College Football: Projecting the 2011 Win Totals
by Steven Lassan (@AthlonSteven on Twitter)
The countdown to kickoff for the 2011 college football season is less than 40 days away. With fall camps opening up in a matter of days, now is another good opportunity to project how the teams will fare this upcoming season.
Athlon has released its top 25 and predictions for all conferences this season, with Oklahoma and Alabama projected to play in the national championship. On Sunday, the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook released its projected win totals for 35 teams. Ohio State and Oregon were not included, largely due to the NCAA investigations at both schools.
Athlon doesn’t condone gambling, but even if you aren’t a fan of Vegas, the weekly lines and numbers are an interesting read for college football fans.
Here’s a look at how the Hilton SuperBook’s projected win totals compare to Athlon’s this season:
Team | Vegas O/U | Athlon's Projection |
Alabama | 10 | 13 |
Arizona State | 8 | 8 |
Arkansas | 8.5 | 9 |
Auburn | 6 | 6 |
Boise State | 10.5 | 11 |
BYU | 8.5 | 8 |
Florida | 7.5 | 9 |
Florida State | 9.5 | 12 |
Georgia | 8.5 | 10 |
LSU | 9.5 | 10 |
Miami | 8 | 9 |
Michigan | 7 | 8 |
Michigan State | 7.5 | 9 |
Mississippi State | 7.5 | 7 |
Missouri | 7.5 | 8 |
Nebraska | 9.5 | 11 |
Nevada | 8 | 8 |
North Carolina | 8 | 7 |
Notre Dame | 8.5 | 10 |
Oklahoma | 10 | 12 |
Oklahoma State | 8.5 | 10 |
Oregon State | 6.5 | 6 |
Penn State | 7.5 | 7 |
South Carolina | 9 | 8 |
Stanford | 9 | 9 |
TCU | 9 | 10 |
Tennessee | 6.5 | 6 |
Texas | 8 | 8 |
Texas A&M | 8.5 | 10 |
UNLV | 2.5 | 3 |
USC | 7.5 | 9 |
Utah | 7.5 | 7 |
Virginia Tech | 10 | 11 |
West Virginia | 9.5 | 10 |
Wisconsin | 9.5 | 11 |
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As you can see, there are some differences between Athlon and the Hilton SuperBook's picks. The SuperBook sets its projected total on Notre Dame at 8.5, while Athlon likes the Irish to win 10 games.
Texas A&M is also notable, as Athlon has the Aggies projected to get 10 wins, while the SportsBook has them at 8.5.
Florida State is another team that caught my attention. Athlon projects 12 wins in Jimbo Fisher's second year, while the SuperBook sets the over/under at 9.5.
With significant personnel losses, defending national champ Auburn did not make Athlon's top 25 for 2011 and is projected to barely make a bowl game with six wins. The SuperBook seems to be of the same belief, setting the Tigers over/under total at six.
What does it all mean? Nothing other than some summer reading to pass the time until kickoff.
Below are all of Athlon's projected win totals for 2011.
Projected Wins | |
Florida State | 12 |
Virginia Tech | 11 |
Miami | 9 |
NC State | 9 |
Maryland | 8 |
North Carolina | 7 |
Boston College | 6 |
Clemson | 6 |
Georgia Tech | 6 |
Virginia | 5 |
Duke | 4 |
Wake Forest | 2 |
| |
West Virginia | 10 |
South Florida | 8 |
Syracuse | 8 |
Pittsburgh | 7 |
Cincinnati | 7 |
Connecticut | 6 |
Rutgers | 6 |
Louisville | 5 |
| |
Nebraska | 11 |
Wisconsin | 11 |
Michigan State | 9 |
Ohio State | 8 |
Penn State | 8 |
Iowa | 8 |
Michigan | 8 |
Illinois | 7 |
Northwestern | 6 |
Purdue | 5 |
Minnesota | 4 |
Indiana | 4 |
| |
Oklahoma | 12 |
Texas A&M | 10 |
Oklahoma State | 10 |
Texas | 8 |
Missouri | 8 |
Texas Tech | 7 |
Baylor | 6 |
Iowa State | 4 |
Kansas State | 4 |
Kansas | 3 |
| |
Oregon | 12 |
Stanford | 9 |
USC | 9 |
Arizona State | 8 |
Washington | 7 |
Utah | 7 |
Oregon State | 6 |
Arizona | 6 |
California | 5 |
UCLA | 4 |
Washington State | 3 |
Colorado | 3 |
| |
Alabama | 13 |
Georgia | 10 |
LSU | 10 |
Arkansas | 9 |
Florida | 9 |
South Carolina | 8 |
Mississippi State | 7 |
Tennessee | 6 |
Kentucky | 6 |
Auburn | 6 |
Ole Miss | 5 |
Vanderbilt | 3 |
| |
SMU | 10 |
UCF | 9 |
Houston | 9 |
Southern Miss | 9 |
Tulsa | 6 |
East Carolina | 6 |
UAB | 5 |
Rice | 4 |
Marshall | 4 |
Tulane | 3 |
UTEP | 2 |
Memphis | 1 |
| |
Toledo | 9 |
Ohio | 8 |
Northern Illinois | 7 |
Western Michigan | 6 |
Miami | 6 |
Temple | 6 |
Kent State | 5 |
Bowling Green | 5 |
Central Michigan | 4 |
Eastern Michigan | 4 |
Ball State | 3 |
Buffalo | 2 |
Akron | 2 |
| |
Boise State | 11 |
TCU | 10 |
Air Force | 9 |
San Diego State | 7 |
Colorado State | 6 |
Wyoming | 4 |
UNLV | 3 |
New Mexico | 2 |
| |
Troy | 7 |
FIU | 7 |
Arkansas State | 7 |
UL Monroe | 5 |
MTSU | 5 |
North Texas | 4 |
Western Kentucky | 4 |
UL Lafayette | 3 |
FAU | 1 |
Athlon's 2011 WAC Predictions |
|
Hawaii | 10 |
Nevada | 8 |
Fresno State | 7 |
Louisiana Tech | 6 |
Idaho | 4 |
Utah State | 4 |
San Jose State | 2 |
New Mexico State | 1 |
Independents |
|
Notre Dame | 10 |
BYU | 8 |
Navy | 7 |
Army | 6 |
