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College Football's Post-Week 7 Playoff Projection

Dan Mullen

Dan Mullen

The new college football playoff format has added even more intrigue to the 2014 season. Instead of figuring out the top two teams in early December, the focus has shifted to finding four teams to play in the first FBS postseason playoff format.

To help select the four playoff teams, a 13-person committee was picked, which includes names like Barry Alvarez, Oliver Luck, Pat Haden and Jeff Long, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former coach Tyrone Willingham.

Each week, Athlon Sports hopes to replicate the playoff committee’s work by asking some of college football’s top media members to vote on their top eight teams. The official playoff committee will release its rankings starting on Oct. 28, but this poll will attempt to project how the playoff picture stacks up after each week until the end of the year.

Expert Panel

Bobby Bowden (@TheBobbyBowden), Legends Poll
Gene Stallings, (@LegendsPoll), Legends Poll
Don Nehlen (@LegendsPoll), Legends Poll
Steven Lassan (@AthlonSteven), Athlon Sports
Braden Gall (@BradenGall), Athlon Sports
Zac Ellis (@ZacEllis), Sports Illustrated
David Fox (@DavidFox615), Athlon Sports
Mark Ennis (@MarkEnnis), CardChronicle.com
Teddy Mitrosilis (@TMitrosilis), Fox Sports

Steven Godfrey (@38Godfrey), SBNation.com
Matt Brown (@MattBrownCFB), SportsonEarth.com
Rich Cirminiello (@RichCirminiello), Campus Insiders
Brad Crawford (@BCrawfordSDS), SaturdayDownSouth.com
Allen Kenney (@BlatantHomerism), BlatantHomerism.com
Chris Anderson (@CMAnderson247), Eersports.com
Kyle Kensing (@kensing45), CFBHuddle.com
Adam Powell (@ACCSports), ACCSports.com
Mitch Light (@AthlonMitch) Athlon Sports
Josh Ward (@Josh_Ward), MrSEC.com
Kevin McGuire (@KevinonCFB), CollegeFootballTalk.com
Mark Ross (@AthlonMarkR), Athlon Sports

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Post-Week 7 Playoff Projection

Rank

Team

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Total

1

Mississippi State 

16

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

163

2

Ole Miss 

2

8

10

1

0

0

0

0

137

3

Florida State 

3

7

8

3

0

0

0

0

136

4

Baylor 

0

1

3

11

5

0

0

1

101

5

Notre Dame 

0

0

0

5

9

3

1

1

73

6

Auburn 

0

0

0

1

3

12

2

1

58

7

Oregon 

0

0

0

0

0

6

3

6

30

8

Alabama 

0

0

0

0

2

0

7

4

26

9

Michigan State 

0

0

0

0

2

0

3

3

17

10

TCU 

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

3

7

11

Ohio State 

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

4

12

Oklahoma 

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

3

13

Georgia 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

Takeaways from Expert Poll Results


* Mississippi State recorded 16 of the 21 first-place votes.

* Florida State ranked second with three-first place votes, but Ole Miss edged the Seminoles for the No. 2 spot in the rankings due to eight second-place votes and 10 third-place votes.

* For the third consecutive week, the voting panel has identified a clear top four: Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Florida State and Baylor.

* Notre Dame is a distant No. 5 to Baylor, and the Fighting Irish are just 15 points ahead of a one-loss team (Auburn).

* Oregon is the only Pac-12 team receiving consideration in the post-Week 7 poll. The Ducks rank No. 7 after defeating UCLA 42-30.

* The SEC has five teams receiving consideration in this week’s expert poll. The Big 12 ranks second with three teams receiving votes.

* Through three committee votes, Florida State is the only team to rank among the top four teams in each poll.


Group of 5 Rankings


(One team from the Group of 5 conferences - American Athletic, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt - will play in one of college football's premier (New Year's Bowls) each season.

1. East Carolina
Record:
5-1

The Pirates started slow but pulled away from USF for a 28-17 win. East Carolina is the clear favorite for the top spot from the Group of Five teams, but this team will be tested in early November with road trips to Temple and Cincinnati.

2. Marshall
Record:
6-0

Another week, another blowout victory for Marshall. The Thundering Herd defeated MTSU 49-24 to improve to 6-0. Strength of schedule is the biggest obstacle for Doc Holliday’s team, and barring a loss by East Carolina, Marshall is probably on the outside for the Group of 5 spot. November games against Rice and at UAB are the Thundering Herd’s biggest remaining challenges.

3. Boise State
Record:
4-2

Boise State had a bye in Week 7 and returns to action on Friday night against Fresno State. The Broncos will have a chance to improve their standing in this ranking in the second half of the season, as games against BYU and Utah State are opportunities for good wins.

4. Colorado State
Record:
5-1

The Rams survived a late rally by Nevada to win 31-24. Jim McElwain’s team has won four in a row since losing to Boise State and hosts Utah State in a key Mountain West showdown this Saturday.

5. Utah State
Record:
4-2

The Aggies make their first appearance of the year in the Group of 5 rankings thanks to a 34-16 win over Air Force in Week 7. Utah State could move up these rankings with a win over Colorado State on Saturday.

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Key Games With Playoff Implications in Week 8


Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh (Thursday)
7:30 p.m. ET


Each Virginia Tech win helps to bolster East Carolina’s resume for the top spot in the Group of 5 rankings. This is also a key game for the Coastal Division.

Baylor at West Virginia
Noon ET, Fox Sports 1


Two years ago, these teams accounted for 133 points in Morgantown. Expect more fireworks once again this Saturday, as Baylor hopes to avoid a letdown in a tough road environment. 

Kansas State at Oklahoma
Noon ET, ESPN


Oklahoma needs a win to keep within distance of TCU and Baylor in the Big 12. With a win over the Sooners, Kansas State has a chance to move into consideration for the top spot in the league.

Texas A&M at Alabama
3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Back-to-back losses have knocked Texas A&M out of the SEC West title picture, and the schedule won’t get easier with a trip to Tuscaloosa. Alabama struggled in last week’s 14-13 win over Arkansas. Can the Crimson Tide offense get back on track?

Georgia at Arkansas
4 p.m. ET, SEC Network


The Razorbacks are close to a breakthrough win in SEC play under second-year coach Bret Bielema. Can Arkansas play spoiler this Saturday? Or will Georgia continue to survive without running back Todd Gurley?

Oklahoma State at TCU
4 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1


The Cowboys are quietly 5-1, but this team hasn’t faced a quality opponent since the opener against Florida State. TCU is looking to rebound after blowing a 58-37 lead against Baylor in Week 7.

Missouri at Florida
7 p.m. ET, ESPN2


Neither team is in contention for a spot in college football’s playoff, but this is a critical game for positioning in the SEC East.

Notre Dame at Florida State
8 p.m. ET, ABC


Were the Fighting Irish looking ahead in last week’s sluggish performance against North Carolina? Florida State has yet to play its best game in 2014, and with the young talent on both sides of the ball, this team can get better as the season progresses.

Washington at Oregon
8 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1


Will Oregon’s offensive line contain an aggressive Washington front seven? The Huskies have a chance to get a marquee win under first-year coach Chris Petersen.

Stanford at Arizona State
10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN


Arizona State won’t have Taylor Kelly, but Mike Bercovici is a capable quarterback. Stanford’s offense is still a work in progress, but the defense is one of the best in the nation.