College football’s 2014 season is officially in the books. The new four-team playoff was a success, and the new postseason format resulted in Ohio State claiming a 42-20 win over Oregon in the national championship. While the title celebration won’t stop in Columbus anytime soon, there are a handful of teams examining what’s next after key personnel departures.
Florida State and Oregon were playoff teams in 2014, but both programs have to overcome a lot of personnel question marks to reach that mark next year. The Seminoles and Ducks are due for a small step back in the win column in 2015. However, don’t expect either to disappear as a national contender in future years. There’s enough young talent and a track record at both programs to suggest any dip in the win total will be short-lived. On the flipside, Iowa is a program that seems stale. Can Kirk Ferentz find the right answers to get the program back on track?
While kickoff for the 2015 season is still months away, it’s never too early to start looking at rosters, depth charts and coaching changes for teams poised to fall in the rankings or struggle to match their 2014 win total next year.
5 CFB Teams Likely to See Their Win Total Decline in 2015
File Florida State and Oregon in this column as obvious mentions. It’s simply hard to maintain a high level of success with significant personnel departures, especially after losing the likely No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. The Seminoles have 39 victories over the last three seasons and have won at least nine games in each of coach Jimbo Fisher’s five years in Tallahassee. There’s little doubt Florida State will be back in contention for a playoff bid in the future, but without Jameis Winston, four new starters on the line and receiver Rashad Greene, there’s a transition period coming for the Seminoles on offense next year. And the Seminoles have work to do on defense, as this unit took a step back on the stat sheet in 2014 and must replace tackle Eddie Goldman, end Mario Edwards Jr. and cornerbacks P.J. Williams and Ronald Darby. Florida State is Athlon’s early favorite to win the ACC Atlantic next year. However, the Seminoles will take a small step back in the overall landscape and miss out on a playoff bid with the turnover on the depth chart.
Bill Snyder is one of college football’s top coaches, and it’s always risky to count out the Wildcats in any preseason prediction. But as we turn the page from 2014 to 2015, Kansas State has some major personnel losses. The prolific combination of quarterback Jake Waters and receiver Tyler Lockett have expired their eligibility, and the offense also must replace standout center B.J. Finney and receiver Curry Sexton. The defense loses All-Big 12 end Ryan Mueller, linebacker Jonathan Truman and defensive back Randall Evans. Mueller led the team with 11 tackles for a loss, while Truman paced all defenders with 128 stops. Evans picked recorded four picks and defended 14 passes in 2014. There’s still a solid core of players returning to Manhattan next season but winning at least eight games for the fourth consecutive year might be too much to ask with the departure of a handful of key seniors. Don’t count out Snyder’s team, but K-State is set for a small regression in wins next year.
There was plenty of optimism in Iowa City coming into the 2014 season. The Hawkeyes returned 11 starters from a team that won four out of its last six games in 2013. Additionally, the offensive and defensive lines were pegged as two of the best in the Big Ten, and quarterback Jake Rudock was coming off a solid performance (2,383 yards, 18 TDs). The schedule featured home dates against Wisconsin and Nebraska, and coach Kirk Ferentz’s team missed Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State in crossover play. Instead of capitalizing on a favorable slate, Iowa backtracked in 2014. The Hawkeyes finished 7-6 and lost five out of its final seven games. None of Iowa’s seven victories came against a FBS team with a winning record, and Tennessee thoroughly dominated the Hawkeyes in the TaxSlayer Bowl (45-28). While the Hawkeyes have surprised when low expectations surrounded this team, Ferentz and this staff have to replace standout left tackle Brandon Scherff, receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley and defensive standouts Carl Davis (DT), Louis Trinca-Pasat (DT) and safety John Lowdermilk. Improving from the seven-win mark isn’t unrealistic with a favorable schedule, but it’s also hard to expect a significant jump in wins after finishing with just one winning mark in Big Ten play since 2010. Has this program simply gone too stale under Ferentz?
As we mentioned with Florida State, it’s almost too obvious to mention Oregon here. No, the Ducks aren’t going to drastically fall off in 2015, but it’s going to be difficult to contend for a playoff spot with quarterback Marcus Mariota leaving for the NFL. Coach Mark Helfrich and coordinator Scott Frost will spend most of the preseason identifying a favorite under center and retooling a line that loses standouts Jake Fisher (OT) and center Hroniss Grasu. The defense played better in the second half of the season, but coordinator Don Pellum has a few areas to address this spring. The line loses end Arik Armstead, and the secondary must replace cornerbacks Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and Troy Hill, linebacker Tony Washington and safety Erick Dargan. The Ducks should be the favorite in the Pac-12 North next season, but this team likely slides from playoff contention into the 7-15 range in most preseason polls.
The Gamecocks were considered by some to be the favorite in the SEC East in 2014, but this program backtracked after recording three consecutive seasons of at least 11 wins. A win over Miami prevented South Carolina from its first losing record since 2003. While coach Steve Spurrier is one of the nation’s best, this program has a ton of personnel issues heading into 2015 and a turnaround in the win column may have to wait a year. Quarterback Dylan Thompson, running back Mike Davis, and offensive linemen Corey Robinson (LT) and A.J. Cann (LG) leave big shoes to fill on offense. The defense struggled mightily, giving up 6.2 yards per play and allowing 36.8 points per game in SEC contests. Youth played a part in South Carolina’s defensive struggles in 2014 and most of the depth chart returns next season, providing hope for a turnaround on the stat sheet. On the positive side, the Gamecocks are set to ink their fifth consecutive top 20 signing class – with a few critical defensive prospects – in early February. It’s hard to count out a Spurrier-coached team. But with Tennessee and Florida improving, South Carolina’s road to another East Division title (and improvement in the win column) just got tougher.