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College Football: Projecting the 2011 Win Totals

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by Steven Lassan (@AthlonSteven on Twitter)

The countdown to kickoff for the 2011 college football season is less than 40 days away. With fall camps opening up in a matter of days, now is another good opportunity to project how the teams will fare this upcoming season.

Athlon has released its top 25 and predictions for all conferences this season, with Oklahoma and Alabama projected to play in the national championship. On Sunday, the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook released its projected win totals for 35 teams. Ohio State and Oregon were not included, largely due to the NCAA investigations at both schools.

Athlon doesn’t condone gambling, but even if you aren’t a fan of Vegas, the weekly lines and numbers are an interesting read for college football fans.

Here’s a look at how the Hilton SuperBook’s projected win totals compare to Athlon’s this season:

Team

Vegas O/U

Athlon's Projection

Alabama

10

13

Arizona State

8

8

Arkansas

8.5

9

Auburn

6

6

Boise State

10.5

11

BYU

8.5

8

Florida

7.5

9

Florida State

9.5

12

Georgia

8.5

10

LSU

9.5

10

Miami

8

9

Michigan

7

8

Michigan State

7.5

9

Mississippi State

7.5

7

Missouri

7.5

8

Nebraska

9.5

11

Nevada

8

8

North Carolina

8

7

Notre Dame

8.5

10

Oklahoma

10

12

Oklahoma State

8.5

10

Oregon State

6.5

6

Penn State

7.5

7

South Carolina

9

8

Stanford

9

9

TCU

9

10

Tennessee

6.5

6

Texas

8

8

Texas A&M

8.5

10

UNLV

2.5

3

USC

7.5

9

Utah

7.5

7

Virginia Tech

10

11

West Virginia

9.5

10

Wisconsin

9.5

11

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As you can see, there are some differences between Athlon and the Hilton SuperBook's picks. The SuperBook sets its projected total on Notre Dame at 8.5, while Athlon likes the Irish to win 10 games.

Texas A&M is also notable, as Athlon has the Aggies projected to get 10 wins, while the SportsBook has them at 8.5.

Florida State is another team that caught my attention. Athlon projects 12 wins in Jimbo Fisher's second year, while the SuperBook sets the over/under at 9.5.

With significant personnel losses, defending national champ Auburn did not make Athlon's top 25 for 2011 and is projected to barely make a bowl game with six wins. The SuperBook seems to be of the same belief, setting the Tigers over/under total at six.

What does it all mean? Nothing other than some summer reading to pass the time until kickoff.

Below are all of Athlon's projected win totals for 2011.

Athlon's 2011 ACC Predictions

Projected Wins

Florida State

12

Virginia Tech

11

Miami

9

NC State

9

Maryland

8

North Carolina

7

Boston College

6

Clemson

6

Georgia Tech

6

Virginia

5

Duke

4

Wake Forest

2

Athlon's 2011 Big East Predictions

 

West Virginia

10

South Florida

8

Syracuse

8

Pittsburgh

7

Cincinnati

7

Connecticut

6

Rutgers

6

Louisville

5

Athlon's 2011 Big Ten Predictions

 

Nebraska

11

Wisconsin

11

Michigan State

9

Ohio State

8

Penn State

8

Iowa

8

Michigan

8

Illinois

7

Northwestern

6

Purdue

5

Minnesota

4

Indiana

4

Athlon's 2011 Big 12 Predictions

 

Oklahoma

12

Texas A&M

10

Oklahoma State

10

Texas

8

Missouri

8

Texas Tech

7

Baylor

6

Iowa State

4

Kansas State

4

Kansas

3

Athlon's 2011 Pac-12 Predictions

 

Oregon

12

Stanford

9

USC

9

Arizona State

8

Washington

7

Utah

7

Oregon State

6

Arizona

6

California

5

UCLA

4

Washington State

3

Colorado

3

Athlon's 2011 SEC Predictions

 

Alabama

13

Georgia

10

LSU

10

Arkansas

9

Florida

9

South Carolina

8

Mississippi State

7

Tennessee

6

Kentucky

6

Auburn

6

Ole Miss

5

Vanderbilt

3

Athlon's 2011 C-USA Predictions

 

SMU

10

UCF

9

Houston

9

Southern Miss

9

Tulsa

6

East Carolina

6

UAB

5

Rice

4

Marshall

4

Tulane

3

UTEP

2

Memphis

1

Athlon's 2011 MAC Predictions

 

Toledo

9

Ohio

8

Northern Illinois

7

Western Michigan

6

Miami

6

Temple

6

Kent State

5

Bowling Green

5

Central Michigan

4

Eastern Michigan

4

Ball State

3

Buffalo

2

Akron

2

Athlon's 2011 Mountain West Predictions

 

Boise State

11

TCU

10

Air Force

9

San Diego State

7

Colorado State

6

Wyoming

4

UNLV

3

New Mexico

2

Athlon's 2011 Sun Belt Predictions

 

Troy

7

FIU

7

Arkansas State

7

UL Monroe

5

MTSU

5

North Texas

4

Western Kentucky

4

UL Lafayette

3

FAU

1

Athlon's 2011 WAC Predictions

 

Hawaii

10

Nevada

8

Fresno State

7

Louisiana Tech

6

Idaho

4

Utah State

4

San Jose State

2

New Mexico State

1

Independents

 

Notre Dame

10

BYU

8

Navy

7

Army

6