The 2012 college football season ended with another SEC Championship. And the SEC’s run of dominance probably won’t end in 2013, as Alabama returns most of its core and is a heavy favorite to win the national title.
While the Crimson Tide isn’t likely to see a drop in its win total, there are a few teams poised to see a decrease in victories in 2013.
While Florida State should be one of college football’s top 20 teams next year, the Seminoles will struggle to win the conference title (and record 12 victories) with Tajh Boyd returning to Clemson for his senior year.
Bill Snyder will reload at Kansas State but asking the Wildcats to repeat as Big 12 champions in 2013 is simply unrealistic.
LSU is losing 11 players early to the NFL Draft and still needs more production from quarterback Zach Mettenberger.
These five teams aren’t on the decline for the long haul, but they will have trouble matching their win totals from 2012.
Five College Football Teams on the Decline for 2013
While the Seminoles met most preseason expectations with a 12-win season and an ACC Championship, matching those totals in 2013 will be difficult. EJ Manuel wasn’t an All-American quarterback, but he did throw for 41 touchdowns over the last two seasons. While Clint Trickett or Jameis Winston will need some time to learn the ropes as a full-time starter, the rest of the offense should be solid, especially with the return of Devonta Freeman and James Wilder Jr. at running back. The defense finished 2012 ranked second nationally in yards allowed but will struggle to reach that mark in 2013. The line loses talented ends Bjoern Werner and Brandon Jenkins and must replace standout cornerback Xavier Rhodes. New coordinator Jeremy Pruitt is regarded as an excellent recruiter but has not called the plays on the collegiate level. Florida State isn’t going to fall out of the top 25, but the Seminoles will have trouble matching 12 wins and an ACC title next season.
There’s a very simple rule to follow when making predictions for the upcoming Big 12 season: Never count out the Wildcats as long as Bill Snyder is on the sidelines in Manhattan. Although Snyder is one of college football’s top coaches, Kansas State has a lot of personnel losses to overcome if it wants to repeat as Big 12 champions. Heisman finalist Collin Klein will be missed at quarterback, while receiver Chris Harper also departs after leading the team with 58 catches in 2012. While the offense shouldn't suffer much of a drop in production with one of the Big 12's top offensive lines and running back John Hubert returning, the defense is another story. The Wildcats are losing a handful of key players, including end Meshak Williams, linebacker Arthur Brown and cornerback Nigel Malone. Expect another bowl berth for Kansas State in 2013 but another conference title is out of reach.
No team has been impacted by the NFL Draft’s early entry deadline quite like LSU. The Tigers lost 11 players, including defensive linemen Barkevious Mingo, Bennie Logan and Sam Montgomery, along with cornerback Tharold Simon and safety Eric Reid. Although LSU always recruits top talent, it will be difficult to replace the departing talent in just one offseason. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger showed some progress at the end of the year but needs to shoulder more of the offensive workload in 2013. Defensive coordinator John Chavis is regarded as one of the best in the nation but will have his hands full with a rebuilt line, the departure of linebacker Kevin Minter and two starters leaving from the secondary. LSU will be a top-15 team in 2012 but contending for a BCS bowl or SEC West title is unlikely.
The Sooners have been one of college football’s most consistent winners since Bob Stoops arrived in Norman. Since 2000, Oklahoma has only two seasons of less than 10 wins and has won 32 games over the last three years. After losing 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl to Texas A&M, Stoops and his staff have been heavily criticized, especially for a defense that allowed 192.2 rushing yards per game and finished 64th nationally in yards allowed. There’s no shortage of talent in Norman, but Oklahoma will have trouble recording a double-digit win total in 2013. Quarterback Landry Jones is gone, and there’s plenty of uncertainty about who emerges as the new No. 1 passer. Blake Bell has shown promise in a limited role, but can he be the full-time quarterback? Considering the defense loses at least seven starters, it may take half of the season for Oklahoma to find the right pieces on that side of the ball. The Sooners aren’t going to fall out of the top 25, but it’s hard to envision this team winning a Big 12 title next year or matching the 10 victories from 2012.
The Scarlet Knights were on the doorstep of winning the Big East title in 2012 but lost in what was a de facto Big East title game to Louisville in the regular season finale. First-year coach Kyle Flood did a good job of keeping continuity from Greg Schiano’s tenure, but Rutgers lost its last three games and struggled to establish its offense. Flood will be tested even more in 2013, as the Scarlet Knights lose seven starters on defense, including standout linebacker Khaseem Greene and cornerback Logan Ryan. The offense must replace running back Jawan Jamison and needs to get quarterback Gary Nova back on track after a disappointing finish. The Big East isn’t a deep league in 2013, so the Scarlet Knights could be picked by most to finish as one of the conference’s top four teams. However, Rutgers may not reach nine victories in his final season of Big East play next year.
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