7–1 record, with each of its seven wins by at least 16 points. The Huskies need to keep winning big. Washington 34, Oregon 14

 

San Diego State at San Jose State

San Jose State let its best opportunity to beat an FBS team slip by last week, losing 41–20 at BYU (a team that had not defeated another FBS team). It’s tough to envision the Spartans beating San Diego State, Nevada, Colorado State or Wyoming. San Diego State 44, San Jose State 7

 

Arizona at USC

USC gave up 497 yards, including 377 on the ground, in a loss at Notre Dame two weeks ago. Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate should put up some gaudy numbers … as usual. The key for Arizona: Can the Wildcats’ defense, which is allowing an average of 38.0 points during its winning streak, slow down USC? USC 41, Arizona 40

 

BYU at Fresno State

BYU did the unthinkable last week: Won a game against an FBS team (San Jose State) and scored 41 points. This week, the quality of the opponent will be far greater. Fresno State 34, BYU 10